How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

As was discussed here, some net or ropes that a drone could drag to ensnare the propeller on the enemy are the logical improvement for the air-to-air role. But I'd love to see somebody mount a shotgun on one of these things

 

I thnk you'd want it to be something recoilless for most of them, but it would be cool to see what you can do.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

This is going to bite them in the arse later on when these kids remember or figure out what Russia did to them.  I hope the bite marks are plentiful and deep.

Russia has two goals with the kidnappings.  First one is to depopulate Ukraine.  The second one is to repopulate Russia with white citizens.  The birthrate amongst ethnic Russians has been abysmal for decades as has the outflow to other countries.  This is of HUGE concern for the ethno-national regime that controls the Kremlin now and likely will after Putin is long gone.  It's one reason they're shoveling non-ethnic Russians into the fight.

However, as with all things Putin this plan is already backfiring.  They've lost more people going abroad because of the war than they have gained by kidnapping children.  And as horrifying as what Russia is doing to Ukraine in this war, it's not going to negatively affect Ukraine's population as much as Russia's.

In other words, Russia is getting the exact opposite of what it wants from a demographics standpoint.  Putin is, as they say, the master strategist!

Steve

[sburke]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Yes, the “Russians suck” bandwagon has become about as much groupthink as “The Russians are giants” narratives were at the beginning of this thing.  The Russians are in bad shape and are experiencing multiple systemic failures at just about every level of warfare; however, that obstacle belt looks professionally sighted and constructed for purpose to me.  Now whether it will be part of a much larger effective defensive, is another question.

You make a very reasoned. well thought out and concisely written reply, but I think I'm gonna have to go with Russians suck.  

According to our Ukrainian friends the cold and rain is likely gonna hit in a few weeks.  

• The Russian horde is still in preparatory phase of learning to tie their boot laces (assuming they got boots)
• Russian logistics already suck, it isn't like they have spare excess capacity.  If they are suddenly going to transport tons of fortification materials, something else will be left sitting at the warehouse loading dock
• with the turn in the weather truck transport is going to be more difficult and more fuel intensive leading to even more strain on the logistical train

so here we go - 
fresh meat appearing at the front largely untrained with not much in the way of NCO leadership if any.
even fewer supplies than normal cause they have to truck in tons and tons of concrete
lack of attention to physical care cause there is no one to tell them to dry their socks etc.. if they have socks.

and all that fun before the UA gets to add to their misery.

[sburke]

Russian Troops in Donetsk Ordered to Stop Fighting Amid Desertion: Ukraine (msn.com)

[The_MonkeyKing]

40 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Ukraine is getting the Hawk anti-air system.

source:
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1eaKbrMPAQaKX
"Announcement by Spain that they will provide four Hawk launchers to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses"-Stoltenberg (2:09-2:17)

It is **** but not as **** as you might first think:
Spain has the HAWK Phase III, overhauled in the 80-90s and missiles are from the 90s. So surely comparable to likes of  BUK-M1 for example. Useful for static back lines protection like Kiev city center.
https://www.armyrecognition.com/united_states_american_missile_system_vehicle_uk/hawk_mim-23_low_medium_altitude_ground_to_air_missile_technical_data_sheet_specifications_pictures.html

Also seems Aspire is arriving:
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-military-being-trained-in-spain-to-operate-the-aspide-air-defense-system/
https://www.mbda-systems.com/product/aspide-2000/

and Crotale confirmed:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_october_2022_global_security_army_industry/france_announces_the_supply_to_ukraine_of_crotale_air_defense_missile_systems.html

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian Troops in Donetsk Ordered to Stop Fighting Amid Desertion: Ukraine (msn.com)

Yeah, this has been evident for weeks as the front north of Bakhmut has gone largely quiet and the intensity of fighting around Donetsk City has apparently dropped off significantly.  As we know, Bakhmut is largely a Wagner operation so that explains why it's still quite active while the rest is not.

Steve

[sburke]

'Everything has collapsed': Russia's draft tanks small businesses (msn.com)

[sburke]

okay this is weird.. what are the odds?  3 people died and he is one of them?

Quote

 

His wife, Albina Petrunina, is also prominent figure in Russian society, achieving the rank of ‘major’ in the police force and becoming the co-owner of MetaTrendCity company.

