How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

And the Russian arms industry spirals down the drain: 

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/02/13/rossiya-teryaet-krupneishego-pokupatelya-oruzhiya-indiya-zamorozila-peregovori-po-vertoletam-i-samoletam-a33902

I mean, apart from cheap oil, why on earth would anyone want to trade with Putinist Russia.

As for their arms industry, people are wising up to the fact that they are not even second rate products on sale.

I expect there will be a big boost in Western sales of military items ... like Korea and Poland, for example.

[Erwin]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Makes you wonder...if true.

 

 

 

Well... The US is an oil producer and could be independent, but for some reason it has to import oil:  The top five sources of U.S. crude oil imports for November were Canada (3.8 million b/d), Mexico (490,000 b/d), Saudi Arabia (440,000 b/d), Iraq (265,000 b/d), and Colombia (205,000 b/d). 

So...

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Well missing a few facts though.  As strategic ISR platforms these ballon’s have been a complete failure because we are all talking about them.

Nah. That is a non sequitor. And we and other nations talk about each others’ intelligence satellites in the open, often. But I get it! You have very good reasons for your couching of your analysis in this way. And you may be right! You’ve underscored that you don’t see their persistent method as useful in any way, end of story, without acknowledging the normal caution that we do not know what *they* think. But we ought not to entirely substitute OUR reasoning for the Chinese. Or exclusively for any enemy. Too rigid. BIG CAVEAT: you actually DO know what they are thinking and therefore why they are continuing this long term surveillance program, and that in that light it *is* a failure -  but cannot say that, even unofficially. That would be understandable and trump the normal caution. 

Edited February 14, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

now we insult the twits?

We call them twats, but thats just semantics.

[DesertFox]

22 minutes ago, paxromana said:

I mean, apart from cheap oil, why on earth would anyone want to trade with Putinist Russia.

Earn Money. That makes the World go round. You know?

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

first we insult the morons, now we insult the twits?  Next we'll be trashing the village idiots. this has got to stop.

How about an annoying Yard Gnome?

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

A good speculation is that if China needs a payload the size of a school bus to do SIGINT then we have likely over estimated their technological abilities in this area.

Just as I suggested earlier. And why they need a cheaper platform that augments their satellite takes.

2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Or maybe their satellites aren’t as advanced as ours.

 

[rocketman]

8 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

How about an annoying Yard Gnome?

No, that one is reserved for Kadyrov.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 minute ago, rocketman said:

No, that one is reserved for Kadyrov.

&*#$ it! Then how about, “Burned out lamp post light”?

[akd]

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

but for some reason it has to import oil

the US is also a major refiner of oil, but I don’t think the world sells its food to Iran to be turned into boxed meals.

Edited February 14, 2023 by akd

[Jiggathebauce]

https://lefteast.org/it-is-always-darkest-before-the-dawn-how-russian-anarchists-today-struggle-for-revolution/

Really interesting interview with anarchists in Russia who are sabotaging railways(sharing recipes on their telegram even) and firebombing recruitment centers. 

Quote

...52 attacks were carried on from the summer until November 2022 and 48% of arsonist-activists were not found.

You'll also find that their analysis of conditions in Russia echoes a lot of what has been discussed in this forum, as well as being sober in realizing that getting consensus for a different future is difficult.

Quote

Among the specifics of Russian imperialism we can perhaps name internal colonialism. The central regions act as collective exploiters of the periphery. In doing so, conditions are created for the outflow of the most active people to the center. This leads to a paradoxical situation. On the one hand, Moscow and St. Petersburg are the most active in terms of protests, while on the other hand, they have greater wealth, giving their protests an elitist nature. They demand goods of a higher order (fair elections, freedom of speech, etc.) rather than the solution of everyday economic problems, and therefore most people are less willing to take radical action for their sake. These protests are also less likely to be understood and supported in the regions.

 

Also, a certain specificity of struggle with the state is set by the Soviet past and the 1990s. What people considered good or trash about the Soviet past varies depending on an individual’s experience. This makes it difficult to build a unifying picture of a “beautiful future” that could enthuse people and bring them together.

