How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

11 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

Just in:

"Former high-ranking Wagner commander crossed the Russian-Norwegian border on foot and asked for asylum. Didn't want to renew his contract in July 2022 after witnessing executions of comrades.
Says he wants to testify against Prigozjin."

Don't know what they mean by high-ranking, but even his name is mentioned.

 

 

Not only that but the bastard apparently lives without issues in Norway right now and the sole fact of him not being immediately sent to Ukraine to stand trial for warcrimes he committed (not to mention breaking international criminal law related to mercenaries that Norway is a signee of) pisses me to no end.

He was killing Ukrainians for 3 months and now he wants a chill life in a better country that "has microwaves and toilets" (as he himself states in a videocall with some russian blogger).

I mean how the hell is he in Norway still? How?

Edited January 17, 2023 by kraze

[Butschi]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's going to happen anyway.  Already is.  I just watched some Russian's interviewed about the war and most of them said they view this as a war with the US.  One guy started out by saying he wouldn't go to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians because what have they done to anybody?  It's the Americans that are to blame, so if he could he'd kill Americans.  Yesh.

Anyway, the point is that as the single largest booster for Ukraine before, during, and most likely after the war it is inevitable that the US will have disproportional influence.  Nothing could be more important for Ukraine than being closely tied into Europe.  As noted in previous posts, there are more ways to do that than full EU membership, but none are as good.  The US should encourage, very strongly, Ukraine shooting for the "gold standard" and see where it takes them

Nothing wrong with what you write. What I meant to say: It is more about the wording. Helping Ukraine get ready for EU membership is ok and will help Ukraine no matter what. But it should not look like the US are trying to "insert" Ukraine into the EU or something because that would not sit well with quite a lot of factions within the EU and this would hurt Ukraine's chance to become a member (and pretty speeches on Sundays aside, I don't see that as finally decided, yet).

 

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

You hit upon a major point that is in Ukraine's favor.  And that is the EU already knows it has to reform its voting and governance, not because of Ukraine but because the system doesn't work very well and will only get worse with enlargement.  Hungary made it pretty clear that the concept of all countries having an equal say in policy is not working.  More over, the EU has incentives to enlarge and there's no reasonable way for enlargement to happen with the current structure.  Nothing gets done in the US with 50 states and we have majority vote!  Imagine if we had a requirement for unanimous decisions?  (shudder)

Unanimous votes have to go, of course. But the trouble with Hungary about this is just one symptom of a much deeper issue, that, I think we have to sort out before expanding further. Within the "core EU", say mid/end 1990s, for all the bickering and haggling that had always existed, there had been an understanding that economical union and prosperity is a means to politically uniting Europe, based on common culture and philosophy. The main driver had been politicians who still remembered the war. For the younger generation it was maybe more of a third way between socialism and the worst forms of capitalism, and politics based on values and less on power. (What a time it was to be an idealistic student! )

Nowadays, we are lacking a vision of what we want Europe to be. In parts that has to do with a too fast expansion and with some EECs it is obvious that they care less about values and more about Euros. But also for example Germany under Merkel has increasingly been about exploiting the free market and blocking everything else.

So, really bad timing for Ukraine, but I'd like us to sit down, develop a vision for the EU and get reforms going before we take any more new members.

EDIT: In the meantime there should be a strong EU association for Ukraine and a clear and binding plan about rebuilding. 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Butschi

[Astrophel]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, it's in there.  All of these items have at least one full paragraph, some quarter page.  I didn't think posting 9 pages was appropriate

I hope some attention will be given to helping the refugees return and reintegrate.  This is the first time I know that so many refugees are women and children - the future of Ukraine.  As the war drags on and the infrastructure is destroyed it becomes harder and harder for them to think of going back as a realistic possibility.  A plan for helping when the war ends and peace is secure would give much needed hope and perspective.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Hey Germans here 

How is this dude in terms of Russia and Ukraine?

[Zeleban]

Footage of the destruction of a large number of Wagnerians in one trench. GRAPHIC

[Huba]

Duda is in Davos today, and he said a few interesting things:

- he confirmed that Poland sent more than 260 T-72s to Ukraine already. If you add the rumored battalions worth of PT91, it adds up to 300 vehicles. This is I think the first semi-official confirmation of this number
- we sent almost the whole stock of Piorun MANPADS, at least 1400 missiles (not counting older Grom I guess)
- and most interestingly, he outlined the sensible goal for the Leo consortium:

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Hey Germans here 

How is this dude in terms of Russia and Ukraine?

Hmmm...the guy was in German-Russian coordination group and former personal protegee or at least in circles close to Schroeder(and it seems competitor for hand of his wife, also pro-Russian). Also wanted to take off sanctions from Russia in 2018.

Does not look very well- probably Scholz needed somebody to curb arms industry circles to do what party says.

 

In Ukrainian topics- Arestovycz resigned after his Dnipro attack claims (he told it was Ukrainian air-defence rocket that fall of the building).

Edited January 17, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Here's a little break from the German-bashing.

...I keep getting urged to visit this place, but then I read utterly creepy stuff like this and it drops off my bucket list again. At least the Serbs and Croats are upfront about their ethnic cleansing habits.

During A̶n̶s̶c̶h̶l̶u̶s̶s̶ Covid, Austrian schoolteachers were calling children to stand up in class to explain the socially harmful nature of their J̶e̶w̶i̶s̶h̶ ̶o̶r̶i̶g̶i̶n̶s̶ unvaxxed status.  That may be a Tweetlibel, but somehow I don't think so....

They take petty authoritarianism in with their mothers' milk?

Neither clever, nor funny, nor campy, and absolutely not relevant.  You looking for a warning or something a bit more?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Nothing wrong with what you write. What I meant to say: It is more about the wording. Helping Ukraine get ready for EU membership is ok and will help Ukraine no matter what. But it should not look like the US are trying to "insert" Ukraine into the EU or something because that would not sit well with quite a lot of factions within the EU and this would hurt Ukraine's chance to become a member (and pretty speeches on Sundays aside, I don't see that as finally decided, yet).

Yes, good point.  I'll tweak the language a bit.

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Unanimous votes have to go, of course. But the trouble with Hungary about this is just one symptom of a much deeper issue, that, I think we have to sort out before expanding further. Within the "core EU", say mid/end 1990s, for all the bickering and haggling that had always existed, there had been an understanding that economical union and prosperity is a means to politically uniting Europe, based on common culture and philosophy. The main driver had been politicians who still remembered the war. For the younger generation it was maybe more of a third way between socialism and the worst forms of capitalism, and politics based on values and less on power. (What a time it was to be an idealistic student! )

Nowadays, we are lacking a vision of what we want Europe to be. In parts that has to do with a too fast expansion and with some EECs it is obvious that they care less about values and more about Euros. But also for example Germany under Merkel has increasingly been about exploiting the free market and blocking everything else.

So, really bad timing for Ukraine, but I'd like us to sit down, develop a vision for the EU and get reforms going before we take any more new members.

EDIT: In the meantime there should be a strong EU association for Ukraine and a clear and binding plan about rebuilding. 

Agreed.  The "lack of vision" thing is not unique to the EU either, unfortunately.  There's one side that flounders with the old vision of unity and another side that simply says "no" to it.  Seems to be a lot of it going around.

Just about the only good thing to come out of this war is SOME sense that there's benefit from the old Cold War concepts of collective action in the face of (at least) military action.  This has been sorely lacking for the past 20 years with regards to Russia specifically, but other challenges as well.  However, we have to remember that this rotting away of common purpose started quickly.  I doubt Yugoslavia's messy breakup would have been handled (i.e. largely ignored) the same way in 1970 as it was in 1991.  Partly because the Soviet Union would have ensured it was vastly worse than what Russia was able to do.

Anyway, your point about Ukraine wanting to be part of a club that is not nearly as great as could/should be is well taken.

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Footage of the destruction of a large number of Wagnerians in one trench. GRAPHIC

That has to be PGM.  Precision beats mass.

[Bulletpoint]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That has to be PGM.  Precision beats mass.

Or editing the video to show only the shells that hit?

If Ukraine has enough precision guided munitions to spend several of them hitting a couple of guys in a trench, then I think that is a very positive sign about their ammo stocks.

[Kinophile]

9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Or editing the video to show only the shells that hit?

If Ukraine has enough precision guided munitions to spend several of them hitting a couple of guys in a trench, then I think that is a very positive sign about their ammo stocks.

There's more new craters than shown shell hits,  so editing in play?  But precision doesn't need to be GPS guided,  Drones add Precision if laser equipped (and without laser not as much, so maybe just Increased Accuracy). 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Kinophile

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Hmmm...the guy was in German-Russian coordination group and former personal protegee or at least in circles close to Schroeder(and it seems competitor for hand of his wife, also pro-Russian). Also wanted to take off sanctions from Russia in 2018.

Does not look very well- probably Scholz needed somebody to curb arms industry circles to do what party says.

