How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bufo]

Nah PEBKAC is the real one.

https://www.computerhope.com/jargon/p/pebkac.htm 

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

The Ukraine side we can only do educated guesses at.  If we assume that infantry losses have some correlation to equipment losses, the Oryx site provides some indications about how the UA infantry is doing.  Reducing the pace of (land) advance implies either slackened fighting or increased attrition. I think the latter, based on continued loss rates.  For example, the Russian army has, incredibly, lost about 400 tanks in the last six weeks.

 

Losses can also be indirectly judged by the number of recruits called in to replace the losses. On this occasion, I can say that of all my friends, and these are more than 100 people (aged 30 to 40), only two are currently in the army and both went there voluntarily. On the street, I see a lot of men of military age, that is, no one captures men on the streets and sends them to the army, as was the case in Russia. If the losses of the Ukrainian army were critical, the situation that I observe would be directly opposite.

[dan/california]

The forum needs some info from the front, or some info about the new game. only one of those is directly controlled by any of our members, to the best of my knowledge. So for the love of %%%* can we get a bone? 

Edit: My God my spelling is awful.....

Edited October 20, 2022 by dan/california

[RandomCommenter]

More Russian sabotage?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/20/shetland-loses-telephone-internet-services-subsea-cable-damaged

 

Also of note

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130116/-Ukraine-update-Looting-and-chaos-spread-as-Russian-control-of-Kherson-area-unravels

 

[Zeleban]

A few more words about Ukrainian super weapons in our echo chamber

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

A few more words about Ukrainian super weapons in our echo chamber

LOL!

[danfrodo]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The forum needs some info from the front, or some info about the new game. only one of tose is directly controlled by any oof our members, to the best of my knowledge. So for the love of %%%* can we get a bone? 

I gave a like for this but if I could spend a second on it I would .   BFC opsec is the world class! 

[Zeleban]

Putin reviewed the equipment of his troops. He made sure that his army did not experience any problems with equipment, and everyone who claims the opposite is impudent liars.

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

Putin reviewed the equipment of his troops. He made sure that his army did not experience any problems with equipment, and everyone who claims the opposite is impudent liars.

Winter cometh...

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

More Russian sabotage?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/20/shetland-loses-telephone-internet-services-subsea-cable-damaged

 

Also of note

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130116/-Ukraine-update-Looting-and-chaos-spread-as-Russian-control-of-Kherson-area-unravels

 

The Russians are not going to get the point that they have lost this war until and unless the power goes out in Moscow, and stays out for a month. Ideally this would be done by an untraceable cyber attack in the middle of a winter cold snap. Ukraine and the West should just deny any involvement and make nasty jokes about Russian "maintenance". 

 

It really sounds like Kherson is headed towards the final crack up.

Apparently the pontoon bridge went boom.

Edited October 20, 2022 by dan/california

[Combatintman]

5 hours ago, chrisl said:

I suspect that the "technical malfunction" was PEBSAC related, and they've agreed publicly on the statement.  There are probably some harsher words in the background.

Well yes but the encouraging thing about the incident when examined through the prism of "we're going to nuke London" and similar threats that have been bandied around since the get go is that Russia could have reacted very differently to this e.g., "the aircraft was spying on Russian forces and was in airspace close to a warzone ahem ... special military operation zone that improved its chances of doing so and was; therefore, operating at risk," or something even more bellicose followed up by announcing an exclusion zone on pain of being shot down over the Black Sea for NATO military aircraft.

[kevinkin]

51 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

They are enablers of authoritarianism.

Directly from the Hill article (Brookings is a liberal think tank BTW):

"Michael E. O’Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research in foreign policy at Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, said “it will be fascinating to watch” the debate over Ukraine assistance play out among Republicans.

He warned that McCarthy needs to be careful so that he doesn’t come across as inadvertently helping Putin.  

