How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, Bulletpoint said:

I am under no illusions about that, and I'm not saying world opinion would immediately turn against Ukraine if they started to use AP land mines.

It's just always a balancing act between their military usefulness and the diplomatic (and later demining) cost. So far, it seems Ukraine has decided that it's not worth it. There are now some allegations that Ukraine has used air delivered petal mines though.

When I comment about mines and cluster munitions here, it is not to "clutch pearls", but because I think it's interesting whether such a convention can be upheld in a full scale war.

And this war is a real hard test of the Mine Ban Treaty.

Sure, and I give your views respect.  I had this same joust with @The_Capt a thousand pages or so ago.

...If the battlefield payout doesn't make sense then the Ukes have no incentive to use AP mines, so great. I personally think they're highly effective and economical in this particular context, but I'm just a game geek, the heck do I know? The Ukrainians will make the tough choices, and it's their own kids and farmers who will pay the price postwar.

Legalistically, I wouldn't expect them to admit their use (no doubt the RUbots have already accused the Ukronazis of it, along with everything else they themselves are doing, and more -- see the Biolabs).

...Still less would they assist any officious Amnesty type trying to 'collect evidence', now or postwar. But once the war is won, who is really going to give a toss what the winners did to win, other than Caitlin Johstone, MoonofAlabama and a few other discredited Russia fools? Facts on the ground. Move along.

[DesertFox]

Maybe some of our friends from the netherlands can confirm this or shed some light what´s going on here?

Doch jetzt werfen niederländische Medienberichte ein anderes Licht auf die Situation! Verteidigungsministerin Kajsa Ollongren (55) hatte dem Parlament am Donnerstag mitgeteilt, dass 18 Leopard-2-Panzer, die die Niederlande von Deutschland leasen, der Ukraine NICHT zur Verfügung gestellt würden. Begründung: ein Nein der Bundesregierung!

Translation: But now Dutch media reports shed a different light on the situation! Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren (55) told parliament on Thursday that 18 Leopard 2 tanks leased by the Netherlands from Germany would NOT be made available to Ukraine. Reason: a no from the federal government!

Blockiert der Kanzler wieder Panzer-Lieferungen? | Politik | BILD.de

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...If the battlefield payout doesn't make sense then the Ukes have no incentive to use AP mines, so great. I personally think they're highly effective and economical in this particular context, but I'm just a game geek, the heck do I know?

Well, I'm also just a gaming geek, but I'm wondering how many mines do you have to plant on average  to take out one charging Russian convict? A hundred? Or a thousand? How many drone-guided mortar shells do you need to fire on average to kill one mobik? Three? Five? Just guessing here.

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Legalistically, I wouldn't expect them to admit their use

They could use land mines completely legally if they just said "Sorry, but we need to drop out of the mine ban convention. We are in a desperate war here." Most people would understand that, I think. Also, it would support the Ukrainian narrative of fighting a desperate war and ... send more weapons please.

On the other hand, preteding that everything is just fine and then using land mines in secret just seems like a Russian thing to do. I don't see why Ukraine would do that.

9 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...Still less would they assist any officious Amnesty type trying to 'collect evidence', now or postwar.

That's possible, but then those Amnesty types would write in their report that Ukraine prevented the gathering of evidence, despite allegations of violating the convention.

Doesn't look too good, and again would be utterly unnecessary when Ukraine could just drop out of the convention and manufacture ten trillion AP land mines and place them in a huge belt all along the border with Russia after the war.

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But once the war is won, who is really going to give a toss what the winners did to win

I think a lot of people give a toss how wars are won, actually.

[Ales Dvorak]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Speaking of which - a prorussian shill blaming US for something is as good of an indication who did it as any.

Well, that's a great logical thinking, different from Zeleban's. Now I know who did it. Thank you. Wake me up when the war is over.

[Aragorn2002]

8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Maybe some of our friends from the netherlands can confirm this or shed some light what´s going on here?

Doch jetzt werfen niederländische Medienberichte ein anderes Licht auf die Situation! Verteidigungsministerin Kajsa Ollongren (55) hatte dem Parlament am Donnerstag mitgeteilt, dass 18 Leopard-2-Panzer, die die Niederlande von Deutschland leasen, der Ukraine NICHT zur Verfügung gestellt würden. Begründung: ein Nein der Bundesregierung!

Translation: But now Dutch media reports shed a different light on the situation! Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren (55) told parliament on Thursday that 18 Leopard 2 tanks leased by the Netherlands from Germany would NOT be made available to Ukraine. Reason: a no from the federal government!

Blockiert der Kanzler wieder Panzer-Lieferungen? | Politik | BILD.de

Fake news

[Yskonyn]

11 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Maybe some of our friends from the netherlands can confirm this or shed some light what´s going on here?

Doch jetzt werfen niederländische Medienberichte ein anderes Licht auf die Situation! Verteidigungsministerin Kajsa Ollongren (55) hatte dem Parlament am Donnerstag mitgeteilt, dass 18 Leopard-2-Panzer, die die Niederlande von Deutschland leasen, der Ukraine NICHT zur Verfügung gestellt würden. Begründung: ein Nein der Bundesregierung!

