How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

9 hours ago, JonS said:

I think he's talking about you, mate, but mixing your cap badge up with combatintguy's

Oh well, I guess I'm not one of the cool kids.

Find all the trucks. Find them all.

 

Oh, and here's something for the tank crowd:

 

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is there any reason they wouldn't do that, apart from it being too obvious?

Yes, they would wait for the RA to attack first out of their fortified positions and the cut them up in open ground (maybe with the help of some of the new NATO AFVs) with stockpiles of artillery and missiles. They could just wait and lure the RA into kill zones and then go over to the offensive in the Fall. If this campaign season becomes a waiting game, then the UA could do nothing (which I doubt for PR reasons) or attack into the weakest points of the front and see what happens. When the UA goes over to the offense again, they have to assure success if for only (and I hate to say it) PR reasons.  

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Yes, they would wait for the RA to attack first out of their fortified positions and the cut them up in open ground (maybe with the help of some of the new NATO AFVs) with stockpiles of artillery and missiles. They could just wait and lure the RA into kill zones and then go over to the offensive in the Fall. If this campaign season becomes a waiting game, then the UA could do nothing (which I doubt for PR reasons) or attack into the weakest points of the front and see what happens. When the UA goes over to the offense again, they have to assure success if for only (and I hate to say it) PR reasons.  

Since  you're putting fortified positions in italics, I assume that's because you think I don't understand the concept. I do.

The question remains which other sections of the front would be more suitable for an attack though.

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

Since  you're putting fortified positions in italics, I assume that's because you think I don't understand the concept. I do.

The question remains which other sections of the front would be more suitable for an attack though.

I know you know what they are. Just a way to highlight them vs open ground. That's all.

Here is some timely analysis today on the same subject:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-pre-emptive-strike-plan-091615646.html

No one can figure out if RA positions are serving to secure a base for offensives or just to hold current ground. The most suitable sectors for UA attack will be the weakest ones that can be held long term regardless of where they are. But who knows where they will be in a few months. Anyway, the link is an interesting quick read. 

[FancyCat]

 

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Oh well, I guess I'm not one of the cool kids.

Find all the trucks. Find them all.

 

Oh, and here's something for the tank crowd:

 

 

3 RTR was my local tank regiment from my growing up days.  Interesting article particularly regarding target acquisition compared to Challenger I - the author got pretty good results but there were a few negatives in the dislikes section about it.  My understanding is that the fire control system on Challenger II is leaps and bounds different to Challenger I and as the Twitterati pointed out, the M1 of today is a better beast than the M1 of a few years back.  Hopefully it has got a BV now otherwise their M1 crews will want a transfer to those units supplied with Brit kit ...

AFV Boiling Vessel – Tales from the Supply Depot

 

[Beleg85]

News are that 2S22 Bohdana howitzer will start to be produced for Ukraine in undisclosed location in or abroad. Some people expect even ca. 50 pieces produced this year.

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/sau-bogdana-pishla-v-seriyu/

 

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Yes I am cranky and caustic ...

But sweet on the inside...kinda like a rancid Werther's Original. 

[Fernando]

Last news about the retired man who send the bomb letters to the UK embassy in Spain and other places:

https://elpais.com/espana/2023-01-27/el-juez-envia-a-prision-por-terrorismo-al-jubilado-que-envio-cartas-pirotecnicas.html

The judge sends the retiree who sent pyrotechnic letters to prison for terrorism and highlights his affinity with Russia
The magistrate argues his decision at the risk that Pompeyo González flees and may receive help from citizens of that country

[...] In his resolution, which can be appealed, Judge Calama argues the imprisonment of González Pascual because of his affinity with Russia and that they could facilitate "his flight to Russian territory, receiving help from citizens of said country" for "the significance of their violent actions as a means of propaganda for the Russian occupation of Ukraine." Specifically, the magistrate points out that the retired official used Russian instant messaging applications, such as VK (acronym for Vkontakte, one of the largest social networks in the world under Kremlin control since December 2021), as well as Protonmail, a service of encrypted emails emerged in Switzerland a decade ago. The National Police has insisted this Friday in a note that "it is not ruled out that [the detainee] could be influenced by other actors", without specifying.

The judicial order also highlights that, although the investigation has not revealed so far that the detainee "belongs to or collaborates with any terrorist gang or organized group", González Pascual intended by sending the artifacts to convey "the message that we are before actions carried out by people linked to Russia”. And he adds that both the actions (sending the six envelopes), the context (the war in Ukraine) and the recipients (the kyiv and Washington embassy in Madrid, an arms company, the Torrejón de Ardoz air base, the President Sánchez and Minister Robles) “evidence that in the spirit of said investigated is present both the objective of seriously altering public peace [...], as well as forcing the public powers in our country to refrain from the support shown in favor of Ukraine against Russian aggression.

In his resolution, the judge adds that this purpose seems to be reaffirmed both by "the persistence in the execution of these actions" - he made the shipments between November 21 and 30, and presumably planned to do more in the future - as well as by the content of the web pages that the retiree consulted. Specifically, the Russian news portals Russia Today and Sputnik News; a portal about weapons (to which he made 11 connections); another on chemical products and various sales of "DIY elements and screws". "This shows that the detainee has been acquiring knowledge both about chemistry in order to make explosives through the use of substances easily available on the market, and in relation to weapons," adds the magistrate. For all these reasons, he concludes that "such circumstances objectify a high risk of criminal reiteration, which entails the need to order his provisional detention."

In this sense, the order details that during the search carried out at the former official's home, the police found material similar to that used to make the six artifacts sent, including cylindrical rods, drills with precision bits, screws or springs similar to those They served as a "percussion". The investigation also indicates that González Pascual was allegedly manipulating a drone to move artifacts and drop them by remote control.

[cesmonkey]

7 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Withholding cluster munitions is not the right thing, but an irrational taboo, completely inadequate in this situation. The reason why US stopped using them was that the bomblets had 2% dud rate instead of the 1% dud rate, which is the accepted threshold for the US military from the UXO hazard point of view. Obviously this is based on concerns typical for the wars that the US is engaged in, counterinsurgencies in countries not fully capable to clean up their territory from failed munitions, where the hostilities are taking place next to civilian life. Ukraine is a country in Europe, waging a full scale war on its own land, which is already full of all kinds of unexploded bombs and shells, Russians cluster munitions included. Some DPICM bomblets (which probably have a dud rate much lower than the Russian ones) will not add to the UXO hazard in any appreciable way. Let it be the Ukrainians’ decision.

The same goes for the AP mines, which the Ukrainian soil is already riddled with because Russians plant them by the ton.

It appears this topic is being talked about more broadly now:
 

 

[DesertFox]

If true, I´m interested to learn how long the Orcs can sustain that. About 9/2022 was the date when the Mobiks were starting to show up, if I´m not mistaken.

 

Russia's losses in Ukraine - official data (minfin.com.ua)

Edited January 27, 2023 by DesertFox

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

It appears this topic is being talked about more broadly now:
 

 

Not really sure what the issue is to be honest.  Neither the US nor Ukraine are signed on to the Dublin/Olso Convention.  DPICM are not outlawed at the CCW.

https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVI-6&chapter=26&clang=_en
 

So beyond some dirty looks from some western allies, and some noises from NGOs (but they all have to be remembering the Amnesty International fiasco), I am not sure what the real risk is in this context.  RoW are going to be a concern but Ukraine has a century long RoW problem right now, not sure if modern western DPICM are going to be the major issue compared to the Russian created nightmare, while their usage could make a real difference.

Definitely a possible political downside but as this war has progressed and Russia keeps lowering the bar, Ukraine employing these weapon systems deliberately and carefully (eg recording, transparency etc) seems manageable.

 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

If true, I´m interested to learn how long the Orcs can sustain that. About 9/2022 was the date when the Mobiks were starting to show up, if I´m not mistaken.

 

Russia's losses in Ukraine - official data (minfin.com.ua)

This brings up that ongoing question we just can't answer.  How much death can RU populace take before it flips?  How much death is needed to overcome the propaganda?  I understand that lots of these dead were criminals, but what about when it's family men dying at this crazy rate?  

[Bulletpoint]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Not really sure what the issue is to be honest.  Neither the US nor Ukraine are signed on to the Dublin/Olso Convention.  DPICM are not outlawed at the CCW.

The issue is that the cluster munitions convention also prevents other countries from giving or selling cluster munitions to Ukraine.

In many cases, stockpiles have even been destroyed, as cluster bombs are no longer seen as having a military usefulness that outweighs their humanitarian impact.

Ukraine itself is free to fire off as many as they want, as they never signed the convention.

The US didn't either, so they could provide them with munitions.

Moral arguments aside, I am not sure they are really that useful in a modern setting with precision artillery and where drones can drop grenades directly into foxholes and trenches.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Huba]

44 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

News are that 2S22 Bohdana howitzer will start to be produced for Ukraine in undisclosed location in or abroad. Some people expect even ca. 50 pieces produced this year.

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/sau-bogdana-pishla-v-seriyu/

 

I wonder if it will be mounted on Tatra or Jelcz? Perhaps Kryl ( Polish failed program to build truck-mounted SPG) was quietly brought back from the dead? We need 150 just for Rosomak brigades, could easily accommodate three times that ( why have tracked platforms in central level artilery brigades?) and market for that type of vehicle is exploding after CAESARs proved themselves in combat. 

There was a lot of rumors that HSW is producing something for Ukraine on top of Krabs - hence no space for Pzh2000 repair facilities for example. 

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The issue is that that the cluster munitions convention also prevents other countries from giving or selling cluster munitions to Ukraine.

Ukraine itself is free to fire off as many as they want, as they never signed the convention.

The US didn't either, so they could provide them with munitions.

It looks like Estonian MoD see no problem with transfering cluster munitions to Ukraine and intends to go with it.

 

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

It looks like Estonian MoD see no problem with transfering cluster munitions to Ukraine and intends to go with it.

 

That's because Estonia has not signed up to the convention... It's completely voluntary.

[Seminole]

Baerbock's comments played right into Russia's position that they are in a proxy war with the West which was triggered by decades of NATO expansion to their doorstep, vs. the West's position that they're simply supporting Ukraine against an unprovoked invasion.

Of note, on Wednesday, Washington announced that it would send more than 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev, while Berlin committed to a dozen Leopard II panzers, while encouraging Poland and other EU and NATO members to provide similar support. France, meanwhile, is "continuing our analysis" of the proposal to send tanks to Ukraine, after already promising several AMX-10 "light tanks" earlier this month.

NATO members France and Croatia have explicitly refuted Baerbock.

"We are not at war with Russia and none of our partners are," said French ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre on Thursday, per AFP. "The delivery of military equipment… does not constitute co-belligerence."

Anne-Claire Legendre

Croatian President Zoran Milanovic called Baerbock's comments "madness."

"Now the German foreign minister says we must be united, because I quote, we are at war with Russia. I didn’t know that," he said, adding "Maybe Germany is at war with Russia, but then, good luck, maybe this time it turns out better than 70-odd years ago."

Zoran Milanović

"If we are at war with Russia, then let’s see what we need to do. But we won’t ask Germany for its opinion," Milanovic asserted. "Let them figure out who is the actual chancellor over there. I’ve been in politics for a long time, and our country has been through a lot, but I’ve never seen this kind of madness before," he continued.

"Do you want us to enter the war?" he asked during a visit to the port city of Split, adding that Croatia "should in no way help" Ukraine militarily, Summit News reports.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Seminole

[Kraft]

5 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Finally seeing some airburst.

Out of curiosity I wonder what is up with the spread pattern. 

 

https://www.jstor.org/stable/44697732?seq=18#metadata_info_tab_contentsh

I think the shell trajectory => momentum of the shell influences the flight path of the shrapnell and shell fragments.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Kraft

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Baerbock's comments played right into Russia's position that they are in a proxy war with the West which was triggered by decades of NATO expansion to their doorstep, vs. the West's position that they're simply supporting Ukraine against an unprovoked invasion.

Of note, on Wednesday, Washington announced that it would send more than 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev, while Berlin committed to a dozen Leopard II panzers, while encouraging Poland and other EU and NATO members to provide similar support. France, meanwhile, is "continuing our analysis" of the proposal to send tanks to Ukraine, after already promising several AMX-10 "light tanks" earlier this month.

NATO members France and Croatia have explicitly refuted Baerbock.

"We are not at war with Russia and none of our partners are," said French ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre on Thursday, per AFP. "The delivery of military equipment… does not constitute co-belligerence."

Anne-Claire Legendre

Croatian President Zoran Milanovic called Baerbock's comments "madness."

"Now the German foreign minister says we must be united, because I quote, we are at war with Russia. I didn’t know that," he said, adding "Maybe Germany is at war with Russia, but then, good luck, maybe this time it turns out better than 70-odd years ago."

Zoran Milanović

"If we are at war with Russia, then let’s see what we need to do. But we won’t ask Germany for its opinion," Milanovic asserted. "Let them figure out who is the actual chancellor over there. I’ve been in politics for a long time, and our country has been through a lot, but I’ve never seen this kind of madness before," he continued.

"Do you want us to enter the war?" he asked during a visit to the port city of Split, adding that Croatia "should in no way help" Ukraine militarily, Summit News reports.

Baerbock may have had one of those little errors where a person says what they actually think, as opposed to the official line. The larger issue is that Micheal Tracy is a Russian stooge, consciously or or unconsciously, paid or not, the mans output is indistinguishable from Russian propaganda outlets.

 

[DesertFox]

22 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Baerbock's comments played right into Russia's position that they are in a proxy war with the West which was triggered by decades of NATO expansion to their doorstep, vs. the West's position that they're simply supporting Ukraine against an unprovoked invasion.

Of note, on Wednesday, Washington announced that it would send more than 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev, while Berlin committed to a dozen Leopard II panzers, while encouraging Poland and other EU and NATO members to provide similar support. France, meanwhile, is "continuing our analysis" of the proposal to send tanks to Ukraine, after already promising several AMX-10 "light tanks" earlier this month.

NATO members France and Croatia have explicitly refuted Baerbock.

"We are not at war with Russia and none of our partners are," said French ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre on Thursday, per AFP. "The delivery of military equipment… does not constitute co-belligerence."

Anne-Claire Legendre

Croatian President Zoran Milanovic called Baerbock's comments "madness."

"Now the German foreign minister says we must be united, because I quote, we are at war with Russia. I didn’t know that," he said, adding "Maybe Germany is at war with Russia, but then, good luck, maybe this time it turns out better than 70-odd years ago."

Zoran Milanović

"If we are at war with Russia, then let’s see what we need to do. But we won’t ask Germany for its opinion," Milanovic asserted. "Let them figure out who is the actual chancellor over there. I’ve been in politics for a long time, and our country has been through a lot, but I’ve never seen this kind of madness before," he continued.

"Do you want us to enter the war?" he asked during a visit to the port city of Split, adding that Croatia "should in no way help" Ukraine militarily, Summit News reports.

 

Obviously the Kremlin and Putin-Lovers try to capitalize on that, but it has been taken out of context.

Russlands Angriffskrieg: Moskau fordert Klärung zu Baerbock-Aussage „Krieg gegen Russland“ - WELT
 

Quote

 

Die Sicherheitsexpertin Claudia Major von der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik sprach am Freitag im ZDF-„Morgenmagazin“ von einem „extrem unglücklichen Versprecher“ Baerbocks, der nun von der russischen Staatspropaganda ausgeschlachtet werde.

The security expert Claudia Major from the Science and Politics Foundation spoke on Friday in the ZDF "Morgenmagazin" of an "extremely unfortunate slip of the tongue" by Baerbock, who is now being exploited by Russian state propaganda.

 

 

[cesmonkey]

An interesting, high-level discussion of the war:
 

 

[Seminole]

How was it taken out of context?

It may well be undiplomatic, ill-considered, and fraught with implications, but it isn't out of context.

One doesn't need to love the Kremlin to observe that arming and training belligerents gets you closer and closer to being a belligerent.

If someone observes the USS Greer operating the Black Sea we can get really concerned.

[chrisl]

13 minutes ago, Seminole said:

If someone observes the USS Greer operating the Black Sea we can get really concerned.

Yes - it would indicate that we've gone through some kind of time vortex, which could be very problematic.

[The_Capt]

53 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The issue is that the cluster munitions convention also prevents other countries from giving or selling cluster munitions to Ukraine.

In many cases, stockpiles have even been destroyed, as cluster bombs are no longer seen as having a military usefulness that outweighs their humanitarian impact.

Ukraine itself is free to fire off as many as they want, as they never signed the convention.

The US didn't either, so they could provide them with munitions.

Ya that is kinda my read as well.  This would have to be a side-deal between the US and Ukraine.  I think there may be a concern that other countries could balk so hard that they begin to pull back on support in other areas.  Honestly I think that was a real concern about 6 months ago but we have already passed so much water under the bridge at this point and Russia just can't help pooping all over the LOAC that I am not so sure it would be a real issue.

56 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Moral arguments aside, I am not sure they are really that useful in a modern setting with precision artillery and where drones can drop grenades directly into foxholes and trenches.

Well that is an interesting point.  The conventional wisdom is that DPICM drastically reduce the rounds-to-kill rate, particularly for armored vehicles.  In CMCW we noted that they were devastating for troops in the open.  But we are living in a new era here.  Those HIMARs tungsten monsters seem to be doing very well at shredding.  And you are correct, DPICM is actually less lethal than say Excalibur.  If I had to choose, I would pick PGM everytime.

I think they are still useful, I mean they will blow stuff up real good!  But the context maybe narrower and they enter mid-field in a suite of ammo types. What I would like to see is the rumored next-gen precision DPICM, which was supposed by nearly dud-proof and able to kill from standoff.  Son of this - 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sense_and_Destroy_ARMor   

Regardless, DPICM will likely have utility but it is also not likely a hill to die on either.  I mean they are not Leo2s which will sneak into Russia's house a night and wreck up the place!