How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

47 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I suspect we will have a conclusive answer to that question the day after spring mud season ends if we don't before. My suspicion is that the Russians won't like the answer much, but we shall see.

Why would you want to give Russia that long to rebuild ammo stocks, lay another gazillion mines and buy whatever Chinese tech gear they can for cash? Remember how even those 1943 era Iranian buzz bombs were quite a nasty surprise? I guarantee you those factory orders are already in and gearing up for production. We stupidly offshored most of the Arsenal of Democracy to an even more rapacious, mercantile civilisation, and this is the price of that.

...I have never yet seen any sign that the benighted Russian army will rot away all on its own without first getting a very hard shove. Collapse is induced, and has proved costly when you give Ivan time to prepare.

****

I was thinking more in terms of about 250 independent battalions of white clad, droned-up, missile-toting, veteran-led infantry materialising out of the taiga and tundra, at countless points all along the front.

...I got yer snow eating fog right here boychik.

Or in historical terms, hey Surovikin, how about 20 sets of lethal swirling blades all simultaneously heading for

URANUS

Edited December 4, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Yet]

12 hours ago, Zeleban said:

A new word in military technology, Russian tanks are terrified

Thats a good cover-up story!

We all know that these will drive up to occupied area, hook up some RU tanks and retrieve them like in old Ukrainian tradition. 

[Zeleban]

Mashovets has released a new post.

Yes, today is Sunday... so the summary will be short

1. The enemy continues to build up his efforts south of Bakhmut. In the Kurdyumovka area, his command deployed at least 2 additional "consolidated" battalions from the 106th Airborne Division (partially already committed to battle).

 

The main task, together with the forward units of the Wagner PMC, is to break through to the Belaya Gora-Kleshchievka line. And thus create favorable conditions for themselves for the development of a further offensive, both in the direction of Konstantinovka, and in the direction of Ivanovskoye and Bakhmut (from the south).

2. The total number of Russian troops on the territory of Belarus may soon reach 20-22 thousand military personnel (the basis of the group will be units and subunits of the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division from the 1st Guards and CAA). Now this number is 10.5 thousand military personnel and is gradually growing ...

To date, the command of the enemy troops continues to intensively transfer manpower and partly weapons and military equipment to the so-called joint Russian-Belarusian "combat training centers", where the process of active combat training of both Russian and Belarusian troops will be launched (the cycle of exercises in the Republic of Belarus "officially extended at least until December 12th).

An interesting feature of this process is the fact that the transfer of personnel of the Russian troops in comparison with the movement of their weapons and military equipment is taking place at a significantly higher rate. In particular, today these units and subunits are equipped with weapons and military equipment on the territory of Belarus for only a third, or in some cases, even a quarter of the regular number. This is quite enough for intensive combat training, but clearly not enough for the deployment of active combat operations.

3. During December 2-3, the command of the enemy troops in the Melitopol direction continued to build up their efforts along the Vasilyevka-Tokmak line. In particular, a “consolidated” BTGr of the Russian Airborne Forces (probably from the 83rd Guards Airborne Brigade) was moved to this area through Melitopol and the villages of Mirnoye and Terpenye. In total, the enemy moved here 45 units of weapons and military equipment (of which at least 33 units of BMD-2\3 and MT-LB).

In addition, north and east of Tokmak, the enemy command continues to actively equip at least two battalion defense areas in order to cover the Tokmak-Vasilyevka road, as well as the direction from Tokmak to Berdyansk.

Thus, the total scale of the grouping of enemy troops in the Melitopol direction approximately reached the level of 10-12 BTGr, lined up in a two-echelon battle formation. This is without taking into account the operational-tactical reserves of the enemy (mainly from the troops of the Eastern Military District, that is, the 35th, 36th and 29th CAA, withdrawn from the Kherson direction), also located in this zone - up to 6 battalions.

