How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

42 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

If UKR forces aint there, they must be somewhere else.....

I do hope you are right. Just saying, logic says there is another possibility and in the absence of other evidence can't just be discarded (which, I think, is what LLF said): They don't exist.

Trying to look at it objectively and analytically it is a bit dangerous to always give Ukraine the benefit of the doubt (capabilites-wise, I mean). We don't treat the RA that way and for good reason.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

And then there is everybody in between that is trying to survive.

Indeed. Plus, there are certainly "neutrals", people who don't care by whom they are ruled as long as those rulers don't interfere too much with their lives. There is no law that says you have to choose sides, I guess, and certainly none that requires you to be a hero.

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

If they were there to make sure Ukrainians didn't give the Russians any trouble, then they were traitors and collaborators. 

Even that depends on circumstances, I think. You already touched on those historic examples. For instance, if the occupier says "For every one of us killed we will execute [put large number here] of you." No one can't be blamed for trying to keep his loved ones safe instead of supporting some resistance (though admittedly that makes any resistance difficult).

[dan/california]

Good one!

There is a great one liner in the middle, worth the ~90 seconds.

[FancyCat]

A scholarly article on Norwegian resistance and collaboration in WWII looking at state institutions and their response to German and Nazi attempts to take over the administration.

https://doi.org/10.1080/03468755.2020.1846075

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The famous WW2 Soviet push-back that ended at Berlin has been brought up a few times in this war.  It is the dreaded spectre of “Russian ‘real’ mobilization” and human waves of vodka soaked killers.

A few problems with projecting this older model onto the current conflict:

- The bar of effectiveness in modern warfare is much higher.  One cannot simply push out burp-guns, grenades and unpainted T-34s onto farm kids and drive your enemies before you - well not so long as those enemies have what the UA are currently fielding.  Even in WW2 the Soviets took horrendous loses before German attrition from many directions took hold.  In the modern era all those ski troops will be seen from space and targeted along with their already broken logistical system.

- Russia 2022 is not the Soviet Union - no matter how much Putin wishes it so.  Russia does not have the demographic depth the Soviets had, nor the self-contained industrial base.  Globalization cuts in many ways and Russia is feeling it.  So a massive manpower surge has to be equipped, trained, projected, integrated and sustained into the fight - Russia has shown it is straining to do this with its force in being, let alone another “250 independent battalions”.  The weight of that extra load would likely break the already fragile Russian military operational system.

And even the USSR didn't have the self-contained industrial base.  They depended heavily on Lend Lease equipment that came largely from the US.  Including some ~400K trucks, 11K aircraft, millions of tons of food and enormous amounts of ordnance.  They wouldn't have had the mobility to chase Germany back across the border without enormous numbers of 2 1/2 ton trucks supplied by the US.  All that stuff from the current version of the arsenal of democracy is going to Ukraine side this time around.

[danfrodo]

58 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I do hope you are right. Just saying, logic says there is another possibility and in the absence of other evidence can't just be discarded (which, I think, is what LLF said): They don't exist.

Trying to look at it objectively and analytically it is a bit dangerous to always give Ukraine the benefit of the doubt (capabilites-wise, I mean). We don't treat the RA that way and for good reason.

Definitely possible that we are over estimating UKR manpower.  But they just had an entire front released (Kherson) and have been training thousands of troops -- just the ones trained in NATO countries was reported at 4-6000 per month, and that can't be all the new troops.  I'll stick w my belief that UKR is choosing to under-resource Bakhmut in order to strike elsewhere once the ground allows until I see some evidence to the contrary.  And look at the payoff -- huge numbers of RU soldiers are being killed on this front, for relatively low cost to UKR. 

I am still solidly in the "UKR gonna attack soon" camp.  I think it will be Svatove-Kremmina front first, which is kinda silly of me to say because that front is still very active.  Then I think they'll try to attack toward Tokmak on the Melitopol front.

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah!  Now this is interesting.  I was wondering why we hadn't seen more waves of Iranian drones, now this.  This quote tells me that the plastic become brittle at cold temperatures and the stress from flying cause them to crack.  No need to say why that's not a good thing for an airframe

To me this is entirely believable.

People tend to think of plastic as if it is one thing.  It absolutely is not the case.  The more robust a plastic needs to be, the more expensive it is.  Nobody is interested in spending money unnecessarily.  Iran was making these for their own purposes and extreme cold is something they probably didn't engineer a solution for as it would be largely unnecessary.  Add to this corruption and other factors that result in products that under perform in real world circumstances.

If this is widespread, I don't think it will be addressed over this winter.  Ukraine might have just caught a break.

Steve

I realized earlier this year that probably half the really annoying problems I've had to deal with in 30 years in science and aerospace have been related to plastics. Cured epoxy resins (filled and unfilled) to be more accurate, but essentially plastics.  They're an enormous PITA and much more processing and history dependent than metals.  Their properties generally don't match book values/spec sheets that closely and you have to characterize them for your particular application and process, and usually control the process very carefully.  They have time dependent properties that also depend on temperature.  They can have multiple transitions in properties that depend on their history and what temp you're using them at.  They're extremely non-linear, so doing analysis to predict their behavior can be a mess.  They can be anisotropic, so their properties in one orientation are (sometimes very) different than their properties in another orientation.  They can have hidden damage that causes sudden catastrophic failure where a metal would have showed signs for a long time and not killed you.  It's really easy to screw up a design that uses plastic resins and have it be perfectly fine until it's suddenly a disaster.

They can also be extremely strong and have amazing strength to weight ratio and durability if well engineered.  I pretty much only ride carbon fiber bicycles anymore. I beat the hell out of them and the one frame failure I've had was an aluminum dropout getting bent (I've broken a couple steel frames).  We use them all the time in aerospace, often exploiting their quirky properties.  Modern jet aircraft are full of them, but are tested to extremes. 

I agree that I wouldn't count on the Shahed plastic problem getting resolved over the winter.

 

7 hours ago, Zeleban said:

In addition, it should be remembered that ...

1. In addition to the enemy ship grouping, which is now in the Black and Azov Seas, there is also a grouping of Russian ships that hangs out in the Mediterranean Sea for various reasons (mainly because Turkey "closed" the Bosphorus), which can fire in a general salvo even before 76 SLCM type "Caliber"...

2. It should also be taken into account that the enemy’s Caspian flotilla also has carriers of these missiles, in particular: - 2 patrol ships (frigates) of project 11661K "Gepard". These are "Tatarstan" and "Dagestan" - as well as 3 small rocket ships (missile corvettes) of the same project 21631 "Buyan-M". These are "Grad Sviyazhsk", "Uglich" and "Veliky Ustyug".

Also, it must be borne in mind that ... at the moment, out of all this "beauty", several shipborne SLCM carriers of the "Caliber - NK" and "Caliber-PL" types are, let's say ... in "probably damaged", or "technically faulty" state, and therefore they can hardly take part in rocket trolling of our power system now ...

There is evidence that at least 1 frigate of project 11356R Burevestnik (Admiral Makarov) and 3 missile corvettes of project 21631 Buyan-M (Grayvoron, Vyshny Volochek and Ingushetia) as a result of " no one knows when, no one knows how..." The resulting damage decided to take a "small break" in their intense rocket activity.

 

 

All those ships in the med would have to fire any missiles over NATO countries, which is unlikely to end well for the missiles or the Russian Mediterranean fleet.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

12 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

What's missing?

Four  things whose absence  would prevent forming even light infantry units are small arms, trained commanders, trained instructors and logistic assets. So probably one of the above.

 

[danfrodo]

good summary today from this site.  It does give me confirmation bias on my current beliefs, but until I get evidence otherwise I'll stick w my notions:  Bakhmut for UKR is a great way to weaken  RU army; svatove-kremmina is main focus; tokmak will be attacked at some point soon to cut the east-west rail line to Dnieper left bank region (land bridge/remainder of Kherson Oblast).

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/4/2139964/-Ukraine-Update-As-winter-cold-freezes-the-ground-Ukraine-has-options

 

[Seminole]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And the circle is complete.  Snowden is now officially a Russian citizen, not just an agent:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/edward-snowden-swears-allegiance-to-russia-and-receives-passport-lawyer-says/ar-AA14PjI7

Steve

He was never a Russian agent. 
 

The Obama admin invalidated his passport while he was in Russia to deliberately trap him there and create this narrative that you’re still repeating.  
 

 

[akd]

Did someone seriously just post a Glenn Greenwald video in this thread of all places?

[FancyCat]

Wasn’t his passport revoked while he was in Hong Kong? China let him fly still to Russia. Why wouldn’t Russia let him fly elsewhere…oh. 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Seminole said:

He was never a Russian agent.

Agree to disagree.  Though I could be convinced he was a useful idiot to start with.

24 minutes ago, Seminole said:

The Obama admin invalidated his passport while he was in Russia to deliberately trap him there and create this narrative that you’re still repeating.  

Sorry, I don't find Greenwald credible so I'm not going to bother.  Lost interest in him when he pushed the pro-Putin, Ukrainian Nazi line during 2014. (damn, AKD ninja'd me!)

Some background on why Greenwald doesn't float my boat:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/a-tale-of-ukraine-crimea_b_5060692

Steve

[_Morpheus_]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

not a single fact in there, just your usual characterizations with that broad brush.

Sorry,  no facts, but pure IMHO based on the `personal expirience`, so not only `kraze` bias:

Most of the old (30+) population in Belarus support russia, not Ukraine. Ok, not really correct: `they are `brothers` with russia but don't want to die for russia` because most of the russian casualties from the North were moved to Belarus. Most of the population who was against the lukashenko, left the country already.
 