“I have a hard time believing that deep down, McCarthy and most Trump Republicans really will want to be seen as the folks that prevent Ukraine from staying afloat as a country,” he wrote in an email to The Hill. “The political perils of actually helping Putin win would be enormous — to say nothing of the ethical downsides.” "

Like I said a couple of days ago, no one wants to be on the losing side of this once in a life time geopolitical issue. Unless a political figure can be proven to be on Putin's payroll (maybe there are a very a few on either side), then let's stop the "they care about supporting dictators" hyperbole. It will go nowhere. 

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

The Russians are not going to get the point that they have lost this war until and unless the power goes out in Moscow, and stays out for a month. Ideally this would be done by an untraceable cyber attack in the middle of a winter cold snap. Ukraine and the West should just deny any involvement and make nasty jokes about Russian "maintenance". 

 

It really sounds like Kherson is headed towards the final crack up.

Apparently the pontoon bridge went boom.

Excellent news. Hope they finally manage to blow the Kerch bridge to hell the next days as well.

[danfrodo]

sorry if this was already shared, but I just saw it and thought it was good.  BBC news video w some small arms combat.  

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, acrashb said:

The 'devolution' of the thread is partly inevitable, as net-new news (vs. more pictures of HIMARS) that can be thoughtfully analyzed dries up.  This is a combination of better OPSEC all around, less movement of the front line, and overall 'groundhog day' syndrome.

Well the issue is that this war is definitely of the old way, slow and grinding with sharp pulses.  Analysis needs phenomena to unpack and evaluate.  From that one can test assumptions and theories, or synthesize new ones. We only see a limited amount of actual new phenomena.  

We see lots of tweets of tanks getting blown up, or arty or aircraft or infantry but these are all tactical vignettes.  Sometimes these vignettes yield an insight but often they are just snapshots.  Russian bashing makes people feel better in a pretty uncertain time, so it is bound to happen.  In a bizarro world in Russia there probably is a small wargame company forum filled with people Ukraine/West bashing.

One thing that is becoming troubling is the lack of movement at Kherson.  UA is still projecting corrosive warfare on the Russian operational system but that system, though falling back, is still holding.  The theory was that fog-eating-snow would erode the RA forces on the wrong side of the river until they collapsed, much as they had done elsewhere, but that still has not fully developed.  I think we said that end-Oct the weather turns against the attacker, maybe early Nov.  So the UA might have 2-3 weeks to make gains, or at least gains that do not cost too much?  

Not sure what is happening but it is possible that ISR and precision are not enough, or maybe they need more precision mass.  Possibly not enough heavy mass, although we have seen little of that utility outside of Kharkiv.  Or maybe these things just take more time and the RA will fully collapse next week.  Either way if the RA can hold then we likely have to revisit the underlying theories and assumptions.  

All of this will take more solid data, and until we have that…well not much to do but wait.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Well yes but the encouraging thing about the incident when examined through the prism of "we're going to nuke London" and similar threats that have been bandied around since the get go is that Russia could have reacted very differently to this e.g., "the aircraft was spying on Russian forces and was in airspace close to a warzone ahem ... special military operation zone that improved its chances of doing so and was; therefore, operating at risk," or something even more bellicose followed up by announcing an exclusion zone on pain of being shot down over the Black Sea for NATO military aircraft.

The Russians DO NOT want to fight NATO. If they did the ~70,000 KIA they have already had, a very large percentage of them killed with NATO hardware, is orders of magnitude more casa belli than anyone who wanted to fight has ever needed.

[Zeleban]

 

By the way, this can be useful on the front line. A wonderful maneuver to dodge enemy bullets, I imagine how hard it is to hit such a target. Excuse my sarcasm, but I'm in a great mood. I just got electricity after 5 hours of blackout

[Combatintman]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Russians DO NOT want to fight NATO. If they did the ~70,000 KIA they have already had, a very large percentage of them killed with NATO hardware, is orders of magnitude more casa belli than anyone who wanted to fight has ever needed.

I know, but the subtlety of this reaction is important to grasp.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, MSBoxer said:

PEBSAC =Problem Exists Between Seat and Computer 

When I was in I.T. we used 

PEBSAK =Problem Exists Between Seat and Keyboard

I was thinking “between stick and chair” when I wrote that, assuming that Russian aircraft don’t have keyboards.