Petrunin’s death comes days after leading ‘incorruptible’ judge Sergey Maslov was killed in the Crimean Bridge blast last week.

 

 

Another Russian energy boss has mysteriously died in hospital (msn.com)

 

more on that dude

Quote

 

Three days after a huge explosion tore through a key bridge linking Russia to occupied Crimea in what the Kremlin deemed a Ukrainian “terrorist” attack against civilians, sources cited in Russian media say one of the victims was no ordinary civilian at all.

Sergei Maslov, a judge of the Moscow Arbitration Court, is said to have died in the blast along with three other people who were in the same vehicle with him: fitness instructor Gleb Orgetkin and Eduard Chuchakin and Zoya Sofronova, a married couple.

Work is reportedly still underway on identifying the victims, but a source in the emergency services cited by Russia’s TASS news agency was quoted saying that “available information” indicates Maslov was among those killed.

Maslov, appointed to the court by Putin back in May 2014, had reportedly overseen several high-profile cases involving the Moscow government and oil and gas companies.

Several independent Russian news outlets, including Taiga.info and VChK-OGPU, report that one of Maslov’s last cases involved none other than the eldest daughter of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. The Russian division of Condé Nast had reportedly filed suit against a fashion house headed by Chechen Culture Minister Aishat Kadyrova in August, though the publishing house unexpectedly dropped their complaint about two weeks later.

The press service of the arbitration court told the news outlet they had no “confirmed information” on Maslov’s death, but said they were looking into the matter.

Maslov was reportedly on vacation at the time he was killed; he is said to have owned property in Crimea. In the immediate aftermath of the blast, Russian investigators were quick to announce that three civilians had been killed, while news of the fourth death–that of Maslov–didn’t trickle out until Tuesday, fueling suspicions among some journalists that authorities were attempting to keep his passing under wraps.

VChK-OGPU noted that Maslov stood out from other judges in that he was impossible to bribe.

Russian officials and Kremlin propagandists alike had immediately pinned the bombing on Ukraine, which did not officially claim responsibility but seemed to celebrate the destruction of the bridge, widely seen as a symbol of Russia’s grip on the peninsula it stole from Ukraine in 2014. Russian investigators have said a truck packed with explosives caused the massive fireball on the $3.7 billion bridge, a claim that some experts have questioned in light of the extensive damage.

The bombing was used by Russia’s Vladimir Putin to justify a series of airstrikes across Ukraine on Monday that killed at least 19 civilians, though Ukrainian intelligence said Russian military units had received instructions to carry out the brutal missile attacks long before the Kerch Strait Bridge blew up.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov was among the Putin loyalists who cheered on the bombings, writing on Telegram that he was now finally “100% satisfied” with Russia’s handling of the war.

 

 

Sergei Maslov, Top Russian Judge Linked to Ramzan Kadyrov, Allegedly Killed in Crimea Bridge Explosion (thedailybeast.com)

Edited October 13, 2022 by sburke

[LongLeftFlank]

41 minutes ago, sburke said:

You make a very reasoned. well thought out and concisely written reply, but I think I'm gonna have to go with Russians suck.  

 

[keas66]

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, keas66 said:

 

well well well.  this is very interesting.  Let's say Kherson is a full blown RU disaster in a week or so, w only Kherson city holding on & tons of POWs and lost equipment.  We would be a yet another milestone where we'd ask just how much disaster can one man cause his country before something happens?  Mobilization is a disaster and make people angry w hundreds of thousands fleeing the country.  I guess this all gets into whether anyone can overthrow Putin, meaning somehow kill him or take over the reins of government.  

Of course, going back to Hitler one can say that there's a lot of disaster a dictator can take, though in his case he had a country that was facing being overrun and occupied.  Russians are in an interesting situation because their only actual problem is staying in the war, whereas for the germans they were damned either way -- though killing Hitler and surrendering early would've been much better outcome for both germany and the world.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Rarely in human history has someone been quite that happy about low pressure tires...

If he is very lucky he is just hurt enough to avoid deploying.

At least the ammo is actually blanks, crossing that up in a vodka haze would be truly spectacular

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is going to bite them in the arse later on when these kids remember or figure out what Russia did to them.  I hope the bite marks are plentiful and deep.

