How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I have suspicion, UKR high command decided to make crazy thing - attack from Kinburn - Hola Prystan' area toward Crimean isthmus at least to have opportunity to shell the roads from Crimea with arty fire. This will make difficult supply of whole southern Russian grouping.

I recall a words of Cyryl Budanov, chief of GUR, which he said in the summer  - "we have a plans to be in Northern Crimea up to first half of winter "

They haven't made many mistakes so far. Himars reaches a LONG way from the most southerly bit of the right bank. And they could just be making a credible feint, too.

 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They haven't made many mistakes so far. Himars reaches a LONG way from the most southerly bit of the right bank. And they could just be making a credible feint, too.

 

Maybe the left bank UKR operations are traps?  They realized there were no RU nearby, so landed some units.  RU would hopefully respond by sending mechanized units along the one or two roads that could reach the incursion, which would be hit in pre-sited artillery ambushes.  If they took Oleshky that would not fit this model.  But the other alleged landings would.

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Ruslan Ibatullin, arty battalion commander of 872nd SP-arty regiment, also was appointed as acting artillery chief of 218th tank regiment of 127th motor-rifle division, 5th CAA, Eastern Military District. Killed on 12th of November

 

[Haiduk]

Oleshky about hour ago or more.

According to other info as if Russians already retreated from the town under UKR artillery fire, but UKR troops didn't enter to the town yet

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

Maybe those much more familiar with Twitter will know if this report comes for a good source. But it ties in with the post above. I think. 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

recall a words of Cyryl Budanov, chief of GUR, which he said in the summer  - "we have a plans to be in Northern Crimea up to first half of winter "

Whether excellent disinformation, like the big push was going to be Kherson, not a two pronged offensive…or part of the larger unfolding drive for all Kherson Oblast and beginning of munching on Crimea - ZSU is clearly not completely pulling in horns and resting. Possibly the Svatove and Kremmina front really has been a large pinning feint aimed originally at Kupiansk that wildly succeeded. But the Kherson/Crimea and land bridge objectives were the primary objectives all along.  
 

No matter what, they are keeping the Russians guessing. Not just us. Consider the looming appearance of a large tranche of better trained mobiks at the front lines, a cold winter in allied Europe and a colder battered Ukraine…and the bizarre gaffes from USA military like Milley claiming publicly that Ukraine couldn’t possibly win the war. Urgency for continuing momentum and major victories is not crazy! 
 

I could not believe Milley going tankie and announcing that Ukraine could not win! Comfort to Putin, urging him to even greater atrocities.

Edited November 14, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Maybe those much more familiar with Twitter will know if this report comes for a good source. But it ties in with the post above. I think. 

 

If I were the sort of army that had been planning a push south from Zaporizhizhia, husbanding my resources while corroding the Russians West of the Dnieper, it would be entirely in keeping with that strategy to force Russia to take defending the entire line of the river seriously. 

Personally, I'm not that sort of army. But you may know of one.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

If I were the sort of army that had been planning a push south from Zaporizhizhia, husbanding my resources while corroding the Russians West of the Dnieper, it would be entirely in keeping with that strategy to force Russia to take defending the entire line of the river seriously. 

Personally, I'm not that sort of army. But you may know of one.

Well put, even by your usual high standards.

[dan/california]

The Baltics understand that the time and place to beat the Russians for a generation or two is in Ukraine, and right now.

[LongLeftFlank]

Keeping the Russians frantically shifting their best mobile forces along creaky, vulnerable supply lines, especially to the far western littoral, is a great move.

As I observed above, this could also be a 'flypaper' gambit to draw out the Black Sea fleet for another good kickin'.  And not just them....

From the RU perspective, this is the kind of situation where tactical air power comes in handy, and there's a giant  t̶a̶r̶g̶e̶t̶ air base down in Crimea. So here's hoping the Ukies have kept 'what airdefence doin?' well in mind.

Perhaps some of that new city defence anti-missile kit the EU has been sending along gets quietly retasked?

 Steve @Battlefront.com, this could also be a chance to refresh some of that extended discussion around the 'missile' theory of the bridge. Can UKR reach out and touch these bases, HARD?

 

I mean, the Russians are allegedly about to unleash a storm of Iranian SCUDs (or wev) on whatever targets (civilian infra) don't move around. Why can't two play that game?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/an-iranian-ballistic-missile-storm-is-on-ukraines-horizon

 

(P.S. this last source is not known to me, so... bread and salt).

Edited November 15, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Beleg85]

Some short thoughts about mobiks by Ukrainian tankers:

 

Oh, and HIGHLY recommended interview with commander of Ukrainian Special Force...strange he found the time but here it is:

https://warontherocks.com/2022/11/a-conversation-with-ukraines-special-operations-commander/

ED: Ok, and for some laugh a brilliant piece of military art. Symbol of russian razvietka (Recon), a bat (?) found in some Ukrainian house.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

If it as info op they are pushing it hard...

[danfrodo]

Summary from Markos Markolitas (aka Kos) for today:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/2136080/-Ukraine-update-No-winter-pause-as-Ukraine-pushes-hard-on-multiple-fronts

He's as baffled as many of us by what is happening on the left bank, but we'll see how that plays out.  RU evacuating its own + collaborators from Kremmina & nearby cities.  That's lovely .  If the weather behaves maybe there will be more RU collapse/pullout, this time in Kremmina area.  But the weather says showers this week, lows just below freezing. 

 

[dan/california]

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Steve @Battlefront.com, this could also be a chance to refresh some of that extended discussion around the 'missile' theory of the bridge. Can UKR reach out and touch these bases, HARD?

