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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Comic book manuals and *shudder* reading is so, like 1985, Daddy-O. The Millenials and Gen Zer(o)s viddy the old YT....

 

YT has saved me a fortune.  Bathroom fan failed?  YT video on how to replace.  Plumbing issue?  YT video.  Corroded pipe under house?  YT video.  Car problem?  YT video.  How to cook something I've never made before?  YT video.  It aint just for kids anymore.

Of course, how to get trained for warfare probably needs quite a bit of doing & practicing after watching said videos.  Whether manual or video, being sent to the front w/o training is dang close to a death sentence. 

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At the Russian school, where future officer studied - sen.lt. Andrey Grakov, who was killed in Ukraine, was hanged memorial plaque, where in cirсumstances of his death was confirmed the strike at S-400 on 5th Aug. Grakov was commander of radar crew (on plaque has written MLRS - looks like multi-functional and fire control radar 92N6E) - all were hit by fragments, he has died in hospital next day.  

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92N6E

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Edited by Haiduk
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15 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Rumors of mass shooting at Belgorod base - some chmobiks or stop-lossed contractors allegedly. Can someone who can read Russian telegram confirm or is it some fake/psyop?

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There are rumors that shooters were natives of Tajikistan, having Russian citizenship - many tajiks came to Russia, they have dirty job in Moscow and some other large Russian cities like unqualified workers on buildings and garbagers. But they could receive Russian citizenship. Russians mostly treat them with contempt, calling "churki", so likely the shooting is a consequence of ethnic conflict.  Reportedly there were three shooters - two were killed in skirmish, one escaped. Reportedly 22 KIA, 16 WIA, but uncondirmed yet.

Edited by Haiduk
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16 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Rumors of mass shooting at Belgorod base - some chmobiks or stop-lossed contractors allegedly. Can someone who can read Russian telegram confirm or is it some fake/psyop?

Sky News are reporting it Ukraine war: Eleven volunteer soldiers killed in Russian military firing range shooting, Kremlin ministry of defence says | World News | Sky News

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6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

No footage of losses so I take it this was not a failed attack but a probe, a raid or "preparing the battle field"  ext. 

In case of failed attack by Ukraine (even on company scale) we would see drone footage of Ukraine losses.

Strange silence from both sides. After active morning information boom, no any info all day after this. Footage usually come in next 1-2 days. On other hand some UKR twitters about hour ago posted RUMINT as if Mylove is our, but no any confirmation about this. Maybe really not successfull attempt of offensive, but w/o heavy losses, because most of Russian TG channels also didn't post any victorious reports, if not to count of collaborator Stremousov and a pair of crazy Z-telegrammers.

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Kids playing in the crater from Kh-101 missile in Shevchenko park in the center of Kyiv. Missile impacted in dozen meters from kids playground. Fortunately, during the strike no one was on the playground 

Voice beyond the cadre: "they wanted to intimidate us, but made another one attraction for kids" 

 

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4 hours ago, dan/california said:

One of the Russian's fundamental mistakes is mistaking toughness for effectiveness.

that is very definitely not just a fundamental mistake by the Russians. This thread (among many examples) has shown it to be a universal mistake.

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17 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Flood with weapons? What weapons?

I want this kind of job.  Just say toxic macho horsecrap and get paid for it.  I could do this all day and hardly take a breath, it's utterly brainless.  How does one get one of these lucrative yet totally cushy gigs?  I need to learn russian, then go on RU TV as USA insider giving the scoop on how to defeat evil US.  oh, wait, they'd pay me in rubles.  Nevermind.

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Apparently there is more speculation that Ukraine is using Neptune cruise missiles to strike ground targets.  Most recently the Belgorod power plant and possibly also oil refinery (or storage, not clear which):

One of the sources speculating on this a little over a year ago:

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/fact-check-does-ukraine-really-have-1000km-range-cruise-missile-191276

We've talked about this possibility in the past.  An unmodified Neptune couldn't effectively used against ground targets, but with the right guidance system it is possible.  Certainly the US military is in the process of adopting a universal missile platform (developed by the US Navy) so the theory, at least, is sound.