Russia has two goals with the kidnappings.  First one is to depopulate Ukraine.  The second one is to repopulate Russia with white citizens.  The birthrate amongst ethnic Russians has been abysmal for decades as has the outflow to other countries.  This is of HUGE concern for the ethno-national regime that controls the Kremlin now and likely will after Putin is long gone.  It's one reason they're shoveling non-ethnic Russians into the fight.

However, as with all things Putin this plan is already backfiring.  They've lost more people going abroad because of the war than they have gained by kidnapping children.  And as horrifying as what Russia is doing to Ukraine in this war, it's not going to negatively affect Ukraine's population as much as Russia's.

In other words, Russia is getting the exact opposite of what it wants from a demographics standpoint.  Putin is, as they say, the master strategist!

Steve

It's insanely clear the glue they have been exporting, they have been using themselves. The commissioner for kids, who stated that Ukrainian kids no longer recite the Ukrainian anthem after being in Russia just speaks volumes about Russian attitudes to Ukrainians. Also a lot less lying than usual from government sources, they don't see this action as inhumane at all, or a crime. Just speaks a lot for their treatment of Ukraine.

There is no question of letting Russia hold and cleanse territory of Ukraine taken in 2022. If Zelensky would be so inclined to do that, I doubt Ukrainian society wouldn't Maidan his *** for it instantly.

4 minutes ago, keas66 said:

 

If you want to see the puppet beg, here.

I cannot wait for Kherson to fall. The tears, the cries of Pro-Russians could probably power Europe thru the next two winters. Beyond any action like the seizure of the separatist capitals, and definitely more serious than the recapture of Severodonetsk, Kherson's fall will be the clearest signal, internationally and domestically that Russia is on the defensive, and in danger of losing this war.

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have to constantly remind myself that Russia doesn't always suck as bad as we would like them to.  Case in point is the fairly competent defense under stressful circumstances we see in Kherson.  It's been tougher for Ukraine to roll up the defenses than any of us would have liked to see, that's for sure.  Which means the "one swift kick" theory I and others had didn't really pan out.  As with Russia's covert mobilization, they have more tricks up their sleeve than would appear at first glance.

Having said that, what Russia is employing are tricks.  Tricks generally work only for the short term and very often come at the expense of long term goals.  Covert mobilization chewed through pretty much all of their manpower, including trainers and non-frontline specialists.  It consumed hardened criminals.  It used up the easiest to bribe citizenry.  Yet it did not solve their manpower shortages, it just prevented a systemic front wide collapse.  What it did do was give Ukraine the Kharkiv offensive.

I see these new defenses, if implemented on a larger scale, the same sort of thinking.  It's not going to work because there's bigger issues at play here other than "Russia sucks".  The one you mentioned many times is "Ukraine doesn't suck".  The other one is Russia's manpower shortage hasn't been fixed by the partial mobilization any more than with the covert mobilization.  Worse, in fact, because of how incompetently handled partial mobilization has been and the pool to draw from wasn't very good to start from.  It's ammo is running out and that's it's primary go-to way to operate.  The equipment it needs to fight is also approaching critical loss levels.  Specialized equipment and/or the people to use them competently is also on a steep decline.  Morale is in the crapper and unlikely to improve.  etc.

Therefore, examining things in detail doesn't give me any degree of confidence that Russia can pull off a meaningful static defense.

The best Russia can reasonably hope for is to slow down Ukraine's ability to retake its terrain in some places at some points in time.  But it can not stop Ukraine from bypassing or selecting more vulnerable targets to focus on, perhaps even on a different front.  All the while Russia's attrition problem continues to get worse while Ukraine's doesn't.

Steve

I like the overall picture painted in your post. Not every Russian is incompetent, but their system is incompetent. 

Fortunately evidence of some proper show of competence in certain instances doesn't mean they've repaired the overall corrupt nepotism drenched system. So while certain feats might surely make Ukraine's life much more difficult in a delimited area, it doesn't mean Russia all of a sudden 'gets it's act together' on the broad aspect of waging a war from the political to the tactical level.

Edited October 13, 2022 by Lethaface

[LongLeftFlank]

All your base.... 

For great justice! 

Vlasov Army, anyone? 

 

Edited October 13, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

well well well.  this is very interesting.  Let's say Kherson is a full blown RU disaster in a week or so, w only Kherson city holding on & tons of POWs and lost equipment.  We would be a yet another milestone where we'd ask just how much disaster can one man cause his country before something happens?  Mobilization is a disaster and make people angry w hundreds of thousands fleeing the country.  I guess this all gets into whether anyone can overthrow Putin, meaning somehow kill him or take over the reins of government.  

