How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

Given Elon Musk's record of being less than honest, and of relying for his defence in court on the idea that people shouldn't believe what he says, I don't think he should get the benefit of the doubt on anything.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

Yes, objective and informed analysis should be our watchwords.... I agree.   If that is an anti-tank ditch and the forward infantry / vehicle dig ins are supposed to be in that tree line, the damn ditch is too damn close to the defensive works.

You are assuming that the Ukrainians will be advancing from the left in that photo - why do you assume that? How does it change your assessment if you assume the Ukrainians will be advancing from the right, ie advancing through the trees then, hello, an obstacle, with a massive kill zone beyond it, and here we are bunched up in the trees which feel safe but are likely seeded with loads of TRPs.

[JonS]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Storm in a teacup

Unfortunately, musk fanbois are a particularly virulent lot, so we'll likely be hearing soon - and for a long time to come - what a thoroughly disreputable character Bremmer is, probably including accusations of pedophilia and other bull****. Also, musk has a bit of money, and a tendency to spend it in dumb but self-serving ways whenever he feels slighted.

[billbindc]

17 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

A update to the Elon Musk stuff.

 

 

I am a fan of neither one of these chaps but it's pretty clear which way this goes. Bremmer is a bad analyst (IMHO) but there's never been a whiff of controversy about his reporting and he's done it a long time. He is also quite aware what a big story it is to break that Musk told him he spoke to Putin. It's *very* unlikely Bremmer is lying

But.

It's also very unlikely that Putin talked to Musk and laid out his redlines for the use of nuclear weapons. That would be an incredibly stupid thing to do and there's no sign yet that Russia has any desire to end the ambiguity on that topic that serves it so well. 

The reality is almost certainly that Musk spoke to some sort of interlocuter (given how precise his 'solution' to the war was) but then exaggerated who he spoke to and how definitive the conversation was. It would be just like him. This is, after all, the guy who's been calling his cars "self driving" when he's nowhere close to the reality of it. 

[billbindc]

18 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Storm in a teacup. 

I wish it were but that's not how American politics works these days. Musk is acting as a useful idiot in this case and amplifying a slowly increasing panic about the possibility of a nuclear war in order to force a ceasefire on Ukraine. It's out there on Tucker, Tulsi Gabbard, Tracey, Greenwald, Chomsky, Fox News, etc. You could easily call it a hostile propaganda campaign (nb: you should).

[Seedorf81]

Something else..

There's still a lot of units, on Rus and Ukr side, with the AIR or AIRMOBILE designation, but can it be said that this war indicates that dropping troops by air is outdated?

 

[Sorry if I offend any (ex-)para's .]

 

[poesel]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

How much of the pro Russian faction is of Russian descent, more or less? I have vague recollection that a fair number of Volga Germans came back to Germany after WW2, and their loyalties uhm complicated?

I don't think this plays any role. Never heard of it.

Also, our Nazis like the Russians in Russia, not those at home...

41 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Motivation
H2H
Ukraine = Fanatic
Russia = Poor

Fanatics follow orders 100%. But sometimes it is better to run away from certain situations and disobey the orders. You lose that crucial piece of self initiative with fanatic troops, and thus I never buy them (except as subjects for weapons tests ).

[sburke]

North Korean construction workers in Russia escape after learning they are being sent to Ukraine (msn.com)

[paxromana]

5 hours ago, keas66 said:

I can't even imagine the arrogance of the guy  - that he thinks he can just directly talk with Putin and actually achieve anything ? Mind Boggling .

 

There's actually a long tradition of 'Letters to thge Czar' in Russia ... there was a boiok published about it some years ago which caught my attention. People's letters to Stalin about all sorts of mundane things ... and it has continued into Putlerist Russia as well.

There was, for example, an incident maybe 15-20 years ago which was reported widely in the west of a female student in some High School in the sticks who wrote asking for a videographer to come record their graduation ... evidently this would normally result in trhe regional authorities sending such.

However, she failed to inlcude the proper honorifics to Herr Putler and the authorities came down on the school, teachers and authorities like ... the KGB ... cancelled her position in a prestigious University and sent her to a third rate hick College and more.

Its not that every such letter gets any attention, but a significant number evidently did/do.

[cesmonkey]

So this is what Elon Musk is in legal jeopardy for?
 

