How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

Foreign volunteers going to Ukraine at the war's start remind me of foreign volunteers heading to France at the outbreak of WWI. What they imagined they were getting into (a dashing, manly adventure) and what they experienced were two different things. That's a common theme for most wars' openings. I have a recollection that the battle of Fallujah came about because a former realty TV contestant went into Iraq as a mercenary and got himself done-in in a particularly brutal fashion in that town. The subsequent battle was retribution for the mercenary deaths.

Edited December 8, 2022 by MikeyD

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://morningconsult.com/2022/11/29/united-states-foreign-policy-expectations-democrats-republicans/

Committed partisans will of course see whatever they want to see here, but I find these forced ranking exercises interesting, as a general 'world view' emerges.

Of course, it's also heavily influenced by the choices provided and the specific wording of these choices.  Notice some are very specific 'upholding, securing, preventing', others are kind of vague: 'US-China relations'

Look at the top choices: Immigration for Red and Climate Change (global warming) for Blue. Most intriguing as they will be joined at the hip as drought and increasing water and food scarcity force increasingly large populations to move or perish. Conflict is inevitable.

[LongLeftFlank]

Novoselivske, north of Svatove. 

Preview from the new CM3 game... 

Posed shot, but RU soldiers look tolerably well equipped.

(pro-Russian Serb but does post interesting stuff now and then)

****

Leaving this here, but no idea what this actually is, or which side. It does however look like an impromptu execution, real or posed.

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[kevinkin]

ISW for 12/7/22: Ploshchanka

I drew a huge map using an overlay of around the P66 intersection back a few months ago. Little did I know that the fighting would be so intense there. There is so little cover. What tactics could be in play on this type of ground? Maybe my map needs more subtle undulations and loosely dispersed brush-like concealment. Perhaps engineered structures would be more accurate. I don't know. Killing fields like this are all over the front now. The tweet above illustrates this. 

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in the direction of Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna) and that Ukrainian forces withdrew from strongholds southwest of Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna).[30] Another Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army are slowly advancing in the vicinity of Kreminna.[31] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted assaults within 21km northwest of Kreminna near Ploshchanka and Chervonopopivka as well as along the Makiivka-Ploshchanka highway.[32] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued routine indirect fire along the line of contact in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk oblasts.[33]

[Reclaimer]

57 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Leaving this here, but no idea what this actually is, or which side. It does however look like an impromptu execution, real or posed.

I'm trying to be cautious of my very pro-Ukrainian bias, but that looks super staged to me. The "executed" guys seem remarkably chill about the whole thing. Three of them and four guards and they walk that obediently to their deaths? They even hurry into position at the end. They're not being moved at gunpoint. As far as I can see, the guards are holding their weapons at the low ready right up until they fire. They're clearly not blind folded, because they line up pretty neatly without anyone guiding them into position (and you can clearly see that there are a bunch of branches on the ground). Then, immediately after the "execution" there's a cut so the drone can get close enough to see the armbands (note the poster explicitly points these armbands out as evidence that they're Ukrainians and the armbands are only really visible in that last bit). Pretty helpful of the guards to stay lined up like that while the drone got into position for the final shot. And then the guards see the drone and open fire - that's pretty convenient timing so you can cut the drone footage and the "executed" guys can get back up.

Unless new information comes out about this via some other channel, I'm going to say that this is staged. And not even staged very convincingly.

[LongLeftFlank]

56 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

What tactics could be in play on this type of ground? Maybe my map needs more subtle undulations and loosely dispersed brush-like concealment. Perhaps engineered structures would be more accurate. I don't know. Killing fields like this are all over the front now. The tweet above illustrates this. 

Yes, undulations are very important tactically. This region gets a lot of precipitation seasonally, as well as snowmelt. That water flows away someplace, cutting deeply into the land. You can see the major streams (steep banks) and also the numerous ravines (yars) that feed them. Those ravines are in turn fed by gullies, which will be filled with brush and scrubby trees. Farmers will cut their own additional drains as needed.

Kind of like the US Great Plains (Missouri river valley).