Of course, going back to Hitler one can say that there's a lot of disaster a dictator can take, though in his case he had a country that was facing being overrun and occupied.  Russians are in an interesting situation because their only actual problem is staying in the war, whereas for the germans they were damned either way -- though killing Hitler and surrendering early would've been much better outcome for both germany and the world.

The rats are in full abandon ship mode. I hope these two have a long cold swim, followed by involuntary induction into the Moskvas crew.

 

Edit: Outposted by Fancy Cat

 

Edited October 13, 2022 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The rats are in full abandon ship mode. I hope these two have a long cold swim, followed by involuntary induction into the Moskvas crew.

 

Edit: Outposted by Fancy Cat

 

 

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

This is absolutely fascinating.  Millions want to leave?  that's absurd!  But he is in full on panic mode.  Makes one wonder what the panic is looking like lower on the food chain.

[Lethaface]

18 hours ago, RandomCommenter said:

Hi guys, I want to share this article here because I thought it was interesting and because it made me re-question my assumptions on the whole conflict. Luckily for me having re-questioned my assumptions I ended up exactly where I started - i.e. screw Vlad and this war only ends when the last Russian soldier leaves Ukraine including Crimea. So i do not endorse what the author of the piece says, in fact I disagree with it. And in a certain sense there is nothing new here, it is a rehash of the John Mearsheimer and George Kennan positions which have been previously dismantled on this forum.

So why do I post this article here? Because it is a good antidote to groupthink. And I think we need to avoid falling in to groupthink, to occasionally sit back and question fundamental assumptions on the conflict. So in essence the argument here is the old imperialist canard of Ukraine is in Russia's back yard, Russia is big and scary and should have influence over neighboring countries' security policies. Which is bull (in fact was the argument used by the British to occupy Ireland for so long). Other people call it "realpolitik".

Anyway, I found the article useful to read something from a totally different perspective from the news and opinion I have been consuming this past months and maybe others here will do the same.

https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/complications-of-the-ukraine-war/?utm_campaign=imprimis&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=229431640&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_La5DaB1fPX9KQZ2Xa_odqOP2-GTOG4C5jTw48oNLb3LFrSSJAF2bp1IyvbsGqbzqV3ERXryCpTN6YbUkdmIZ0mxt_Ag&utm_content=229431640&utm_source=hs_email

I agree with you in that I think it would be a good piece for everyone here to read. Independent thinking is a great good. There's a lot of facts in it although the conclusions coming from those facts are sometimes quite narrowly interpreted. 

The major thing which I think the article interpretation of facts doesn't account for is that times change.

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is going to bite them in the arse later on when these kids remember or figure out what Russia did to them.  I hope the bite marks are plentiful and deep.

Russia has two goals with the kidnappings.  First one is to depopulate Ukraine.  The second one is to repopulate Russia with white citizens.  The birthrate amongst ethnic Russians has been abysmal for decades as has the outflow to other countries.  This is of HUGE concern for the ethno-national regime that controls the Kremlin now and likely will after Putin is long gone.  It's one reason they're shoveling non-ethnic Russians into the fight.

However, as with all things Putin this plan is already backfiring.  They've lost more people going abroad because of the war than they have gained by kidnapping children.  And as horrifying as what Russia is doing to Ukraine in this war, it's not going to negatively affect Ukraine's population as much as Russia's.

In other words, Russia is getting the exact opposite of what it wants from a demographics standpoint.  Putin is, as they say, the master strategist!

Steve

Steve. Biden speculates on Putin's "off ramp", but Putin doesn't have one, unless it means retreating back into the Russian borders of pr-2014, and trying to remain alive within the turmoil of defeat. He is a war criminal and villein. Biden also speculates that Putin is "sane" but made an insane decision to invade Ukraine. Wrong. Putin's constant life's ambition has been to recreate Mother Russia, and he is insane in this ambition. He is insane enough to die without success, at least he tried. By most western medics, the guy is insane and we should all be cognisant. The West has to cluster Russia back to its pre-2014 borders, and let them stew in their soup, with whatever they devise. The west has to hold the line on the Russian border, giving Ukraine all military and economic help. Such is the price of freedom. As for Belarus, Lukashenko is at the wrong point of history. One can anticipate a revolution from the opposed people there in short shift. In a sense Biden was right, Putin miscalculated on many fronts, none of which was correct. 