Quote

Any citizen of the United States, wherever he may be, who, without authority of the United States, directly or indirectly commences or carries on any correspondence or intercourse with any foreign government or any officer or agent thereof, with intent to influence the measures or conduct of any foreign government or of any officer or agent thereof, in relation to any disputes or controversies with the United States, or to defeat the measures of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/953

[Beleg85]

33 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I wish it were but that's not how American politics works these days. Musk is acting as a useful idiot in this case and amplifying a slowly increasing panic about the possibility of a nuclear war in order to force a ceasefire on Ukraine. It's out there on Tucker, Tulsi Gabbard, Tracey, Greenwald, Chomsky, Fox News, etc. You could easily call it a hostile propaganda campaign (nb: you should).

Influential Narcissists/People on Mission were always childishly easy to be played out by KGB/GRU mindtricks. Tradition goes well from 30's. It is troubling that it is not even winter, Ukrainians have large successess but urge for peace is already visible in some Western circles. It is possible this whole celebrity ****show will harden Putin's resolve even more, and thus prolong the war.

36 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I am a fan of neither one of these chaps but it's pretty clear which way this goes. Bremmer is a bad analyst (IMHO) but there's never been a whiff of controversy about his reporting and he's done it a long time. He is also quite aware what a big story it is to break that Musk told him he spoke to Putin. It's *very* unlikely Bremmer is lying

But.

It's also very unlikely that Putin talked to Musk and laid out his redlines for the use of nuclear weapons. That would be an incredibly stupid thing to do and there's no sign yet that Russia has any desire to end the ambiguity on that topic that serves it so well. 

The reality is almost certainly that Musk spoke to some sort of interlocuter (given how precise his 'solution' to the war was) but then exaggerated who he spoke to and how definitive the conversation was. It would be just like him. This is, after all, the guy who's been calling his cars "self driving" when he's nowhere close to the reality of it. 

Out of likes, but +1. Bremmer probably knew Vice will publish it, so I doubt he would spill the beans just like that. Thus perhaps US wanted to put little Elon back in line; I hope it will not end here and Musk's undeservingly high influence on global politics will dwindle somewhat.

 

With all these issues, we forgot the front. There are some gossips that Russians started to counterattack or at least making some sensible decisions around Kreminna and Svatove. Do you guys have some valid info perhaps?

Edited October 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[Letter from Prague]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Influential Narcissists/People on Mission were always childishly easy to be played out by KGB/GRU mindtricks. Tradition goes well from 30's. It is troubling that it is not even winter, Ukrainians have large successess but urge for peace is already visible in some Western circles. It is possible this whole celebrity ****show will harden Putin's resolve even more, and thus prolong the war.

Out of likes, but +1. Bremmer probably knew Vice will publish it, so I doubt he would spill the beans just like that. Thus perhaps US wanted to put little Elon back in line; I hope it will not end here and Musk's undeservingly high influence on global politics will dwindle somewhat.

I think that makes sense - Musk is exactly the kind of selfimportant idiot to whom someone from Russia says "Putin told me to tell you X" and he's gonna make it "wow I'm so important Putin sent me a personal message" and then claims "Putin told me X".

Now SpaceX is a defense contractor is it not? So if Musk actually talks to president or some other representative of hostile country, he would put his company in quite a bit of trouble.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think that makes sense - Musk is exactly the kind of selfimportant idiot to whom someone from Russia says "Putin told me to tell you X" and he's gonna make it "wow I'm so important Putin sent me a personal message" and then claims "Putin told me X".

Now SpaceX is a defense contractor is it not? So if Musk actually talks to president or some other representative of hostile country, he would put his company in quite a bit of trouble.

and best of all, this self-important *** talks w a serial mass murderer, kidnapper of children, and destroyer of cities and then tells us all that we should do what the war criminal wants because if not the war criminal might do more war crimes.

[Artkin]

49 minutes ago, poesel said:

Fanatics follow orders 100%. But sometimes it is better to run away from certain situations and disobey the orders. You lose that crucial piece of self initiative with fanatic troops, and thus I never buy them (except as subjects for weapons tests ).

Exactly, that is why I prefer "Extreme" at the most.

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

With all these issues, we forgot the front. There are some gossips that Russians started to counterattack or at least making some sensible decisions around Kreminna and Svatove. Do you guys have some valid info perhaps?

This is as close as I have seen to news about military developments. When I say military, I am excluding terror bombings and other atrocities, there is an unpleasant excess of those.

 

[Ultradave]

30 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think that makes sense - Musk is exactly the kind of selfimportant idiot to whom someone from Russia says "Putin told me to tell you X" and he's gonna make it "wow I'm so important Putin sent me a personal message" and then claims "Putin told me X".

Now SpaceX is a defense contractor is it not? So if Musk actually talks to president or some other representative of hostile country, he would put his company in quite a bit of trouble.

If he has a security clearance due to defense work, he is bound by security rules to report the foreign contact and the contents of the discussion. I have no idea if he does have one - might not be necessary for him - launch this package, it's X" x Y" and weighs Z kilos. Doesn't need to know anything about it's function I wouldn't think.

Dave

 

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

This is as close as I have seen to news about military developments. When I say military, I am excluding terror bombings and other atrocities, there is an unpleasant excess of those

I ask because there are some longish discussions in PL if Ukrainian offensive in the north is close to culmination or just take a break (the latter thesis have much more supporters). Ukrainians are reportedly finding direction North of Svatovo more promising and concentrating more troops there, but Russians do seem to finally start to put some defense plan and even counterattacking in several places (reportedly Dibrova/Terny direction). Of course we should hope it will not be enough.

4 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

If he has a security clearance due to defense work, he is bound by security rules to report the foreign contact and the contents of the discussion. I have no idea if he does have one - might not be necessary for him - launch this package, it's X" x Y" and weighs Z kilos. Doesn't need to know anything about it's function I wouldn't think.

Dave

It is entirely possible he was "speaking" to Putin in his mind and the rest is simply follow-up of his bombastic ego. Normally it wouldn't matter, but one can already feel in conversations with some Musk fans (and they are influential group) change of tone regarding war. Troubling phenomenon.

[Letter from Prague]

Elon Musk blocks Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea over concern that Putin could use nuclear weapons: report

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-blocks-starlink-in-crimea-amid-nuclear-fears-report-2022-10

Well then.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I ask because there are some longish discussions in PL if Ukrainian offensive in the north is close to culmination or just take a break (the latter thesis have much more supporters). Ukrainians are reportedly finding direction North of Svatovo more promising and concentrating more troops there, but Russians do seem to finally start to put some defense plan and even counterattacking in several places (reportedly Dibrova/Terny direction). Of course we should hope it will not be enough.

For quite a while most of the more up to date news about front line developments was coming from Russian sources. They seem to have all gone quiet, like told to shut up gone quiet. Up to date front line updates from the The Ukr side have been thin for a while. Just may be a phase where boths sides are being less talkative. Anybody have a a recents firms map? Those have been the closest thing to ground truth for the whole war, albeit far from infallible.

Apparently a wet day in Eastern Ukraine, the mud always gets a vote.

[akd]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Anybody have a a recents firms map? Those have been the closest thing to ground truth for the whole war, albeit far from infallible.

Way more cloud cover and rain recently, so not particularly useful.

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

but we need a washing machine flavor item for sure

Collecting them as part of Russian victory conditions.

[chrisl]

40 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

If he has a security clearance due to defense work, he is bound by security rules to report the foreign contact and the contents of the discussion. I have no idea if he does have one - might not be necessary for him - launch this package, it's X" x Y" and weighs Z kilos. Doesn't need to know anything about it's function I wouldn't think.

Dave

 

He doesn’t even need to know that much about payloads- that’s all handled by a bunch of mid-level engineers.  If he’s doing anything it’s selling N launches per year to the government at Y price/vehicle, plus special services.  And even that sort of thing is most likely negotiated by people with much more detailed cost and delivery schedule knowledge.  He doesn’t even need to know the initials of the agency paying for the launch, though someone at VP level will.

[danfrodo]

38 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Elon Musk blocks Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea over concern that Putin could use nuclear weapons: report

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-blocks-starlink-in-crimea-amid-nuclear-fears-report-2022-10

Well then.

what a pants-wetting piece of s--t

Edited October 12, 2022 by danfrodo

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

what a pants-wetting piece of s--t

he just permanently damaged his reputation.  The US gov't should reconsider contracting any business to him.

[LongLeftFlank]

31 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

what a pants-wetting piece of s--t

"Best free advertising I ever got!"

Edited October 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank