How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

KC135 flight path next to RU base in Tartus (content is indeed sensitive):

 

[Harmon Rabb]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

KC135 flight path next to RU base in Tartus (content is indeed sensitive):

 

That's what I call a ballsy move!

Pilots will be pilots.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

Artillery, due to its range, tends to have operational impact. It's also relatively simple to employ and integrate.

A US Army heavy armed bde is like the whirling chain on a chainsaw. Not the whole saw, just the chain. With out the rest of the saw - the engine, the bar, fuel for the engine  the trigger, the person holding it and knowing what to do with it ... well, you can still do a lot of damage with just the chain but only a fraction of what a saw/can do. The Abrams and Bradleys are just the teeth on that chain. Without the rest of what goes into a bde, and the wider system that supports and enables the bde, well ... look at the Saudis for an extreme example.

There is quite a lot of evidence the Ukrainians are orders of magnitude better soldiers than the Saudis. If the powers that be are absolutely certain they need a three or six month work up then we need to start the process. Actually we needed to start six months ago. As you just pointed out we gave Abrams to the Saudis and the Egyptians. The world didn't end, and the Russians clearly haven't learned a bleeping thing about tank design. If you think the Egyptians haven't given them a complete tank I have  bridge to sell you. Letting Ukrainians die in forty year old junk is stupid and unnecessary. Everything we send to Ukraine is killing the army it was always meant to kill. If we just can't stand the Ukrainians slightly unorthodox style I am sure they wouldn't mind at all if NATO just got in the war. It all comes down to trying to boil the frog slowly instead vaporizing it with conviction.

Name_ended_Allen is making a reasonable case that real long range strike would work better, and faster. I am totally open to that argument. One way or the other though the Russians have to get the message that they just are not winning this, and ought to consider going home while they have some semblance of an Army left.

[NamEndedAllen]

45 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Name_ended_Allen is making a reasonable case that real long range strike would work better, and faster. I am totally open to that argument. One way or the other though the Russians have to get the message that they just are not winning this, and ought to consider going home while they have some semblance of an Army left.

Thanks! Even the proverbial blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.

But please note, handle is NAM_, not Name. Honoring the memory of my childhood best friend, which was effectively ended following his special ops missions there. Much like “Life goes on, even when the thrill of living is gone”. Except worse. Never forgotten.

Edited November 2, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[Huba]

Looks like Twitter picked up Rybar's gossip and some profiles are reporting that PL will integrate Stor Shadow with U Su-24s. Would be great, but there's zero evidence. 

 

[A Canadian Cat]

4 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

That's what I call a ballsy move!

Pilots will be pilots.

LOL yep. I seem to recall pilots getting in trouble for that kind of stunt over the US but in this context they'll be a hero.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Thanks! Even the proverbial blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.

But please note, handle is NAM_, not Name. Honoring the memory of my childhood best friend, which was effectively ended following his special ops missions there. Much like “Life goes on, even when the thrill of living is gone”. Except worse. Never forgotten.

NamEndedAllen, got it, my brain misfired the first time I read it, and just stuck there. 

Edit: So sorry, meant to say that the first time...

Edited November 3, 2022 by dan/california

[chuckdyke]

Oh dear, pancreatic cancer is a long painful process till we undoubtedly will see a state funeral with all the trimmings. But it could be another internet rumor.

Leaked spy documents: 'Putin does have Parkinson's and cancer' (msn.com)

 

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's report focuses on Russia's economic woes because of the war (sanctions + military costs).  It provides quite a few numbers for those who are interested.

Buried in the discussion of Russia's fantasy of redoubling it's war production was this tidbit:

Quote

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby announced on November 2 that the American intelligence community believes that North Korea is covertly supplying Russia with artillery shells.

This is the first time I've seen it reported by an authoritative source, though it has been rumored for some time now.  It is a good sign that Russia's running out of its own shells, bad thing that they have someone to supply them with more.  North Korea likely has gazillions stockpiled.  Still, it is a long way from NK to Ukraine and that adds time and cost to each round.

Steve

[akd]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Still, it is a long way from NK to Ukraine and that adds time and cost to each round.

 

Don’t forget humiliation.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Don’t forget humiliation.

Heh.  Yup.  Russia's only two buddies in the world are North Korea and Iran, the two leading terrorist states.  Birds of a feather flock together!

Steve

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's report focuses on Russia's economic woes because of the war (sanctions + military costs).  It provides quite a few numbers for those who are interested.

