How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

27 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Hertling is a legit nice guy. If you reach out to him Capt I’d bet there’d be a fruitful conversation. 

Also…looks like Ukraine may have decided to break Wagner in Bakhmut: 

 

Interesting.  I wonder if UKR is deciding that, given the mud, that the most rewarding current tactic is to simply  kill russians here where the commanders are literally sending men to be killed.  Interesting that Wagner now needs help.  Prig must be running out of jailbirds to murder.

[Kinophile]

16 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Not an offensive...but a defense that will grind down Russian units faster than they can be replaced, to the degree that they cannot be rotated or such that they will be make reinforcing Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia less likely. A corrosive defense you might say. 

I think you're describing more of a stalling defense...to be corrosive in the UKR tradition (9 months makes a tradition?) I'd expect to see a higher force ratio with a greater depth of tech and metal. Bahkmut seems very much like a mutual throat-grab rather than a higher level UKR corrosive campaign - so far. They might unleash something in a week or two.

There's an idea floating (looking at you, NYT) that RUS is seeking to suck in UKR forces and weaken/prevent other UKR offensive actions. That's all well and possible, but it cuts both ways. UKR previously held the entire central portion of the frontline handily while simultaneously launching two wildly separated and successful offensives. So UKR might do better to keep holding at Bahkmut but not waste their better forces and tech in an offensive meat grinder. Hold the line, steadily HIMARS the **** out of the Wagner C&C, rebuild their expended units from Kherson/Kharkiv while corroding somewhere else - Melitopol is my preferential thinking...

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[Fenris]

52 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

UKR previously held the entire central portion of the frontline handily while simultaneously launching two wildly separated and successful offensives. So UKR might do better to keep holding at Bahkmut but not waste their better forces and tech in an offensive meat grinder. Hold the line, steadily HIMARS the **** out of the Wagner C&C, rebuild their expended units from Kherson/Kharkiv while corroding somewhere else - Melitopol is my preferential thinking...

This was what I was thinking today after seeing that NYT article suggested UKR SOF and TDF units had moved to re-enforce Bahkmut and that no one besides the russians really understands why they keep attacking there.

Have them hold the line, it'll be a crap job but an important one.  Give the regulars a chance for a breather and to get into position, then once the ground is hard enough look at another offensive op.

[dan/california]

Filing this one under EXTRA harsh...

 

Edit: Of course their real enemy is the blocking troops between them and the Russian border, and the Czar who stuck them in that hole in there first place. There is only one way to encourage them to figure that out.

Edited November 28, 2022 by dan/california

[Kinophile]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/ClZEzcEgcZG/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

Drone medevac is on the horizon... 

[Bufo]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/ClZEzcEgcZG/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

Drone medevac is on the horizon... 

Or atgm platform

https://youtu.be/FzhREYOK0oo

 

 

 

[Huba]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/100-mile-strike-weapon-weighed-ukraine-arms-makers-wrestle-with-demand-sources-2022-11-28/

Long story short, Reuters expects that US will soon be delivering ground launched Small Diameter Bombs to Ukraine. I managed to get through the paywall, here's a summary:

- GLSDB is a regular SDB on ma M26 rocket motor, should have at least 150km range, and be rather cheap, not more expensive than M30 rocket. Production can utilize existing stock of SDBs, it doesn't have to be a new builds, just assembly is needed.

- both Pentagon and Boeing/ Saab refused to comment, but they quote a document stating that this weapon is proposed to US European Command that oversees weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

- also Saab spokesman said in October that they are finishing tests and expect immediate orders

- they expect the weapon being available in quantities in the spring

 

No direct info here but reading the orc entrails only (yuck!), but it would make sense. Seems a way way cheaper, easily available alternative to ER-GMLRS rockets. And would provide enough range for Ukrainians to hit everything in the occupied territories except parts of the Crimea, from currently occupied positions. Have they reached the Azov shore at any point, the bridge itself could also be threatened. Also being a glide weapon, this could prove much more useful against some targets, for example allowing hitting bridge supports horizontally. 
I really hope that something comes out of it, sounds really promising.

Another interesting tidbit from the article is that Reuters own analysts (which might as well mean anyone's twitter  ) asses that UA got around 5000 GMLRS missiles up to this point - no way to verify that, but sounds reasonable to me.

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Huba

[Billy Ringo]

17 hours ago, billbindc said:

The folks selling AI are very sure AI will change everything...

