How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Just a snippet of old Dougie fantasizing about killing a king that stopped making rain flowing and cows giving milk...

 

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

the big ones blew:

 

Whelp that'll do it.  Pretty standard for the last one out to turn out the lights.  Still not entirely clear but this whole thing has an "ending with a whimper" feel to it, as opposed to a clever trap or valiant last stand.  Could be some holdout positions but it kind of looks like the RA doesn't have the human capital to throw away on a hopeless urban slugging match.

So I can see some are disappointed here, but once again - check your metrics.  The bad news is that the RA appears to have adapted to retreating and can do so in a more orderly fashion.  The good news is that the first real sign of RA operational learning is within the area of retreating.  Offence was a hard fail, defence looks pretty shaky, but retreating is off to a solid start.

So before everyone gets all glum let take a hard look at this whole thing:

Tactical/Operational - While not being able to bag thousands of PoWs, and sending another few thousand RA troops face down out to the Black Sea is disappointing, let reflect a moment on the tactical and operational achievements of this Fall.  First the UA managed to stage two operational offensive on both ends of a very long front, simultaneously.  This is an incredibly hard peice of work.  The logistics coordination and synchronization of operational support and enablers is truly epic - I have zero doubt the post-war analysis will show this.  We all saw Kharkiv, as the UA crushed the right flank of the famous Russian "encirclement" in the Donbas.

Next, for Kherson, I would really like to see an accurate comparison of force ratios in what just happened.  Because I am willing to bet very good money that they were nowhere near 3:1 for the UA.  In fact I would not be surprised to see them inverted the other way on paper - the little guy just kept crushing toes until the big guy left limping.  This breaks a lot of rules of warfare as we understand them (again).  This is not small in the least and it makes the case for corrosive warfare as being highly effective in both defence and offence - fog eating snowmen in either direction.  This operation did exactly what such on operation of infiltrate - isolate - fix/finish - repeat should, it went slow...and then it went fast at the end.  I fully I admit that I was getting worried there for a minute as well as perhaps the RA had finally proven that the entire theory was weak on the offence, and the potential to freeze this conflict was more real, but Kherson just put another nail in that coffin.

Finally, the very good news is that so long as 1) the RA cannot adapt at levels outside the scope of this war (e.g. C4ISR) and 2) the UA are sustained and supported to keep doing what they are doing = it won't matter where the RA digs in (with maybe one exception), this approach can be repeated.  It is only a matter of UA concentration of focus.  The RA can put in massive obstacle belts but I am not sure they will even work against the UA's approach.  Also, even though we did not get the bloodthirsty itch scratched at the end, do not forget just how much damage was done to the RA in this sector before they decided to pull out - the RA has continued to lose things they cannot get back.

So by other metrics the UA Fall Offensive will be one for the history books.  Beyond it being an incredibly ambitious and bold set of offensive operations - both were successful on many levels. I await what happens next with bated breath.

Political/Strategic - Massive victory - I mean Trafalgar Square massive in this entire Fall Offensive.  All war is communication and negotiation - and the UA might have just changed the narrative of this entire war for good which will directly impact the outcome.  This is no longer a war of Ukrainian survival, it is one of liberation.  By re-taking a major regional capital the political pay off is potentially immense with the strategic narrative in the west, we love a winner and we love a freedom fighter.  Up until now - even though everyone here knew it was about liberation since the spring/early summer, as did everyone in Ukraine - I suspect the mainstream west still saw this through the lens of survival.  Kharkiv was cool but it might have just been a fluke.  If spun right, and I suspect it will be, Kherson should be pivotal in shifting that perspective towards "freedom for all freedom loving peoples" (insert music) - the entire narrative has potential to upscale (there is that word again). OR there is a possibility that the west goes "ok, well they proved their point lets tie this off so I can worry about the price of my Cheetos" - gawd I hope it is the latter.

So What?  Well it should reinforce external support and possibly shift the pressure of tying this off "right now" towards something else.  I am not sure it means the entire Donbas and Crimea back in the sweet loving embrace of Ukraine by next summer, we have discussed this at length and I am still not entirely sure it is a good idea - at least not immediately.  However it has very likely bought Ukraine time and options, while taking time and options away from Putin.  Putin and his cronies should be looking out the window of the Kremlin right now saying "damn, we are in a tight spot!" 

Finally, something I have been thinking about a lot, beyond options, is alignment.  Ukraine has near perfect alignment between its micro and macro structures - Russia does not, and for them it is getting worse.  That alignment serves as the foundation of collective Will.  Now how that alignment is created, reinforced and sustained has filled volumes of books, but right here and now it is clear that one side of this war is very different from the other.  All that is left to screw up is the third party's alignment in this war - the West.  We have been analyzing this instinctually but the alignment between the macro and micro social spaces in the West with respect to this war are likely going to determine its outcome - unless Russia totally implodes and then we have got a whole new set of problems.  So What?  Tell your family, neighbors and friends the good word - the micro-social space starts in your own living room. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

It appears that retreating remains the Russian army's only actual military skill. Perhaps that is because they get so much practice. And while i am sure the list of revealed crimes will be nearly unbearable, Kherson does not look like Severodonetsk. A victory by any measure. Hopefully the Russians will get practice their one real skill again, very soon.

 

Edit: I cross posted with the The _Capt, who of course said all of it much better than I did.

Edited November 11, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

The discussion about the survivability of big ships is not going away.  And the level of security hassle for even peacetime operations is going to be painful.  

[FancyCat]

Nothing to be glum about. For months in this thread and worldwide, most people doubted the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retake Kherson, to defeat the Russian military, to illustrate the ability to liberate their homeland through military means and today means all doubters are silenced.

Russia was not supposed to lose Kherson. It was to one day take Odessa from Kherson as a launch point. Nevermind military strategy, the Russian military was supposed to be powerful enough and have defeated the Ukrainian attacks in such a manner that Kherson was "forever Russian".

All of that is dashed and with it, the image of the Russian Armed Forces.

[riptides]

Wow.

Just wow.

Putting the flag of the EU up in Kherson, smart. Amazingly smart.

This war and everything it has exposed thus far is one for the history books, generations will refer to it. 

 

 

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

It's great to see Ukraine take Kherson back, and I managed to get my hands on some Ukrainian beers to celebrate today (the vodka was sold out).

But it's not a total victory. I was hoping to see huge columns of Russian prisoners. Instead, it seems most of them managed to slip away across the river, right under the noses of the Ukrainians, even though there were no real bridges.

If so, this is not a completely broken, incompetent army. Broken, incompetent to some degree maybe, but not completely. That's not a good sign.

But yes, it's still a great victory.

[Bulletpoint]

While we're watching events unfold in Kherson, it seems Russians are not firing more drones. Have they run out?

Or is it just not reported on much since the new focus is now on the Russian retreat?

[Nicdain]

Being just a lurker most of the time since February, I would like to add to the cheers for the liberation of Kherson by the UA. This is a great day!

Although the RA seems to have managed to complete a decent retreat on the eastern bank of the Dnipro, it is still a retreat;  it is evident to anyone that they have lost the only big ukrainian city conquered so far. 

This cannot go unnoticed among Russian military and citizens. Will Putin be able to keep control of the situation?

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Nicdain
didn't like last sentence

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Wasn't the success at Dunkirk to a large extent based on the germans deciding to stop advancing? I doubt we will see the Ukrainians do the same.

Initially, yes.  But when the Germans finally figured out they needed to put a stop to it they had a very tough time getting to the beach because the British put up an intense fight.

Steve

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers and volunteer fighters in front of a destroyed Russian tank at an undisclosed location in eastern Ukraine on November 10, 2022. BULENT KILIC / AFP"
* T-64

[Rokko]

Russians must be in awe of UKR organizational talent. Not only did they manage to capture a city that voted 99.99% to be annexed by Russia without a fight, they even managed to bring along hundreds of civilian crisis actors to cheer them on while they strut around in the place.

[Kinophile]

Tis done. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Rokko said:

Russians must be in awe of UKR organizational talent. Not only did they manage to capture a city that voted 99.99% to be annexed by Russia without a fight, they even managed to bring along hundreds of civilian crisis actors to cheer them on while they strut around in the place.

"Wow, look at that.  I'm super impressed by Ukraine for sure.  With our economy the way it is today, I doubt we could afford to hire that many crisis actors"

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1591077634867240966?s=20&t=Xrd5qg4ZTTH4GeIq9WZZgw

I wonder how the control of the dam will shape up. The management, power generation, occupation...

[Battlefront.com]

 

Congratulations to Ukraine for conducting yet another difficult, complex operation and coming out ahead despite Russia throwing everything they had into the fight. 

Showing how quickly things can change after months of not changing, here is what I wrote last night:

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Will all Russian forces be cleared out by the end of November 11?  I don't know.  It's possible, but that depends on a number of factors, especially air and artillery support coming from the left bank.  However, the most important factor is how many of Russia's "good" units manage to dig in around the embarkation points and put up a "Dunkirk" level of resistance.  Personally, I don't think these units have enough spirit to conduct such defenses in quantity, but I think it shouldn't be ruled out.

I dunno if the Russians on the right bank can make it through the end of November 12th.

The biggest question is about how many personnel got evacuated before Nov 11th.  Ironically, the better they did at withdrawing before yesterday, the worse today will be for the remaining forces.

The questions seem to be mostly answered now.  The operation is over and Russia withdrew most of its personnel successful to the left bank, which means we did not get to see the scenes of chaos at the crossings we had hoped to (see note below).  Months ago we all seemed to have come to a consensus that Ukraine retaking Kherson was the primary goal, destroying Russian forces en mas would be a bonus.  I still believe that was the correct way to look at it.  Yet, like all of you, I would have preferred to see thousands of captured Russians milling about in eastern Kharkiv city.

Building on what The_Capt just wrote....

We have to keep in mind there's still a lot we don't know yet.  Before we can fully judge the situation we need to know:

• ratio of forces that fought in this battle
• total losses for each side (all categories)
• explicitly how many POWs Russia gave up throughout the entire operation
• how much equipment Russia was obligated to leave behind
• what sort of condition Russia's "elite" units are in now that they're on the left bank

The entire operation needs to be judged, not just the ending, to determine how big of a defeat this was for Russia.  It was huge in all respects, we just don't know how huge.

Steve

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The entire operation needs to be judged, not just the ending, to determine how big of a defeat this was for Russia.  It was huge in all respects, we just don't know how huge.

But there's some things I do know.  I am smiling so much my mouth hurts.  And I teared up at the video of the civilians in Kherson center greeting their liberators.  And Putin has a lot of damage control PR to do.  The soon to be dead Dugin just called for Putin's head, oh my.  

Watching how Putin et al spin this is gonna be fun.  Finding out the level of atrocities perpetrated by RU in Kherson region is not going to be fun.

[Battlefront.com]

Hey, let's give something else for The_Capt to ponder...

Can we have a talk about how encirclement battles have apparently changed?  Because it appears to me that we're seeing a dynamic shift from the wars of the olden days where the defender now has a very good chance of withdrawing before being crushed.

I've been thinking about this since being prompted to re-read details about the Battle for Debaltseve where the Russians lost a huge opportunity to crush thousands of Ukrainian forces.  Hell, even when Russia had extremely favorable conditions at Iloviask it had to resort to warcrimes to clear out the Ukrainians from the pocket they created.

We've seen plenty of small scale incidents of the defender slipping away in this war, however we've seen very large ones including Russia's major withdrawals from northern Ukraine, Kharkiv (first Ukrainian offensive), Kharkiv (second Ukrainian offensive), Izyum, Lyman, and now Kherson.  We've also seen it numerous times when Ukraine's been obligated to pull back, especially in the battles connected to the fighting in Luhansk (Sievierodonetsk in particular).

It seems to me that the increase in mobility now favors the defender's ability to withdraw from a "pocket" more so than the attacker's ability to cut off and eliminate.  I don't think we can chalk it all up to low troop density, though I suspect many specific incidents could claim that as a major factor.  Instead I see it as a combo of the ability for the defender to quickly escape by fast all terrain vehicles and the attacker being obligated to proceed cautiously due to the many, many, many threats that relatively few defenders can credibly pose to the tip of the spear forces.

What I suspect is that tactical decision making TIME is now the decisive factor.  Maneuvering, of any sort, requires thinking about where you're going, what might be in front of you, what might be behind you, do you have enough fuel to make it, how tight to keep your forces, how to keep contact with neighboring units, etc.  LOTS of thinking goes into this, or at least is supposed to   Each one of them costs a little bit of time, which means the side that has to think less gets to act more within the same period.

The defender can brush most of this aside whenever he reaches a decision point that it is necessary to do so.  Truck has a flat tire?  Leave it.  Lost contact with your neighbor?  Probably means they're done for, so better hurry your own butts up.  What if there's an ambush ahead?  Best not to think about that and keep the peddle to the metal!  Etc. etc.  In short, blundering ahead is likely to end better than cautiously retreating.

The attacker has the exact opposite problem, mostly because it can't get ISR fast enough to act before the enemy has already slipped away.  All normal things that slow down an advance when in contact remain and therefore as long as the defender can drive or run faster than the attacker, the defender will succeed in avoiding a mass surrender/slaughter event.

Just my preliminary thinking on the subject

Steve

[danfrodo]

I don't know art, but I know what I like 

[Beleg85]

 

Against recommendations of UAF, people reportedly gather in Kherson. This is actually pretty bold; we don't know what Russians left in the city or if their artillery is suppressed enough to not ba a mortal danger to such crowds. But looks like party of their lives.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So I can see some are disappointed here, but once again - check your metrics. 

Yup, slightly. On the other side, if price for it would be further death and destruction it may not be worth it. I still hope for more heavy equipment left, existing videos are mainly from first lines but it was similar in Kharkiv before it started to pop up en masse.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Initially, yes.  But when the Germans finally figured out they needed to put a stop to it they had a very tough time getting to the beach because the British put up an intense fight.

Steve

As did the French. It's a lamentable fact the French fought pretty hard in a losing fight only to have that forgotten soon after.

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hey, let's give something else for The_Capt to ponder...

Everyone (re) read Frank Herberts Dune - shielding led to "fast on defence - slow and deliberate on offence", I think we appear to be heading into something that is starting to look like that.

That and, in corrosive warfare "encirclement" has become remote envelopment in depth.  The effect is slower to take hold but the projected dilemma is pretty consistent.

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

TIME is now the decisive factor.

One way to look at time in warfare is the old fashion Boyd cycle first described in relation to air warfare. The OODA loop is the cycle of observe–orient–decide–act. This, when you think about it, has been around a long time at the different levels of combat, business, and most all endeavors where information is incomplete at the start of interactions between opposing interests. Whether the loop favors the offense or defense in warfare depends on a lot of technical and human factors. Over time, the pendulum swings back and forth. I might have better mobility, but little info to act on. I might have no mobility and a lot of info to act on. The devil is in the details between the two extremes. Striking the right balance during active combat is difficult since the major systems are put in place years ahead of time. Yet, armed forces can adapt /tweak with what they have and/or can produce quickly.      

Edited November 11, 2022 by kevinkin

[poesel]

I guess there was an agreement between Ukraine and Russia over not fighting in Kherson. If not explicit, then implicit.
Russia could have fought there, but didn't want to lose the kind of troops that could have fought.
Ukraine would have liked to fight those troops, but not in the city of Kherson.

This is, all things considered, a great victory for Ukraine.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

"Wow, look at that.  I'm super impressed by Ukraine for sure.  With our economy the way it is today, I doubt we could afford to hire that many crisis actors"

Steve

It was part of the latest US aid package, sending underemployed crisis actors from Hollywood.