How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Not for him to really decide that, but still very reassuring:

 

[womble]

12 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

"When it comes to neutralizing drones, there are three approaches: jamming, hacking and what is euphemistically called the ‘kinetic’ approach.

Are there any approaches based around blinding the drone's sensors? Won't stop a drone that's been sent on a GPS-guided attack, but anything that's "autonomously selective" or relies on an operator to aim it, or is being used as a sensor platform would be at least mission-killed. Wouldn't take very long dwell time for a laser to fry a CCD chip, and the rules on lasers are about blinding people. Most drones are optically directed, aye? Not many with radio-spectrum primary sensor sets, and those are probably the big 'uns loitering up high.

[danfrodo]

34 minutes ago, Huba said:

Not for him to really decide that, but still very reassuring:

 

Good.  Stake out the expectations, own the narrative.  This is good messaging and shaping of public perception.

[sburke]

US senators in Ukraine promise continued aid ahead of winter - ABC News (go.com)

 

Republican Senator Tom Cotton insists GOP will back Ukraine in new Congress despite pro-Putin conservatives (msn.com)

Edited November 4, 2022 by sburke

[kevinkin]

I think inertial guidance, now used as a drone's GPS back up, allows for buzz bomb type attacks using dozens of drones just armed with HE. No network. Not very sophisticated, but that's what the attacks on Ukraine remind me of - buzz bombs. Optical direction is more sophisticated and can be attacked if the drones are dependent on it. I am old enough to have flown in B707s that used inertial guidance to navigate with standard VORs and NDMs tuned as back-ups. "Inertial guidance (as of an aircraft or spacecraft) by means of self-contained automatically controlling devices that respond to inertial forces." The key is self contained. The more you want to do with a drone the more sophisticated the guidance has to be. Then there is a weak link to be found by the defender and safe guarded by the attacker.  

[Yet]

7 hours ago, danfrodo said:

meanwhile, this feller is asking the question of where RU is suffering all the casualties that UKR claims (and I get that UKR may be overstating RU casualties by a large amount)

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/4/2133545/-Ukraine-update-Where-are-all-the-Russians-dying

edit:  even if we cut UKR claims by 50% the RU losses in men & gear is still enormous

if you start out with UKR claims, about 15% of the numbers noted at the start of the war of the RU army is destroyed. if you half that, its 7%.

of course, not all army is deployable in UKR, but still.... there is a whole lot of RU army left. They just dont have the logistics to deploy everything at the same time. As long as Putler is all-in, there is a long way to go.

Edited November 5, 2022 by Yet

[NamEndedAllen]

12 minutes ago, sburke said:

US senators in Ukraine promise continued aid ahead of winter - ABC News (go.com)

 

Republican Senator Tom Cotton insists GOP will back Ukraine in new Congress despite pro-Putin conservatives (msn.com)

“pro-Putin conservatives (msn.com”

Rather says a lot about the internal USA political status. Pro Putin conservatives. In the USA. In the very circles where once the term for Russia was “The Evil Empire.”

[Harmon Rabb]

16 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

“pro-Putin conservatives (msn.com”

Rather says a lot about the internal USA political status. Pro Putin conservatives. In the USA. In the very circles where once the term for Russia was “The Evil Empire.”

I try to avoid getting into political discussions relating to U.S. politics. But if Ronald Reagan saw some members of the GOP sympathize with a former KGB officer, who wants to retake lands that he thought were unfairly taken away from Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Reagan would be rolling in his grave.

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, womble said:

Are there any approaches based around blinding the drone's sensors? Won't stop a drone that's been sent on a GPS-guided attack, but anything that's "autonomously selective" or relies on an operator to aim it, or is being used as a sensor platform would be at least mission-killed. Wouldn't take very long dwell time for a laser to fry a CCD chip, and the rules on lasers are about blinding people. Most drones are optically directed, aye? Not many with radio-spectrum primary sensor sets, and those are probably the big 'uns loitering up high.

I am deeply curious about how to rework a BIG phased array radar for jamming. By big I mean Aegis cruiser/AWACS big. 

36 minutes ago, sburke said:

US senators in Ukraine promise continued aid ahead of winter - ABC News (go.com)

 

Republican Senator Tom Cotton insists GOP will back Ukraine in new Congress despite pro-Putin conservatives (msn.com)

They can just give them a bleep ton of money in the lame duck session,and be done with if if they have any sense whatsoever. There will be plenty of other crap to fight over.