A few random comments from the bleachers:

1. In a non-military industry, I've worked with some of the best AI gurus in my business who have been trying to apply and leverage machine learning and artificial intelligence for years.   MASSIVE amounts of data. It's not easy and not nearly as productive as many selling the technology proclaim.  Like--"don't believe 90% of the BS because it's all wishful for thinking for most of them."   There is gold in AI---but be careful about who proclaims they've found it and when they will be able to truly deliver.

2. The daily Russian kill/destroy numbers over the past few weeks are significantly and fairly consistently high on casualties, low on weapons destruction.  Is this because of the weather? A pause in combat operations? Russia running out of military hardware?  Mobilized forces being thrown into the meat grinder?  Something else?  Or "D", all of the above?

3. I'm still of the strong opinion that there will not be a tangible decrease in Republican/Conservative support of Ukraine.  Yes, there are rumblings and some outliers--but when all is said and done the support will remain.    My reasoning and to reiterate--just my humble opinion:

• The conservative voices questioning support of Ukraine are being magnified beyond their actual political power and influence.  Certainly wouldn't be the first time the media or some self-interest group tried to sow division where it may not be and push their own agenda.
• Conservative support for Ukraine is still strong and most Republican politicians know and understand that.  I was raised and live in the South---Ukrainian support is flat out solid in my little sphere of the world.  I work and talk with people all over North America--I don't here any rumblings of dissatisfaction.  And to the very esteemed posters who have mentioned this topic over the past 24 hours--the locations are California, Seattle, Oregon, etc.  Just like my residence in Tennessee is not indicative of the opinions of the rest of the country--those views may not be reflective of the flyover states.  Where we live influences our perspective whether we like it or not.
• Rand Paul is not as crazy or Putin loving as some may believe.  I grew up in Western Kentucky and have friends that know him.  He is outspoken and takes a different approach than many, but underneath he's fairly reasonable and his verbal positioning is to frequently just challenge the traditional group think of his own party.  Accountability is important to him, so it's no surprise he questions spending---but his desire to cut funding to Ukraine may be less than it appears.

Peace and thanks to everyone on this forum for their brilliant and informative comments.

[Haiduk]

45 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Mobilized forces being thrown into the meat grinder? 

This. Russians continuously attacking and counter-attacking on Svatove and Bakhmut directions, using mobilized and former prisoners. Russian milbloggers angry, because HQ's often don't attach mobilized to existing units (or make it in formal way) - they just combine them in "march battalions", equipped only with infantry weapon, with huge lack of radios (and if they have something, this is Cold War age R-159 or crowdfunded Chineese radios) and throw in desperate attacks only with one goal - to delay UKR advance. Though, on Svatove direction already almost deployed reinforcements of troops, who withdrew from Kherson, so in nearest time, Russian attempts to push UKR troops back will be intensified

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

3. I'm still of the strong opinion that there will not be a tangible decrease in Republican/Conservative support of Ukraine. 

100% agree. Not concerned with oversight at all. It's the role of Congress. There is chance to actually get more support for Ukraine. No politician wants to vote against a nation on the verge of a major geopolitical shake up in the West's favor. Rogue votes will be made, but they are for representative's constituents to high five over. Those votes will have nothing to do with Ukraine per se. But just a protest about foreign spending in general. Ukraine does not have a blank check, but the support required for victory will be there in the end. This might be the most bipartisan issue in years and really tick off cable news. There are no ratings fighting over a few hundred million one way or the other. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by kevinkin

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

Rand Paul is not as crazy or Putin loving as some may believe.  I grew up in Western Kentucky and have friends that know him.  He is outspoken and takes a different approach than many, but underneath he's fairly reasonable and his verbal positioning is to frequently just challenge the traditional group think of his own party.  Accountability is important to him, so it's no surprise he questions spending---but his desire to cut funding to Ukraine may be less than it appears.

Thanks for that excellent post, most appreciated.  I would respectfully disagree w the above statement, not to pick a fight, but so that people are not misinformed.  Paul's word's on Ukraine, on the senate floor, if said on this forum woud've had him expelled as an RU troll.  His lies, again on the senate floor, about covid contributed to the ignorance that led to thousands and thousands of americans dying needlessly.  He continually attacks science, fact and evidence, in public on the senate floor.  He may be seem reasonable in person, but his record in public is despicable.  If Rand Paul had his way, Ukraine would've been annexed by Putin -- we know this because that's what he fought for on the senate floor, it's in the public record.

Other than that, I very much agree w everything you posted.  And with KevinKin's follow up post.  I think there won't be enough radical votes to stop UKR funding.  What I worry about is delaying tactics and getting smaller aid packages due to the pro-putin folks.

