How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

Looks like AFU managed to damage the bridge in Melitopol. Apparently several spans may soon collapse.

https://t.me/tpkr1775/16081

[Zeleban]

 

And a new message from Mashovets.

 

- The enemy strike tactical group (mainly units of the 144th Motor Rifle Division - 448th and 254th MRR, diluted with a couple of companies of Lugansk "mobiks"), trying to break through to Torsky and Zarechny, apparently, goes on the defensive ...

According to the reports of the local Russian "commanders" ... their counter-attacks only led to the fact that the units suffered "losses that critically affected the level of combat capability of the advancing units" ...

- Near Svatovo, a Russian "disantura" (airborne troops) appeared ... somewhere up to a reinforced company of the 247th airborne infantry regiment from the 7th airborne infantry division ... with either 3 or 5 attached tanks .. They are trying to move towards Kolomyychikha, so far to no avail ... but on the air they swear very strongly and threaten to "tear the Ukrainian in half ...".

In general, apparently, the enemy in the Starobelsky direction can no longer be constantly in the mode of "permanent counterattacks", is running out of steam ... due to fairly significant losses ... And I warned that it would be "painful and pointless" if stubbornness to act in this way ...

 

But about this... and more... in more detail in tomorrow's review...

[Beleg85]

15 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Looks like AFU managed to damage the bridge in Melitopol. Apparently several spans may soon collapse.

https://t.me/tpkr1775/16081

Hmm...could we finally see shaping the battlefield? Last strikes also concentrated in the south-east, however this one rather seems like partisans or SF job.

Another video from Kraken unit liberatiing villages Kyselivka and Kotlarivka, some time ago:

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

 

Storm Shadows? What else could he meant? 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Huba

[Vanir Ausf B]

11 hours ago, FancyCat said:

A limited campaign to strike a tanker aircraft, or 1-4 strategic bombers, and that’s it, Russia would have to stop or risk further unsustainable damage to the strategic air fleet.

I mean we already helped sink the Moskva. Is the Admiral Makarov off limits due to being able to fire missiles against land targets? Russia has already virtually ignored the drone attack on the Engels air base. Wiki says it’s the only base where the Tu-160 is based at so another limited strike via ATACMS could force Russia to relocate or stop using it for missile strikes, certainly a important goal worth pursuing.

Something to keep in mind is that Dyagilevo and Engels-2 air bases are well outside of ATACMS range.

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

some time ago:

13th of October

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

We have very unstable weather during the week. About 0 day and below zero at the night (maximum -8 in one night) changes with +6 thaw two days ago with heavy rain and today's snowfall with -1

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Hmmm.... I doubt it actually. I think he will go down with the ship. Because he knows that there is no other country that will be safe for him.

Even if his old cronies in Venezuela can be trusted (and who is to say they can?), there's always the very real risk that they will be dethroned and suddenly there's a new government in charge.

Any new pro-western government would be quick to send Putin straight to the Hague. And I think Putin would rather die in his nest than risk that humiliation.

I'm not so sure.  I am sure that he won't give up until the last minute, but as discussed many times it doesn't look like he can trust staying in Russia like Yeltsin and Gorbachev did.  Whomever takes over for him in Russia is more likely to go the Serbia route, which is to stall handing over warcriminals and then eventually give in because they have no choice.  A nation like Venezuela has options Russia doesn't.  Especially because Putin alone has something like $100 billion in assets.  That buys a lot of favors and most will just be happy to have him gone.  History has a lot of examples of letting the guilty leader go into exile in exchange for a cleaner transition.

The big thing we don't know is how many years Putin thinks he has left in office and how many he thinks he has left to live.  If his health is horrible than his time in office is going to end sooner rather than later. 

I doubt Putin wants to spend his last few years of life in a cell in The Hague as Milosevic, shot dead in a culvert like Gaddafi, or swinging from a noose like Saddam.  I think he'd prefer exile than these options.