 

https://commons.com.ua/en/im-ukrainian-socialist-heres-why-i-resist-russian-invasion/

 

And here is the article I referred to earlier, it's by a Ukrainian TDF member. Some of the choicest bits-

Quote

We often criticize the actions of the Ukrainian government and the way defense is organized. But they do not question the necessity of resistance and understand well why and for what we are fighting.

Quote

Perhaps most striking about many of these debates about the Russian-Ukrainian war is the ignoring of the opinion of Ukrainians. Ukrainians are still often presented in some left-wing discussions either as passive victims who should be sympathized with or as Nazis who should be condemned. But the far right makes up a clear minority of the Ukrainian resistance, while the absolute majority of Ukrainians support the resistance and do not want to be just passive victims.

The following three paragraphs outline his thoughts on Zelensky,  offer a counter to accusations around Ukraine's language policies, and acknowledge that should he fail, worse movements and actors will take his place 

Quote

Zelensky’s government, of course, is neoliberal. Ukrainian leftists and trade unionists have organized extensively against his social and economic policies. However, in terms of war and nationalism, Zelensky is the most moderate politician who could have come to power in Ukraine after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the start of the war in Donbas.

There’s been some misunderstanding about his own record, too. For example, many authors now blame Zelensky for the nationalist language policy, centered around restrictions on the Russian language in the public sphere and including restriction of secondary education in the languages of national minorities. In fact, these language laws were adopted during the previous term of parliament’s just that individual provisions of these laws came into force after Zelensky took office. His government has repeatedly tried to soften them, but each time backed down after nationalist protests.

This was evident after the beginning of the invasion in his frequent appeals to the Russians, his invitation to the Kremlin to negotiate, and his statements that the Ukrainian army would not try to retake the territories that were under Russian control before February 24 but would seek their return through diplomatic means in the future. If Zelensky were replaced by someone more nationalistic, the situation would become much worse

 

And a more general outlook if Ukraine loses and powers like Russia win

Quote

The world will become even more unjust and dangerous if non-Western imperialist predators take advantage of American decline to normalize their aggressive policies. Ukraine and Syria are examples of what a “multipolar world” will be like if the appetites of non-Western imperialisms are not reduced.

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[billbindc]

48 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

https://lefteast.org/it-is-always-darkest-before-the-dawn-how-russian-anarchists-today-struggle-for-revolution/

Really interesting interview with anarchists in Russia who are sabotaging railways(sharing recipes on their telegram even) and firebombing recruitment centers. 

You'll also find that their analysis of conditions in Russia echoes a lot of what has been discussed in this forum, as well as being sober in realizing that getting consensus for a different future is difficult.

 

https://commons.com.ua/en/im-ukrainian-socialist-heres-why-i-resist-russian-invasion/

 

And here is the article I referred to earlier, it's by a Ukrainian TDF member. Some of the choicest bits-

The following three paragraphs outline his thoughts on Zelensky,  offer a counter to accusations around Ukraine's language policies, and acknowledge that should he fail, worse movements and actors will take his place 

 

And a more general outlook if Ukraine loses and powers like Russia win

 

Thanks for this. It's always interesting to hear how other parts of the anti-Putinist coalition see the fight and this was informative. You might have heard of Terrell Starr who has a lot of experience in Ukraine and really lays into folks on the left from the left who don't understand why it's necessary to fight Russia. Not my politics but his experience and analysis is quite thorough.

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

But we ought not to entirely substitute OUR reasoning for the Chinese. Or exclusively for any enemy. Too rigid.

Talk about a non sequitor.  I meant that in no country on the planet is the public/very high profile reveal of strategic ISR assets a good thing - all us talking about it because it is all over the news is evidence that this is an intelligence failure, pure and simple. Name me one example in the modern era where this kind of exposure of strategic intelligence gathering was a “good thing”.  Hell the US took a lot of risks exposing the intel it had on Russia in this war. It was a good risk but they gave a lot away doing it.

To call this anything else is to start digging a mythological dread trap.  That is a major analytical failing - projecting out fears onto an opponent and building a mythological framework around that, as opposed to what is the most likely (and simplest) explanation.   

We see it right here - the Chinese have been investing in balloon technology for years, they must know what they are doing.  They just had four platforms detected (one of them by freaking amateur astronomers) and shot down. Well that can’t be what it looks like, they must be up to something…hmm, let’s invent all sorts of weird and wonderful theories that create more fear and uncertainty, and then build more theories on those.

