How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Painful to see. We really should have sent IFVs earlier. Every delay of equipment costs lives.

 

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Painful to see. We really should have sent IFVs earlier. Every delay of equipment costs lives.

 

I don't see how heavier IFVs would make any difference.  From a few pages ago there was the description of fighting vehicles rushing forward, firing a bunch into the oncoming Russians, then beating a hasty retreat.  We also have from the reporting on Wagner's tactics that they don't seem to be employing vehicles as much as we're used to.  So a Humvee with a M2 is probably just about as good as a Bradley since it doesn't appear Wagner is shooting back.

Of course more and heavier is better, I'm just saying that the casualty count on Ukraine's side is unlikely to change.

What seems to be more useful is ensuring there is solid directed mortar support.,

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Has anybody seen a good analysis of why Ukraine hasn't launched a relief attack somewhere north or south of Soledar/Bakhmut to draw off pressure?  Russia's lines can't be all that densely defended.

Steve

[Beleg85]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Has anybody seen a good analysis of why Ukraine hasn't launched a relief attack somewhere north or south of Soledar/Bakhmut to draw off pressure?  Russia's lines can't be all that densely defended.

Steve

Russians are reportedly pressing hard on Kleschczenivka as well, Prihorodne is almost certainly lost and RU themselves put effort to hold other sections of the front from giving help. I think Mashovets this time was slightly overoptimistic- whole operation seems well planned and coordinated along entire sector. They are probably on guard in other places too- so far no news of AFU counterattacks somewhere else than this 10-20 kms parts of the front.

Even best analysts I track in with sources on the ground admitt that fog of war is too dense to tell anything certain today. Probably Soledar will be lost sooner or later. Still it is just one town, of course, and not a tragedy for AFU. Prigozhin is in absolutelly tiumphal mood, claims "Wagner and Wagner alone took the city" and again poses in some cave with his zeks. Natural environment for him.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Russians are reportedly pressing hard on Kleschczenivka as well, Prihorodne is almost certainly lost and RU themselves put effort to hold other sections of the front from giving help. I think Mashovets this time was slightly overoptimistic- whole operation seems well planned and coordinated along entire sector. They are probably on guard in other places too- so far no news of AFU counterattacks somewhere else than this 10-20 kms parts of the front.

Even best analysts I track in with sources on the ground admitt that fog of war is too dense to tell anything certain today. Probably Soledar will be lost sooner or later. Still it is just one town, of course, and not a tragedy for AFU. Prigozhin is in absolutelly tiumphal mood, claims "Wagner and Wagner alone took the city" and again poses in some cave with his zeks. Natural environment for him.

This does sound like it's as much about personal political prestige as much as anything else when I see that quote.  I wonder what cost wagner is paying for this and whether that will lead to consequences for them.

[Kinophile]

7 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Isn't it more that Soviet - and by extension Russian - air doctrine wasn't interested in trying to achieve and superiority in the sense that NATO thinks. The Russians focus on achieving temporary, local air superiority sufficient to be able to launch strikes in direct support of ground troops.  NATO tries to achieve permanent, theatre wide and superiority to use and power to hit rear areas to destroy logistics, HQs, communications and interdict movement.

Hence Russian and doctrine isn't too try and contest this with air power. Instead they focus on an array of ground based anti-air systems for defence, and punching local holes in enemy air cover for the duration of a single mission.

Since replacing an entire and defence network and air force is a very major undertaking, Ukraine also still has the legacy Soviet system, much the same as the Russians.

So neither side has an air force designed to maintain superiority over and behind enemy lines. And both sides (more so the Russians, at the start of the war at least) have plentiful  artillery, and that artillery is doctrinally supposed to fulfill the role that is the province of Close Air Support in NATO doctrine.

So I'd have thought it was to be expected that artillery would be playing much of the NATO CAS for in this conflict, because both sides have Soviet-legacy ground and and forces designed to fight that way. And while Ukraine is becoming more NATO-like in many ways, this is something that would require the complete retooling of most of the armed forces before it can be changed significantly.

Yes,  isn't this because RuAir is essentially conceived as battlefield support,  flying artillery, subordinate to ground needs rather than as a separate strategic arm? 

[Kinophile]

 

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1612852512838807557?t=jWgRiecngfJHGy2sGRYM1A&s=19

Come to Ukraine, dig a trench, get $90 for the day, die under the HIMARS god. 

Edited January 11, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1612852512838807557?t=jWgRiecngfJHGy2sGRYM1A&s=19

Come to Ukraine, dig a trench, get $90 for the day, die under the HIMARS god. 