It is obvious that the command of the enemy troops is trying most reliably under any conditions to cover the approaches to the Crimean isthmuses, both from the north (from the side of Zaporozhye) and from the west (that is, from the side of Kherson). This is evidenced by the fact that it is in this operational zone that the main part of the enemy troops is still located, which was previously withdrawn from the Kherson-Berislav bridgehead, or was located directly in its operational-tactical rear.

[Zeleban]

4. The Russian military command of the strategic level, by a separate directive, oriented the forces and means of military intelligence subordinate to it to carry out a special task - the detailed determination of routes, areas and lines of movement and concentration of the main forces of the Kherson enemy grouping.

 

At least during the past week, there has been an increase in the enemy’s conduct of radio-technical intelligence (RTR) in this direction and adjacent (Zaporozhye), the use of reconnaissance UAVs of the operational-tactical level and reconnaissance aircraft of the Su-24MR type ... the work of forces and means of enemy electronic warfare (EW).

Obviously, the Russian command really wants to establish exactly what is happening with the Kherson grouping of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Especially in terms of its regrouping and moving. And it's clear why...

In fact, the overall implementation of the strategic plan for the autumn-winter campaign will depend on this ...

5. In the ship composition of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, which operates in the Black Sea-Azov water area, today there are 14 carriers of sea-based cruise missiles of the Caliber type, in particular:

- 2 frigates of the project 11356P Burevestnik, these are the frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen, the total salvo is 32 Caliber-type SLCMs

- 4 small missile ships, according to our classification - missile corvettes, project 21631 "Buyan-M", these are corvettes "Vyshny Volochek", "Ingushetia", "Grayvoron", "Orekhovo-Zuevo". The total salvo is - 32 SLCMs of the "Caliber" type

- 4 patrol ships, according to our classification - patrol corvettes, project 22160, these are the Vasily Bykov corvettes (the main one in the series), Dmitry Rogachev, Pavel Derzhavin and Sergey Kotov. Their total volley reaches - 32 SLCM units of the "Caliber" type.

- 4 diesel-electric submarines of project 636.3 "Varshavyanka" + 1 depl of project 877V "Halibut" (non-combat ready). The total salvo of these underwater hunters for transformers and substations is 24 SLCMs of the Caliber type.

 

[Zeleban]

In addition, it should be remembered that ...

1. In addition to the enemy ship grouping, which is now in the Black and Azov Seas, there is also a grouping of Russian ships that hangs out in the Mediterranean Sea for various reasons (mainly because Turkey "closed" the Bosphorus), which can fire in a general salvo even before 76 SLCM type "Caliber"...

2. It should also be taken into account that the enemy’s Caspian flotilla also has carriers of these missiles, in particular: - 2 patrol ships (frigates) of project 11661K "Gepard". These are "Tatarstan" and "Dagestan" - as well as 3 small rocket ships (missile corvettes) of the same project 21631 "Buyan-M". These are "Grad Sviyazhsk", "Uglich" and "Veliky Ustyug".

Also, it must be borne in mind that ... at the moment, out of all this "beauty", several shipborne SLCM carriers of the "Caliber - NK" and "Caliber-PL" types are, let's say ... in "probably damaged", or "technically faulty" state, and therefore they can hardly take part in rocket trolling of our power system now ...

There is evidence that at least 1 frigate of project 11356R Burevestnik (Admiral Makarov) and 3 missile corvettes of project 21631 Buyan-M (Grayvoron, Vyshny Volochek and Ingushetia) as a result of " no one knows when, no one knows how..." The resulting damage decided to take a "small break" in their intense rocket activity.

 

 

[kraze]

11 hours ago, sburke said:

i think your bias is showing again.  Folks from Belarus are fighting in UKr army, Belarus citizens have been arrested for sabotaging rail network and there is a significant Belarus opposition movement.  You'll need to back up your statements with some facts to counter that.

I'm sorry - "bias"? Seriously?

