How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

Just now, Beleg85 said:

No problem, just mind it is not 1:1 translation but rather essence of what was said. There are perhaps autotranslation tools able to give you more detailed view.

Unfortunately YouTube doesn't have closed captioning for that video for whatever reason.

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Unfortunately YouTube doesn't have closed captioning for that video for whatever reason.

Yup, people nudge the creator of the channel to make some ENG captions, but frankly he is rather well...amateurish historian and author (and leave it here, let's say) known for rather simple-minded questions and inadequate timing/interrupting. He is good businessmen though, from the start of the war have very interesting guests in his program and thus is worth subscribing. If you will have some specific questions about translation feel free to ask. Theoretically one could compressed the youtube to audio and translate by other tool like Veed, but I doubt it is worth the effort.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Lots of M113s

 

OK, I'm happy to see all of those dusty M113s being put to good use.  However, I don't care where they are they shouldn't be spaced like that.  If this is near the front then I'd like to politely ask the local commander to slap himself a few times for allowing this.

Steve

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Lots of M113s

 

What's a collection of Gavin's called? A squander?

I'VE GOT IT -

A Giggle Of Gavins!

 

Thank you, thank you, here all week folks, here all week; tip your waitress, they're working hard tonight, try the beef stroganoff, its to die for....

Edited October 20, 2022 by Kinophile

[Calamine Waffles]

54 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, people nudge the creator of the channel to make some ENG captions, but frankly he is rather well...amateurish historian and author (and leave it here, let's say) known for rather simple-minded questions and inadequate timing/interrupting. He is good businessmen though, from the start of the war have very interesting guests in his program and thus is worth subscribing. If you will have some specific questions about translation feel free to ask. Theoretically one could compressed the youtube to audio and translate by other tool like Veed, but I doubt it is worth the effort.

 

Specifically I'm interested in what he has to say about the role tanks played in the counteroffensive, if he has more to say, thanks.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

-More strategic thoughts- he doesn't think Russian soldier, despite being cruel and ruthless to civilians, is necessarly "mobilized peasant". Some are like that, but many he met were well led professionals knowing their job. Also people at home laughing about Putin's mobilization should consider the influx of infantry, even weak one, will have significant effect on RU ability to hold terrain (especially urban) and plug holes at the front, thus changing nature of war into more linear and static. Once they will be there in mass, It will be more and more difficult for UA special teams to infiltrate the lines, and even recruits with guns can turn any urban fight into nightmare. He generally warns against treating RU mobiks lightly, as disregard for enemy is what started this war in first place [ very good point, btw; I think we sligthly slipped into echo chamber laughing at examples of Russian mobiks being drunk or send into meatgrinder. In favourite conditions, even dying by hundreds, they can make a difference].

For sure the mass of mobiks can have an effect.  Bodies with guns are still problems that have to be overcome that wouldn't otherwise be there.  Therefore, Mobiks are capable of slowing down Ukraine's progress.

However, Mobiks are not capable of reversing or even arresting Ukraine's offensive operations.  That takes experienced forces and those have been in steep decline for Russia since the war started.  Some of the Mobiks are well motivated and have prior military experience, making them more likely to survive initial contact and become more problematic the next time they are encountered.  But how many out of the partially mobilized fit this description?

There is also Russia's reliance upon artillery to consider.  Look at what Ukraine has been able to do to Russia's pre-war forces while on the defensive and heavily bombarded.  Mass Russian casualties for little gain after the initial territory taken.  The thought of lower quality Mobiks with less artillery support should not put fear into the heart of the Ukrainian soldier.  Caution, yes, but that should always be the case.  A 14 year old German kid with a Panzerfaust and MP-40 could cause a lot of trouble before getting himself killed.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

What's a collection of Gavin's called? A squander?

I'VE GOT IT -

A Giggle Of Gavins!

 

Thank you, thank you, here all week folks, here all week; tip your waitress, they're working hard tonight, try the beef stroganoff, its to die for....

Winner of October 2022's Mike Sparks Comedy Award goes to [unseals envelope handed to him by beautiful assistant]... Kinophile, for his one man show entitled "A Giggle of Gavins, and other crazy Internet stuff".

