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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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31 minutes ago, kraze said:

Karma is beautiful this season in Yeysk

Another type of stress showing itself.  Russia's adherence to aviation safety was never good to start with, but with all the extra combat strain on the airforce and parts problems, it's even made even worse.  We've seen a couple of plane crashes recently and I expect we'll see more.  A commercial airliner crash, either cargo or passenger, will not be too far away.

Steve

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And remember that Russian journalist that did the on-air stunt with the sign?  Few of us here believed it was real and was instead some sort of orchestrated psyops stunt.  Well, she apparently was facing 10 years in prison and so she and her daughter left and are now in Europe somewhere.  If we believe her to be a Russian state asset then moving her there is likely part of it.  If we instead believe she was an asset for the RU Moderates, then she is likely there to escape real legal problems.  If she's just an anti-war protestor that the Russia used as a Useful Idiot, then it is also an escape.

Whatever the truth is, she's no longer in Russia:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3692812-russian-journalist-who-staged-anti-war-protest-on-state-tv-flees-country/

Steve

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2 hours ago, Tenses said:

why are Shahed actually called drones?

I read at one point that the US definition is that a drone can return to base and fight another day. Cruise missiles are one way and were not around when the INF treaty was concluded anyway. Russia has wanted to amend the treaty to include UAVs. 

https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/us-refused-to-accept-our-proposal-to-include-protocol-on-drones-in-inf-treaty-russia20191025211554/

 

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19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And remember that Russian journalist that did the on-air stunt with the sign?  Few of us here believed it was real and was instead some sort of orchestrated psyops stunt.  Well, she apparently was facing 10 years in prison and so she and her daughter left and are now in Europe somewhere.  If we believe her to be a Russian state asset then moving her there is likely part of it.  If we instead believe she was an asset for the RU Moderates, then she is likely there to escape real legal problems.  If she's just an anti-war protestor that the Russia used as a Useful Idiot, then it is also an escape.

Whatever the truth is, she's no longer in Russia:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3692812-russian-journalist-who-staged-anti-war-protest-on-state-tv-flees-country/

Steve

Steve. There was no doubt whatsoever her actions were genuine

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That Yeyvsk crash, Google translations:

https://www.kp.ru/daily/27458/4663493/

Su-34 plane crashed on a residential building in Yeysk: What is known
The Su-34 aircraft crashed on a 9-storey building in Yeysk in the Krasnodar Territory on October 17, 2022

Quote

A Su-34 military aircraft crashed on a residential building in Yeysk, Krasnodar Territory. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the incident occurred as a result of an unsuccessful attempt by the saw to climb to perform a training flight from the military airfield of the Southern Military District.

 

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3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

EU approves training mission, up to 15k trained personnel is suggested, two year mandate.

Important to emphasize, and as seen in the recent posts from frontline personnel, training is essential, if we assume the worst case and Russia pursues mobilization and long war, Ukraine will not only need equipment but personnel and money to wage this war, so continued EU support with money and personnel is just as important as equipment.

Use of Europe as safe harbor is all important especially as all of Ukraine is under threat of long range attack again. Important psychologically as well.

 

More and more this war becomes a fight for justice and freedom. The Ukrainian are fighting for their country, the right to live in freedom and democracy. All Western Europe including the Germans and the French should be doing all to provide heavy weaponry, incl tanks and aircraft, for the Ukrainians to defend western values and their freedom

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41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

 

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And remember that Russian journalist that did the on-air stunt with the sign?  Few of us here believed it was real and was instead some sort of orchestrated psyops stunt.  Well, she apparently was facing 10 years in prison and so she and her daughter left and are now in Europe somewhere.  If we believe her to be a Russian state asset then moving her there is likely part of it.  If we instead believe she was an asset for the RU Moderates, then she is likely there to escape real legal problems.  If she's just an anti-war protestor that the Russia used as a Useful Idiot, then it is also an escape.

Whatever the truth is, she's no longer in Russia:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3692812-russian-journalist-who-staged-anti-war-protest-on-state-tv-flees-country/

Steve

Probably part two of the show.

She lived in Germany but her BS about how sanctions make poor russians suffer and it's all "putin's war" didn't work (and how she's in fact 100% ethnic Ukrainian and is going to change her last name to a Ukrainian one - wonder where that all went) so instead of, you know, staying in a 'safe' place - she went back to Russia.

I mean russians aren't exactly about smarts (fining her $300 to make a martyr) but more about brute force so get ready for a new round of "martyr".

Edited by kraze
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9 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

That Yeyvsk crash, Google translations:

https://www.kp.ru/daily/27458/4663493/

Su-34 plane crashed on a residential building in Yeysk: What is known
The Su-34 aircraft crashed on a 9-storey building in Yeysk in the Krasnodar Territory on October 17, 2022

 

Obviously it wasn't a training flight, as evidenced by the video (non-stop secondaries) the plane was fully fueled and heavily loaded with bombs. It was clearly flying to the Donetsk area.

At least pilots did perform the given task of bombing civilians successfully.

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2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

These drones aren't in the category of "we put hand grenades on RC airplanes with inertial guidance systems".   Hand grenades don't do the damage in the photo.   These Iranian drones are more like modern versions of German V1s from WW2 that are propellor driven and smaller.  

Drone strike.jpg

I was really shocked to see the destructive power in the first posted photo.

Without a doubt Russia is a terrorist state. From now on I will ONLY refer to Russia as terrorists after these attacks.