This is not good analysis of the situation.  But it is all sorts of flexible thinking. We also saw this in this war.  

“Russia must have a magic rabbit behind its back because we all know they are really dangerous and we can’t possible understand their strategic mindset.”

”Well no, they just really pooped the bed on their strategy.  There is no deeper plot here, this is straight up desperate attritional warfare leading nowhere (again).”

“That is projecting our thinking rigidly and failing to consider the mystical Russian strategy.”  

“Uh no, it is just really bad planning and execution, and roughly 300k casualties agree with me.  Look they are doing it again.”

Most times it is just a freakin duck.

Oh and for the record if I did have classified knowledge of the Chinese calculus on this whole thing I sure as hell would not be sharing it with strangers on a public Internet forum.

We get some more data, sure we can build out on that but it should come with indicators.  If the Chinese start fielding equipment that can exceed our response times - because we gave it all away scrambling to shoot down balloons (honestly not sure how that would work given physics) or if Russia can actually pull off a break out battle and gain an operational objective. Then we re-assess and quickly reorientate to a new situation.  

That is how professionals do it.  Can we get caught off guard? Sure, but most of those are human error or outright political filtering, not some clever ploy by an opponent. Making masterminds out of idiots is just as bad, maybe worse, than underestimating an opponents capabilities.

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

OK folks... as interesting as it is to talk about Chinese issues or how many synonyms we can come up with for Piers Morgan, I think we should put both to rest now.

For sure China will continue to come up in conversation as applicable to the global aspect of this war, but we needn't get into the weeds of Chinese specific elements.  Too much off course.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Oh man, the Story that Just Won't Die. 

It's like The Last Of Us crossed with 99 Luft Ballloon. 

@Grigb please return and info dump to exceed Zeleban ... We Needs You. 

 

[edit] Ninja'd by BFC! 

Edited February 14, 2023 by Kinophile

[chuckdyke]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Piers Morgan,

Correct if the man says 2+2=4 and your favourite popstar says otherwise the man unfortunately is right. 

Edited February 14, 2023 by chuckdyke

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

https://lefteast.org/it-is-always-darkest-before-the-dawn-how-russian-anarchists-today-struggle-for-revolution/

Really interesting interview with anarchists in Russia who are sabotaging railways(sharing recipes on their telegram even) and firebombing recruitment centers. 

You'll also find that their analysis of conditions in Russia echoes a lot of what has been discussed in this forum, as well as being sober in realizing that getting consensus for a different future is difficult.

 

https://commons.com.ua/en/im-ukrainian-socialist-heres-why-i-resist-russian-invasion/

 

And here is the article I referred to earlier, it's by a Ukrainian TDF member. Some of the choicest bits-

The following three paragraphs outline his thoughts on Zelensky,  offer a counter to accusations around Ukraine's language policies, and acknowledge that should he fail, worse movements and actors will take his place 

 

And a more general outlook if Ukraine loses and powers like Russia win

 

Thanks for all of that.  Good stuff.  I particularly found my understanding of Russian internal politics clicking on this:

Quote

Among the specifics of Russian imperialism we can perhaps name internal colonialism. The central regions act as collective exploiters of the periphery. In doing so, conditions are created for the outflow of the most active people to the center. This leads to a paradoxical situation. On the one hand, Moscow and St. Petersburg are the most active in terms of protests, while on the other hand, they have greater wealth, giving their protests an elitist nature. They demand goods of a higher order (fair elections, freedom of speech, etc.) rather than the solution of everyday economic problems, and therefore most people are less willing to take radical action for their sake. These protests are also less likely to be understood and supported in the regions.

 

Also, a certain specificity of struggle with the state is set by the Soviet past and the 1990s. What people considered good or trash about the Soviet past varies depending on an individual’s experience. This makes it difficult to build a unifying picture of a “beautiful future” that could enthuse people and bring them together.

Boiled down, the privileged are focused on the things they don't have, not the things all Russians lack.  This creates a rift between groups that should be allied with each other, and if allied would present a huge threat to Putin's regime. 