Steve

[chuckdyke]

The reason Russia is evacuating civilians. I doubt it is because of humanitarian responsibilities. I think more to do they don't want their positions in Kherson revealed. 

[G.I. Joe]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Winner of October 2022's Mike Sparks Comedy Award goes to [unseals envelope handed to him by beautiful assistant]... Kinophile, for his one man show entitled "A Giggle of Gavins, and other crazy Internet stuff".

Steve

(I'll save @Splinty the trouble of reminding us that the Gavin nickname is apocryphal internet lore. )

That being said, it has occurred to me that one possible title for an eventual historical module for CMBS might be Gavins & Glasbaks...

Edited October 20, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Kinophile]

46 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Winner of October 2022's Mike Sparks Comedy Award goes to [unseals envelope handed to him by beautiful assistant]... Kinophile, for his one man show entitled "A Giggle of Gavins, and other crazy Internet stuff".

Steve

Thank you,  I put less effort into it than the armor thickness on a M113. 

 

[Artkin]

Putin declared martial law in annexed territories... Well that isn't much of a difference when your rogue troops are assassinating civilians at gunpoint without consequence.

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Putin declared martial law in annexed territories... Well that isn't much of a difference when your rogue troops are assassinating civilians at gunpoint without consequence.

I don't know why anybody out there is paying any attention to Putin's declaration.  If Russia was really imposing martial law it would be an improvement over the current genocide.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

The reason Russia is evacuating civilians. I doubt it is because of humanitarian responsibilities. I think more to do they don't want their positions in Kherson revealed. 

I think there's multiple reasons, including this one.  First and foremost, Russia's demonstrated strategy since the war started is robbing Ukraine of Human resources.  Depleting the population, however it is done, is war aim for Russia.  Second, removing people removes witnesses to war crimes.  Third, it potentially bolsters Russia's population base by bringing pro-Russian Ukrainians into defendable territory.  The pensioners don't really do that, but I suppose there's PR value.  Forth, to get rid of potential partisan problems.

EDIT... I just read ISW's report from yesterday and they reminded me of the obvious one mentioned here many times already, which is impressing Ukrainians into the war effort.  Here's what ISW wrote:

Quote

Russia continues to use the guise of civilian “evacuations” as a cover for the mass forced removal of civilians from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Saldo’s announcement of a mass withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River is likely intended in part to evacuate Russian occupation officials, collaborators, and other occupation organs in anticipation of imminent Ukrainian advances, but Russian officials are likely also using the façade of humanitarian necessity to deport large populations of Ukrainians to Russia, as ISW has previously reported. Russia does not appear to reap any economic benefits from resettling tens of thousands of unwilling Ukrainians in Russia, suggesting that the purpose of such removals is both to damage Ukraine’s long-term economic recovery as it retakes its territory and, more importantly, to support Russia’s ethnic cleansing campaign, which is attempting to eradicate the Ukrainian ethnicity and culture.[5]  The Russians may also intend to press “evacuated” Ukrainians into their armed forces, offsetting the losses and failures of the partial mobilization.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a possible strategy for Ukraine!  Just sit around and do nothing for a few months and wait for the partial mobilization to either bankrupt Russia or have unpaid and angry Mobiks marching to Moscow armed and pissed off.  From ISW's Oct 19th report:

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin passed a decree on October 19 seeking to address Russian military personnels’ ongoing concerns about timely payments.[50] The decree stipulates that personnel of the Russian Armed Forces are guaranteed to receive at least 195,000 rubles per calendar month in a timely manner. The decree charges the Russian MoD and the Ministry of Finance with ensuring that Russian military personnel including all newly mobilized servicemembers receive timely payments. ISW previously reported that Kremlin officials indirectly acknowledged problems with financing Putin’s partial mobilization order and that there have been consistent reports from different regions in Russia about newly mobilized personnel not receiving payments on time or at all.[51] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 19 that Russian officials are also experiencing significant problems with paying military personnel participating in combat in Ukraine.[52] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that some relatives of Russian soldiers killed in action have not received promised compensation.[53] Putin likely signed the decree to prevent further social tensions from forming as a result of payment concerns. Putin also likely placed the responsibility for timely payments partially on Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu (whom Putin named in his decree) so that Shoigu would bear the brunt of public criticism if the issue of timely payments persists.