Not with ATACAMS.  Even if Hrim-2 exists (and I believe it does), and Ukraine has more of them ready to use, they are limited in number and therefore only appropriate for strategic targets.  I'm not sure smashing up an airbase in Crimea is worth expending Hrim-2 at this point.

Instead, what Ukraine can do is smash the crap out of anything along the left bank of the Dnepr with HIMARS.  And if the US finally gives Ukraine some ATACMS, they could theoretically strike Melitopol.  Barely.

So I think the big "deep strike" problem for Russia is a repeat of what happened to them in Izyum and later Kherson.  Whatever they have supporting the river's defenses is at risk unless moved, which means more strain on logistics.

The big deal is that everything south of Kherson is completely vulnerable to HIMARS and half of it to standard artillery.  Logistics would have to be situated as far back as Armiansk to stay out of HIMARS range, which puts it almost 200km drive from Heroiske.  That's not tenable, especially because 1/3rd of the good roads are right along the river and therefore vulnerable to mortars and harsh words.  Coming in by ship is super risky because Ukraine will likely eventually sink whatever Russia uses.

Looking at the bad roads and complete blanket of Ukraine's deep strike capabilities, I can see why Russia might lose the isthmus even if it wanted to keep it.  Very hard to defend from the eastern direction, much easier to defend from a western direction.  Russia didn't fully take it until the beginning of April (or was it the very end of March?) despite already having Kherson.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

The big question I haven't seen answered yet is... where did Russia stick all the forces withdrawn from Kherson?  Russia hasn't been shy about sticking shattered units right back into the frontlines, so are they already manning positions?

Steve

[Sojourner]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Logistics would have to be situated as far back as Armiansk to stay out of HIMARS range, which puts it almost 200km drive from Heroiske. 

About one page back Haiduk reported detonations and large fire at Novooleksiivka.
Wonder how they reached that, or was it more careless smoking?

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

About one page back Haiduk reported detonations and large fire at Novooleksiivka.
Wonder how they reached that, or was it more careless smoking?

There's been a rash of "smoking accidents" in this area, yet there's nothing that Ukraine is known to have that could hit that far.  Except Hrim-2, but again that's not the sort of weapon Ukraine would use here even if they had some available.  Therefore, I expect it's some sort of partisan operation.

Steve

[dan/california]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/12/putin-russia-must-lose-ukraine-war-imperial-future/671891/

She is most of the way to team Kamil, it can't be fixed, only disassembled.

 

[chuckdyke]

He got Bali-Belly LOL. Probably in a Panti Pijat massage parlor spa. 

 

[poesel]

Rheinmetall buys Spanish competitor Expal Systems for 1,2b€. Expal is one of the biggest ammunition manufacturer in Europe. That means that they probably can manufacture Gepard ammo themselves (outside Switzerland) in the near future.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/ruestungsindustrie-rheinmetall-kauft-munitionsfirma-mehr-gepard-munition-fuer-die-ukraine/28806920.html

[Grossman]

11 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Whether excellent disinformation, like the big push was going to be Kherson, not a two pronged offensive…or part of the larger unfolding drive for all Kherson Oblast and beginning of munching on Crimea - ZSU is clearly not completely pulling in horns and resting. Possibly the Svatove and Kremmina front really has been a large pinning feint aimed originally at Kupiansk that wildly succeeded. But the Kherson/Crimea and land bridge objectives were the primary objectives all along.  
 

No matter what, they are keeping the Russians guessing. Not just us. Consider the looming appearance of a large tranche of better trained mobiks at the front lines, a cold winter in allied Europe and a colder battered Ukraine…and the bizarre gaffes from USA military like Milley claiming publicly that Ukraine couldn’t possibly win the war. Urgency for continuing momentum and major victories is not crazy! 
 

I could not believe Milley going tankie and announcing that Ukraine could not win! Comfort to Putin, urging him to even greater atrocities.

UKR must keep the front dynamic. If the front ever gets into a stalemate, the appeasers and Putin would try to promote "peace talks" to try to keep what the Russians have taken. A very smart move to get over to the east bank immediately, an army in retreat is in disarray ripe for exploitation and UKR can apply the usual formula of exploitation. Zelenskyy made a good speech to the G20. The basis of peace talks is a Russian withdrawal back to Russia out of all Ukraine. There is no way UKR will give up Crimea, so that looks to be the decisive encounter which has to occur. Interestingly Surovikin referred to the damage to the Kerch bridge as a reason the Russians could not supply Kherson.

As a posting above states "The Baltics understand that the time and place to beat the Russians for a generation or two is in Ukraine, and right now".

[RockinHarry]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

Rheinmetall buys Spanish competitor Expal Systems for 1,2b€. Expal is one of the biggest ammunition manufacturer in Europe. That means that they probably can manufacture Gepard ammo themselves (outside Switzerland) in the near future.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/ruestungsindustrie-rheinmetall-kauft-munitionsfirma-mehr-gepard-munition-fuer-die-ukraine/28806920.html

That´s good news. But how long does it take to gear up for Gepard ammo and then produce and send to UKR? Another too little, too late from german gov. But still better than damn swiss isolationism.

[Zeleban]

Khodakovsky summarizes the reasons for the unsuccessful attack on Pavlovka

[Kinophile]

It's smart for the UA to not "slack off" at the Dniper.  Cross the river and continue the "infiltrate, decimate"(tm) tactics. The Ivan desperately need a window to reorganize and rebuild, and with their successful evacuation theyve already begun that process. So UA needs to grab Em by the nuts and stay close, right in their face.

Don't give them breathing room. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Kinophile