Folks from Russia are fighting in Ukrainian army too. So that means russians are against the war? Of course not. Same for belarussians.

Folks from Belarus are fighting in Ukrainian army. But have you ever wondered why are they here? You know - HERE. In Ukraine. Does it make any sense if you think about it? Shouldn't they be fighting their own government then? But they are not. Do you know why? Because they are outcasts, hated by their own population and considered traitors by the typical belarussian citizen.

As for "sabotaging rail network" - I'm sorry but putting two logs on top of a rail, making a few photos of it is not "sabotaging", especially while the rest of your population provides russian soldiers with: food, medical treatment, supplies incl. military like ammunition and weapons and accommodations. To this very day.

Oh and did belarussians sabotage much of the rail which belarussians in belarussian delivery services used to deliver looted washing machines and electric teapots to their new russian "owners"?

You see even if we do believe that "sabotage" wasn't just a staged discount attempt to pull Belarus from under incoming sanctions (and when they happened regardless - all "sabotaging" stopped) - you seem to think that if 10 or 20 people are doing something differently from the majority - it suddenly whitewashes the whole majority.

It does not.

Edited December 4, 2022 by kraze

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

I'm sorry - "bias"? Seriously?

Folks from Russia are fighting in Ukrainian army too. So that means russians are against the war? Of course not. Same for belarussians.

Folks from Belarus are fighting in Ukrainian army. But have you ever wondered why are they here? You know - HERE. In Ukraine. Does it make any sense if you think about it? Shouldn't they be fighting their own government then? But they are not. Do you know why? Because they are outcasts, hated by their own population and considered traitors by the typical belarussian citizen.

Unlike in Russia, all polls and believeable info shows extremely low support for war among general population. We don't know true support for regime except it was low enough to almost topple it in 2020- scale of it was nothing like Russian "oppositon marches" in 2012. Almost whole civilized world agreed that Belarussians showed middle finger to Lukashenka during elections, which were of course heavly falsified (again, unlike in Russia, where Putin still could probbaly win legally even if real democratic procedures existed). You also skipped the fact that population was pacified before the war- long-lasting wave of protests 2 years ago that was widely, brutally repressed by regime, more in fact than Russian liberals ever were. And yet, they lasted for several months. That's why Lukashenka power is so fragile, even Putin most probably knows it is not prudent to gamble on their support for war.

Also unlike Russians, Belarussian opposition actually communaly do something with their fate. How it is that they field entire strong regiment in Ukraine alone, while much cherished "Russian Legion" is several persons? There were dozens of high public figures and diplomats turning on Lukashenka's power. Even now they are organizing here basic shooting trainings for emigree civilians in case they would need them, according to Belsat TV (who shouldn't betray such info btw.) there were hundreds if not thousands of participants.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Beleg85

[fireship4]

Quote

 

Quote

 

 

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

.I have never yet seen any sign that the benighted Russian army will rot away all on its own without first getting a very hard shove. Collapse is induced, and has proved costly when you give Ivan time to prepare.

****

I was thinking more in terms of about 250 independent battalions of white clad, droned-up, missile-toting, veteran-led infantry materialising out of the taiga and tundra, at countless points all along the front.

...I got yer snow eating fog right here boychik.

The famous WW2 Soviet push-back that ended at Berlin has been brought up a few times in this war.  It is the dreaded spectre of “Russian ‘real’ mobilization” and human waves of vodka soaked killers.

A few problems with projecting this older model onto the current conflict:

- The bar of effectiveness in modern warfare is much higher.  One cannot simply push out burp-guns, grenades and unpainted T-34s onto farm kids and drive your enemies before you - well not so long as those enemies have what the UA are currently fielding.  Even in WW2 the Soviets took horrendous loses before German attrition from many directions took hold.  In the modern era all those ski troops will be seen from space and targeted along with their already broken logistical system.

- Russia 2022 is not the Soviet Union - no matter how much Putin wishes it so.  Russia does not have the demographic depth the Soviets had, nor the self-contained industrial base.  Globalization cuts in many ways and Russia is feeling it.  So a massive manpower surge has to be equipped, trained, projected, integrated and sustained into the fight - Russia has shown it is straining to do this with its force in being, let alone another “250 independent battalions”.  The weight of that extra load would likely break the already fragile Russian military operational system.

- Russia would have to see the Ukraine as existential.  Putin and his cronies definitely see it as existential.  Some on the nationalist side within Russia agree.  How much does your average Russian?  I mean when it really comes down to it, how ready is your average Russian teenager willing to risk death or life-long injury to invade Ukraine?  The Soviets had a clear existential threat, zero confusion - modern day Russia not so much.

So basically we have a nation that is not likely to make the sacrifices of WW2 in a situation nowhere near WW2 while completely lacking the ability to generate and sustain comparative capability - let alone competitive.  If it wasn’t for the nukes this thing would already be over.  Lesson: when you are down to nuclear power as your only real card, you are in rough shape.

Finally, and I cannot stress this enough, time is on the Ukrainian side, not Russia’s side.  Ukraine is the one who is getting force generation advantage - training, equipment and support.  The longer this goes on, and the last 9 months demonstrates it quite well, the UA gets stronger while the RA gets weaker.  The UA now has experienced formation commanders and has had time to build a western C4ISR enterprise.  They have integrated western hardware into that and driven the might RA back dramatically.  The RA has wasted the modern military is had and has no force generation advantage here.  Large dumb mass is suicide under these conditions and the RA keeps proving it on a daily basis.  The only way any of this changes is if western support falters or fails.

[Huba]

Speaking of UA strikng back at the russians, reports of progress in the Shahed analogue program. I wonder how much this is intended as only morale booster, and how as an actual weapon that will have an impact on the situation. I see no reason whe these couldn't be churned up be the thousands with some foreign help. 

 

Edited December 4, 2022 by Huba

[Zeleban]

Iranian drones stopped being used because of the frost, not because of their shortage, - Assistant Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces Yevhenii Silkin

"These aircraft are made of plastic and those materials that do not withstand frost. Therefore, the rate of use has decreased a little. And at the moment we only have the training of the bomber aircraft, which moves and trains with refueling."

[sburke]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

I'm sorry - "bias"? Seriously?

Folks from Russia are fighting in Ukrainian army too. So that means russians are against the war? Of course not. Same for belarussians.

Folks from Belarus are fighting in Ukrainian army. But have you ever wondered why are they here? You know - HERE. In Ukraine. Does it make any sense if you think about it? Shouldn't they be fighting their own government then? But they are not. Do you know why? Because they are outcasts, hated by their own population and considered traitors by the typical belarussian citizen.

As for "sabotaging rail network" - I'm sorry but putting two logs on top of a rail, making a few photos of it is not "sabotaging", especially while the rest of your population provides russian soldiers with: food, medical treatment, supplies incl. military like ammunition and weapons and accommodations. To this very day.

Oh and did belarussians sabotage much of the rail which belarussians in belarussian delivery services used to deliver looted washing machines and electric teapots to their new russian "owners"?

You see even if we do believe that "sabotage" wasn't just a staged discount attempt to pull Belarus from under incoming sanctions (and when they happened regardless - all "sabotaging" stopped) - you seem to think that if 10 or 20 people are doing something differently from the majority - it suddenly whitewashes the whole majority.

It does not.

not a single fact in there, just your usual characterizations with that broad brush.