Or Ukraine can kill enough Russians that they can't afford to pay any death benefits and get all those new brides to march on Moscow

Steve

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I suspect Ukraine have not just solved for Offensive, but also for Opponent Mental Bandwidth*.

Russia is always very slow in coordinating against two disparate attacks, from operational all the way down to tactical. With enough time (read: far too much) it does eventually get there, but by then its more a question of if the attacker has temporarily worn itself out rather than any institutional ability in the local Stavka. Sheep-Bothering and Washing Machine Relocation will do that do an organization...

* @The_Capt I'm sure you have the appropriate noun?

Cognitive superiority.

[Taranis]

8 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

I didn't know this one even towed howitzer don't need a truck to reposition. These can travel up to 20 km by themselves.

 

TRF-1 uses this kind of engine. It only serves to help the gunners handle the gun. The latter being too heavy, this makes it possible to reduce the crew necessary for its operation and to move it a little more easily before setting it up.  And somehow accelerating the packing-up of the piece to leave the firing position before any enemy counter battery fire.

The prime mover is therefore necessary for movement between firing positions

Edited October 20, 2022 by Taranis

[kevinkin]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

adventures of sergeant 'Krzysztof X"

This reads like watching Klammer's 1976 Olympics downhill gold medal race. He was on the edge of disaster the entire time. Could this be the operational norm for Ukraine spread across 1000 miles of front? A modern version of Hutier tactics?  Apparently so even if these "special detachment"s need to be concentrated to affect a break through. Thanks again for the translation!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infiltration_tactics

Edited October 20, 2022 by kevinkin

[potato4212]

For lack of a better term what is the tier list for equipment (such as small arms, communications equipment, optics, body armor ,NVGS and thermals etc) in the Ukrainian army?

How much better is the 93rd mech equipped compared to the average Ukrainian Unit?

what are TDF units equipped with, is there any standardization of equipment?

Does any of the high end gear that kraken guys get, trickle down to other units?

[Zeleban]

23 minutes ago, potato4212 said:

For lack of a better term what is the tier list for equipment (such as small arms, communications equipment, optics, body armor ,NVGS and thermals etc) in the Ukrainian army?

How much better is the 93rd mech equipped compared to the average Ukrainian Unit?

what are TDF units equipped with, is there any standardization of equipment?

Does any of the high end gear that kraken guys get, trickle down to other units?

I think that at the moment no one can say what exactly each brigade is equipped with, since this information is carefully guarded. Judging by the photos on social networks, there is no standardization of equipment in the troops. Each brigade, in addition to the previously available samples of equipment and equipment, receives equipment from volunteer organizations and donations, equipment supplied as military aid from NATO countries, as well as captured equipment, which the units that captured it are in no hurry to hand over to the rear, but use at the front.

[chuckdyke]

Very sad I think he found his car on the side of the road.

 

[Holien]

Hmmm undersea cables are getting damaged. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-63326102

 

[Taranis]

A little off topic but some fun facts about nuclear incidents risks :

 

[Beleg85]

11 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Specifically I'm interested in what he has to say about the role tanks played in the counteroffensive, if he has more to say, thanks.

Unfortunatelly, not much beyond what I wrote, except his team was chased by single RU tank at the outskirts of Kupyansk and they need risky "cat and mouse" play to avoid it, since they were separated or otherwise lost their AT weapons (take note, it is recon team not specifically tank hunters). Overall his team had some bad experience with AT weapons, being insufficent, broken or too valuable to loose; when in previous interview journo being overexcited asked "So how many tanks you destoyed with your Javelins?" (media workers...) he needed to school him there are no "silver bullets" in real war and using  even Javelin is difficult in present conditions, as it is entire separate combat mission- AT teams need to have good positions, cons of fire, escape routes etc.. He specifically mentioned "carrousel tactics" is now used by muscovites:

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/russias-new-tank-carousel-tactics-have-been-around-ages-185151

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

This reads like watching Klammer's 1976 Olympics downhill gold medal race. He was on the edge of disaster the entire time. Could this be the operational norm for Ukraine spread across 1000 miles of front? A modern version of Hutier tactics?  Apparently so even if these "special detachment"s need to be concentrated to affect a break through. Thanks again for the translation!