Edited by Artkin
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

More pointless posturing from the Russian Rabble Regiments deployed to Belarus:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3692688-belarus-says-nearly-9000-russian-troops-will-deploy-to-ukraine-border/

Steve

9000 Conscripts? I guess it matters what kind of troops they're sending over. Russia can't really afford to send 9000 hardened troops over, even as cadre at this point. Even if troops are diverted, Ukraine will hold the line initially with lower quality TD troops I assume.

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2 hours ago, Tenses said:

Looking forward I think that this war shows how laser usage en masse will be a total game changer in future conflicts. Heavy laser defence of urban and static military targets, medium laser C-RAM of mechanized, artillery and SAM units, light laser on some individual vehicles for self-defense(especially airbone).

Absolutely those lasers are necessary. An intercept before Kiev would be the best solution. I cringe at the thought of where those AK rounds are landing, or what damage a laser could do if it swiped a glass facade building with people looking out the windows.

Edited by Artkin
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8 minutes ago, Artkin said:

9000 Conscripts? I guess it matters what kind of troops they're sending over. Russia can't really afford to send 9000 hardened troops over, even as cadre at this point. Even if troops are diverted, Ukraine will hold the line initially with lower quality TD troops I assume.

just means they can starve and freeze to death there instead of RU territory or at the front, I guess.  what happens when they start raiding local villages for food & shelter & clothing & booze?  And just to loot.  They are armed I would assume.  Gonna be ugly.

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2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I was really shocked to see the destructive power in the first posted photo.

Without a doubt Russia is a terrorist state. From now on I will ONLY refer to Russia as terrorists after these attacks.

That photograph looks like something you would see during the the Blitz, just terrible. We need to send everything we can to help protect civilians from Putin's terror bombings.

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2 hours ago, TheVulture said:

 

If intercepting the drones with air defense systems is not cost effective in terms of cost of drone vs cost of air defence consumables (but very necessary in terms of 'cost' of damage), then a better solution might be to 'intercept' them between Iran and Russia, or try and remove Iran's will or ability to provide the drones in the first place.

Intercepting anything between Russia and Iran will be quite hard since they share a border across the Caspian Sea.

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11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

just means they can starve and freeze to death there instead of RU territory or at the front, I guess.  what happens when they start raiding local villages for food & shelter & clothing & booze?  And just to loot.  They are armed I would assume.  Gonna be ugly.

Assuming they attack, yep. I don't think they will get far at all if it happens. Belarus only has something like 2 corps for its entire military, all of which have no real combat experience. The Russians probably had some veterans still throughout its ranks after years of engaging their neighbors.

 

12 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

That photograph looks like something you would see during the the Blitz, just terrible. We need to send everything we can to help protect civilians from Putin's terror bombings.

Absolutely agreed. My first comparison was the terror attacks on Britain.

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21 minutes ago, poesel said:

Intercepting anything between Russia and Iran will be quite hard since they share a border across the Caspian Sea.

I think in that case Ukraine might need longer range missiles and ISR improvements, so they can "intercept" the launch sites.

In his last video, Perun mentioned Ukraine is in danger of running out of air defence missiles, and they would be hard to replenish by West, since West doesn't really focus on air defence much, because they can assume they will have F-whatever backing them instead.

This drone terror bombing for deplete Ukrainian AD and then try for air superiority is one of the smartest things Russians did. If there is indeed strategy behind it, and not just pleasure gained from causing suffering.

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11 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think in that case Ukraine might need longer range missiles and ISR improvements, so they can "intercept" the launch sites.

In his last video, Perun mentioned Ukraine is in danger of running out of air defence missiles, and they would be hard to replenish by West, since West doesn't really focus on air defence much, because they can assume they will have F-whatever backing them instead.

This drone terror bombing for deplete Ukrainian AD and then try for air superiority is one of the smartest things Russians did. If there is indeed strategy behind it, and not just pleasure gained from causing suffering.

The brilliance of the Nassams system is that it uses air to air missiles that NATO has tens of thousands of. Although for the next war clearly you have a laser system or surrender. Not 100% if IRIS T has the same trick or not.

 

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Two hours ago we had third wave of Shakheds. 6 drones (well, more correctly to call them loitering munition, but drones for short also good) tried to approach to Kyiv from SE and E throug Boruspil and Brovary. Four were shot down over that towns, two could pass further, but where shot down over Kyiv

Except Kyiv, Brovary and Boryspil, other batch of drones attacked several other towns of Kyiv oblast - there were reports about air defense work from Vasyl'kiv, Fastiv and Bila Tserkva

Night engagement of Shakhed over Kyiv

Also one more video of rifle shooting at drones during todays first attack at 7:00

 

Edited by Haiduk
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19 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Two hours ago we had third wave of Shakheds. 6 drones (well, more correctly to call them loitering munition, but drones for short also good) tried to approach to Kyiv from SE and E throug Boruspil and Brovary. Four were shot down over that towns, two could pass further, but where shot down over Kyiv

Except Kyiv, Brovary and Boryspil, other batch of drones attacked several other towns of Kyiv oblast - there were reports about air defense work from Vasyl'kiv, Fastiv and Bila Tserkva

Night engagement of Shakhed over Kyiv

 

Also one more video of rifle shooting at drones during todays first attack at 7:00

 

 

we are so far past the point where Russia needs to be declared a state sponsor of terrorism.

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