Edited December 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

"The Russian forces, apparently, modified the drones to keep them in the minds of the colder weather and, better than everything, the nearest days, more and more often to strike at the Ukrainian critical infrastructure," the analysts write.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Zeleban

[Bulletpoint]

33 minutes ago, Reclaimer said:

I'm trying to be cautious of my very pro-Ukrainian bias, but that looks super staged to me. The "executed" guys seem remarkably chill about the whole thing. Three of them and four guards and they walk that obediently to their deaths? They even hurry into position at the end. They're not being moved at gunpoint. As far as I can see, the guards are holding their weapons at the low ready right up until they fire. They're clearly not blind folded, because they line up pretty neatly without anyone guiding them into position (and you can clearly see that there are a bunch of branches on the ground). Then, immediately after the "execution" there's a cut so the drone can get close enough to see the armbands (note the poster explicitly points these armbands out as evidence that they're Ukrainians and the armbands are only really visible in that last bit). Pretty helpful of the guards to stay lined up like that while the drone got into position for the final shot. And then the guards see the drone and open fire - that's pretty convenient timing so you can cut the drone footage and the "executed" guys can get back up.

Unless new information comes out about this via some other channel, I'm going to say that this is staged. And not even staged very convincingly.

Also notice that at the very end of the video, the guys lower their weapons and stop shooting at the drone. But the drone is not crashing at that moment. It's just starting to move away. If they were really trying to shoot it down, they'd keep firing as long as it remained in sight. It could be that they lower the rifles to reload of course.

That being said, could there be summary executions in the AFU? Yes I believe so. The video posted recently of the British volunteer returning from Ukraine said several of the foreign volunteers had been quick to start looting the moment they got the chance after a Russian missile attack.

[Bulletpoint]

Now that Putin is playing down the nuclear threat, maybe that means he has begun to feel more confident he can keep his gains conventionally? As Russians dig in, continue to mobilise, and winter has arrived.

 

"Such a threat is growing, it would be wrong to hide it," Putin warned while talking about the prospect of nuclear war via video link from Moscow.

But he asserted that Russia would "under no circumstances" use the weapons first, and would not threaten anyone with its nuclear arsenal.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63893316

 

 

[Anon052]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Also notice that at the very end of the video, the guys lower their weapons and stop shooting at the drone. But the drone is not crashing at that moment. It's just starting to move away. If they were really trying to shoot it down, they'd keep firing as long as it remained in sight. It could be that they lower the rifles to reload of course.

That being said, could there be summary executions in the AFU? Yes I believe so. The video posted recently of the British volunteer returning from Ukraine said several of the foreign volunteers had been quick to start looting the moment they got the chance after a Russian missile attack.

And the time this Video was released is very suspicous. Just after Putin stating that the ukrainian army is executing their  men for desertion.

This Video needs to be georeferenced, to see where it was taken.

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for the summary.

For me, the biggest disappointment in the Ukrainians so far has been mishandling all of the foreign volunteers coming at their own expense to fight the Russians.  I've seen way too many first hand accounts of the poor Ukrainian leadership, corruption, and poor integration into the frontline to think it's just a couple of grumblers making too much out of nothing.  My sense is things have gotten better over time, but I'm not sure if this guy can confirm it or not.

Some of those foreigners who left did so because they didn't feel they would survive the problems.  However, I absolutely expect the majority who left couldn't hack the conditions they were under.  There were only a few times in Iraq and Afghanistan where there was intense fighting, most of it urban, and that was with overwhelming domination of everything.  Proportionally few veterans experienced that intensity of fighting, and what is going on in Ukraine dwarfs even that.  So it is not surprising at all to hear NATO vets finding their previous combat experience didn't prepare them for this war.

Many years ago a US Army brigade commander told me he didn't think his guys would do well in a full up conventional war, despite just returning from a successful rotation in Afghanistan when things weren't quiet.  He mentioned artillery explicitly as a huge concern.  Taliban would rocket and mortar positions, true, but I bet the Taliban didn't fire as many rounds in 20 years as the Russians unloaded in a day on small sectors of frontage. 

Steve

Absolutely true.  In the western military experience - with very few isolated exceptions - the last time we were anywhere near something like this was the Balkans, and there are damned few of us left who recall that one.  And there we were largely on the sidelines but combat did reach these levels of exchange but nowhere near as pervasive.

To really get back to this level of conventional intensity would have to be Korea, I don’t think even Vietnam this level of parity in combat.  This is why all the GOs and definitely the YouTube SOF-bros have very little real world experience to draw upon. Add to this warfare is changing under our feet as this thing unfolds.  Every war is the same, but every war is very different.

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yes, undulations are very important tactically.

You can't pick those up via Google maps. But the terrain can't be a pool table either. Will have to find some ground level views to provide examples. Thanks.

[kevinkin]

For what it's worth ... 

