Jump to content

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

we are so far past the point where Russia needs to be declared a state sponsor of terrorism.

For me, Russia crossed that line with its Polonium and its Novichok and its systematic destruction of Grozny. So, a while ago. I'm not sure its Syrian activities count as "terrorism" because they're "in support of the recognised authority".

Unfortunately, doesn't that declaration have to go through the UNSC? Or can it just be done unilaterally and individually by Governments.

Though, apparently, getting Russia off the UNSC (and replacing them with another of the USSR's successor states, say, y'know, Ukraine) is an administrative matter, and not subject to veto...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it is more important if countries themselves declare it terrorist. If they do, the various law enforcements and judiciaries can bring whole new list of anti-terrorist laws on people who are on Russia's payroll, helping it or just supporting it online.

I think that's also why nobody did it. The West prefers not doing what it doesn't have to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, womble said:

Unfortunately, doesn't that declaration have to go through the UNSC? Or can it just be done unilaterally and individually by Governments.

The one that matters is the US.  If the US puts a country on that list, its normal life is over.  The US can apply penalties to anybody who deals with a nation on that list, so a country wanting to continue doing business with Russia would have to choose between it and doing business in the US.  Similar situation with the sanctions that are currently in place.

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@sburke

Major Pyotr Tochilkin, chief of liason of artillery brigade. Killed on 13th Sep

Lt.colonel Mikhail Yermolin, battalion commander (artillery or AT) of 126th coastal defense brigade of 22nd Army Corps of Black Sea Fleet. Killed around 2nd March near Mykolaiv. His documents were posted resently, but now we have visual confirmation of his body in refregirator with his name, marked on plaque. On July his body still in Ukraine.

"Lt.colonel" of DPR Vladimir Sheyko, citizen of Ukraine, 1st motor-rifle brigade of DPR. When he was a major he was a commaner of artillery battalion. Currend duty unknown. Got killed 15th Oct.

 

 

Edited by Haiduk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

In his last video, Perun mentioned Ukraine is in danger of running out of air defence missiles, and they would be hard to replenish by West, since West doesn't really focus on air defence much, because they can assume they will have F-whatever backing them instead.

There are usually well informed analysts accounts here that claim Ukrainians are close to run out of S-300 and Buks. Given large amount of Iranian drones Russians will most probably try to renew their wave attacks to force Ukrainians to overcome the defences. Further mixed strikes with drones and cruise missiles are also to be expected.

Sticking within AA topics, note how fast Russian artillery reacted here. Only seconds between this Ukrainian Manpad (unsuccessfull) shot and arrivals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting episode - UKR drone spotted enemy drone, equipped with VOG-grenades dropping system (likely some Russian volunteer unit or LDPR unit - Russian regualrs alsmost didn't use such "inventions").  UKR drone escrorted own opponent and than soldier with anti-drone rifle jammed enemy drone and intercepting control, conducted sharp swing movement of enemy drone in order to hanged grenades hit each other and exploded. The drone was destroyed. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting episode - UKR drone spotted enemy drone, equipped with VOG-grenades dropping system (likely some Russian volunteer unit or LDPR unit - Russian regualrs alsmost didn't use such "inventions").  UKR drone escrorted own opponent and than soldier with anti-drone rifle jammed enemy drone and intercepting control, conducted sharp swing movement of enemy drone in order to hanged grenades hit each other and exploded. The drone was destroyed. 

 

 

 

We can confidently say that it was not a detonation on board the drone, but an explosion from outside. It is clearly seen that the detonation starts away from the drone. This thread claims it was a MANPADS missile:

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There are usually well informed analysts accounts here that claim Ukrainians are close to run out of S-300 and Buks. Given large amount of Iranian drones Russians will most probably try to renew their wave attacks to force Ukrainians to overcome the defences. Further mixed strikes with drones and cruise missiles are also to be expected.

Sticking within AA topics, note how fast Russian artillery reacted here. Only seconds between this Ukrainian Manpad (unsuccessfull) shot and arrivals.

That was a load of high-drag bombs from the fighter with long delay fuze.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

We can confidently say that it was not a detonation on board the drone, but an explosion from outside. It is clearly seen that the detonation starts away from the drone. This thread claims it was a MANPADS missile:

 

Alas, I havn't own account in twitter, so can't see locked twits (

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The brilliance of the Nassams system is that it uses air to air missiles that NATO has tens of thousands of. Although for the next war clearly you have a laser system or surrender. Not 100% if IRIS T has the same trick or not.

