How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Turret throwing champion...

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

Has Russia ever tried to use a smokescreen to advance on Bakhmut? If no, why not? Apart from being incompetent of course.

[Zeleban]

9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Has Russia ever tried to use a smokescreen to advance on Bakhmut? If no, why not? Apart from being incompetent of course.

The problem with the smoke screen is that it dissipates rather quickly, which requires very fast and well-coordinated actions between the advancing troops and the artillery that puts the smoke. As we saw earlier, the Russians have big coordination problems.

[BletchleyGeek]

Well, some parts of the Russian Army may be starting to get some of their ideas right
 

[Huba]

Zelensky is meeting Rishi Sunak in Londond today, and according to official webpage of UK Government, the PM will offer increased support for UA, including:

Quote

As part of today’s talks, the Prime Minister will offer to bolster the UK’s training offer for Ukrainian troops, including expanding it to fighter jet pilots to ensure Ukraine can defend its skies well into the future.

The training will ensure pilots are able to fly sophisticated NATO-standard fighter jets in the future. As part of that long-term capability investment, the UK will work with Ukraine and international allies to coordinate collective support to meet Ukraine’s defensive needs.

He will also offer to begin an immediate training programme for marines.

That training will be in addition to the recruit training programme already running in the UK, which has seen 10,000 Ukrainian troops brought to battle readiness in the last six months, and which will upskill a further 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers this year. The UK will continue to work with the Ukrainian Armed Forces and international community to scale the programme up in 2023.

(...)

The Prime Minister will also offer to provide Ukraine with longer range capabilities. This will disrupt Russia’s ability to continually target Ukraine’s civilian and critical national infrastructure and help relieve pressure on Ukraine’s frontlines.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-extends-ukraine-military-training-to-pilots-and-marines-as-president-zelenskyy-makes-first-visit-to-the-uk-since-russian-invasion

In case of UK, fighter pilots training means Eurofighters ( several, IIRC up to 50 Tranche1 are in storage in the UK and were recently approved for sale) or perhaps the Tornado GR4, assuming these are still in flyable condition and not scrapped.

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

The Prime Minister will also offer to provide Ukraine with longer range capabilities. This will disrupt Russia’s ability to continually target Ukraine’s civilian and critical national infrastructure and help relieve pressure on Ukraine’s frontlines.

Interesting. Storm Shadow cruise missiles?

STORM SHADOW / SCALP | Air Dominance, DEEP STRIKE | MBDA (mbda-systems.com)

UK minister is "open minded" over sending longer-range weapons to Ukraine | Reuters

UK ‘not ruling out’ giving Ukraine missiles to reach Russia (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)

[Eddy]

20 minutes ago, Huba said:

In case of UK, fighter pilots training means Eurofighters ( several, IIRC up to 50 Tranche1 are in storage in the UK and were recently approved for sale) or perhaps the Tornado GR4, assuming these are still in flyable condition and not scrapped.

That's what I thought but according to this Senior Research fella at RUSI: 

So not aircraft type specific from what he's saying.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Eddy said:

That's what I thought but according to this Senior Research fella at RUSI: 

So not aircraft type specific from what he's saying.

That makes quite a bit of sense, anyhow this would be I think the first official open move towards the jets for Ukraine. Let's wait till the Zelensky/ Sunak press conference though, he might as well announce something saucy.

[cyrano01]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

That makes quite a bit of sense, anyhow this would be I think the first official open move towards the jets for Ukraine. Let's wait till the Zelensky/ Sunak press conference though, he might as well announce something saucy.

Seems to be a bit of a trend for the UK to act as a 'forlorn hope' for new classes of kit (cf Challenger as first offered MBT) even if they don't/can't supply much actual equipment. There are, perhaps, fewer internal constraints on the UK PM acting as a bit of a lightning conductor for other potential donor leaders.

[Lethaface]

18 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

lol, they just keep coming. Add +100 to that number

and yes, the Danish and Netherland Leo1 is just in addition to their Leo2

Now that's an effective initiative imo. Shared statement of DK/DE/NL:

https://www.defensie.nl/downloads/publicaties/2023/02/07/joint-statement-by-the-defence-ministers-of-denmark-germany-and-the-netherlands 

"The LEOPARD 1 A5 is a robust and assertive Western-designed main battle tank. Our experts are currently working out the next steps together with the industry. Our "Leo 1 A5 Initiative" is open to further partners. So far, Belgium has also shown initial interest to participate."

So a full package of vehicles/training/logistics/ammo of a single type of tank in good numbers, looking for more partners to provide the same capability.

If they can achieve the same concept for Leo2A6 deliveries, that's a job well done I guess.

Imo all the low number Leo2 variants getting pulled from (dusty) storages around europe now, should be round up in Germany (or wherever the required work can be done) is and converted to 2A6 before being send to Ukraine. 

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Gru is MoD intelligence. I highly doubt Prigster is subordinate /  pushed by Gerasimov. He's more closely aligned to FSB / Siloviki

Agree that Prigozhin is not an GRU subordinate but I don't think he's much aligned with the FSB either. He was, to be clear, but he tried to become a power on his own and it looks right now like he failed. The FSB went from seeing him as a useful tool to a an interloper and an incompetent one at that. 

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Zelensky is meeting Rishi Sunak in Londond today, and according to official webpage of UK Government, the PM will offer increased support for UA, including:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-extends-ukraine-military-training-to-pilots-and-marines-as-president-zelenskyy-makes-first-visit-to-the-uk-since-russian-invasion

In case of UK, fighter pilots training means Eurofighters ( several, IIRC up to 50 Tranche1 are in storage in the UK and were recently approved for sale) or perhaps the Tornado GR4, assuming these are still in flyable condition and not scrapped.

I like these parts of that statement:

 

Quote

The training will ensure pilots are able to fly sophisticated NATO-standard fighter jets in the future. As part of that long-term capability investment, the UK will work with Ukraine and international allies to coordinate collective support to meet Ukraine’s defensive needs.

And:
 

Quote

He will also offer to begin an immediate training programme for marines.

That training will be in addition to the recruit training programme already running in the UK, which has seen 10,000 Ukrainian troops brought to battle readiness in the last six months, and which will upskill a further 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers this year. The UK will continue to work with the Ukrainian Armed Forces and international community to scale the programme up in 2023.

And then:
 

Quote

The Prime Minister will also offer to provide Ukraine with longer range capabilities. This will disrupt Russia’s ability to continually target Ukraine’s civilian and critical national infrastructure and help relieve pressure on Ukraine’s frontlines.

 

[Huba]

In other news, situation around Bakhmut is getting progressively worse, it looks like UA might abandon the city very soon. I wonder what happens next? It took Ru half a year (or at least a quarter since mobilization started) to achieve this, I doubt they will be able to keep any momentum.

 

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Turret throwing champion...

 

 

Woooow!

[Lethaface]

6 hours ago, DesertFox said:

I don´t think so, because the tweet posted by the polish MoD reads the following translated with google translator:

 

 

We've read more about the 'wild' numbers from Poland before. Maybe they added a zero as a way to make a long nose to Russia? Anyway I'd refrain from placing bets on the 500 number. 

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

We've read more about the 'wild' numbers from Poland before. Maybe they added a zero as a way to make a long nose to Russia? Anyway I'd refrain from placing bets on the 500 number. 

Yeah, polititians and their statements. Who are we to believe what they tell us?

[Degsy]

"Russian media reports that Russian nationalist mercenary Igor Mangushev, who called for the genocide of Ukrainians, performed on stage with the skull of an alleged defender of Mariupol, and was shot in the skull under unclear circumstances, died in the hospital. https://t.co/pLon0oBvxC

— NOËL (@NOELreports) February 8, 2023"

More information about Mangushev's shooting in the latest Mark Galeotti podcast here  "In Moscows Shadows". Start listening at the 9 minute mark. In summary,  Mangushev's car was shot up at a checkpoint presumably to stop it, then he received a 9mm bullet in the back of his head, fired down at an angle of 45 degrees. So, either suicide or Alternative Dispute Resolution  по русски then.

[mrzafka]

8 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

We've read more about the 'wild' numbers from Poland before. Maybe they added a zero as a way to make a long nose to Russia? Anyway I'd refrain from placing bets on the 500 number. 

The problem will be with manpower - recent plans point to armed forces numbering around 300k, which is not that far from the levels at the end of communist era. And at that time conscription was a thing, not to mention dismal economy that made miltary service an option worth serious consideration. Now, even with the war around the corner, the army is just an emplyer, specific to be sure, but it doesn't seem that reaching the 300k level will be easy (if at all possible) in Poland.

[JM Stuff]

After all the time, that Steve is on line, commenting days and nights about the real situation in Ukraine, and following in direct the real metamorphosis of the Ukrainian army, with the new material from western and over europa countries, I would like really to see the real choice, that he will make to presenting the new module, having only the 
spoiled for choice,
(embarra du choix), to added the news weapons and vehicles, I think we can be surprise about his choice.

Cheers

[Lethaface]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's a topic that I don't think we've covered.

We're all pretty sure the Russians have launched at least the preliminary phase of their winter offensive.  Let's assume it goes on for a couple of weeks and yields no significant change in positions (I'm talking about multiple advances measured in KMs, not Ms) favoring Russia.  Let's also assume that Russia takes massively more losses than Ukraine.

As wrong headed and unrealistic as they might be, I can't think of any goal they've set for themselves that didn't make sense to me.  Therefore, the goals for this offensive are probably well grounded in needs of some sort or another. 

What happens when they don't get what they need out of this offensive?

Steve

That would require knowing what they want/need to get out of it first. 

Going from what's posted in this thread / around the world, the logical goal of a new general offensive for Russia could be to achieve an outcome on the ground which they can hold on to and or an outcome they can sell internally as a 'hard fought victory' - Before Ukraine has the chance to utilize the supposed newly trained and well equipped brigades.
In one phrase I'd say Russia is looking to shape the conditions for an endgame to the war, followed up by digging in and pushing for negotiations while continuing the terror campaign. 

If they don't get what they need out of it, it would mean the turn is back to Ukraine without Russia having the defensive positions / situation they feel they need to push for the endgame. More pressure on the 'social contract' between the Kremlin/Putin and some of the people. Nationalists going rogue?

Inside Ukraine, I'd say an opening for Ukraine to exploit and take back another couple of % of lost land?

Edited February 8, 2023 by Lethaface

[Lethaface]

6 hours ago, Rokko said:

 

Potentially noteworthy, 30th Mech apparently in action north of Bakhmut. Maybe it's old news but I've personally not seen this brigade mentioned in recent weeks, so it was possibly sent to reinforce this sector.

That looks like some drone directed tank 'sniping'. Not unlike a CM game where people utilize tanks/SPGs to shoot & scoot (move, areafire, reverse) at tentative contacts spotted by other units.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

- the amount of ammunition in this LoR is absurdly low compared to number of launchers, it's just 3 reloads, what is the point of that?

More ammo could be in next year's budget.  Given that it might be a couple of years before all of the truck mounted systems are installed, it makes sense.

The other possibility is that Poland has taken a lesson from this war... whatever you think is the number you need on hand, it's probably not enough.

Steve

[Lethaface]

39 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah, polititians and their statements. Who are we to believe what they tell us?

Fools 

32 minutes ago, mrzafka said:

The problem will be with manpower - recent plans point to armed forces numbering around 300k, which is not that far from the levels at the end of communist era. And at that time conscription was a thing, not to mention dismal economy that made miltary service an option worth serious consideration. Now, even with the war around the corner, the army is just an emplyer, specific to be sure, but it doesn't seem that reaching the 300k level will be easy (if at all possible) in Poland.

Good point, I'd imagine financing such a large force for longer duration will become a strain on population as well. There was a reason much of Europe has gotten rid of most of it's army and equipment after the end of the cold war. 
Obviously getting rid of most was a stupid decision, but going to the other extreme doesn't strike me as much wiser.

I'd be glad if my country would step up it's defense commitments. But if I read we're going to order/build 50 nuclear subs overnight I would scratch my head ;-). 

 

Edit to add: over here some politicians are floating the idea of reintroducing (civil service) conscription. Although I think the idea has some merits, giving a couple of hundred thousand of youths something worthwhile to do is no small task by itself. 
 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Lethaface

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Eddy said:

That's what I thought but according to this Senior Research fella at RUSI: 

So not aircraft type specific from what he's saying.

Could also be general tactical training.  One of the weakest areas of Soviet based airforces is their lack of training and coordination with other assets.  Deconfliction is a huge challenge and we've seen reports, one from RUSI I think, indicating that the lack of such training and procedures is limiting air activities for both sides in this war.  Some of this isn't inherently hardware specific.

Steve

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Imo all the low number Leo2 variants getting pulled from (dusty) storages around europe now, should be round up in Germany (or wherever the required work can be done) is and converted to 2A6 before being send to Ukraine. 

IIRC the conversion from A4/5 to A6 is quite extensive and time consuming. I'd rather take them as is. The A4 is more than good enough for this war and you'll never get back the lost time.