[Battlefront.com]

54 minutes ago, Grossman said:

Steve. Biden speculates on Putin's "off ramp", but Putin doesn't have one, unless it means retreating back into the Russian borders of pr-2014, and trying to remain alive within the turmoil of defeat. He is a war criminal and villein. Biden also speculates that Putin is "sane" but made an insane decision to invade Ukraine. Wrong. Putin's constant life's ambition has been to recreate Mother Russia, and he is insane in this ambition. He is insane enough to die without success, at least he tried. By most western medics, the guy is insane and we should all be cognisant. The West has to cluster Russia back to its pre-2014 borders, and let them stew in their soup, with whatever they devise. The west has to hold the line on the Russian border, giving Ukraine all military and economic help. Such is the price of freedom. As for Belarus, Lukashenko is at the wrong point of history. One can anticipate a revolution from the opposed people there in short shift. In a sense Biden was right, Putin miscalculated on many fronts, none of which was correct. 

Yeah, many people don't see much chance of an off ramp.  I've personally not seen one possible since just before the Kyiv withdrawal.  After that?  Russia's hand was too weak for Putin to get anything, even a reduced subset of things, he was after.  And I'm talking about the real things he was after, not the mix bag of BS that he's put out to the public.

However, this doesn't mean Putin is insane.  Unrealistic?  Desperate?  Foolish?  Sure, but insanity is trickier to assess.  We'd have to see what he's saying in private to know for sure.  There's a big difference between him hearing bad news and saying "OK, how can we fix it?  Only dumb options available?  OK, try them all and see if any work" and instead saying "but I'm the master strategist!  Nothing you say is true!  The only problems here are your loyalty to me and to Russia, so sort yourselves out and give me what I want by next week!".  The former is sane, the latter is insane. 

The real world results between a sane and an insane Putin might appear similar to us, but if Putin is insane then things could become more "interesting", such as a coup or a nuke.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

Not sure what is the goal here. Maximum threat on the northern front while stealing all the equipment for RUS military?

Or Putin wants Belarus to go down with him

[womble]

I think if Putin were actually frothing insane, he'd have been deposed by now. He's effectively a crime lord, and loyalty to him, personally, isn't going to drive enough (there's probably a couple of Luca Brasi-types who think they owe him everything) people to follow him and remain loyal to the extent that a Hitleresque cult-of-personality/ideology does. Putin's supporters, even the ideologues are realistic/pragmatic, no-nonsense types (they must be, given their origins), and they won't stand for such histrionics.

No, he's still got most of his marbles in the tin, and is playing competing power blocs off against each other in order to retain his seat at the head of that lonnnnnng table.

[cesmonkey]

That Belgorod fire apparently:

https://ria.ru/20221013/sklad-1823859281.html

MOSCOW, October 13 - RIA Novosti. The shelling from the Ukrainian side led to the explosion of an ammunition depot in the Belgorod region, the regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on his Telegram channel.
According to preliminary data, no one was injured in the incident.
Gladkov also added that local residents will be taken to a safe distance. Operational services and the head of the district, Vladimir Pertsev, arrived at the scene, the governor said.

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is going to bite them in the arse later on when these kids remember or figure out what Russia did to them.  I hope the bite marks are plentiful and deep.

Russia has two goals with the kidnappings.  First one is to depopulate Ukraine.  The second one is to repopulate Russia with white citizens.  The birthrate amongst ethnic Russians has been abysmal for decades as has the outflow to other countries.  This is of HUGE concern for the ethno-national regime that controls the Kremlin now and likely will after Putin is long gone.  It's one reason they're shoveling non-ethnic Russians into the fight.

However, as with all things Putin this plan is already backfiring.  They've lost more people going abroad because of the war than they have gained by kidnapping children.  And as horrifying as what Russia is doing to Ukraine in this war, it's not going to negatively affect Ukraine's population as much as Russia's.

In other words, Russia is getting the exact opposite of what it wants from a demographics standpoint.  Putin is, as they say, the master strategist!

Steve

I look forward to hearing their testimony at what will be the new Nuremberg Trials for the 21st Century.