We see similar rifts in most Western countries when it comes to economic justice.  In the US we have the left screaming at the top of their lungs about climate, gender, race, reproductive rights, etc.  Economic issues are almost an afterthought.  The masses see such "elites" as enemies instead of the allies they traditionally were.  And like Russia, there's different "elites" stepping into the void to exploit the situation.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

One thing putin and the Ukrainians agree on. Both don't care how many Russians die in the Ukraine. It is not much but the start of a possible dialog. 

[dan/california]

If it is going to take another half a million, or a million, Russian casualties for the Russians to get the point, we might as well give the Ukrainians the means to get there as quickly as reasonably possible. Yes The_Capt, I know we shouldn't give them nukes...

[Kinophile]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2023

Quote

The Kremlin’s collective skin appears to be thinning as the war protracts at a rate that can be measured by the number of phrases and words Russians are forbidden to say.

Ah, ISW, love your style.

[womble]

8 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

That's what you're up against. Journalists can't ask rational questions.

Morgan isn't a journalist. He's Howard Stern in a suit.

[Gnaeus]

43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In the US we have the left screaming at the top of their lungs about climate, gender, race, reproductive rights, etc.  Economic issues are almost an afterthought.  The masses see such "elites" as enemies instead of the allies they traditionally were.  And like Russia, there's different "elites" stepping into the void to exploit the situation.

Damn but this deserves a like. Not that I'm unsympathetic to some of those other groups, but this is the road we're on.

OK, maybe off topic but the boss started it and won't let me just like it.

[JonS]

8 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

And Piers is a moron.

Homicide is the act of killing a man

Regicide is the act of killing a king

Fratricide is the act of killing a brother (or, more generally, any blue-on-blue)

Matricide is the act of killing your mother

Countryside is the act of killing Piers Morgan

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Oh man, the Story that Just Won't Die. 

It's like The Last Of Us crossed with 99 Luft Ballloon. 

@Grigb please return and info dump to exceed Zeleban ... We Needs You. 

 

[edit] Ninja'd by BFC! 

Just wait til the Chinese are using high altitude balloons to monitor Russian river crossing attempts...

 

[Jiggathebauce]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for all of that.  Good stuff.  I particularly found my understanding of Russian internal politics clicking on this:

Boiled down, the privileged are focused on the things they don't have, not the things all Russians lack.  This creates a rift between groups that should be allied with each other, and if allied would present a huge threat to Putin's regime. 

We see similar rifts in most Western countries when it comes to economic justice.  In the US we have the left screaming at the top of their lungs about climate, gender, race, reproductive rights, etc.  Economic issues are almost an afterthought.  The masses see such "elites" as enemies instead of the allies they traditionally were.  And like Russia, there's different "elites" stepping into the void to exploit the situation.

Steve

I'm glad you read the articles and found them enlightening. And I agree, elites don't care about economic issues except to benefit themselves as a class. 

You'll find that the only thing I disagree  with you on is  the framing, and that's not your fault. The elites you're referring to who are screaming at the top of their lungs are liberals,not leftists. Like the right wing, they have chosen to frame thing in terms of a culture war and, more critically, ignore the economic dimensions of these social struggles( climate, race, gender often ARE big economic issues for the people affected, and we all are affected by them, wether benefiting or being harmed). 

You'll ironically find that the only thing that socialists, anarchists, communists dislike more than the right wing is the liberals. They co-opt social movements asking for meaningful change and make them safe for corporate commodification, and harmless to the status quo.  They signal support for tepid reforms and first capture, then strangle the momentum of any drift that makes their alliance with their more conservative elite colleagues too uncomfortable- and if you think they're truly opposed to each other, see how quick the Dems and 'the most pro union president in US history' joined republicans in opposing rail workers two months ago. I'm sure the tragedy in Ohio recently is a direct result of that one btw.

These liberals openly join their conservative colleagues to oppose economic justice, then have the gall to take on the mantle of 'the left' while suppressing the actual left from the mainstream conversation! They have successfully kept us out and at the margins since the 1950's in the US for example.  

Anyhow, outside of the opening you gave in your response there,  I will keep my politics at a minimum except where relevant to the discussion on the war.  Glad I can participate and add useful perspectives. 

Edited February 14, 2023 by Jiggathebauce