[Huba]

54 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Four  things whose absence  would prevent forming even light infantry units are small arms, trained commanders, trained instructors and logistic assets. So probably one of the above.

 

Logistics being the key here I think. There aren't many uses for these newly formed infantry brigades without Bde level artillery with sufficient ammunition. All the efforts towards restarting Soviet calibers production wherever possible have to bear fruit before we see more of this new units being deployed I guess. The ~400 NATO guns are not enough to even equipp the old mech/ armored brigades, let alone the new ones. 

[_Morpheus_]

-1 Ka-52 helicopter:

 

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

-1 Ka-52 helicopter:

 

thanks for sharing that.  Made my little heart flutter w joy.  RU chopper on the way to kill Ukrainians gets what it deserves.  Made my day.  And the joy in the UKR guy's is the best part. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Sorry,  no facts, but pure IMHO based on the `personal expirience`, so not only `kraze` bias:

Most of the old (30+) population in Belarus support russia, not Ukraine. Ok, not really correct: `they are `brothers` with russia but don't want to die for russia` because most of the russian casualties from the North were moved to Belarus. Most of the population who was against the lukashenko, left the country already.
 

I don't think this is accurate.  Lukashenko is resisting Putin's obvious bullying to join the war directly because he fears something, and that something is probably not the people that have already left but the people who remain.  I can see no other explanation.

Steve

[Seminole]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sorry, I don't find Greenwald credible so I'm not going to bother. 

Do you question the credibility of Ben Rhodes in his own biography?

Set aside all arrows for the messenger and address the facts in evidence, and not in dispute.

The result is you were consciously manipulated, and the effects still resonate.  

[Yet]

I really wonder why people are thinking that UR forces would cross the borders with Belarus and/or RU. That would turn RU from Defender into agressor. It would totally change a careful created and maintained narrative. Crossing the borders would be totally dramatic for Western support - not gonna happen.

[_Morpheus_]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think this is accurate.  Lukashenko is resisting Putin's obvious bullying to join the war directly because he fears something, and that something is probably not the people that have already left but the people who remain.  I can see no other explanation.

Steve

Thanks Steve for your opinion, you are right. 
Lukashenko can put a policeman at every entrance in Belarus, but it would not help if people start changing their minds because of the body bags that start coming if he will send troops. 

[dan/california]

33 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

-1 Ka-52 helicopter:

 

Perspective can be a tricky thing, but that looked like it came from above the chopper. That would imply it was something bigger than a manpad. Buk/Iris-T/NASSAMS?

[_Morpheus_]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Perspective can be a tricky thing, but that looked like it came from above the chopper. That would imply it was something bigger than a manpad. Buk/Iris-T/NASSAMS?

`Today, a unit of the anti-aircraft missile brigade of the Air Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down a Ka-52 using medium-range air defense systems (C-300, Buk, Hawk)` - it was not a manpad.

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Thanks Steve for your opinion, you are right. 
Lukashenko can put a policeman at every entrance in Belarus, but it would not help if people start changing their minds because of the body bags that start coming if he will send troops. 

Especially if the body bags come back fast and in large numbers, which is exactly what would happen.   I have NO evidence for what I am about to say, but I think it is a reasonable guess.

Lukashenko knows he was almost deposed.  His supporters and allies also know this.  They understand that they were close to economic ruin and possible loss of life.  They are old men and I don't think they have much incentive to see their last few years on Earth be uncomfortable or shortened.  I doubt they would still be in power if they were not aware of all of this.

Lukashenko and his regime are not stupid or blind.  They know that Russia's war against Ukraine has gone very poorly.  They saw their hospitals overrun with dying Russians.  They had to help Russia cover up all the casualties.  They helped the shattered units from around Kyiv transit back into Russia.  This is also something that can be counted on as fact.

Lastly, I doubt anybody in the Lukashenko regime thinks their military is better than the Russians of February 23, 2022.  They would have to be insane to think this, and I don't think they are insane.  This is probably true.

Add all this together and you have Lukashenko and his henchmen wanting to go quietly out of this world in comfort and fearing that a disaster in Ukraine would end that.  Since they probably are reasonably sure they would get massacred by the Ukrainians, then the obvious thing to do is not attack Ukraine.

Further speculation by me is that Lukashenko has convinced Putin of how fragile the regime is and the Kremlin generally wants to avoid losing Belarus to anarchy and/or a "color revolution".  Therefore, Putin has put pressure on Belarus to hand over equipment, ammunition, and bases within Belarus, but not pushing Belarus to go to war.

I am so convinced of this that I feel the best thing that could happen for Ukraine is Belarus starting a ground offensive.

Steve

[Huba]

An hour long interview with UA top artillery officer, with English subtitles. I didn't have the time to watch it yet, but it looks extremely interesting: