How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, kevinkin said:

This report today mentions something that is or could become the elephant in the room:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-live-briefing-us-nudges-kyiv-to-ease-negotiation-stance-zelensky-calls-out-iran-on-drones/ar-AA13N5kK

Ukraine fatigue.

There were military expediencies for sweeping the RA out of Ukraine as fast as possible during the late summer. But there are public relations/policy reasons as well. Did the US drop the ball here? Patience is key right now, but tell that to John Q Public who likes to see their money behind immediate winners. Given their attention span is as limited as their understanding of how important this war is, support for Ukraine has to be maintained through effective communication about the stakes involved. And this does not have to be propaganda. Polls don't capture US long term commitment to Ukraine. Ask about the World Series yesterday and the polls would show a lot of support for the upstart Phils. This morning those people are just moving on to something else entertaining. Support for Ukraine in the US boils down to those polled feeling sorry for Ukraine and their suffering as they watch horror unfold in 30 sec news clips. It is not a bedrock type of support. But it could be. Putin does a good job positioning himself as evil. The West has to do an outstanding job. Then I think the poll numbers will reflect positive public sediment for long term support of Ukraine including re-building. Right now the positive polls could change in a heart beat. 

These are important points, and underscore the importance of not assuming as given the absolute long term support by the USA. It also underscores why delaying the weapons needed for an inescapable Ukrainian victory is such a gamble. And that gamble is with all the suffering and lost lives of the Ukrainians fighting for their nation’s survival. Wait too long and the *odds* shoot up that the notoriously fickle USA public will simply move on to internal issues and budget (madness).

Edited November 6, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[Haiduk]

Drone operators of 71st jager infantry brigade spotted Russian BTR-82 and targeted artillery strike, which hit APC from second shot. At the end of video, soldier says they were lacky because after BTR was hit they had a time to go away and their position was hit with cluster rocket

 

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

A nuclear armed state like Russia will never be neutralized. Let’s just get that out the way. Next, Putin is very unlikely to be overthrown, 3rd, the only goal is for Ukraine to regain all lands, as a result, anything that allows Ukraine to pursue that goal, including negotiations is good. Nothing has indicated the talks need to have Ukraine say anything but “get off our land” as a condition for ceasefire in the same manner, Russia spent the prior talks giving the same unrealistic conditions for peace.

Agreed. But the best seat to be in for negotiations is to have an overwhelmingly strong position on the battlefield with no letup and no relief in sight for the other side.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't care how untrained these guys are, this is a sign of low intelligence and problem solving capabilities.

Or shock. I'd go with shock.

Edited November 6, 2022 by JonS

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Incredible 27min video from Counter offensive on Kupiansk, by Kraken Unit. Contains NSFW CQB clip.

Intresting, famous Russian soldier with crushed leg taken prisoner and other famous scene of Ukranians shooting other in the toilet are from the same incident:

https://twitter.com/jabuttee/status/1589342208846876672

Btw. it is interesting illustration of intense "cat and mouse" battles in Kupyansk sgt. Krzysztof X wrote about. Kraken was surely there.

{ED} Worth to watch, despite being controversial unit Kraken has very good PR, need to admitt. Note how ca. 13:45 they successfully counter Russian ambush with hail of bullets, pretty close fighting. Also intensivity of MOUT and room clearance is evident.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Beleg85

[LongLeftFlank]

 

 

[Zeleban]

 

[Huba]

According to Wikipedia, Ukrainian Raliways operate 1600 electric, and 300 diesel locomotives. I don't think that they will have to abandon electric traction in general, at least on the main trunk lines, but for sure it's great to have some contingency plan. Also, a lot of nice pictures and videos for train lovers in the linked thread.

Edit: @Zeleban was a second faster

Edited November 6, 2022 by Huba

[Zeleban]

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Quote

Appears that the slat armor and add on armor was able to absorb the impact.

Dunno. There's definitely a hole there.

[Bufo]

10 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Dunno. There's definitely a hole there.

And he was also showing the interior, that wouldn't make sense if it didn't get inside.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

Or shock. I'd go with shock.

Exactly.  I did not see fundamental “sucking”, which is the problem with this philosophical point of view - every video is Russians sucking.  I saw a mech RA outfit get totally shellacked by a combination of what I think were ATGM, UAS and really nasty accurate artillery - how they got there is unclear.  

Those two “low intelligence and problem solving skills guys” were likely already in a state of f#cked up, the lack of weapons is a hint, then getting a UAS grenade in the face pretty much guarantee they are pretty much zombies after that.  

This is not a sign of anything beyond the fact that HE to the face makes everyone have low intelligence and poor problem solving skills.  Having been under accurate mortar fire, I can say from personal experience all one has drills and muscle memory when the world starts exploding around you and we were nowhere near as bad off as those sods in the video.

Those clustered guys may be a symptom of poor training but I would not write off inexperience as it is human nature to huddle together in those situations, hard to reprogram that even in trained troops.

Edited November 6, 2022 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Drone operators of 71st jager infantry brigade spotted Russian BTR-82 and targeted artillery strike, which hit APC from second shot. At the end of video, soldier says they were lacky because after BTR was hit they had a time to go away and their position was hit with cluster rocket

 

That was very good shooting. And one of the biggest lessons of this war is that sitting still is unwise. So great work all around

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

One hundred percent, Jake Sullivan needs to be fired and someone put in that job who understands this war has to be prosecuted to complete victory. Not a single Russian left in Ukraine, and Ukraine Nato. A NATO air base in Crimea just to PROVE they lost.

46 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Exactly.  I did not see fundamental “sucking”, which is the problem with this philosophical point of view - every video is Russians sucking.  I saw a mech RA outfit get totally shellacked by a combination of what I think were ATGM, UAS and really nasty accurate artillery - how they got there is unclear.  

Those two “low intelligence and problem solving skills guys” were likely already in a state of f#cked up, the lack of weapons is a hint, then getting a UAS grenade in the face pretty much guarantee they are pretty much zombies after that.  

This is not a sign of anything beyond the fact that HE to the face makes everyone have low intelligence and poor problem solving skills.  Having been under accurate mortar fire, I can say from personal experience all one has drills and muscle memory when the world starts exploding around you and we were nowhere near as bad off as those sods in the video.

Those clustered guys may be a symptom of poor training but I would not write off inexperience as it is human nature to huddle together in those situations, hard to reprogram that even in trained troops.

All correct of course But explain the 3 BMP-3s parked within arms distance of each other?

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

"Kamchatka marines" in the letter are 40th naval infantry brigade, so they fight together with 155th naval infantry from Vladivostok.

Also Russian military correspondents in big fury and demand tribunals and death penalties not only for mentioned in the letter above generals, but also to personnel of some unit of 3rd Army Corps, which set fire own armor as if this did Ukrainians in order not to drive to help trapped marines through deadly mud field

Looks like fiasco near Pavlivka will be new round of inner fight between MoD party and Prigozhyn-Kadyrov party in Russian force structures rivalry (most of Russian military correspondents/propagandists are supporters the latter party)

If I were designing the AI for an operational wargame for this war, the Russian side would be quite easy to do.  I'd have the strategic AI pick a fairly random place on the map and continually attack it with whatever forces it could scrape together, casualties and results not important.

When we discuss Russia learning from its mistakes (i.e. don't assume Russia Sucks™ forever), the failure of mid to senior commands levels to improve their planning seems to be a constant and consistent problem.  It's difficult to say how much incompetence there is within the Kherson field leadership (I suspect less), however they are still being required to die for something that senior level commanders simply can't let go of.

Steve

[akd]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Russia responds:

 

[The_Capt]

58 minutes ago, dan/california said:

All correct of course But explain the 3 BMP-3s parked within arms distance of each other?

This is one of the problems with these twitter videos - they make great war porn but the thing is so heavily edited that it is hard to actually make out what happened in any meaningful manner.  Were those BMPs “parked” or did they slam into each other in the confusion after one was hit?  Was one trying to do an extraction? Or did the crews simply abandon them in location?  Answers to these questions create a wide array of implications.

I would say the outfit in question looks pretty green from some of the video, maybe coming under fire for the first time, but they had BMPs and tanks with gas in them and looked to be advancing in column before it all went sideways so still mounted mech capable.  I am wondering how they got into that ambush in the first place to be honest.

One thing that is clear is that it was one helluva effective ambush.  I am not sure how to defend against it to be honest.  At the beginning those looked like ATGM strikes which could have been delivered by dismounted infantry way out.  Then you have scary accurate artillery, all being observed in high resolution by UAS who follow up with aerial attacks.  No recon screen is going to pick up infantry teams in wood lines up to 2kms away.  Without c-UAS you cannot hide a mech force like that (we don’t see the ISR systems above this), and that artillery is landing right on top of them, likely very quickly and accurately.  

If someone has a clever answer that does not involve a few thousand dismounted recon sweeping every bush 2kms on either side, a magic C-UAV wand that can’t be detected from space and a shield bubble that makes tanks and BMPs both invisible to western ISR and protect them from PGM - well let’s hear it.

[Vanir Ausf B]

[dan/california]

 

[danfrodo]

Summary from Markos at DailyKos.  Most of this already seen on the forum.  I am sharing because of the interesting part near the top, about the Pavlivka sector.  I didn't realize the only rail line to Mariupol and westward to Melitopol is in UKR tube artillery range in that sector!   So maybe that's why RU is fighting so hard to push UKR back in that area.  Very interesting.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/6/2134063/-Ukraine-Update-Russian-naval-infantry-decimated-at-Pavlivka-in-stunning-defeat

 

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is one of the problems with these twitter videos - they make great war porn but the thing is so heavily edited that it is hard to actually make out what happened in any meaningful manner.  Were those BMPs “parked” or did they slam into each other in the confusion after one was hit?  Was one trying to do an extraction? Or did the crews simply abandon them in location?  Answers to these questions create a wide array of implications.

I would say the outfit in question looks pretty green from some of the video, maybe coming under fire for the first time, but they had BMPs and tanks with gas in them and looked to be advancing in column before it all went sideways so still mounted mech capable.  I am wondering how they got into that ambush in the first place to be honest.

One thing that is clear is that it was one helluva effective ambush.  I am not sure how to defend against it to be honest.  At the beginning those looked like ATGM strikes which could have been delivered by dismounted infantry way out.  Then you have scary accurate artillery, all being observed in high resolution by UAS who follow up with aerial attacks.  No recon screen is going to pick up infantry teams in wood lines up to 2kms away.  Without c-UAS you cannot hide a mech force like that (we don’t see the ISR systems above this), and that artillery is landing right on top of them, likely very quickly and accurately.  

If someone has a clever answer that does not involve a few thousand dismounted recon sweeping every bush 2kms on either side, a magic C-UAV wand that can’t be detected from space and a shield bubble that makes tanks and BMPs both invisible to western ISR and protect them from PGM - well let’s hear it.

I am quite open to your argument that a mechanized assault is just no longer possible if the people you are attacking have late model equipment and their heads on right. The questions that remain unanswered are whether APS, and really good air/drone defense can make any difference. Also can ANYBODY afford that level of tech in any quantity. You seem to be leaning towards no leaning towards no. So that brings us back to diffuse drone swarms and $100,000 ghillie suits. This implies that we have entered an era where the advantage has swung back to the defense, at least at the forward edge of battle. Conversely it is more or less impossible to guard all of your fixed infrastructure from gps guided drones. Interesting times, and not in a good way.