Translation: But now Dutch media reports shed a different light on the situation! Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren (55) told parliament on Thursday that 18 Leopard 2 tanks leased by the Netherlands from Germany would NOT be made available to Ukraine. Reason: a no from the federal government!

Blockiert der Kanzler wieder Panzer-Lieferungen? | Politik | BILD.de

According to several news outlets this is correct.
Aparently the German Government did not agree and therefore Ollongren cannot push through. Now dutch minister of defense Ollongren has stated that we will buy over 100 Leo 1's (together with Germany as far as I understand) for Ukraine use.

Most reports are quite short and without extensive explanation however.

EDIT: Aragorn2002 calls BS on the report. Perhaps he can elaborate?
BNR news reported it to be correct. Seems like a reliable source?

EDIT2: On further examination; it might be a hassle of words; aparently we lease the 18 Leo 2's from Germany and the plan was to buy them in order to then dispatch them to Ukraine.
Germany claims Netherlands did not make it known to Germany that we would like to deliver Leo2's to Ukraine, whereas the report tells us that Ollongren told parliament that we cannot deliver the Leo 2's because the German government has decided so.
Yet the German Government claims it was not aware of any such intentions and certainly did not block any request. They also hint at discontent within the dutch armed forces about buying Leo's to then make available to Ukraine.
Reeks of bureaucratism or communication error or just bull**** storymaking.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Yskonyn

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Fake news

So she did not give that statement in parliament yesterday?

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, Yskonyn said:

According to several news outlets this is correct.
Aparently the German Government did not agree and therefore Ollongren cannot push through. Now dutch minister of defense Ollongren has stated that we will buy over 100 Leo 1's (together with Germany as far as I understand) for Ukraine use.

Most reports are quite short and without extensive explanation however.

EDIT: Aragorn2002 calls BS on the report. Perhaps he can elaborate?
BNR news reported it to be correct. Seems like a reliable source?

Nope, I spoke too soon. The news is correct unfortunately. 

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Yskonyn said:

According to several news outlets this is correct.
Aparently the German Government did not agree and therefore Ollongren cannot push through. Now dutch minister of defense Ollongren has stated that we will buy over 100 Leo 1's (together with Germany as far as I understand) for Ukraine use.

Most reports are quite short and without extensive explanation however.

EDIT: Aragorn2002 calls BS on the report. Perhaps he can elaborate?
BNR news reported it to be correct. Seems like a reliable source?

Thanks. I´m pretty sure that the truth will see the light here sooner or later.

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, DesertFox said:

So she did not give that statement in parliament yesterday?

She did, but I hadn't heard it yet. Apologies 

[DesertFox]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

Nope, I spoke too soon. The news is correct unfortunately. 

OK

[Haiduk]

15 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, Spirit of 1942 coming...I am curious what "humane" will mean in this conmtext:

 

You know, in UKR society already also thoughts is heard (but too weak in present time) to enlist convicts to similar purposes. Main argument - why we have to lose in close fights our best guys (some volunteers claim that losses ratio in Bakhmut area since December became approx 1:1) if we can go by Russian way - utilize criminals and get twice benefit - to achieve some military goals and clear society from useless elements, which mostly anyway will return to own criminal style of life after liberation. 

I can say that since the war began UKR used this way in limited volume - Zelenskiy has amnestied convicted former soldiers, who wanted to "redeem by blood" own crimes. Part of them were included to "Kraken" special purpose unit. And even more - in "Kraken" now exists special assault platoons formed from soldiers of different units, who were blamed in deserting, disobedience, looting and other crimes. And as you can see under strong and capable command, they achieves success with "Kraken" and have opportunity to redeem own misdemeanors. Though, unlike in Wagner, number of such personnel in "Kraken" is minor.   

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

.... how many mines do you have to plant on average  to take out one charging Russian convict? A hundred? Or a thousand?

How many drone-guided mortar shells do you need to fire on average to kill one mobik? Three? Five? Just guessing here.

 

Tell ya what, let's split the difference. Para-launch or drone-drop the 3 million mines in and around the mobik trenches! Call them 'delayed action munitions', and it's all legit.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The point of the covention is not so much that countries promise not to use mines, as that they commit to stop producing them and especially destroying the mines in their stockpiles. So that when war breaks out, the mines are simply not available.

As long as Russia and China have not joined the convention, the mines will be available to enemies of the West. So the concept does not work.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

argument - why we have to lose in close fights our best guys (some volunteers claim that losses ratio in Bakhmut area since December became approx 1:1)

That is very interesting! Any explanation why the Russians have gotten better?  Have they managed to obtain artillery advantage once more?  Or are VDV/ Wagner tactics working?

