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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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Another good summary of the situation, though sounds like UKR will make these maps obsolete in a few hours.  If you watch the video in the Kherson-area liberated town and start to cry, then good for you (babushkas hugging soldiers, again, but always a joy to see)

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/5/2127093/-Ukraine-update-Ukraine-advances-on-Berislav-in-the-south-and-Svatove-in-the-north

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5 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

There's some irony in "LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK" when its the con sites that are pushing the Kremlin propaganda.

I think we are long past the moment, when Soviet U...Russian Federation used leftist movements as it's hybrid weapon. Nationalists are now top of the top in UIs. But Russia is of course just opportunistic so the more UIs it finds in some group the better it will use them.

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7 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

There's some irony in "LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK" when its the con sites that are pushing the Kremlin propaganda.

I still remember "Daily Kos" from the early 2000s, when it was one of the biggest Anti-Bush & Anti-War sites. Now they're doing detailed frontline reports on the counteroffensives against the Russians. 

What fascinating times we live in. 

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1 minute ago, Tenses said:

I think we are long past the moment, when Soviet U...Russian Federation used leftist movements as it's hybrid weapon. Nationalists are now top of the top in UIs. But Russia is of course just opportunistic so the more UIs it finds in some group the better it will use them.

You sir,  need to familiarize yourself with the term "tankie"! RU notoriously uses both fringes of the political spectrum to push it's agenda, or just to sow chaos and disorder.

Edited by Huba
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8 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I still remember "Daily Kos" from the early 2000s, when it was one of the biggest Anti-Bush & Anti-War sites. Now they're doing detailed frontline reports on the counteroffensives against the Russians. 

What fascinating times we live in. 

Doesn't that just kinda mean they might be right? Considering the Iraq war was probably a mistake and in hindsight completely based on lies.

Edited by Ts4EVER
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Just now, Der Zeitgeist said:

I still remember "Daily Kos" from the early 2000s, when it was one of the biggest Anti-Bush & Anti-War sites. Now they're doing detailed frontline reports on the counteroffensives against the Russians. 

What fascinating times we live in. 

Yeah, well, they were anti-Iraq war because it was built on lies.  Cheney et al conflated 9-11 w saddam hussein and then told KNOWN lies about WMD.  So they were right, as much as I wanted Saddam dead like most folks.  I was ~70-80% against the Iraq invasion; it was built on lies and exploited american anger and grief to try to realize neo-con wet dream fantasies.  (sounds crazy but I kinda feel bad for Bush -- he was a trusting guy who trusted rotten bastards, and he realized that by ~2006 by which time he wouldn't give cheney the time of day.  T think Bush would've been happier to just live his trust fund baby life w occasional nice cushy jobs watching baseball and other sports -- actually this sounds kinda good to me right now 🙂)

I supported US going into Afghanistan, though I thought we should have gotten out earlier -- TheCapt & CombatInfMan might correct my thinking on this.

There is no contradiction between opposing a wrong war and supporting a right one.  Markos (head of Kos) is a veteran and his army son just entered ranger school.  Contrary to popular belief, not all military folks are MAGA.

And yes, I always put the disclaimer, because I think that is a courteous thing to do and helps to not distract the forum.  

So let's get back on track!

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30 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Comedy break - after experiencing success with public pressure coordinated through uncensored Telegram anti-liberal RU started to turn to Western Democracy:

The author mixed up factions a bit - Klimov is not from Guardians, he is from Girkinites. 

I mean as funny as that is - they do need somebody to play the role of russian "opposition" at home for the, now politically orphaned, target audience, since the previous domestic "opposition" is now promoted to storming bars abroad that are occupied by Nazis, who are exterminating the basic right of "liberal" russians to drink themselves into unconsciousness, while screaming about their (remote) love for Mother Russia and ever present russophobia.

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58 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, a box looks like a box.

So is it still a box when it's empty? Does the box, the thing have purpose? Or are we... what's the word...

You said, in effect, that the credibility of Russian soldiers / agents filling a box with dental appliances (gold) was low because they wouldn't have left them behind but would have stuffed them into pockets etc.  

I showed a picture of boxes of dental appliances (gold) from WWII to indicate, that if it happened before it could happen again.  Which it apparently has, but time and international investigation will confirm.

The box isn't relevant - it's the contents and the usage of the box that makes the comparison work and suggests that Russian soldiers / agents ripping gold from people's mouths is on the plus side of likelihood.

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2 hours ago, Combatintman said:

To bring this back on topic - guess which country beginning with 'R' and ending with 'ussian Federation' has been buying up container loads of medical equipment, body armour, helmets and other assorted military paraphernalia from local suppliers in Kabul this month?

Would that be paraphernalia locally manufactured (which would be surprising), or is it left-behind stuff from the Biden evacuation?

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That's it, the Russians have finaly deployed their Wunderwaffen, we're going to die... of laughing... 🤦‍♂️

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov promoted to general by Putin

Quote

 

The relationship between Ramzan Kadyrov and Vladimir Putin is in good shape. In a message posted on Telegram , the leader of the Russian Republic of Chechnya announces that he has received a promotion: “The Russian President has awarded me the rank of Colonel-General. The decree was published (…) , Vladimir Vladimirovitch informed me personally and congratulated me” , writes Mr. Kadyrov, who says he is “tremendously grateful” for “the high appreciation of [his] merits” .

The rank of colonel-general is the third highest command rank in the Russian military hierarchy, behind those of army general and field marshal. The Chechen leader was already three times a general before this promotion: of the military forces of the interior, of the police and of the national guard of Chechnya.

Mr. Kadyrov has been very active since the beginning of the Russian offensive in Ukraine. Chechen units, including Mr. Kadyrov's notorious personal militia, the "Kadyrovtsy", fight alongside Russian regular forces. On Monday, he announced his intention to send three of his teenage sons to fight, while calling for the use of "low-power nuclear weapons" to deal with the difficulties of Russian troops.

He also criticized another Russian colonel-general, Alexandre Lapin, in charge of operations around Lyman, a locality recently taken over by Ukrainian forces, judging that he had not provided the "communications" and the "necessary ammunition" . to the soldiers engaged in the defense of this city. The Kremlin on Monday praised Mr. Kadyrov's "heroic contribution" to the offensive in Ukraine.

 


Source Le Monde

This is exactly what the Russians need to restore the situation... Or not... 🤭

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2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Yes but tbh nowadays that is a set phrase that is often repeated on the the diplomatic floor or in speeches on Sunday but it rarely translates into action, much less money.

IMHO there is also a difference between guilt and responsibility. I can't accept guilt for something that my grandparents did. I see responsibility to remember and make sure such a thing didn't happen again.

Though, frankly, while this topic is discussed in more educated circles, the average German today doesn't care about guilt or responsibility, I think.

 

 

Yeah I meant historically.
I also think nobody should feel guilty for stuff they weren't involved in. I also don't see the merit in Germany having to excuse itself for it's past in every conversation. The verdict was clear, the case has been closed. 

 

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Les soldats du batailon Dnipro-1 en bateau sur la rivière Donets. Le territoire est désormais libéré des Russes. Oblast de Donetsk, le 4 octobre 2022.
"The soldiers of the Dnipro-1 battalion in a boat on the Donets river. The territory is now liberated from the Russians. Donetsk Oblast, October 4, 2022. ADRIEN VAUTIER/LE PICTORIUM FOR “LE MONDE”"

Trois soldats du bataillon Dnipro-1 débarquent sur la plage d'un sanatorium à quelques kilomètres de Lyman. Le pont reliant Sloviansk à la ville récemment libérée n'étant pas réparé, les Ukrainiens doivent traverserle cours d’eau en bateau. Oblast de Donetsk, le 4 octobre 2022.
"Three soldiers from the Dnipro-1 battalion land on the beach of a sanatorium a few kilometers from Lyman. As the bridge connecting Sloviansk to the recently liberated city was not repaired, the Ukrainians had to cross the river by boat. Donetsk Oblast, October 4, 2022. ADRIEN VAUTIER/LE PICTORIUM FOR “LE MONDE”"

Les soldats du bataillon Dnipro-1 participèrent à la prise de Lyman quelques jours plus tôt. Le bataillon est une unité paramilitaire spéciale formée de volontaires ukrainiens. Oblast de Donetsk, le 4 octobre 2022.
"Soldiers of the Dnipro-1 battalion took part in the capture of Lyman a few days earlier. The battalion is a special paramilitary unit formed from Ukrainian volunteers. Donetsk Oblast, October 4, 2022. ADRIEN VAUTIER/LE PICTORIUM FOR “LE MONDE”"

Pont, détruit, qui servait à relier les rives de la Donets avant l'invasion russe. Oblast de Donetsk, le 4 octobre 2022.
"Bridge, destroyed, which served to connect the banks of the Donets before the Russian invasion. Donetsk Oblast, October 4, 2022. ADRIEN VAUTIER/LE PICTORIUM FOR “LE MONDE”"

Un soldat du bataillon Dnipro-1 patiente au bord de la rivière Siversky Donets, obstacle naturel entre les soldats ukrainiens et russes durant la bataille de Lyman. Oblast de Donetsk, le 4 octobre 2022.
"A soldier from the Dnipro-1 Battalion waits on the banks of the Siversky Donets River, a natural obstacle between Ukrainian and Russian soldiers during the Battle of Lyman. Donetsk Oblast, October 4, 2022. ADRIEN VAUTIER/LE PICTORIUM FOR “LE MONDE”"

*Journalist has stuck in 2014, when Dnipro-1 really was volunteer unit. Now this is regular special purpose regiment of National Police in Dnipropetrovsk oblast (update from Haiduk)

Edited by Taranis
add update from Haiduk, thanks !
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2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

There are official narrations and unofficial ones. In first it is true German gov. takes full responsbility (it cannot be otherwise, as they they are bounded by law). It is also fair to say German society as a whole did very good job at recognizing and internalizing their historical faults, which is very difficult thing to implement in reality.