[Battlefront.com]

Article in NY Times detailing the sometimes tricky classification of acts of collaboration.  In this case, a guy in Kherson who tried to stop petty crime caused by Russia's lack of interest in governing.  His volunteers captured a dazed and confused Russian helicopter pilot.  Having no Ukrainian forces to hand him over to, not wanting to murder him (it would be murder under the Geneva Convention), and not wanting to put his guys at risk for retaliation if they got caught he handed the guy to the Russians.  The article not only dives into this murky situation, but also gives the reader a sense of how bad things were in the early weeks of occupation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-treason.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20221204&instance_id=79288&nl=the-morning&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=115001&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Iranian drones stopped being used because of the frost, not because of their shortage, - Assistant Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces Yevhenii Silkin

"These aircraft are made of plastic and those materials that do not withstand frost. Therefore, the rate of use has decreased a little. And at the moment we only have the training of the bomber aircraft, which moves and trains with refueling."

Ah!  Now this is interesting.  I was wondering why we hadn't seen more waves of Iranian drones, now this.  This quote tells me that the plastic become brittle at cold temperatures and the stress from flying cause them to crack.  No need to say why that's not a good thing for an airframe

To me this is entirely believable.

People tend to think of plastic as if it is one thing.  It absolutely is not the case.  The more robust a plastic needs to be, the more expensive it is.  Nobody is interested in spending money unnecessarily.  Iran was making these for their own purposes and extreme cold is something they probably didn't engineer a solution for as it would be largely unnecessary.  Add to this corruption and other factors that result in products that under perform in real world circumstances.

If this is widespread, I don't think it will be addressed over this winter.  Ukraine might have just caught a break.

Steve

[Zeleban]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article in NY Times detailing the sometimes tricky classification of acts of collaboration.  In this case, a guy in Kherson who tried to stop petty crime caused by Russia's lack of interest in governing.  His volunteers captured a dazed and confused Russian helicopter pilot.  Having no Ukrainian forces to hand him over to, not wanting to murder him (it would be murder under the Geneva Convention), and not wanting to put his guys at risk for retaliation if they got caught he handed the guy to the Russians.  The article not only dives into this murky situation, but also gives the reader a sense of how bad things were in the early weeks of occupation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-treason.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20221204&instance_id=79288&nl=the-morning&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=115001&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

Steve

This guy organized law enforcement agencies actually subordinate to the enemy. What should this be called if not cooperation with the enemy?

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So the Russian copium machine and its Western amen corner seems to have adopted the 4th grade 'I'm rubber, you're glue' strategy.

Basically everything we're tracking here about the Russians: mass casualties, desertions, surrenders, mutiny, low ammo, tank hatches welded shut, etc. -- is being claimed to be afflicting the Ukrainians 2x.  It's us, not them, who are on the verge of ignominious collapse.

Certainly our buddy Macgregor is onboard with this line of logic.  Just watched 30 seconds of his latest diatribe saying that ALL of the warcrimes Russia is accused of are faked by Ukraine, yet the video of the dead Russian soldiers is evidence of widespread state sanctioned atrocities by Ukrainian forces against Russians.  I think 30 seconds of Macgregor and a quick look at the mental defectives commenting on his lies is all I can stomach.

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So where are those additional 500k troops plus 250k in support units that TDF should have been training up and kitting out since the front stabilised in July?  Even if there aren't enough tanks and artillery yet, you can still configure them as light infantry.

It takes months to properly train light infantry.  Russia shows us what happens when you don't.

The early part of the war was chaotic.  Ukraine was trying to train and equip more soldiers than it had the capacity for.  We saw the result of that... lots of TD guys getting killed.  Not necessarily without a purpose, but it's not a model that Ukraine should seek to continue relying upon.

The result, I'm sure, is that for the first few months Ukraine had to rely heavily upon reservists who had previous experience, though perhaps not for years.  Better than taking fresh guys with no training and rushing them to the front, but still suboptimal.

As far as I know all prewar reserve formations (i.e. ones with skeleton staffs, facilities, and equipment) were mobilized very quickly.  However, some were held back to receive Western equipment and training.  This took time, but these units played a key role in the Kherson offensive in particular.

On top of this, we've seen several TD units converted into regular Army and a couple brand new formations.  This sort of expansion takes time to do correctly and, to Ukraine's credit, they are taking that time.