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Huba said:

Regarding the last part - I was wondering if increased troops density along the shorter front would be more advantageous for Ukrainians or for Russians? Especially in the Zaporizhya sectore, where RU logistics are really strung compared to Ukrainian. With ISR advantage, PGM firing artillery, and perhaps soon some DPICM rockets, I'd say it might become a true meat grinder for RU. Perhaps @The_Capt would care to to give an opinion on that?

Well that is an interesting question.  The conventional answer is the advantage would go to the defender.  A defender with high troop density along a shorted line forces the attacker to create higher force ratios with less manoeuvre room.  But….

In this war, especially against the UA as they are currently capable, high troop/force density looks like more of a liability.  Firstly large troop concentrations are highly visible and therefore vulnerable to PGM as you note.  And their logistics, which will need to be larger, is also vulnerable.  My guess is that large lower quality troop concentrations are going to suffer a lot of attrition without really doing much back at their opponent,  this is the same problem with obstacle belts - high density, resources intensive that gets cut to pieces by observation and PGM.  Lastly, high troop density = high attrition = plummeting moral, especially with a poor medical system.

So like a lot in this war, it is likely the reverse of what we are used to as the value of high density mass appears to have changed.

[FancyCat]

Grr on lack of Western tanks but any tank is better than no tanks and these will start appearing in December so very good. Also notable the entrance and publicity of a financial partner (the Dutch) alongside the U.S in funding the refitting of the tanks in 3rd NATO country, another mark for NATO staying united helping Ukraine and opposing Russia.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I try to avoid getting into political discussions relating to U.S. politics. But if Ronald Reagan saw some members of the GOP sympathize with a former KGB officer, who wants to retake lands that he thought were unfairly taken away from Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Reagan would be rolling in his grave.

 

You think he's not rolling in his grave??? (full disclosure, my first pres vote was actually for reagan)

Serial mass murdering, child kidnapping, city destroyer, wrecker of world economy.  One would think that would put everyone on the same side, no?  And yet here we are.

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, womble said:

Are there any approaches based around blinding the drone's sensors? Won't stop a drone that's been sent on a GPS-guided attack, but anything that's "autonomously selective" or relies on an operator to aim it, or is being used as a sensor platform would be at least mission-killed. Wouldn't take very long dwell time for a laser to fry a CCD chip, and the rules on lasers are about blinding people. Most drones are optically directed, aye? Not many with radio-spectrum primary sensor sets, and those are probably the big 'uns loitering up high.

Things like Shahed don't really have sensors other than GPS antennas as far as I can tell - they're given GPS coordinates and they fly to them and blow up.  At shorter ranges (<93 km) they can be programmed to loiter and then be given an updated set of coordinates.  But it doesn't appear that they have any kind of target sensors.

Something that has optical or IR sensors could be blinded by a laser as long as it's in whatever passband the optics have.  If it's not laser guided, an operator might consider putting a filter for common laser wavelengths to prevent being blinded.  If it's laser guided you at least have to let the guide laser wavelength through.

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Grr on lack of Western tanks but any tank is better than no tanks and these will start appearing in December so very good. Also notable the entrance and publicity of a financial partner (the Dutch) alongside the U.S in funding the refitting of the tanks in 3rd NATO country, another mark for NATO staying united helping Ukraine and opposing Russia.

I wonder, if somebody would foot the bill to buy some older western tanks from smaller countries that might be willing to sell them, would they be of any use to Ukraine? 

M48, M60, Challenger 1, Leopard 1, AMX-30, etc.

If they got a few of them maybe it would open the door to other western tanks that up until now seem to be taboo to supply to Ukraine?

[Sojourner]

Although not a tank...

"In just nine hours, the Prytula Foundation raised $5.5m from private donors to buy 50 FV103 Spartans used by the British Army"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/03/a-joke-that-went-out-of-control-crowdfunding-weapons-for-ukraines-war

[FancyCat]

Seen some discussion around Kherson and whether Russia is truly retreating or not and whether Ukraine is making a mistake by not contesting the retreat by advancing rapidly to pin the Russians down, i just want to point out, the most important goal should be the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kherson, and Ukraine retaking the whole right bank of the Dnipro. 