Hopefully the next iteration of the game will allow at least some exploration of these questions. 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am quite open to your argument that a mechanized assault is just no longer possible if the people you are attacking have late model equipment and their heads on right. The questions that remain unanswered are whether APS, and really good air/drone defense can make any difference. Also can ANYBODY afford that level of tech in any quantity. You seem to be leaning towards no leaning towards no. So that brings us back to diffuse drone swarms and $100,000 ghillie suits. This implies that we have entered an era where the advantage has swung back to the defense, at least at the forward edge of battle. Conversely it is more or less impossible to guard all of your fixed infrastructure from gps guided drones. Interesting times, and not in a good way.

Hopefully the next iteration of the game will allow at least some exploration of these questions. 

Well jury is still out but the evidence from this war is indicative in that direction.  APS and C-UAS could be competitive at the forward edge, but the defensive requirement is extremely high and the technology to counter the counters appears to be accelerating while also dropping in cost.  

We have discussed UAS at length but “zapping” them to cut link back to human operators is countered by more autonomy and the hard kill systems are still very expensive, highly detectable and are incapable of handling swarms.  Drones on the other hand are becoming cheaper and more disposable. Further none of this deals with UGS.

APS are quite developed but are also vulnerable to being swarmed by sub-munitions, stand-off EFP munitions, decoys and top attack.

And after all that, there are no counters to PGM artillery, let alone smart artillery delivered sub-munitions, nor space based ISR - in fact ISR is moving from “layered” to a cloud where everything is a sensor.  This combined with battlefield hi capacity data networks, backed up by emerging AI support means the loop between find and finish is not only becoming tighter, it is also becoming highly distributed.

The result is a battlefield that is not only more lethal, it is smarter too.   

[Vanir Ausf B]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And after all that, there are no counters to PGM artillery

There is one: maneuver. APSs don't counter artillery directly, but by enabling movement without getting insta-gibbed by ATGMs you should theoretically be less vulnerable to indirect fires. That's the idea, at least.

[dan/california]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well jury is still out but the evidence from this war is indicative in that direction.  APS and C-UAS could be competitive at the forward edge, but the defensive requirement is extremely high and the technology to counter the counters appears to be accelerating while also dropping in cost.  

We have discussed UAS at length but “zapping” them to cut link back to human operators is countered by more autonomy and the hard kill systems are still very expensive, highly detectable and are incapable of handling swarms.  Drones on the other hand are becoming cheaper and more disposable. Further none of this deals with UGS.

APS are quite developed but are also vulnerable to being swarmed by sub-munitions, stand-off EFP munitions, decoys and top attack.

And after all that, there are no counters to PGM artillery, let alone smart artillery delivered sub-munitions, nor space based ISR - in fact ISR is moving from “layered” to a cloud where everything is a sensor.  This combined with battlefield hi capacity data networks, backed up by emerging AI support means the loop between find and finish is not only becoming tighter, it is also becoming highly distributed.

The result is a battlefield that is not only more lethal, it is smarter too.   

So everything for fifty kilometers back from the forward edge will will entirely diffuse drone systems with the absolute minimum of highly stealthed humans. And then you will have a fires complex with as much protection as an Aegis cruiser, and a price tag to match?

[LongLeftFlank]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The result is a battlefield that is not only more lethal, it is smarter too.   

So in other words, hiding in the bushes, or in imperfectly covered holes, is becoming disintermediated?  The tactical rock-paper-scissors game continues to evolve.

....I'm starting to think there's actually some sense in my crackpot idea of replacing or augmenting (anti-bullet) infantry body armour with some kind of heavy man-covering/knee-length multilayer kevlar cloak sufficient to repel grenade fragments from most directions. Ideally, also combines anti-IR and ghillie suit camou features, as well as providing shelter from the elements. Back to the Viking days, Ukraine!

...It would reduce the lethal range of the frags, force the drone bombers to use heavier charges and also help defenders fully 'roof' their foxholes against small charges dropping in.

Or maybe that's still crackpot for reasons I haven't thought of.  I have spent enough time in deer blinds though to appreciate the value of a good windbreak and groundcloth, in spite of the extra weight.

Edited November 7, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

https://www.nammo.com/story/the-range-revolution/

Reposting this due to relevance to the conversation above.