Buried in the discussion of Russia's fantasy of redoubling it's war production was this tidbit:

This is the first time I've seen it reported by an authoritative source, though it has been rumored for some time now.  It is a good sign that Russia's running out of its own shells, bad thing that they have someone to supply them with more.  North Korea likely has gazillions stockpiled.  Still, it is a long way from NK to Ukraine and that adds time and cost to each round.

Steve

Could the Chinese be using North Korea as a cut out? There will be things check from now on when the Ukrainians over run a Russian Ammo dump. 

[Battlefront.com]

A sat image of the Rostov helicopter losses from the attack last week:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, akd said:

Don’t forget humiliation.

Just saw Dimitri (translator) posted something that takes the knife of humiliation and twists it:

Quote

 Iran under sanctions is making better missiles and drones, than  did without sanctions.

As our Aussie friends might say... STRUTH!

Steve

[danfrodo]

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's report focuses on Russia's economic woes because of the war (sanctions + military costs).  It provides quite a few numbers for those who are interested.

Buried in the discussion of Russia's fantasy of redoubling it's war production was this tidbit:

This is the first time I've seen it reported by an authoritative source, though it has been rumored for some time now.  It is a good sign that Russia's running out of its own shells, bad thing that they have someone to supply them with more.  North Korea likely has gazillions stockpiled.  Still, it is a long way from NK to Ukraine and that adds time and cost to each round.

Steve

I wonder what RU will actually be receiving from a quality standpoint.  Hopefully these shells are defective -- variations in propellant load & quality hopefully leading to lots of short rounds; defective munitions (duds); misfires requiring dangerous clearing process -- the occasional round exploding in the barrel or in handling would be nice.  Do we think that NK storage and maintenence are better than in RU?  Maybe.  Maybe not.

[Battlefront.com]

Another tank knife fight caught on video:

 

[kevinkin]

Yes, it would be ironic that Russia is resorting to buying back shells they gave away to NK during the CW. If that is indeed what is going on.

[Battlefront.com]

Short video taken in Bakhmut a few days ago.  Opening sequence shows soldiers of the 93rd using a Javelin CLU for recon work.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-vagner-mercenaries-bakhmut/32110770.html

Steve

[kevinkin]

Yikes. I have two maps from overlays, one outside Bakhmut to the NE and the other to the west of Svatove. Never realized that the front would pause for so much combat there. But it looks like it did. Armor was designed to cross such ground. And anti-armor designed to stop it. Carnage. With local control of the air space, attack choppers would have a field day. But

"They came on in the same old way, and we sent them back in the same old way.“ —  Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington

UA defensive tactics likely will likely break Russia's back in these sectors. Many are familiar with these words:

https://www.bevinalexander.com/excerpts/world-war-ii/rommel-recipe-success-africa.htm

And a little bit on what the US Army is up to:

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2022/11/01/most-troops-deployed-for-ukraine-response-still-in-europe/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

Edited November 3, 2022 by kevinkin

[LongLeftFlank]

13 hours ago, Kinophile said:

AGGGGHHHH!  You didn't warn me! It's a LIBERAL site, man! My eyes! My EEEEYYYESS!!!!! 

just teasing

@danfrodo in action!

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

A sat image of the Rostov helicopter losses from the attack last week:

Steve

Wait, wut??!!!!

Pskov is up north next to Estonia, and IMHO a prime candidate to break away from Russia as its own free republic postwar (land border with Baltics + dense taiga/lakes + huge population of disgusted ex-paratroopers => a local militia that would quickly chew and spit out any  intruders from Moscow)

Did I miss something big while I was away (work travel)?

Edited November 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

NamEndedAllen, got it, my brain misfired the first time I read it, and just stuck there. 

Edit: So sorry, meant to say that the first time...

Much appreciated - and it is an awkward looking choice. But when I wrote up a brief account as he told it, it was the title that came to me. Keeping memory of his bravery alive.

[Rokko]

Does anyone know what happened to @Grigb? Hope he didn't get mobilized or arrested or anything.

[Huba]

36 minutes ago, Rokko said:

Does anyone know what happened to @Grigb? Hope he didn't get mobilized or arrested or anything.

IIRC he wasn't based in RU but emigrated a long time ago, so hopefully he's all right. Perhaps he's taking a break? Between the fronts not moving, and major crackdown on any dissent in Russian Telegram, there's much less of his thing to do. He is missed though!

Edited November 3, 2022 by Huba

[G.I. Joe]

11 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

That's what I call a ballsy move!

Pilots will be pilots.

Fly that track over the States and it's cause for disciplinary action, fly it over another NATO ally and it's all that and possibly a minor diplomatic incident to boot, fly it next to Russian territory and it's..."communicating."