If that can be achieved by allowing Russia to move resources back to the left bank under fire, without utterly destroying Kherson in urban combat, even if it allows Russian forces to escape in larger numbers and equipment, preserving Ukrainian equipment and the lives of its soldiers and civilians are much more important overall and benefits Ukraine way more than pinning Russia down in Kherson. 

[dan/california]

How long can the Russians lose nearly a thousand guys a day? And this is before trench foot, and frostbite really get going good. 

[NamEndedAllen]

53 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Seen some discussion around Kherson and whether Russia is truly retreating or not and whether Ukraine is making a mistake by not contesting the retreat by advancing rapidly to pin the Russians down, i just want to point out, the most important goal should be the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kherson, and Ukraine retaking the whole right bank of the Dnipro. 

If that can be achieved by allowing Russia to move resources back to the left bank under fire, without utterly destroying Kherson in urban combat, even if it allows Russian forces to escape in larger numbers and equipment, preserving Ukrainian equipment and the lives of its soldiers and civilians are much more important overall and benefits Ukraine way more than pinning Russia down in Kherson. 

Strongly agree! Saving yet another of Ukraine’s cities from destruction, and the desolate suffering of its residents would be a tremendous victory. I do doubt the Russians will not do a fair amount of damage or sabotage regardless. 

[Grossman]

2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Strongly agree! Saving yet another of Ukraine’s cities from destruction, and the desolate suffering of its residents would be a tremendous victory. I do doubt the Russians will not do a fair amount of damage or sabotage regardless. 

The Ukrainians are fighting of war of (1) attrition (2) preservation of their soldiers lives; do not commit to undue risk, and (3) opportunity.  With Kherson, the Russians have long and risky supply lines, have placed themselves in a weak position. All UKR has to do is containment, attrition and wait. 

[kevinkin]

I always thought the ultimate idea was to cross the river to the north and  "Grab them by the nose and kick them in the pants."

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA602217.pdf

Fighting in Kherson would be much lighter than a full assault and only serve to help hurry Russian retreat as they watched the front begin to roll up north to south. Crossing the river rapidly with enough force would be a historic operation. So it's understandable the UA is biding it's time waiting to see what this type of operation would cost in terms of men and material. Attrition warfare is a major option, but holds its own risks and rewards. 

Edited November 5, 2022 by kevinkin

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/04/pentagon-will-pay-to-upgrade-dozens-of-soviet-era-tanks-for-ukraine-00065203

The Pentagon will pay for the Czech Republic to upgrade 45 Soviet-era T-72 tanks for use in Ukraine

Meanwhile, the Netherlands will fund the refurbishment of another 45 Czech T-72 tanks

The package also includes money to send 250 M1117 armored vehicles for the first time, as well as 40 riverine boats, and 1,100 Phoenix Ghost drones

In another first, the latest U.S. aid package also includes funding to upgrade a number of American Hawk air defense missiles for use in Ukraine

Edited November 5, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[poesel]

Short thread on the state of the Kerch Bridge repair.
TLDR: 
Car bridge is 1 lane and that lane seems to be damaged, too. Planned date of repair for both lanes: April '23
Rail bridge is also single lane, but not useable for heavy trains. Planned date of repair: September '23

I expect either Russia or Ukraine to **** up this schedule.

 

[mosuri]

10 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

 once the term for Russia was “The Evil Empire.”

The Evil Empire never went anywhere. It was just incapacitated for a while in the 90s. Hopefully this time a bit longer than a decade.

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers in front of a Russian tank, on a road near the recently retaken village of Kamianka, in the Kharkiv region, October 30, 2022. EFREM LUKATSKY / AP"

[JonS]

14 hours ago, dan/california said:

A real counter to this

A real counter for this thing needs to become a top of the list action item!

Is that before or after the Bradley full of 40mm and the bde set of heavy armour. Oh, wait. You said top of the list.

Ok boys, down tools. The priority list has changed. What's that? Oh, yes, I know it changed yesterday. Yes and the day before. Oh, and the day before that too. Yes, I know the priority list now runs to 10 closely typed ... look, just stop what you're doing and start working on [checks notes] ... uh ... a sort of an anti drone thing but not really for drones. Yeah, the specs are a bit vague, but it's really important, ok? Ok. Let's get going.