Unfortunatelly, in reality we often encounter parallel narrations, when German common social conciousness do everything to push away responsibility by victim blaming, selective historical readings or focusing on own suffering.  There is still plenty of that in common communications; one just need to remember public figures like Erica Steinbach or former chancellor Schroeder. Add traditional Prussian (not German) language of disregard for Eastern neighours considered inferior  and "stateless" (not only against Poles, but also Czechs, Balts, Russians, Ukrainians etc.- it's surprising how this superiority complex simply don't want to die in practice, even after so many years), urge of DE oligarchic elites to make business with Russia at any cost, visible elements of economical colonialism in CEE, and -on CEE side- slow deconstruction of liberal democracy and rise of populism in many states.

In the effect we have a problem with common relations that goes well beyond differences re Russia. But perhaps we shouldn't talk about this issue too much here again, as it is deeply polarizing and may distract us from observing war.

I don't really see the relation between the stuff you mentioned and 'the war' (WW2 in this context). There's fools/morons on all spectra and in all countries, that's true unfortunately, but I feel wise people should move on and look to the now (and recent past) and the future for perspective instead of clinging on to old sores. So probably we agree, but viewed from a different perspective ;-).

And indeed let's move on here as well :)

 

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

 

 

Let's focus on new geopolitical devlopments...like sudden rise of Czech Navy.;)

 

 

 

I specially liked the Pilsner-1 launch :D

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3 hours ago, Combatintman said:

To bring this back on topic - guess which country beginning with 'R' and ending with 'ussian Federation' has been buying up container loads of medical equipment, body armour, helmets and other assorted military paraphernalia from local suppliers in Kabul this month?

Russians in NATO gear bought from Afghanistan on the battlefield of Ukraine? That could make for some interesting pictures lol.

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11 minutes ago, Taranis said:

That's it, the Russians have finaly deployed their Wunderwaffen, we're going to die... of laughing... 🤦‍♂️

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov promoted to general by Putin


Source Le Monde

This is exactly what the Russians need to restore the situation... Or not... 🤭

Meanwhile poor Lukasenko can't even be a colonel. What a sad world.

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RU confirms that they do not really have defense in depth in Kherson:

Quote

The situation was extremely complicated by the fact that there was no echeloned defence in the Mykolaiv-Krivoy Rog direction. In fact, [on frontline] there are trenches, dug - in vehicles and artillery, minefields and other engineering structures, but behind them there is a void for tens of kilometers (with the exception of some sections), the second defensive line is already at the Dnieper, which is why the enemy occupation of 1/3 of controlled by us right bank has happened at such a pace.

 

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2 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Whoa....

 

I think we discussed it - UKR security services are severely compromised by RU. I mean that woman easily crossed RU border twice. So, there are two options here - UKR penetrated RU security services so deeply that they literally control RU Border guard. Or we are back to RU False Flag operation.

Keep in mind that Dugin is nobody and his daughter is less than nobody. Exposing assassination capabilities in heart of RU regime to kill nobody is dumb. And UKR are far from being dumb.

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5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I think we discussed it - UKR security services are severely compromised by RU. I mean that woman easily crossed RU border twice. So, there are two options here - UKR penetrated RU security services so deeply that they literally control RU Border guard. Or we are back to RU False Flag operation.

Keep in mind that Dugin is nobody and his daughter is less than nobody. Exposing assassination capabilities in heart of RU regime to kill nobody is dumb. And UKR are far from being dumb.

Hopefully NYTimes is getting bad info.  I think this is a stupid think for UKR to have done

 

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The only way I could see Ukraine killing Dugina would be as a warning against Russia attempting to kill any Ukrainian officials. In that sense, killing someone not important or someone less important like Dugina's father would make sense. Otherwise, there isn't any reason for Ukraine to kill her. Certainly no reason to lose whatever assets exist in Russia to do so for such a worthless target.

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Taranis said:

"Soldiers of the Dnipro-1 battalion took part in the capture of Lyman a few days earlier. The battalion is a special paramilitary unit formed from Ukrainian volunteers.

Journalist has stuck in 2014, when Dnipro-1 really was volunteer unit. Now this is regular special purpose regiment of National Police in Dnipropetrovsk oblast

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