How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Zhelensky in Kherson. Bold move, very useful at countering muscovite propaganda that is already looming about forced deportations of locals.

 

48 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

they have even made merch with a sledgehammer. I think this is the level of ISIS

Yup, Wagnerotes are actually proudly sharing it. Extension of prison Zek/mafia mentallity and its concepts of loyalty. Very typical for Prigozhin and his folks. Putin's Russia is revealing more and more its undilluted character of mafia state, without make-up.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Steve, this guy and some of his Fellow Travelers are sooooo close to acting as foreign agents, and I’ll bet he hasn’t registered as one for Russia (yet). Another wrinkle is the fact that he and those of his ilk are arguably unable to distinguish between fantasy and reality.  Which can be an actionable diagnosis. Accordingly, I’ve begun to consider him and some of these other nut jobs you referred to be a danger to themselves and/or to others. Certainly if we were at war, this would be the case. But we are not, despite being so intimately involved in one. However…what if Russia were finally declared a terrorist state? As it most certainly is. The war crimes now being unearthed in Kherson pound another nail in that ugly coffin, and underscore the scope of terrorist crimes not seen since perhaps Pol Pots’ regime. Support for a terrorist state might be an easier row to hoe. Hopeless, I know. Freedom of speech. And yet… 

I keep coming back to the laconic Dowding (Olivier) quote from late in the film 'Battle of Britain':

I'm not very interested in propaganda, Minister.... If we're right, they'll give up. If we're wrong, they'll be in London in a week.

[Click]

[billbindc]

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/10/russia-putin-ukraine-un-united-nations/

 

China now asserting, sotto voce, that it was not informed about the invasion of Ukraine. That's complete bull**** but important none the less. Moscow's isolation continues to deepen and it's not just on that level. Russia is being sidelined in pretty much every diplomatic venue globally. Putin has achieved the opposite of his dream of greater Russian influence.

PS: Forgot to add that Xi publicly stated with Biden that nuclear weapons should never be used *including in Ukraine*. Russia's diplomatic ship has sailed.

Edited November 14, 2022 by billbindc

[Zeleban]

Russian anti-tank triangles against infantry fighting vehicles

[Zeleban]

 

[Kinophile]

6 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

What are they shooting at? Infantry? 

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

What are they shooting at? Infantry? 

 

The camera is not zoomed so you can't see it. But I think they were shooting at the Russian strongholds

[The_Capt]

54 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Russian anti-tank triangles against infantry fighting vehicles

That is a really good way to throw or break a track.  In fact they might have but the video cuts off pretty quick after the hit.

[BlackMoria]

30 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is a really good way to throw or break a track.  In fact they might have but the video cuts off pretty quick after the hit.

Definitely not the thing to do.  This from a person whose tracked carrier has thrown a track three time.  One of those was both tracks, an amazing feat, I am told.  Not hard to do at all.... just plow through a forest of deadfall at high speed.  

[Beleg85]

Thread about informational noise around Kinburn:

[kevinkin]

The writer sees a long, if not never ending, war. At the end there is a back handed comment related to Western appeasement. You can argue the pace of support needs to be increased to avoid a long war. But to use appeasement is a really dire. 

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/11/14/the_retreat_from_kherson_864704.html

He seems to understand the overall military situation, but not that the RA might just continue to unravel before our eyes. Just unthinkable to those living within a Cold War mindset.    

Edited November 14, 2022 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Definitely not the thing to do.  This from a person whose tracked carrier has thrown a track three time.  One of those was both tracks, an amazing feat, I am told.  Not hard to do at all.... just plow through a forest of deadfall at high speed.  

Heck, I could do that without even going fast.  Just have to not have good track tension and bingo... track goes for a walk when turning hard

The other reason to not hit things like that is the suspension system isn't immune to damage.  Could break any number of things, including an axle.  Which would be all kinds of fun on top of losing a track.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The writer sees a long, if not never ending, war. At the end there is a back handed comment related to Western appeasement. You can argue the pace of support needs to be increased to avoid a long war. But to use appeasement is a really dire. 

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/11/14/the_retreat_from_kherson_864704.html

He seems to understand the overall military situation, but not that the RA might just continue to unravel before our eyes. Just unthinkable to those living within a Cold War mindset.    

This has been my primary point since before the war started... Russia can not wage an indefinite war because it can't afford to.

I've said several times already that I've been surprised by Putin's ability to keep his forces staffed, even if poorly, without a direct threat to his rule.  I gave even the RU Nats more credit for intelligence than they seem to possess.  But it's not like Russia has an endless pile of equipment and ammo to invest into Ukraine.  We've already seen signs of severe shortages ("what missile attack doing?" ), so it seems the one thing Russia had going for it (massed firepower) is no longer available.

Even if there the lines stabilize, Russia can't afford to keep the war up and maintain an economy at home.  In fact, we've already seen Russia short changing its soldiers and families money due to them.  It doesn't take a lot of imagination to see that this is going to get worse for the Kremlin, not better.

Steve

[Huba]

At roughly $1M per pod, this means around 3000 missiles.

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Sergey Koshelev, probably airborne battalion commander, 137th Guards Airborne Regiment:

 

[kevinkin]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia can't afford to keep the war up and maintain an economy at home.

And the lighter UA fields forces at a fraction of the cost, with greater operational effectiveness, and NATO has its back both militarily and economically. I bet Rand is gnashing their teeth trying figure out a new rules set for a wargame to be played after the war is over at this rate.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Thread about informational noise around Kinburn:

this whole thing is still a mystery to me, but it's a fun mystery.  And hopefully is causing overreaction from Putin, who I suspect is micromanaging often.

[The_MonkeyKing]

what is going on?

Very strange rumor mill

 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

what is going on?

Very strange rumor mill

 

My brain just cannot process this.  In a good way.  But this is blowing my mind.  What if UKR sees such RU disarray in the area that it actually can build sustainable bridgeheads on the left bank.  This is madness.  In a good way.  But again could be UKR feints to keep RU from shifting forces to some other, real breakthrough area?

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I bet Rand is gnashing their teeth trying figure out a new rules set for a wargame to be played after the war is over at this rate.

If I were Rand I would fire everybody associated with Russian threat assessment, hire various Twitter personalities we've been following, and start over with that.  Their track record on Russia is that bad.

Steve

[BlackMoria]

I hope it is what is really happening.   Ukrainian forces need to get across the river and encourage the russians to get off the riverline as a defense and encourage them to keep rolling away.  Because unless that is done soon, a defense based on the Dnipro is going to harden up, making a push down the east side of the river the only real viable option to dislodge the russians in that area.  

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

what is going on?

Very strange rumor mill

 

Hmmm, that would be quite a coup if it turns out to be accurate (i.e. not just 6 SOF with a flag).  Ukraine can support a fairly small bridgehead relatively easily, as they would have crushing artillery and ISR at their disposal.  A small footprint would also be practical to keep supplied, as Russia demonstrated it was able to keep a much larger force going for months despite the challenges.  But expanding it eastward... I don't know if that's possible at the moment.  A lot depends on what Russia has dug in defending the area.  Theoretically they should be manpower rich as they just evacuated several tens of thousands of forces.

Steve

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

what is going on?

Very strange rumor mill

 

One possibility is that the Ukrainians are running a little info op to mess with the Russians heads. The other possibility is that the real reason Zelensky was in Kherson is to shake hands with the troops who were about to REALLY cross the Dnipro, and try to end this war by Christmas.

[FancyCat]

I recall someone stating it was doctrine for Soviet forces to do rapid river assaults, instead of deliberate planned operations during pursuit operations?

[Billy Ringo]

5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Zhelensky in Kherson. Bold move, very useful at countering muscovite propaganda that is already looming about forced deportations of locals.

 

 

Zelensky amazes me.  Here's a guy that only 4 years ago was an actor, comedian and businessman with a law degree and no foreign policy, governmental or military experience.  But yet, he's leading one of the most complex, challenging globally high profile and difficult situations of this century.  And he seems to be making all the right moves time and again.  The way he handles himself, his words and quiet but confident demeanor continue to be on point.  Yes, I'm sure he's getting expertise, coaching and direction from multiple sources---but he's choosing to listen and take advise from seemingly all the right people which is an art unto itself. 

And to think what his life is like on a daily basis, to have to be "on" month after month.  The guy flat out has my respect and I hope to someday read his memoirs on from late 2021 until this ends.