How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Ian Bremmer has a decent piece summarizing the "time is on x side"' arguments for Ukraine and Russia.  Some good points, though nothing we haven't debated here (many times) before:

https://www.gzeromedia.com/time-favors-ukraine-or-russia

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, Twisk said:

What are this groups thoughts?

Good summary of what is currently going on.  Thanks.

This map and its arrows look pretty familiar to last year, except a lot of red arrows are missing.  Russia was attacking along the entire front and massively so in the Donetsk area for most of last year.  That alone tells me that Russia's offensive capabilities are seriously degraded as they can only muster a fraction of what they could last year.

We've also seen these sorts of arrows accompanied by commentary that they represent pending strategic breakthroughs that will, in short order, roll up large portions of Ukraine's frontline and penetrate deeply to the east.  It is hard to imagine anybody short of Ritter or Macgregor making such moronic claims.

Steve

[Zeleban]

jet tank

[panzermartin]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

There is a chart floating around that seems to show Russian imports of chips has ~doubled c.f. a year ago. I assume the numbers on the chart are correct - I have no reason to doubt them, and no way to verify them.

Ah, here it is:

The thing is, the chart says nothing about the VOLUME of chips being imported, it only refers to the VALUE of those chips. If Russia is paying four times as much - because: sanctions - then they're only receiving half as many chips this January as last.

 

Edit: What the hell? The right tweet shows in the preview, but then this loss summary shows up when posted. The one I'm referring to is from @elinaribakova , dated 3.25am, 31 Jan 2023

Edit2: grr, and now it's displaying correctly. I'll leave the first edit in case things go screwy again.

That's an interesting observation, I hadn't noticed. The original tweet is to blame because it makes a conclusion with a chart not based on a fixed number and then claims "increase in chip imports". Why she did that? 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

13 hours ago, dan/california said:

A coupe of random thoughts about the balloon. Clearly the U.S.is treating it as a dig deal diplomatically. We could demand the Chinese land it immediately. Although I don't think we would do that publicly unless they had already said yes privately. Of course it could "malfunction" and land after private communications. 

Assuming non of these things occur it will inevitably move out over water eventually. Do you gentlemen think we will shoot it down and recover it then? Or just let it go.

It's quite likely they simply have no idea how too shoot down something like that. The Canadians tried in 1998 on a much smaller balloon and failed:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/02/03/busting-that-chinese-balloon-is-harder-than-you-think/

You might still think that simply puncturing the balloon envelope would be enough. It might not pop like a toy balloon, but letting the gas out should be enough to bring the balloon down.

The problem though is one of scale. Stratospheric balloons are colossal. NASA’s standard balloons are 40 million cubic feet, a volume equivalent to more than 195 GoodyearGT -1.6% blimps: you could fit en entire football stadium inside one. The balloon envelope is made of plastic material no thicker than sandwich wrap, and the pressure difference between the inside and outside is small. Attempting to let the air out by punching a few holes is like expecting to ventilate an entire warehouse with fresh air by opening one small window.

We know that large balloons are hard to shoot down from previous experience. In 1998 a rogue Canadian weather balloon drifted towards Russian airspace. Fighter jets from Canada, Norway and Sweden attempted to bring it down without success. Two Canadian air force CF-18 fighters hit the balloon with more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire off the coast of Newfoundland, riddling it with holes. This was not enough to let a significant amount of gas out, and the balloon continued drifting.

A volley of 2.75” rockets was equally ineffective, as the high-explosive rockets simply flew though the balloon without detonating. This may be the Air Force’s real concern with intercepting the Chinese balloon: any missile fired at it may be a much greater hazard to civilians below than the balloon itself, which is likely to descend slowly if at all. (The Canadian balloon drifted into Russian territory and is believed to have come down in the Arctic Sea).

[Offshoot]

32 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

That's an interesting observation, I hadn't noticed. The original tweet is to blame because it makes a conclusion with a chart not based on a fixed number and then claims "increase in chip imports". Why she did that? 