Nearly all German politicians were wrong about Russia. If you filter by that, there's not much choice left.
Of all the names that were in discussion, this one is a decent choice.

Pistorius has been in the army as a conscript, and he has been the minister of state in the state of Lower-Saxony for nearly 10 years. Lower-Saxony has quite a lot of military based. So at least some military connections in contrast to the previous ministers of defense.

He knows how to lead a large bureaucracy, and he is quite outspoken. Different personality from Scholz. He said 'Ukraine must win' in contrast to 'Ukraine must not lose' from Scholz. But he also said, that there needs to be some kind of communication with Russia after the war. So no Russian eater, either.

It is customary to give a new minister 100 days, but I guess this one has to get up to speed faster.

[Huba]

17 minutes ago, poesel said:

It is customary to give a new minister 100 days, but I guess this one has to get up to speed faster.

Ramstein happens on Friday, so yes, the schedule is a bit tighter than usually in situations like this  Seriously though, he sounds like an improvement so let's keep our fingers crossed.

Also this:

Edited January 17, 2023 by Huba

[Kinophile]

@Battlefront.com I'm curious on what capacity you're meeting that Deep State Deep Throat...

Your industry is niche within the military training regime,  you're not a published historian or (publicly) working analyst and BFC,  while certainly idiosyncratic in regard to other Mil sims,  is small fry. 

Is their interest in the products or your process,  or for your 10th Man take on things?

ie Are they seriously looking at CMBS? Or are they interested in how you and the team analyse the context, develop the backstory, flesh out the narrative and build the resulting campaigns? And/or from that,  looking at external takes on their current CoA? 

The ideas you listed are all future-pointing and national strategic level, yet CMBS is the most modern product you have but is almost a decade old and tactical level. So what are they plumbing your depths for?

Why you?  And why now? And why so broad a list? 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Kinophile

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, poesel said:

Nearly all German politicians were wrong about Russia. If you filter by that, there's not much choice left.
Of all the names that were in discussion, this one is a decent choice.

Pistorius has been in the army as a conscript, and he has been the minister of state in the state of Lower-Saxony for nearly 10 years. Lower-Saxony has quite a lot of military based. So at least some military connections in contrast to the previous ministers of defense.

He knows how to lead a large bureaucracy, and he is quite outspoken. Different personality from Scholz. He said 'Ukraine must win' in contrast to 'Ukraine must not lose' from Scholz. But he also said, that there needs to be some kind of communication with Russia after the war. So no Russian eater, either.

It is customary to give a new minister 100 days, but I guess this one has to get up to speed faster.

Well said. There is one thing that should be noted, anyway. The minister of defense will not be the person who gets to decide whether or not tanks are delivered to Ukraine. His job will be to organize it efficiently if the cabinet as a whole or the chancellor alone decide to go ahead with it. And it is hard to imagine that someone could do a worse job than Lambrecht.

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I appreciate the willingness of the IAEA to act like human shields and prevent funny business by Russia at any nuclear plants. A good step towards pushing international oversight of nuclear facilities during hostilities.

 

 

Head of the IAEA is the the only person in the United Nations penumbra that has done his job. Indeed he has done it heroically, and gotten everybody he works for to do the same.  He should 100% be the next Secretary General. Tell the Russians it is one the conditions for any sanctions relief.

[The_Capt]

42 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Or editing the video to show only the shells that hit?

If Ukraine has enough precision guided munitions to spend several of them hitting a couple of guys in a trench, then I think that is a very positive sign about their ammo stocks.

Could be, lot of spinning going on.  But if you look at the after shots only a few smoking craters, looks a lot like Excalibur rounds to me.

[The_Capt]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I just spent some time looking at the early pages of this thread just after hostilities commenced.  Wow... I forgot how many people were here telling us we just didn't understand that Russia had no choice but to clean out all those Nazis who caused so much pain and suffering in the Donbas for the past 8 years.  I remember this was followed by people that tried to debunk all the obvious signs Russia was losing and committing obvious war crimes.  Then we got to the wave of people that kept trying to tell us that Russia was going to pull a rabbit out of its arse and surprise the world with an astonishing victory!  And since then?  Not much of any of that.  Guess they got tired of making fools of themselves or their checks from Putin started to bounce

I also went through some old emails and found this from February 23rd before any Russian forces moved on Ukraine (a few cruise missiles only at this point):

Now there's something that aged well.

I posted this in hidden discussion area (Beta Testers) on the 24th about what Putin was thinking would happen:

This isn't to toot my horn about how smart I am, but instead show how f'n obvious Putin's plan was even within the first day.

If you look at this thread for the first few days we collectively fleshed this out to include the probable timetable, what Putin's core assumptions were, why they were wrong, how SCREWED Russia was even by Day 2, and all kinds of other things that turned out to be spot on correct.  And all through OSINT and some good brains kicking around ideas and observations.

Well done us!

Steve

Aw I kinda miss the pro-Russian crowd @dbsapp where are you?!

They all bolted pretty damn quick after 24 Feb as their entire Russian narratives fell apart.  It would be interesting to hear their twisted view of things, but that would just descend into nonsense pretty quick.  Of course some of them could be pushing sunflowers by now for all we know.

Edited January 17, 2023 by The_Capt

[womble]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Aw I kinda miss the pro-Russian crowd @dbsapp where are you?!

They all bolted pretty damn quick after 24 Feb as their entire Russian narratives fell apart.  It would be interesting to hear their twisted view of things, but that would just descend into none sense pretty quick.  Of course some of them could be pushing sunflowers by now for all we know.

I suspect a very few of them might still be here, were it not for the generous vacation allowance that Steve and Elvis have dished their way...

[Harmon Rabb]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Aw I kinda miss the pro-Russian crowd @dbsapp where are you?!

They all bolted pretty damn quick after 24 Feb as their entire Russian narratives fell apart.  It would be interesting to hear their twisted view of things, but that would just descend into none sense pretty quick.  Of course some of them could be pushing sunflowers by now for all we know.

I've had the "privilege" of speaking to those who support Putin and believe that Putin will "Win" this war on other parts of the internet.

Basically these days they are mostly hoping that mobilization will save Putin's invasion and claiming that if Ukraine is not able to take back the territory which Russia annexed, Putin won the war. 

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Battlefront.com I'm curious on what capacity you're meeting that Deep State Deep Throat...

Your industry is niche within the military training regime,  you're not a published historian or (publicly) working analyst and BFC,  while certainly idiosyncratic in regard to other Mil sims,  is small fry. 

Is their interest in the products or your process,  or for your 10th Man take on things?

ie Are they seriously looking at CMBS? Or are they interested in how you and the team analyse the context, develop the backstory, flesh out the narrative and build the resulting campaigns? And/or from that,  looking at external takes on their current CoA? 

The ideas you listed are all future-pointing and national strategic level, yet CMBS is the most modern product you have but is almost a decade old and tactical level. So what are they plumbing your depths for?

Why you?  And why now? And why so broad a list? 

[Butschi]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

If you look at this thread for the first few days we collectively fleshed this out to include the probable timetable, what Putin's core assumptions were, why they were wrong, how SCREWED Russia was even by Day 2, and all kinds of other things that turned out to be spot on correct.  And all through OSINT and some good brains kicking around ideas and observations.

Well done us!

Sounds nice when you put it like that. I for one remember that I came here quite puzzled because a few days before I would have sworn that if the US president claims to have information provided by some intelligence agency then this only proves that the contrary is true. And I was disappointed, in a twisted way, about Putin because I had thought he is much smarter than that. I remember telling my girlfriend that noone actually planning an invasion would be so stupid that he parked his army in such an obvious posture at the border months in advance because one of the most important parts of a strategy is the element of surprise. And that Putin usually plays chess not Roulette. So it was totally obvious to me that he can't be planning an invasion and instead wants to gain political concessions in one way or another. Oh well.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Butschi

[The_Capt]

Just now, Harmon Rabb said:

I've had the "privilege" of speaking to those who support Putin and believe that Putin will "Win" this war on other parts of the internet.

Basically these days they are mostly hoping that mobilization will save Putin's invasion and claiming that if Ukraine is not able to take back the territory which Russia annexed, Putin won the war. 

"Won the war"?  Russia has singlehandedly:

- Destroyed its ground forces and likely mauled its air and naval forces, if simply through funding attrition.  Its credibility as a modern military power is in tatters.

- Destroyed its international credibility and driven it towards economic isolation

- Driven Sweden, Finland, and very likely Ukraine itself into the arms of NATO

- Unified Europe and the Western world (and man, that was a tall order)

- Energized western military funding for at least a decade

- Will likely wind up a very vulnerable partner with whoever will do business with them in the future.

I am sure I am missing a few, everyone feel free to jump in.

Edited January 17, 2023 by The_Capt

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Neither clever, nor funny, nor campy, and absolutely not relevant.  You looking for a warning or something a bit more?

Steve

Yeah, not my best look, apologies. I'll save you the trouble though and step away for a bit.