[Aragorn2002]

13 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

OK

These 18 Leopard tanks are being used to train new Dutch tank crews as part of the 1st German-Dutch army Korps. They can't be missed, so I agree with the German decision. But the Netherlands will no doubt buy Leopard 2s elsewhere to send to  the Ukraine, on top of the 100 Leopard 1s that will be delivered in coordination with Germany and Denmark.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

You know, in UKR society already also thoughts is heard (but too weak in present time) to enlist convicts to similar purposes. Main argument - why we have to lose in close fights our best guys (some volunteers claim that losses ratio in Bakhmut area since December became approx 1:1) if we can go by Russian way - utilize criminals and get twice benefit - to achieve some military goals and clear society from useless elements, which mostly anyway will return to own criminal style of life after liberation. 

I can say that since the war began UKR used this way in limited volume - Zelenskiy has amnestied convicted former soldiers, who wanted to "redeem by blood" own crimes. Part of them were included to "Kraken" special purpose unit. And even more - in "Kraken" now exists special assault platoons formed from soldiers of different units, who were blamed in deserting, disobedience, looting and other crimes. And as you can see under strong and capable command, they achieves success with "Kraken" and have opportunity to redeem own misdemeanors. Though, unlike in Wagner, number of such personnel in "Kraken" is minor.   

Sure, although per my parallel convo with @Bulletpoint, I'm sure this also runs foul of all kinds of Western human rights conventions.

...But suicide squads are in fact a totally crap idea tactically (barring widespread belief in 72 doe-eyed virgins or the Divine Emperor), so come on.

However, such people could volunteer to take on hazardous combat-adjacent duties, specifically EOD, both during and after the war.  Survival depends mainly on your disciplined application of learned skills (plus some luck), but still a necessary and courageous service to the Nation.

Ukraine might also quietly offer a similar path to select Russian PoWs, with a new identity,  Ukrainian citizenship and clean slate as a reward.  But again, those silly treaties and conventions do stand in the way.

[Kraft]

https://v.redd.it/f240jy9xbaha1

Has this been posted? 5 vehicles driving one after the other into the minefield, the results will (not) surprise you!

[Haiduk]

14 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Some prisoners were taken as well; they look really rough:

 

They are not ethnic Russians, there is an opinion they can be Tatars, from "Alga" volunteer battalion of Tatarstan Republic, created before mobilization. According to Russian social media posts it lost in attack 30 men only killed and unknown number of wounded, missed and captured. 

[kraze]

7 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That is very interesting! Any explanation why the Russians have gotten better?  Have they managed to obtain artillery advantage once more?  Or are VDV/ Wagner tactics working?

"Some volunteers" doesn't equal reliable.

If we suffered 1:1 losses - the town would've been lost by now.

[Bulletpoint]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Main argument - why we have to lose in close fights our best guys (some volunteers claim that losses ratio in Bakhmut area since December became approx 1:1)

I can hardly believe that's true when Russians are basically doing suicide attacks in human waves against well prepared and highly motivated Ukrainian positions. But I'm not a volunteer at the front line. Is there any more info about how Ukraine would lose that many soldiers?

[panzermartin]

There have been reports that the intiital UKR force in Bakhmut was around 30.000.

On 10 January 2023, Polish think tank Rochan Consulting estimated Ukraine may have ten brigades fighting in Bakhmut, or around 30,000 personnel.

I understand this includes artillery crews and reserves that could be outside the ring but, has any part of the main force withdrawn to avoid encriclement or Ukraine is going to sacrifice this huge capable force to the last man? 

[RockinHarry]

11 minutes ago, Kraft said:

https://v.redd.it/f240jy9xbaha1

Has this been posted? 5 vehicles driving one after the other into the minefield, the results will (not) surprise you!

ROFL

[RockinHarry]

Lots of Maskirovka from western side as well. It´s not just russians who can do that.

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That is very interesting! Any explanation why the Russians have gotten better?  Have they managed to obtain artillery advantage once more?  Or are VDV/ Wagner tactics working?

After some threshhold the qauantity transforms to quality. Our soldiers describes Wagners attacks like zerg-rash. These are not "human waves" in usual sence. They attacks with small assault groups from different directions, infiltrate, wear UKR uniform and they do this continuously. You just have foled attack of one group, but since some time already another come from other direction.

In whole Wagners, tactic is standart. First attacking groups are convicts. Their task to reveal our positions and fire positions. Then arty fire, airstrikes. Then next wave of attack, but convicts+"core". Next again arty+avia. Repeat untill. At the end phase Wagners ususally unleash own best fighters to finally elimenate resistance or to force our troops to retreat. Also I already wrote that Wagners widely use drones for battlefield control, when detachment commander sit in own blindage and formally plays in CM with live soldiers, using special software. UKR troops mostly use frones in that cases only for visaul spotting and targeting. Except this own role play high professional and motivation level of commanders on all levels - if to say about "core". Convicted personnel (but loke and all other) has main motivation - do not be shot or sledghammered for retreating without order.

Other strong side of Wagners - since autumn they received many newest equipment, including drones with thermal sights, thermal optics for rifles, etc, so many their advances happaned in the night