Lastly, we have casualties and rotations.  Each soldier who leaves front line service, for any reason, has to be replaced by someone who is already trained.  This puts the need for replacements in competition with new units building up strength.  It seems Ukraine has been pragmatically trying to do both, which means each suffers and benefits concurrently.

Given that we've seen less than a year of fighting so far, with Ukraine dominating the battlefield for more than half of it, I don't think it's fair to view the glass as half full for Ukraine.

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

=This still mystifies me. Why WOULDN'T Ukrainian society be totally mobilised now?

And why would they be keeping that a secret from the affected populace, their allies and their enemies? You'd think they would be shouting it from the rooftops.  Why We Fight!

What's missing?

*****

Total mobilization is not something that can be sustained for very long.  It's an act of desperation used only when all other options have been cut off.  Even Nazi Germany held off until 1943 (or 1944 depending on definition) because it recognized the dangers of total mobilization.  It is the same reason Russia is so reluctant to scale up its war effort even after all of its humiliating defeats.  It seems the Kremlin's calculation is that it will do more harm than good.  The prevailing opinion here is that the Kremlin is probably right.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

This guy organized law enforcement agencies actually subordinate to the enemy. What should this be called if not cooperation with the enemy?

As I said, it's murky and I certainly don't have a good answer for a situation like this other than to say "it is complicated".

Using an extreme definition of "collaboration" any activity, including providing food to a hungry neighbor in need, is aiding the enemy because it relieves the occupiers of responsibilities.  The strict definition means maximum suffering for the people under the boot of the oppressor, because ANY attempt to reduce the suffering makes things better for the occupying force.  Likewise, any civilian who goes about their daily life could be viewed as a "traitor" because they aren't killing the occupier or in any way deliberately putting themselves in harm's way.

This is a horrific and indefensible standard.  I reject it fully.

In my view the local population should be able to maintain life and reduce suffering of its people to the fullest extent possible.  This means EMTs responding to people having heart attacks.  It means doctors remaining at their posts to treat them when they arrive.  The engineers that keep the water flowing to homes should do what they can to keep it flowing.  Maintaining basic economic services necessary for life, such as food and shelter, are obviously critical to keep going.  It also means maintaining basic levels of protection for persons and property.

Looking at historical examples of occupation, there are plenty to choose from where the occupied peoples were able to maintain the basics of a functioning society while also working against the interests of the occupiers.  In such situations there were, for sure, people who collaborated for personal gain or out of extreme weakness of character.  Those people are fairly easily identified and correctly branded as traitors/collaborators.  On the other extreme are those who do nothing but resistance activities, living in the woods or barns instead of their homes.  They are fairly easily identified as resistance members, though not necessarily good ones (all kinds of historical examples of resistance groups that were also predatory on its own people).  And then there is everybody in between that is trying to survive.

Back to the example in the NY Times.

The details are important.  The reporting indicates that the intent of the volunteer "watchmen" was to provide some degree of order that the Russians weren't.  If they were there to stop Ukrainian criminal elements from raping, murdering, and stealing from other Ukrainians, then I do not see that as collaboration.  If they were there to make sure Ukrainians didn't give the Russians any trouble, then they were traitors and collaborators.  If they were there to enrich themselves in some way, then they were criminals more than anything else.

Again, these sorts of things are messy.  Very messy.  The more simple someone tries to make it, the more out of touch with reality they are.

Steve

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, fireship4 said:

 

 

Thanks for letting us know there's a new Perun video, I was just wondering what I'd while on my ski machine this morning, and this is perfect.  This is something I find very interesting, the winter war.  Good organization with good gear and rotations vs uncaring, abusive, neglectful system.  All the soldiers are miserable, but one side is probably unbearable misery over time, with sickness, trench foot, frostbite, malnutrition, etc.