I could be mistaken, but I am nearly positive that if workers are actively working on a military project they are legitimate targets under international law.

Steve

[fireship4]

First time I've seen a tank deploy smoke grenades in the war I think:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/10835jp/allegedly_a_t90m_tank_fires_at_enemy_positions/

[sburke]

about time.

Zelenskiy strips Putin ally Medvedchuk, three others of Ukrainian citizenship (yahoo.com)

[JonS]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I could be mistaken, but I am nearly positive that if workers are actively working on a military project they are legitimate targets under international law.

 

[dan/california]

It really does seem like the dam has broken and we are finally sending Ukraine enough stuff to actually WIN this bleeping thing. And yes I know it is a picture of a completely different munition than the one mentioned in the article.

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

First time I've seen a tank deploy smoke grenades in the war I think:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/10835jp/allegedly_a_t90m_tank_fires_at_enemy_positions/

Odd, me too.  I've seen a couple of tanks laying smoke screens (oil on engine), but not smoke grenades.

Given the level of training a Russian tanker has these days, I bet the guy thought he was pushing the cigarette lighter button and got smoke grenades instead

Steve

[FancyCat]

I wouldn't say the U.S approved of sending this stuff to Ukraine, Turkey likes to hedge bets.

[dan/california]

46 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I wouldn't say the U.S approved of sending this stuff to Ukraine, Turkey likes to hedge bets.

Turkey is also fond of cash, still great they are there. No shortage of targets.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I could be mistaken, but I am nearly positive that if workers are actively working on a military project they are legitimate targets under international law.

Steve

Oh absolutely. They weren't laying water pipe. Active contribution to fortifications. I bet they weren't told that they were a legitimate target.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Kinophile

[fireship4]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Odd, me too.  I've seen a couple of tanks laying smoke screens (oil on engine), but not smoke grenades.

Given the level of training a Russian tanker has these days, I bet the guy thought he was pushing the cigarette lighter button and got smoke grenades instead

Yes we discussed it when the footage of that failed river crossing emerged, there was plenty of smoke about but it seemed to be from engine injection and grenades or fires.  Shtora-1 (assuming that's what this was, shame the video wasn't closer in, we might have seen the turret slew before launch) might not have been useful in that case anyway, since the cloud persistence is claimed to be 20 seconds.  Still haven't seen anything conclusive on why it's been such a rare sight.

Cigarette lighter is coming on Armata.

[LongLeftFlank]

17 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You mean there is fractured misalignment between Ends and Means?  Kind of sounds like broken/non-existent strategy to me.  In the end a “bad” strategy that guarantees failure may be worse than no strategy at all.  The first is programming defeat, the second at least leaves glimmers of reactive hope.

For Russia I see no design here.  They are off their map.  Flailing may be the best move they have left.

Yes, in business it is far more usual than not that 'strategy' becomes an exercise in C-level groupthink and empty sloganeering.

The 'how do we get there' thesis is rarely quantified, still less actionable.

****

More tunnel complexes (from Strelkov), but less valuable against Wagner infantry tactics than against saturation artillery or even AFV direct fire.

OK fine, it's the other side's planes, but cool camouflage.

 

 

Edited January 11, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

All the 'numbers' cited here are rubbish (Roepcke is a goof in general), but the demographics chart of Ukraine is interesting. Russia and Belarus are similar.

 

 

[Ts4EVER]

Regarding the hybrid warfare potential of Russia: As I am sitting in my classroom here in Germany, looking out of the window, there is a massive traffic jam of trucks from all over eastern Europe. The reason: an as of yet unidentified truck has lost tons of white wax on the A7 Autobahn in the middle of the night. The first day after it happened we joked that it may have been a Russian act of sabotage. Now that we learned that this might take the whole week to clean up, some have started to believe it…

Turns out you could probably cripple all of Germany with 4 trucks full of white wax.

[LongLeftFlank]

Ha ha, like many academics, Doc Luttwak was always stronger on strategy than actual execution. He could have ended his Tweet at 'Of little use.'

Good fun at parties though, @billbindc

...Now if the Russians wanted to put these coffins to actual battlefield use, they'd pull off the 12.7mm turrets (stick them on bunkers or sumfink) and turn them into mortar carriers.

Low tech tactical firepower is all they can build in volume for now. Mortar tubes (and rocket rails) and ammo are a lot easier to machine than 152mm/203mm tubes and shells. 1930s tech.

[Grossman]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Has anybody seen a good analysis of why Ukraine hasn't launched a relief attack somewhere north or south of Soledar/Bakhmut to draw off pressure?  Russia's lines can't be all that densely defended.