Steve

[billbindc]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm not so sure.  I am sure that he won't give up until the last minute, but as discussed many times it doesn't look like he can trust staying in Russia like Yeltsin and Gorbachev did.  Whomever takes over for him in Russia is more likely to go the Serbia route, which is to stall handing over warcriminals and then eventually give in because they have no choice.  A nation like Venezuela has options Russia doesn't.  Especially because Putin alone has something like $100 billion in assets.  That buys a lot of favors and most will just be happy to have him gone.  History has a lot of examples of letting the guilty leader go into exile in exchange for a cleaner transition.

The big thing we don't know is how many years Putin thinks he has left in office and how many he thinks he has left to live.  If his health is horrible than his time in office is going to end sooner rather than later. 

I doubt Putin wants to spend his last few years of life in a cell in The Hague as Milosevic, shot dead in a culvert like Gaddafi, or swinging from a noose like Saddam.  I think he'd prefer exile than these options.

Steve

If Putin has an exit strategy, Venezuela is a pretty bad one. Yes, the country is a shambles and very anti-American but it's also a shambles that needs money and has rulers who aren't particular about how they get it. Sudan extorting OBL is a primary example the Russians won't miss. Look instead to Saudi Arabia as a more likely choice. It was the power to defy the US to a significant degree and it has form...as its hosting of Idi Amin should suggest. And MBS can claim that he's taking one for global peace by giving Putin an out.

[MikeyD]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Looks like AFU managed to damage the bridge in Melitopol.

From the look of it, I wonder if the Russians did it to themselves. The damage (that we can see) looks less like a strike on the bridge and more like its weight limit was exceeded and it buckled.

[Haiduk]

Looks like Wagner troops used period of adaptation of likely 128th mountain-assault brigade, which substituted 93rd mech.brigade near Bakhmut.

During previous 2-3 days Wagner completely seized building ceramic factory and approached to "Sinata" plastoboard factory. But much worse thing happened yesterday  - as wrote one soldier from there: "128th let us down again. Minus 2 platoon strongpoints. Guys! To gather yourself!" - and on situation maps was pointed that Russians crossed the pounds line and seized small part of the city area (or at least by other info this is contested area now). 

Bakhmut divided by Bakhmutka river on two almost equal parts. Eastern part has a name Zabakhmutka (i.e "over the Bakhmutka") and on 90 % consists of cottadges.

Also this soldier, mentioned above wrote as if PMC got an order to capture Bakhmut to 1st of January, else commanders, especially "zek"-units will be repressed. Also he wrote looks like enemy has intentions to encircle Toretsk town (between Horlivka, Bakhmut and Kostiantynivka) with simultainous attack from Kurdiumivka by PMC and VDV and from Horlivka by units of 3rd MRR of DPR.  

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

59 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Something to keep in mind is that Dyagilevo and Engels-2 air bases are well outside of ATACMS range.

Wonderful. If Ukraine can illustrate continued capability to use Tu-141 to impact those air bases, ATACMS can potentially be normalized as being less esculatory than the Tu-141s, having less range.

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Wonderful. If Ukraine can illustrate continued capability to use Tu-141 to impact those air bases, ATACMS can potentially be normalized as being less esculatory than the Tu-141s, having less range.

Too bad it doesn't look like Tu-141s were used outside of the Soviet Union, otherwise there might be a pile of them to gather up from former Warsaw Pact countries.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, billbindc said:

If Putin has an exit strategy, Venezuela is a pretty bad one. Yes, the country is a shambles and very anti-American but it's also a shambles that needs money and has rulers who aren't particular about how they get it. Sudan extorting OBL is a primary example the Russians won't miss. Look instead to Saudi Arabia as a more likely choice. It was the power to defy the US to a significant degree and it has form...as its hosting of Idi Amin should suggest. And MBS can claim that he's taking one for global peace by giving Putin an out.