LLFlank posted a claim that UKR outnumbered 7:1 on Bakhmut front.  If true, that tells me a lot about what is coming.  If UKR forces aint there, they must be somewhere else.....

Great discussions above. 

I'm w Steve on collaboration -- can be black and white, but it can also be very very gray.

[Zeleban]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Again, these sorts of things are messy.  Very messy.  The more simple someone tries to make it, the more out of touch with reality they are.

 

Moreover, this article is based on the words of this guy's lawyer.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Finally, and I cannot stress this enough, time is on the Ukrainian side, not Russia’s side.

Yup.  I've been saying this since the start of the war (well, before it too) because time generally favors the defender/occupied.  Sometimes time is measured in months, sometimes years, sometimes decades, and even centuries.  In fact, Russia has been unsuccessfully fighting against Ukrainian independence for centuries.  Russia's latest attempt has had the effect of accelerating time in Ukraine's favor.

Not surprisingly, ISW has yet more to contribute to our discussion.  From yesterday's report:

Quote

Both polls indicate that a shrinking but still significant portion of Russian citizens support—and are even enthusiastic about—continuing the war in Ukraine despite Russian military failures. Russian morale and political support for the war will likely further degrade with time if current trends hold. The longer the war continues to produce Russian casualties while Ukrainian forces gain ground the more the socio-political dynamics will likely continue to turn against the Kremlin. An operational pause under the guise of peace negotiations could alleviate growing political pressure on the Kremlin and allow Russia to reconstitute its forces for subsequent renewed offensive operations. 

This is something that I, and others, have hammered on since the war started.  Putin's grip on power is not infinite.  The ability to suppress the Russian people's criticism of how it is treated is not absolute.  The more this war drags on, the more unhappy the Russian people will become.  At some point something will snap, we just don't know when and what the result will be.  I am VERY sure it won't be a humble and friendly neighbor for Ukraine, and in fact could be worse than what is going on today.  But Putin won't likely be around to see whatever comes next.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Moreover, this article is based on the words of this guy's lawyer.

Some, but also interviews with people who were there on the ground with him.  Including his Rabi who is currently in Germany.

As I said, the details matter.  It could be that he was running a criminal enterprise for his own benefit for all I know.  But just because he set up volunteers to keep order and handed over a uniformed Russian back to Russia does not automatically make him a collaborator in my view.  It's not that simple.

Steve

[quakerparrot67]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah!  Now this is interesting.  I was wondering why we hadn't seen more waves of Iranian drones, now this.  This quote tells me that the plastic become brittle at cold temperatures and the stress from flying cause them to crack.  No need to say why that's not a good thing for an airframe

To me this is entirely believable.

People tend to think of plastic as if it is one thing.  It absolutely is not the case.  The more robust a plastic needs to be, the more expensive it is.  Nobody is interested in spending money unnecessarily.  Iran was making these for their own purposes and extreme cold is something they probably didn't engineer a solution for as it would be largely unnecessary.  Add to this corruption and other factors that result in products that under perform in real world circumstances.

If this is widespread, I don't think it will be addressed over this winter.  Ukraine might have just caught a break.

Steve

wasn't one of the problems of the trabant car that its plastic body would shatter in the cold?

 

cheers,

rob

[dan/california]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Why would you want to give Russia that long to rebuild ammo stocks, lay another gazillion mines and buy whatever Chinese tech gear they can for cash? Remember how even those 1943 era Iranian buzz bombs were quite a nasty surprise? I guarantee you those factory orders are already in and gearing up for production. We stupidly offshored most of the Arsenal of Democracy to an even more rapacious, mercantile civilisation, and this is the price of that.

...I have never yet seen any sign that the benighted Russian army will rot away all on its own without first getting a very hard shove. Collapse is induced, and has proved costly when you give Ivan time to prepare.

****

I was thinking more in terms of about 250 independent battalions of white clad, droned-up, missile-toting, veteran-led infantry materialising out of the taiga and tundra, at countless points all along the front.