Yup, those guys are tip of the spear, and together with SSO and Tank crews considered elite in UA army. Interesting thing is they were actually not numerous, and followed by mechanzied troops from the start. It seems destroyed RU equipment they met on roads was previous work of artillery, drones or UA aviation rather than special teams alone.

He still refused to provide many details how exactly they broke the front, except they have "their own ways" and focusied on small tactics in his sector; I suppose it was connected to advanced ISR and tapping of famously shoddy Russian comms.

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is also Russia's reliance upon artillery to consider.  Look at what Ukraine has been able to do to Russia's pre-war forces while on the defensive and heavily bombarded.  Mass Russian casualties for little gain after the initial territory taken.  The thought of lower quality Mobiks with less artillery support should not put fear into the heart of the Ukrainian soldier.  Caution, yes, but that should always be the case.  A 14 year old German kid with a Panzerfaust and MP-40 could cause a lot of trouble before getting himself killed.

His view here is connected to his tactical profiling (recon) and specific front, and indeed when asked "What Ukrainians think of mobilization?" he respond they will greet them as before and are not scared by any means. But he has no illusion they will need to pay in blood for increased Russian presence especially in urban combats, as "even Afghan teenagers can shoot kalashnikov and are deadly in right cicumstances".  Note you are most probably right from strategic point of view, but soldier who need to assault a village infested with Russians would probably still prefer to meet 3 Specnaz guys than 10 mobiks. RU Artilery fire also does not seem to decreased judged by his words, but it can be an issue on his sector only. From other sectors and Russian channels we know Russians lacked heavy ammo quite often; but not at Kupyansk- they were able to chase single teams with massive barrages. Also fires by Russian aviation did seem to play significant part there, just as muscovite milbloggers reported.

Also interesting are his thoughts about Russian armour; he claims they did not lack good eqiupment or tactical skill, but due to lack of infantry Russians were forced to ram their lines in doomed assaults.

Edited October 20, 2022 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

13 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

[ very good point, btw; I think we sligthly slipped into echo chamber laughing at examples of Russian mobiks being drunk or send into meatgrinder. In favourite conditions, even dying by hundreds, they can make a difference].

Very good point. I expect NATO is entertaining a whole host of scenarios including a slower grind to operations even if Russian conscripts just get in the way. Again, momentum is key and I would not want to see the front "stabilize". The longer this mess goes on, the more uncertain the situation can become. Not sure about anyone else, it seems world is resigning itself to a long war which would only be advantageous to Russia if they can pull a rabbit out of the hat. We are not at a point where the West is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But we better be careful and keep the pressure on. 

[Taranis]

Aerial incident over the Black Sea between a British plane and two Russian fighters

Quote

 

Ben Wallace, Britain's defense secretary, told the House of Commons that a Russian fighter jet had recently fired a missile near a British reconnaissance plane in "international airspace over the sea Noire” which borders southern Ukraine and certain territories annexed by Russia such as Crimea .

The incident occurred on September 29, when an RC-135 Rivet Joint [electronic surveillance, unarmed] aircraft was intercepted by two Russian Su-27 fighters.

One “fired a missile close to the RAF aircraft beyond visual range,  ” the minister added. London expressed its "concerns" to the Russian Defense Minister, who replied on October 10 "that an investigation had been carried out into the circumstances of the incident and that it was a technical malfunction of the SU-27" and that it had taken place over international waters. "We don't see this as a deliberate escalation by the Russians," the minister continued. British reconnaissance patrols are now escorted by fighter jets, he added.

The United Kingdom is one of the main supporters of Ukraine and has provided it with significant arms aid. In June 2021, Moscow claimed that Russian ships and aircraft fired warning shots at a British destroyer that entered Russian territorial waters off Crimea.