Thoughts?

Steve

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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

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There are rumors that shooters were natives of Tajikistan, having Russian citizenship - many tajiks came to Russia, they have dirty job in Moscow and some other large Russian cities like unqualified workers on buildings and garbagers. But they could receive Russian citizenship. Russians mostly treat them with contempt, calling "churki", so likely the shooting is a consequence of ethnic conflict.  Reportedly there were three shooters - two were killed in skirmish, one escaped. Reportedly 22 KIA, 16 WIA, but uncondirmed yet.

interesting considering the recent dressing down of Putin by the president of Tajikistan.

Putin Confronted by Frustrated Tajik President Demanding Respect: Video (msn.com)

 

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7 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Unknown top attack drone thing once again in action:

 

image.png.3e24b6537b298c2b87390b5f8dbc41e8.png

source: https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1581268787420364802

EDIT: wrong to call it a drone. Don't know what it is

EDIT2: just a bird 🕊️

This is pretty interesting.  It looks to be a fast moving fixed wing drone with a very short range rocket that is (probably) designed to fire at a fixed angle.  A targeting algorithm would be pretty easy to develop that could fairly accurately determine when to fire the missile based on current speed and altitude of the drone.  I've not heard of something like this being used in Ukraine yet, so if anybody can point me to a probable system (presuming it isn't evolving Ukrainian homegrown system) that would be helpful.

Steve

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7 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-will-keep-funding-ukraine-even-though-starlink-is-losing-money-2022-10-15/
Musk tweeted: "the hell with it … even though starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we'll just keep funding ukraine govt for free".

According to the SpaceX figures shared with the Pentagon, about 85% of the 20,000 terminals in Ukraine were paid – or partially paid – for by countries like the US and Poland or other entities. Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity, which SpaceX says costs $4,500 each month per unit for the most advanced service. (Over the weekend, Musk tweeted there are around 25,000 terminals in Ukraine.) — CNN, October/14/2022.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/#paragraph-4de74b4a-e6fa-5ddd-937e-d10fb1ae88bd

I don't think starlink is losing money because of what it is providing to Ukraine - that mostly seems to be paid for. I suspect its more that Starlink's business model is losing money, because satellites are expensive and they haven't got enough uptake to cover the initial costs incurred.

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Trouble in the ranks.
 

Quote

(Reuters) -Gunmen shot dead 11 people at a Russian military training ground on Saturday, the defence ministry said, in the latest blow to President Vladimir Putin's forces since the invasion of Ukraine.

RIA news agency cited the ministry as saying 15 other people were wounded in the shooting on Saturday in the southwestern Belgorod region that borders Ukraine when two men gunned down a group who had volunteered to take part in the war.

It said the two assailants - nationals from an unspecified former Soviet republic - had been shot dead.

https://news.yahoo.com/gunmen-kill-11-russian-military-213218841.html

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9 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

According to the SpaceX figures shared with the Pentagon, about 85% of the 20,000 terminals in Ukraine were paid – or partially paid – for by countries like the US and Poland or other entities. Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity, which SpaceX says costs $4,500 each month per unit for the most advanced service. (Over the weekend, Musk tweeted there are around 25,000 terminals in Ukraine.) — CNN, October/14/2022.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/#paragraph-4de74b4a-e6fa-5ddd-937e-d10fb1ae88bd

I don't think starlink is losing money because of what it is providing to Ukraine - that mostly seems to be paid for. I suspect its more that Starlink's business model is losing money, because satellites are expensive and they haven't got enough uptake to cover the initial costs incurred.

Musk has consistently failed to mention these figures -EIGHTY-FIVE PERCENT - that USA and others have been subsidizing “his” costs. As posted a few pages back. He is among the least trustworthy communicators but has a very loud voice. 

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