...I got yer snow eating fog right here boychik.

Or in historical terms, hey Surovikin, how about 20 sets of lethal swirling blades all simultaneously heading for

URANUS

Steve covered this extremely well, but I just want. to reiterate that the Ukrainian General Staff does not go off half cocked. The next offensive will come when they are READY, as they define ready, and not before. My suspicion is that they have a lot of units up towards Belarus training as hard as they can stand and acting as an operational reserve for that front while they do it. And they have a plan, and we will learn what that plan is in due time.

6 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Moreover, this article is based on the words of this guy's lawyer.

There are perhaps some advantages to "disposing" of the extremely obvious and publicly hated collaborators during or immediately after the actual fighting rolls through. Several members of the Kherson collaboration government seem to have had this happen to them. Although it is in dispute if the Ukrainians did it, or the Russians were tying up loose ends. Most of the time though it is far better to have an actual judicial process, as well as an assessment from the relevant intelligence agencies. You can always shoot them later, or throw them in a prison that will make them wish you had, if they actually deserve it. 

[kevinkin]

The flip side is force generation is protection. This, I am sure, Ukraine and its allies are very aware of. They just can't train and equip well led troops and expect them to conduct a complex offensive without some real battlefield experience and C4ISR usage at the small unit level. Needed experience can be gained while preserving its force by temporarily relying on the primacy of defense in modern warfare.  While time is on Ukraine's side in a test-tube, there is real life suffering taking place. We all hope this dang thang is over soon on the best of terms. But what would be the reason (other than outside support) that it is not by say sometime in 2023? Where will the fingers point? Really hard to tell sitting on the sidelines how close Russia is to a complete withdrawal.  I get a sense it will take some military push and they will not just pick up and leave. From the reporting below, preparations are in the works. 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-europe-business-avril-haines-b7e15fcb84ba5962a7b63c0f05fdedfd

"Looking ahead, Haines said, “honestly we’re seeing a kind of a reduced tempo already of the conflict” and her team expects that both sides will look to refit, resupply, and reconstitute for a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring.

But we actually have a fair amount of skepticism as to whether or not the Russians will be in fact prepared to do that,” she said. “And I think more optimistically for the Ukrainians in that timeframe.”

In the meantime, the 60 buck cap on oil is ticking off Zelenskyy and I don't think Putin is afraid of dolls. No one said it would not be messy.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The flip side is force generation is protection. This, I am sure, Ukraine and its allies are very aware of. They just can't train and equip well led troops and expect them to conduct a complex offensive without some real battlefield experience and C4ISR usage at the small unit level. Needed experience can be gained while preserving its force by temporarily relying on the primacy of defense in modern warfare.  While time is on Ukraine's side in a test-tube, there is real life suffering taking place. We all hope this dang thang is over soon on the best of terms. But what would be the reason (other than outside support) that it is not by say sometime in 2023? Where will the fingers point? Really hard to tell sitting on the sidelines how close Russia is to a complete withdrawal.  I get a sense it will take some military push and they will not just pick up and leave. From the reporting below, preparations are in the works. 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-europe-business-avril-haines-b7e15fcb84ba5962a7b63c0f05fdedfd

"Looking ahead, Haines said, “honestly we’re seeing a kind of a reduced tempo already of the conflict” and her team expects that both sides will look to refit, resupply, and reconstitute for a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring.

But we actually have a fair amount of skepticism as to whether or not the Russians will be in fact prepared to do that,” she said. “And I think more optimistically for the Ukrainians in that timeframe.”

In the meantime, the 60 buck cap on oil is ticking off Zelenskyy and I don't think Putin is afraid of dolls. No one said it would not be messy.

I will just remind everyone that their was almost certainly a coordinated info op a few months ago where absolutely EVERYONE mournfully announced that Kherson was the only place that Ukraine could manage an offensive. Then the Kharkiv push changed the entire tenor of the war.