 

She pulled the data from another report - https://www.4freerussia.org/effectiveness-of-u-s-sanctions-targeting-russian-companies-and-individuals/

To be fair to her, in the linked thread she also posted another graph from the report showing number of transactions, which is probably closer to actual numbers of electronic components than just value.

Again though, there are too many variables to draw firm conclusions, for example, maybe more but smaller in quantity transactions were made.

Take the case of China, which is now their main supplier by far: the value of exports to Russia went up over 2.5 times but the number of transactions went up by only twice. Given the numbers involved, I would guess that price gouging does not account for all the increase in value.

 

[Pete Wenman]

There is a translation of the clip further down the thread. 

 

 

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers during an exercise on the border with Belarus, February 3, 2023. VIACHESLAV RATYNSKYI / REUTERS"

*T-64BV

Edited February 4, 2023 by Taranis

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

To be fair to her, in the linked thread she also posted another graph from the report showing number of transactions

Yeah, I did read the thread, but that graph has exactly the same issue: the info in it *might* the sanctions aren't working, but it could also mean they're working really well. That's the problem with using proxy measures, especially with something as inherently fungible as money.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

further down the thread

The cameras clicking off was amusing.

[fireship4]

14 minutes ago, Taranis said:

"Ukrainian soldiers during an exercise on the border with Belarus, February 3, 2023. VIACHESLAV RATYNSKYI / REUTERS"

Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.

[Kraft]

Igor "Bereg" Mangushev, who was showing the skull of a decapitated Azovstal defender while talking about the annihilation of all Ukrainians on stage, has been shot in the head with a 9mm at a 45% angle from behind. The bullet is still in his brain and his condition is declining. 

He was stationed behind the Frontline in a rear unit.

https://t.me/notes_veterans/7779

Edited February 4, 2023 by Kraft

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, fireship4 said:

Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.

This uncomfortable feeling when one can only empathize with chancellor Scholz and his fears over sending German tanks to Ukraine.

Wait till we see Leopards 2 decorated by these "just some pranksters". And 90% of Ukrainian officers traditionally doing jack sh..t to curb them. Because, you know, black humour...

 

Meanwhile, on the other burt of ethnonatonalistic Ship of Fools:

 

[G.I. Joe]

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

This uncomfortable feeling when one can only empathize with chancellor Scholz and his fears over sending German tanks to Ukraine.

Wait till we see Leopards 2 decorated by these "just some pranksters". And 90% of Ukrainian officers traditionally doing jack sh..t to curb them. Because, you know, black humour...

Yeah, it's occurred to me more than once that the sight of a Leopard 2 painted like that would be enough to give a Bundeswehr public affairs officer, or more to the point a German politician, a serious case of acid reflux...

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

Igor "Bereg" Mangushev, who was showing the skull of a decapitated Azovstal defender while talking about the annihilation of all Ukrainians on stage, has been shot in the head with a 9mm at a 45% angle from behind. The bullet is still in his brain and his condition is declining. 

He was stationed behind the Frontline in a rear unit.

https://t.me/notes_veterans/7779

Sounds like a fragging.

[Zeleban]

 

 

[Zeleban]

 

[Kinophile]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good summary of what is currently going on.  Thanks.

This map and its arrows look pretty familiar to last year, except a lot of red arrows are missing.  Russia was attacking along the entire front and massively so in the Donetsk area for most of last year.  That alone tells me that Russia's offensive capabilities are seriously degraded as they can only muster a fraction of what they could last year.

We've also seen these sorts of arrows accompanied by commentary that they represent pending strategic breakthroughs that will, in short order, roll up large portions of Ukraine's frontline and penetrate deeply to the east.  It is hard to imagine anybody short of Ritter or Macgregor making such moronic claims.

Steve

Not necessarily,  this seems a bit of a confirmation bias conclusion.

We've all noted that the Donbas push was a microcosm of the SMO -  too much expected, too many attack points, too few forces to achieve the first two points. 

This push now doesn't have to mean that they're again trying to do too much with too little. If anything,  with close to 500,000 personnel to draw on and a more focussed and simpler objective set,  they are now trying to achieve something relatively realistic,  in a reasonable amount of attack axis,  with relatively reasonable size forces. 