Steve

Steve. I haven't read anything definitive on UKR military thinking, I would assume the UKR has put the eastern flank, the Soledar/Bakhmut axis on a defensive footing. The Wagner forces are grouped there and are running a skilful but very high attrition action. The UKR command appreciate the enemy does not have the forces there to mount a strategic offensive ( from NATO intel) so any setback will be local. The job there is to contain the front, as the Wagner forces deplete.  The UKR strategy is attrition of the enemy. Bodies are being piled high; what the UKR command has to do is minimalize loss of ground and personnel. Kill Russians. 

The UKR command meanwhile is grouping for a meaningful push, a strategic advance. This could be either in the Svatove area moving south as an outflanking manoeuvre, or more likely pounding south to the Sea of Azov to the east of Melitopol. I guess UKR are putting logistics in order and equipment. There are announcements daily on arms supplies from the west, whether this is adequate is anyone's guess. Baerbock is in Kharkiv today; German movement on Leopards is crucial.  

Overall I get the feeling our leaders are now coming around to the view that this is a conflict where the west cannot afford to let Putin win/ he cannot be allowed to gain from the brutal invasion (and Putin knows he cannot lose). Putin is escalating at every reverse. The US knows it cannot put boots on the ground, the war has to be won by the Europeans ( with US support).  The more heavy weaponry delivered now lowers the likelihood of European boots on the ground. It is vital that the Germans and French understand their responsibility.  Perhaps we will get an announcement on Leopards today or at least very soon. These tanks are needed in the field. For 2023 I see the conflict moving into deep, total war. The hegemony of the "Red Army" and Russian coercion has to be smashed

[Butschi]

31 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Regarding the hybrid warfare potential of Russia: As I am sitting in my classroom here in Germany, looking out of the window, there is a massive traffic jam of trucks from all over eastern Europe. The reason: an as of yet unidentified truck has lost tons of white wax on the A7 Autobahn in the middle of the night. The first day after it happened we joked that it may have been a Russian act of sabotage. Now that we learned that this might take the whole week to clean up, some have started to believe it…

Turns out you could probably cripple all of Germany with 4 trucks full of white wax.

That's Germany... *rolls eyes* We fiercly defend our god given right to cause a traffic jam by bringing the kids to school (which is 500m away, for which you need your SUV), by getting ourselves killed for driving at speeds the human brain is incapable of processing at a sufficient rate or by converting the road network into a giant warehouse (just in time delivery). But once performing this most holy rite can be remotely attributed to "the climate terrorists!" or "the Russians!" *shakes fists* we are on the barricades...

[Pete Wenman]

Some thoughts from Tom Cooper - posted at 19.45 last night so already over 12 hours out of date. My bold 
 

Quote

BTW, seems, Ukrainians have withdrawn from the centre of Soledar all the way back to the Mine No. 4.

In turn, a major counterattack from three sides has smashed whatever Russians were in Krasna Hora. With this, the M03 was re-opened. T0513 is still under a threat because of the Russian presence about 1,000m east of Blahodatne. The situation in Pidhorodne remains unclear.

'Reason': there's a general re-organisation of the ZSU in the Bakhmut area. Too many 'parts of units' from too many different brigades became involved. Several of disparate battalions have been withdrawn and replaced by additional battalions from brigades that are already there. That said, this process is likely to be complete only in about 2-3 days: that's as much as I'm giving the Russians for any additional advances.

Finally, the Keystone Cops - who are still ignoring the general assault on Bakhmut and Soledar in their daily briefings (guess, another conspiracy, eh Tupolev?) - have claimed three Ukrainian Su-25s as shot down today. All by VKS interceptors: one near Yasenevoye, another in the Pushkino area, and ne in the Maksimilyanovka.

and his update from this morning can be found here

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-11-january-2023-soledar-cf0cf0e6d5b7

Quote

Another rather short update, entirely focusing on the Soledar-Bakhmut area.

For the start: the crisis is far from over, but I think it’s high point is over

P

Edited January 11, 2023 by Pete Wenman

[Maciej Zwolinski]

13 hours ago, Haiduk said:

In many cases assault groups attack in some different way, than was described above. For example if suprize attack is need or arty support is not available, than assault groups try sneak under cover of terrain or in the night, fog, rain etc as close to UKR position as possiable and wait command. Then they divide on subgroups of suppressive fire (MG, RPG, RPO, RShG) and attackers. Latter rash to the UKR positions on the distacnce of grenade throwing and just rained it with grenades, which they carry in big number. If they can shock opponents with grenades they burst into trenches and clean it. 

Willy Rohr would be so proud