Yeah, I was just repeating Venezuela... I'm sure it wouldn't be Putin's first choice.  Somewhere in the Middle East makes sense.  For sure if he went to Syria he'd have no problems staying there.

Without US/EU blessing, though, I don't see there being a lot of countries willing to take on the hit of hosting not only Putin but other members of the leadership cast that The Hague would be interested in.  Lavrov... I'm looking at you, buddy.  I'm not sure Saudi Arabia would opt in on its own as weapons supplied to the country might suddenly dry up.

All of this aside, the theory that Putin's Chef is readying a force big enough to secure a defacto state within a state does make a lot of sense.  Putin would never get a good night's sleep even with that force surrounding him, but I doubt the US/EU would pressure a new Russian government to conduct a full scale internal war to get at him.

Steve

[kevinkin]

6 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Things have recently improved dramatically with both awareness and treatment.

Thankfully. That's why a comparative analysis would have been interesting. How the US improved its approach etc.. But maybe that's an entire book, so I can give the writer a break. 

[danfrodo]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

shot dead in a culvert like Gaddafi,

ah, that was a touching moment that still brings joy to my heart, thanks for reminding me of it.

Meanwhile, NYTimes op-ed today on Iranian situation.  He believes that end could (note 'could') be near as it has all the hallmarks of other dictatorial regimes running out of time.  I bring this up in this UKR war forum because if there were regime change in Iran maybe that could cost Putin one of his most important allies.  For all we know the new regime might sell their wares to UKR -- not saying that's likely, of course.  But maybe the flow to Putin would stop if the new regime wanted less hostility w the west.  (paywall)

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/opinion/iran-protests-veil-khamenei.html

 

 

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Too bad it doesn't look like Tu-141s were used outside of the Soviet Union, otherwise there might be a pile of them to gather up from former Warsaw Pact countries.

Steve

Tu-141 had been produced in Kharkiv and it's engine KR-17A was designed and produced in Zaporizhzhia. I think, all documentation was saved, but I doubt it is possible to renew a manufacturing of this UAV in variant of cheap cruise missile. 

[Zeleban]

Some features of the attack on Russian positions from a fighter of the international legion

Edited December 12, 2022 by Zeleban

[Haiduk]

46 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

From the look of it, I wonder if the Russians did it to themselves. The damage (that we can see) looks less like a strike on the bridge and more like its weight limit was exceeded and it buckled.

City camera fixed explosion sound. Local blogger and collaborationist Rogov, claims this was not HIMARS strike, but diversion - the charge as if was put on bridge support

 

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Anonymous_Jonze]

Interesting interview from the perspective of a Brit in the International Legion.

[dan/california]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-complains-ukraine-military-aggressive-behavior-sergey-vershinin-turkey-1766296

 

A bit of comic relief, courtesy of the Russian MFA.

[womble]

On Anti-drone warfare:

How scalable is the tech for MANPADS/air-to-air missiles? Obviously, it's not cost-effective to shoot down a quadcopter with a Stinger or an IRIS, but could a smaller, less capable missile be developed that has "just enough" range and payload (or inherent KE, if you go for a collision solution rather than a flak head/shotgun shell) to neutralise a small or medium drone?

You'd need to detect the loitering spy's presence first, but there seems to have been some work done on audio-location and recognition of the noisy li'l critters. Perhaps a larger drone airframe with the kill-missiles, and some friendly little drones scouting out as its 'ears' and then 'eyes'?

Or a backpack sized thing with the audio detection and ranging stuff and a magazine of mini-missiles to fire off.

[Haiduk]

43rd high-powewr artillery brigade (2S7) got first PzH2000

Now in 43rd. German aid

Characteristic: Accurately and significantly faster. Much more work now too

It's worth of sepatrate story, how theese guns are saving Bakhmut and our infantry

PS. "Pions" havn't dissapeared. We also still have them

 

[Huba]

Drone takes the enemy drone prisoner. Insane.