Im not RUS STRONK UKR DOOMED. But purely objectively,  this is not a simple repeat. 

This is different,  and we'd do well to identify and isolate what makes it so. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

How is this so hard for the europeans?

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/waffenhilfe-fuer-die-ukraine-kanzler-olaf-scholz-redet-den-panzer-partnern-ins-gewissen-a-9a1da89b-0b76-4c2d-a93a-d7116dca071f

Here is a free to read paper in finnish (translate works): https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000009371956.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=toimitus-dlvr

THE EXPORT OF LEOPARD 2 battle tanks to Ukraine is in trouble, says the German newspaper Der Spiegel . According to the magazine, only very few countries have committed to give their tanks to Ukraine.

With these prospects, Ukraine will not receive enough Leopard 2 tanks to arm two Ukrainian tank battalions. The strength of one battalion is 31 tanks.

According to Der Spiegel, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius organized a video conference last week, where no EU country committed to concrete promises regarding the number of 2A6 tanks.

Even Holland, which promised carriages in public, did not promise anything.

The German Chancellor's Office still hopes that, with the cooperation of the countries, wagons for the needs of the two battalions will be gathered by the end of March. The lack of commitments has still caused German officials to hesitate.

"The only Leopards that will really be ready with trained crews at the end of March are the Bundeswehr [German Armed Forces] tanks," one expert told Der Spiegel.

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Zeleban said:

jet tank

Interesting to see an "O" mark on the knocked out tank at the end of the clip.  I haven't seen one of those in a while.

I counted 8 vehicles in this clip, 3 being tanks and at least 3 IFVs.  Not sure about the other 2.

Steve

[kevinkin]

A little on the behind the scenes grassroots supply efforts. Nimble, lean networks will be best. But not there yet. Some of the large logistics outfits need to step up. Then back away to pervent unneeded red tape. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/02/vindman-leads-new-push-to-send-military-contractors-to-ukraine-00081016

[poesel]

26 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

"The only Leopards that will really be ready with trained crews at the end of March are the Bundeswehr [German Armed Forces] tanks," one expert told Der Spiegel.

From the full article is the information that Poland will deliver the promised tanks, but no spare parts and no training. If that is true and was their intent from the beginning - wow, that would be really cheap.

59 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Yeah, it's occurred to me more than once that the sight of a Leopard 2 painted like that would be enough to give a Bundeswehr public affairs officer, or more to the point a German politician, a serious case of acid reflux...

We are very used to the lenient use of Nazi symbols in other countries (cough...UK..cough). But I guess there will be a silent agreement between Ukraine and Germany to not let that happen.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Sounds like a fragging.

Yeah, a personality like that tends to make more enemies than friends.  Especially given the inherent criminal nature of Wagner and DLPR organizations.

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Not necessarily,  this seems a bit of a confirmation bias conclusion.

We've all noted that the Donbas push was a microcosm of the SMO -  too much expected, too many attack points, too few forces to achieve the first two points. 

This push now doesn't have to mean that they're again trying to do too much with too little. If anything,  with close to 500,000 personnel to draw on and a more focussed and simpler objective set,  they are now trying to achieve something relatively realistic,  in a reasonable amount of attack axis,  with relatively reasonable size forces. 

Im not RUS STRONK UKR DOOMED. But purely objectively,  this is not a simple repeat. 

This is different,  and we'd do well to identify and isolate what makes it so. 

True, it could be that Russia learned that the widespread use of small points of pressure strategy was not producing a net positive effect, causing them to change strategy rather than being obligated to because of shortages.

However, coupled with other evidence we've seen of shortages (in particular munitions and armored vehicles), I think it is pretty safe to conclude that part of why Russia is no longer attacking 100 places every day is that it can't.  At a minimum they would be keeping up the constant shelling of Ukrainian positions, but that's been off the menu for months now.

What none of this tells us is if they have sufficient stocks of munitions and equipment to conduct a large scale offensive or if it will just be mobiks with fixed bayonets screaming URAAAAAH!

Steve