[Blazing 88's]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

...He may be seem reasonable in person, but his record in public is despicable.

I would bet his neighbour would agree with you!

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Bufo said:

Or atgm platform

https://youtu.be/FzhREYOK0oo

 

 

 

Interesting but why go so fancy.  Id expect UKR to ratchet strap an ATGM to a heavy lift drone by the spring and start popping off T90s as they leave their FOBs. 

[dan/california]

The U.S. lame duck Congressional session needs to put its big boy pants on get Ukraine support for the next two years done. They need to pass a hundred billion in U.S. support 2/3 military and 1/3 economic. They need to pass whatever law treasury needs to seize the 280 billion of Russian money at the Federal Reserve. That is enough money to take all the financial pressure of the Ukrainian Government for three plus years. Make the RUSSIANS pay for the bleeping war.

 

[Kinophile]

Ref Rep support in Congress -  all the hysterical squawking by the MTGs of the world are irrelevant if their social-media oriented "ideas"  don't make it through committee,  or even past the initial vetting process. They can make announcements till the cows come home, all of it is just for reelection, to be "seen"  as "fighting" without being able to actually fight -  ie maneuver through the committee tangles, a fight which requires that one thing all extremists find difficult - compromise.

I use her as an example of an egregiously conflicted political animal who, due to her extremist positions, has not succeeded in achieving anything of note yet makes a lot of noise, while UKR support has remained steady. 

There are "left wing"  Democrats doing similar, she's just the most immediately recognizable. 

The danger is when an MTG does get onto a committee and then, even though themselves stalled, use their position to enable a follow-on MTG 2.0.

Many people assume winning Congress means owning the legislative process -  without knowing they'll need to then eat the barbed-wire burger that is committee process. For that reason I'm confident it'll take a long time (6 months)  before there's a noticeable change in financial thresholds of support. Even then, there's a lot, a LOT the Biden Administration can do without Congress. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Interesting but why go so fancy.  Id expect UKR to ratchet strap an ATGM to a heavy lift drone by the spring and start popping off T90s as they leave their FOBs. 

Why all the eggs in one basket though, unless you are flying it in a penetration mission, which the multicopters are not well suited to do. Strap a battlefield radar system under one, and zap the everything it finds with NLOS missiles or artillery/ mortars firing PGMs.

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

Why all the eggs in one basket though, unless you are flying it in a penetration mission, which the multicopters are not well suited to do. Strap a battlefield radar system under one, and zap the everything it finds with NLOS missiles or artillery/ mortars firing PGMs.

I like it. 

The drones aspect is possibly why it'll be a long LONG time before we see BS2. They're such game changers that any new iteration of the game will need heavy development of the drone ideas/tactics to be in any way relevant. Even BS right now feels aged... Still good, but, well behind the times....

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

A girl ZU-23-gunner )

 

[sburke]

The Supplies For Russia’s Southern Armies Run Through Dzhankoy. The Ukrainians Know It. (msn.com)

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

I like it. 

The drones aspect is possibly why it'll be a long LONG time before we see BS2. They're such game changers that any new iteration of the game will need heavy development of the drone ideas/tactics to be in any way relevant. Even BS right now feels aged... Still good, but, well behind the times....

The game is the only way to develop those tactics. It might take multiple modules, but the game is the way to test carious ideas at least well enough to see if they are worth pursuing. I am just hoping we get a publicly available version. I am a bit worried that various western militaries have gotten a clue, and decided it so useful the other side shouldn't be able to buy it.

[Taranis]

Mk19 + UAVs :
Could be sensitive for some ↓

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

10 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Could be sensitive for some ↓

I was triggered.

Because it reminded me that grenade launchers are still direct fire only in CM

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Mk19 + UAVs :
Could be sensitive for some ↓

 

I have been advocating for a real fire control system for a vehicle mounted Mark 19 for at least a decade. There is no reason the guy with tablet couldn't have direct control,  he puts the cursor on a a target and presses a button and the computer does the rest of the work. And even a Humvee can carry a LOT of 40 mm if that is its only job.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The game is the only way to develop those tactics.

Oh, I dont know about that. The Ukrainians appear to be doing ok without it. And the Turks. Also the Iranians.

[Haiduk]

UKR General Staff claimes UKR forces damaged railroad bridge through Molochna river near Starobohdanivka village, Zaporizhzhia oblast. This is beteween Melitopol and Tokmak. This will delay for some time supply of Russian frontline units in Zaporizhzha oblast and southern part of Donetsk oblast.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Haiduk