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-preparing-flee-russia-implodes-162403585.html

 

[Beleg85]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

For those with time, an entertaining memoir of the chaotic early days of the Foreign Legion by 'Big Mac', a cheerful British volunteer whose nonmilitary background is in rock festivals. He served 7 months (less 4 weeks away with Lyme disease) as an ADC to the company CO, mostly in a swampy area east of Kharkiv.

First 20 minutes he rambles about the Day 3 missile strike on the foreign base, which you can skip if you like*. The last 5 is Lindybeige doing the necessary sponsor promos, so the meat of it is about 20 minutes. Cliff notes here....

• 23:00 The Duty Experience: 'If you're fighting the Russians, you're mostly in a muddy hole getting horribly shelled. There is no sweet spot. It isn't Call of Duty.' 
• About 700 of 1000 volunteers either went home or found other units. A lot of the Western stanbox vets couldn't handle the mortar stonks ('Goldilocks soldiers'). 
• American non-vets were often better than the Army guys. 'We don't get air support mate...'
• Few guys brought much in the way of kit; they expected it all to be provided.
• Casevac was initially on foot to a civilian car, weather conditions. Nobody gets 30 minute casevac, it's more like an hour or two.
• Rifles maybe account for 1% of the killing; it's all HE.
• Overall he doesn't have very much good to say about the Ukrainian officers. A lot of ex-Soviet inefficiency in their procedures, and also a lot of nepotism and corruption; 2 trucks of modern small arms went missing.
• USMC vet and businessman became the platoon leader.
• A lot of the self-described special operators were weeded out early on Boy Scout level basic woodcraft.
• A lot of Western militaries don't issue mess tins anymore.
• Nobody in A'stan had to light a fire or gut a goat.
• Be grateful we have wet wipes. Richard would have won the Crusades with them.
• Covid and Flu was rampant in the spring.

* One interesing bit: the Russians may simply have useed the large concentration of foreign simcards to locate and target the base, rather than having spies on the inside.

Good link. This situation regarding FL may not be actual indeed- fighting in Severdonetsk cauldron really filtered the unit and changed it a lot. Those who had any rambo/adventure attitudes simply left; those who stayed know what to expect now. There was definitelly a lot of toxic atmosphere by that time- it's worth to mention one of founders of the legion was Warsaw gangster with EU warrant for years hiding in Ukraine. Initially even some serious bullying by several members of the unit was being reported toward new members. They did reformed somewhat from that point, though.

Now a pattern for volunteers seems to be joining concrete detachments from the start- the whole structure of the Legion is quite peculiar, as it is only organizational and by any means tactical unit like International Brigades in Spanish Civil War were. Folks fight on every front at once, in very small close-knitt platoons (often sized as squads), disjoined from one another. Other volunteers confirmed they rarely see other Internationals and mainly cooperate with local Ukrainian brigades.

[billbindc]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

More evidence of how utterly vacant the average Russian's mind is.  Or their soul.  Or both.

Putin just admitted that he's been lying to his people for more than 8 months that the war has been going swimmingly.  Absolutely nothing truthful about how this has cost Russia so many lives, economic distress, and being cut off from the world.  Not to mention the crackdowns on the ability to criticize the government, receive payments due for military death benefits, etc.  And now Putin is saying this is going to keep going on for quite a long time while also having to deny that the army is deserting.

Wow.  I mean, I know this is the reality for Russians, but still... wow.

Steve

P.S. note I didn't mention anything about them wondering what the point of the war is or what it is doing to Ukraine.  Not relevant in their minds, so why bother pointing it out?

One notable thing from that speech is the rhetorical climbdown from nuclear weapons. I think we can say at this point that that option is pretty much off the table. 

[Seedorf81]

5 hours ago, Reclaimer said:

I'm trying to be cautious of my very pro-Ukrainian bias, but that looks super staged to me. The "executed" guys seem remarkably chill about the whole thing. Three of them and four guards and they walk that obediently to their deaths? They even hurry into position at the end. They're not being moved at gunpoint. As far as I can see, the guards are holding their weapons at the low ready right up until they fire. They're clearly not blind folded, because they line up pretty neatly without anyone guiding them into position (and you can clearly see that there are a bunch of branches on the ground). Then, immediately after the "execution" there's a cut so the drone can get close enough to see the armbands (note the poster explicitly points these armbands out as evidence that they're Ukrainians and the armbands are only really visible in that last bit). Pretty helpful of the guards to stay lined up like that while the drone got into position for the final shot. And then the guards see the drone and open fire - that's pretty convenient timing so you can cut the drone footage and the "executed" guys can get back up.

Unless new information comes out about this via some other channel, I'm going to say that this is staged. And not even staged very convincingly.

About going quiet to execution.

If you do a tiny bit of not very difficult research you'll find that nearly all people who know that they're gonna be executed, are usually strangely docile. That behaviour is way more "normal" than resisting.

See:

Jews being shot by Einsatzgruppen

Chinese being buried alive ( or beheaded or shot etc) by the Japanese.

French, Dutch, Belgian, Greek, Yugoslav, Russian (etc etc) partisans being hanged or shot by Germans.

Russians executed by early RED army, White Army, Gpoe, KGB etc,

German warcriminals behing hanged, strangled or shot by Poles, Dutch, Americans, Tsjechs etc,

Iranians hanged by their government,

and the list is very, very long.

I don't know why, but it is very rare that people put up a fight.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Seedorf81

[Bulletpoint]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

For those with time, an entertaining memoir of the chaotic early days of the Foreign Legion by 'Big Mac', a cheerful British volunteer whose nonmilitary background is in rock festivals. He served 7 months (less 4 weeks away with Lyme disease) as an ADC to the company CO, mostly in a swampy area east of Kharkiv.

First 20 minutes he rambles about the Day 3 missile strike on the foreign base, which you can skip if you like*. The last 5 is Lindybeige doing the necessary sponsor promos, so the meat of it is about 20 minutes. Cliff notes here....

• 23:00 The Duty Experience: 'If you're fighting the Russians, you're mostly in a muddy hole getting horribly shelled. There is no sweet spot. It isn't Call of Duty.' 
• About 700 of 1000 volunteers either went home or found other units. A lot of the Western stanbox vets couldn't handle the mortar stonks ('Goldilocks soldiers'). 
• American non-vets were often better than the Army guys. 'We don't get air support mate...'
• Few guys brought much in the way of kit; they expected it all to be provided.
• Casevac was initially on foot to a civilian car, weather conditions. Nobody gets 30 minute casevac, it's more like an hour or two.
• Rifles maybe account for 1% of the killing; it's all HE.
• Overall he doesn't have very much good to say about the Ukrainian officers. A lot of ex-Soviet inefficiency in their procedures, and also a lot of nepotism and corruption; 2 trucks of modern small arms went missing.
• USMC vet and businessman became the platoon leader.
• A lot of the self-described special operators were weeded out early on Boy Scout level basic woodcraft.
• A lot of Western militaries don't issue mess tins anymore.
• Nobody in A'stan had to light a fire or gut a goat.
• Be grateful we have wet wipes. Richard would have won the Crusades with them.
• Covid and Flu was rampant in the spring.

* One interesing bit: the Russians may simply have useed the large concentration of foreign simcards to locate and target the base, rather than having spies on the inside.

I think you forgot the most interesting part. The one where he talks about many of the volunteers being looters. Starts at 16:00 in the video.

[kevinkin]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-11516861/WNBA-star-Brittney-Griner-RELEASED-Russia-1-1-prisoner-swap.html

 

[danfrodo]

26 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-11516861/WNBA-star-Brittney-Griner-RELEASED-Russia-1-1-prisoner-swap.html

 

this is great, and I'm seeing it confirmed elsewhere.  There's another, less famous US hostage that is still there, and I hope Biden admin keeps fighting to get him out also.  I think we can safely safe that the head of Putin's tourism department has their work cut out for them after the war.  "Come visit Russia!  We probably won't kidnap you anymore!"

[RandomCommenter]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

this is great, and I'm seeing it confirmed elsewhere.  There's another, less famous US hostage that is still there, and I hope Biden admin keeps fighting to get him out also.  I think we can safely safe that the head of Putin's tourism department has their work cut out for them after the war.  "Come visit Russia!  We probably won't kidnap you anymore!"

I have mixed feelings about this. I am happy that Britney Griner is out. She must have gone through hell. 

 

But this guy that Biden exchanged for her, Victor Bout, is a really bad egg.

 

I am afraid that we may be setting a precedent that you can arrest any random American citizen on trumped up charges and we will exchange anyone you want for them. It feels a bit like paying a kidnapper a ransom. You are only asking for it to happen again.

[Bulletpoint]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I think we can safely safe that the head of Putin's tourism department has their work cut out for them after the war.  "Come visit Russia!  We probably won't kidnap you anymore!"

"We also have great casinos where you can play Russian Roulette"

[Billy Ringo]

Viktor Bout:  Was convicted by a jury in a Manhattan federal court of conspiracy to kill U.S. citizens and officials, delivery of anti-aircraft missiles, and providing aid to a terrorist organization, and was sentenced to the minimum 25 years' imprisonment,

Maybe it's just me, but I don't think much of this trade.  Cold blooded, connected and experienced killer with the potential to harm/kill Americans in the future.  Griner's "celebrity" status should not have made her a priority.

One of these two has the potential to kill Americans.  The other dribbles a basketball.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Billy Ringo
Cold blooded killer

[Blazing 88's]

7 hours ago, Reclaimer said:

I'm trying to be cautious of my very pro-Ukrainian bias, but that looks super staged to me. The "executed" guys seem remarkably chill about the whole thing. Three of them and four guards and they walk that obediently to their deaths? They even hurry into position at the end. They're not being moved at gunpoint. As far as I can see, the guards are holding their weapons at the low ready right up until they fire. They're clearly not blind folded, because they line up pretty neatly without anyone guiding them into position (and you can clearly see that there are a bunch of branches on the ground). Then, immediately after the "execution" there's a cut so the drone can get close enough to see the armbands (note the poster explicitly points these armbands out as evidence that they're Ukrainians and the armbands are only really visible in that last bit). Pretty helpful of the guards to stay lined up like that while the drone got into position for the final shot. And then the guards see the drone and open fire - that's pretty convenient timing so you can cut the drone footage and the "executed" guys can get back up.

Unless new information comes out about this via some other channel, I'm going to say that this is staged. And not even staged very convincingly.

Make sure to pass that on to the "blonde".

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

I have mixed feelings about this. I am happy that Britney Griner is out. She must have gone through hell. 

 

But this guy that Biden exchanged for her, Victor Bout, is a really bad egg.

 

I am afraid that we may be setting a precedent that you can arrest any random American citizen on trumped up charges and we will exchange anyone you want for them. It feels a bit like paying a kidnapper a ransom. You are only asking for it to happen again.

Yeah, the price was high -- which was probably why it took so long.  I'm only disappointed we didn't get the other guy out also.  RU holds the cards in this.  Option B is Greiner sits in jail forever.  We've made prisoner exchanges like this before.  And the precedent we're sending is not good, while the precedent RU is sending is way worse -- "western foreign nationals, come to RU for business and get kidnapped".  

So what's the higher price?  Letting one criminal walk, a man who wouldn't be allowed to travel anywhere in the west ever again.  Or letting an innocent american rot in jail the rest of her life.  I am making that trade.

[Chibot Mk IX]

18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

An article (in Ukrainian) how Ukrainian volunteers-engineers from Respeechers and i3 Engineering companies and programmers, serving in 125th TD Brigade, created AI warning system ZVOOK (from UKR. "zvuk" -  "sound"). This system allows to complement possibilities of Air Defense radars to detect approaching missiles and kamikadze drones - it's sound sensors listen the air, select suspicious sound, AI analyzes it and if the signal is matches to threat sound, it transmits alarm via cell phones towers to Air Defense datacenters. By the placement of activated sensor,  AD can decide to react on that direction. 

This system had been developing four months and was set up immediately after AI could detect true signal at 50/50 level - because we had a lack of radar covering - on the meeting develppers with Lviv oblast administration, representatives of cell phone operators and militaries they got permission to launch the first trial systems. Gradually engineers enchanced sound mirrors, electronics and could learn AI to work almost without mistakes. Interesting, that most problematic was to learn AI to differ a sound of cruise missile from cows mooing.

In present time 40 ZVOOK sensors already installed on more critical directions, but developers say there are need 600 sensors throughout all country in several echelones to be effective complement of radars.

That's brilliant! 

SOSUS , The Sound Surveillance Sonar array System come into my mind. Yes, the more of these devices the better, as the target can be triangulated.  

 

Quote

In plans of developers - to make the system capable to determine a coordinates, speed and course of target. Now it can determinate approximately a bearing and elevation angle. Also developers want to scale the project and turn it in future to commercial product.

I guess Ukrainian engineer should have already know that, even with the bearing itself it should be able to calculate the coordinates and course.

If a target can be quickly classified with sound signature then we will know the speed. Then distance and course can be calculated with the bearing rate changes. 

 

 

Right now the sensor is in a shortage, but later it will running out of cellphone towers to install the device. Maybe in the future the engineer can explore the option, hanging the sensors on a balloon?