Somebody pushed a button they shouldn’t have.

[Zeleban]

 

Maybe you remember this episode...

[Probus]

New news?

 

 

[dan/california]

42 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well the issue is that this war is definitely of the old way, slow and grinding with sharp pulses.  Analysis needs phenomena to unpack and evaluate.  From that one can test assumptions and theories, or synthesize new ones. We only see a limited amount of actual new phenomena.  

We see lots of tweets of tanks getting blown up, or arty or aircraft or infantry but these are all tactical vignettes.  Sometimes these vignettes yield an insight but often they are just snapshots.  Russian bashing makes people feel better in a pretty uncertain time, so it is bound to happen.  In a bizarro world in Russia there probably is a small wargame company forum filled with people Ukraine/West bashing.

One thing that is becoming troubling is the lack of movement at Kherson.  UA is still projecting corrosive warfare on the Russian operational system but that system, though falling back, is still holding.  The theory was that fog-eating-snow would erode the RA forces on the wrong side of the river until they collapsed, much as they had done elsewhere, but that still has not fully developed.  I think we said that end-Oct the weather turns against the attacker, maybe early Nov.  So the UA might have 2-3 weeks to make gains, or at least gains that do not cost too much?  

Not sure what is happening but it is possible that ISR and precision are not enough, or maybe they need more precision mass.  Possibly not enough heavy mass, although we have seen little of that utility outside of Kharkiv.  Or maybe these things just take more time and the RA will fully collapse next week.  Either way if the RA can hold then we likely have to revisit the underlying theories and assumptions.  

All of this will take more solid data, and until we have that…well not much to do but wait.

At least two of the major factors in play. 

1. Kherson is billiard table flat, and with less trees than other parts of Ukraine. It is the worst case scenario for the sneaky and then fast that the Ukrainians are good at.

2. Due to HIMARS and the way the river divides the Russian forces, plus the epic lack of cover mentioned above. the AFU has been winning the artillery duel rather handily. They have let that play out for a while., a LOT of Grad and Uragan batteries have gone boom.

So one reason that is good for Ukraine, and one that is less so.

Edited October 20, 2022 by dan/california

[Beleg85]

Not directly military, but connected to war. Just started to watch it, pretty veristic depiction of life under muscovite occupation:

 

[quakerparrot67]

22 hours ago, chrisl said:

The thing I’ve been wondering is where they would do such a test.  The main Soviet test range was in Kazakhstan, but I bet they aren’t interested in renting it back out to Vlad.  

there was also novya zemlya  up by the arctic circle, where the REAL big one was tested.

 

cheers,

rob

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

UA is still projecting corrosive warfare on the Russian operational system but that system, though falling back, is still holding

One small quibble w the TheCapt, and w the bigger narrative on UA vs RU right now.  I would change the end of the above sentence to say "though falling back, is NOW holding", not still holding.  RU just lost a gigantic swath of territory in the biggest victories and advances seen since after the first week or so of this war.  The loses in Kharkiv region were astonishing, including the region's #1 supply hub, Kupyansk.  In Kherson they just lost ~1/3 of the kessel.  U

Things have slowed down now due to a number of factors. Supply, weather, wear and tear, need for rest, RU falling back on interior lines, RU moving more forces onto the Svatove front (incl mobiks) -- all these factor into what's happening now w/o having to start thinking here's something wrong suddenly w UKR.  The success they just had was phenomenal but RU getting stronger on shorter, interior lines doesn't mean UKR tactics won't work again.

Did any of us really think UKR would've collapsed the entire RU army by now?  So there's nothing more wrong w UKR than there was a few weeks ago.  And there's nothing more right about RU army than there was a few weeks ago.  RU's supply situation has gotten worse, they've lost a ton of equipment, and they've completely lost arty superiority.  And they are about to donate a mountain more equipment to UKR when Kherson falls, unless they actually sabotage all their vehicles before they flee -- pretty doubtful given past performance.  

Edited October 20, 2022 by danfrodo
typo