 

Not - IRIS-T is actually the name of the rocket. The system's name is 'IRIS-T SL'.

And the AA version of the rocket differs from the surface-to-air version, so I doubt that there are a lot. But it is at least about half the price of an AIM-120.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, poesel said:

Not - IRIS-T is actually the name of the rocket. The system's name is 'IRIS-T SL'.

And the AA version of the rocket differs from the surface-to-air version, so I doubt that there are a lot. But it is at least about half the price of an AIM-120.

Quantity might matter. Can it fire the AIM-120?

Edit: Or can the IRIS-T SL radar que a NASSAMS launcher? Somebody ought to be working on at least one of those tricks.

Edited by dan/california
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

Assuming they attack, yep. I don't think they will get far at all if it happens. Belarus only has something like 2 corps for its entire military, all of which have no real combat experience. The Russians probably had some veterans still throughout its ranks after years of engaging their neighbors.

No, I meant they will be doing all those things inside Belarus.  That's my point.  Bringing in these folks and arming them given current RU logistic, training, and command issues is a recipe for having foreign armed gangs roaming Belarus countryside.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, akd said:

That was a load of high-drag bombs from the fighter with long delay fuze.

Interesting, some guys in comments claim it was Grad or something similar but indeed you may be right. You think he dropped them on target or randomly, trying to escape missiles?

 

Also, today there are heavy fights reported in Bakhmut area; Russians increased heavy fires there and in Soledar... it seems Prigozin and his Dirlewagnerites are very desparate to have some success.

Mateusz Lachowski again make some reports directly from the town (I am actually surprised they let him so close to the war zone, guy has really good contacts in UA military). He says Russians strikes mauled some districts of the town almost to the bone, which you cna see in video.

https://twitter.com/LachowskiMateus/status/1582079710124572673

Town is increasingly fortified, covered with roadblocks, bunkers and safehouses. He predicts that muscovites will need to pay hectolitres of blood if they want to conqer those several kms they have left to the city center. In other place he also praises brigade defending the town (I presume he means 58th, but there are also some TD guys there).

Edited by Beleg85
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Interesting, some guys in comments claim it was Grad or something similar but indeed you may be right. You think he dropped them on target or randomly, trying to escape missiles?

Probably going for the tree line.  You can see at least two bombs with drag chutes at about 0:09.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Artkin said:

9000 Conscripts? I guess it matters what kind of troops they're sending over. Russia can't really afford to send 9000 hardened troops over, even as cadre at this point. Even if troops are diverted, Ukraine will hold the line initially with lower quality TD troops I assume.

Just another distraction and Putler´s all too obvious Maskirovka (attempts). UKR surely knows how to deal with all that info and is prepared for its possible consequences then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

11 minutes ago, akd said:

Probably going for the tree line.  You can see at least two bombs with drag chutes at about 0:09.

Yep, you are right, I thought them to be flares initially.

Perhaps posted before- a video of Ukrainian servicewomen that were exchanged today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Mateusz Lachowski again make some reports directly from the town (I am actually surprised they let him so close to the war zone, guy has really good contacts in UA military). He says Russians strikes mauled some districts of the town almost to the bone, which you cna see in video.

https://twitter.com/LachowskiMateus/status/1582079710124572673

Town is increasingly fortified, covered with roadblocks, bunkers and safehouses. He predicts that muscovites will need to pay hectolitres of blood if they want to conqer those several kms they have left to the city center. In other place he also praises brigade defending the town (I presume he means 58th, but there are also some TD guys there).

I´d guess UKR has fairly good knowledge on russian shooting routines so let him go out only when it´s considered rather "safe" at given periods.

Unfortunately it´ll be hecto litres of UKR guys (and gals) as well if they like making it a new "Stalingrad", similar to Mariopol maybe. I´d let the Wagnerites and other scum in, finishing them off for good by means of (timed) IED, mines, booby traps and from outside plastering with concentrated Arty and mortars. Then maybe counterattack similarly on how it was done at Sjevjerodonezk? 🤔

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some good news. Same group as Beleg's post I think.

"Another large-scale exchange of prisoners was carried out today. Emotional and truly special - we freed 108 women from captivity.
Mothers and daughters were in captivity, and their relatives were waiting for them.
37 evacuees from Azovstal, 11 officers, 85 privates and sergeants."

 

Edited by Fenris
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...