How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

A comrade breaks a conscript's hand with a sledgehammer

 

The variety of methods used by Russians to evade service is amazing

[Lethaface]

17 hours ago, pavel.k said:

This and even much worse cases are happening every day for over 7 months. One group is doing this and the other much stronger group is not preventing it. Does humanity deserve to exist?

Well if humanity deserved to exist before this I'd say we still do. As, unfortunately, we've been there before. 

[keas66]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/30/alexei-navalny-parliamentary-republic-russia-ukraine/

[FancyCat]

Something to keep in mind, in terms of signaling to Russia that nuking Ukraine will bring a automatic escalatory response by the West, actions like this will be more important than words. (When managing escalation, clear translation and forewarning is needed)

A simple "Russia will be punished" statement from Biden will not suffice. At least in my opinion.

[pavel.k]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Well if humanity deserved to exist before this I'd say we still do. As, unfortunately, we've been there before. 

Thank you for the assurance. I am slowly recovering from my yesterday breakdown.

[Huba]

Just now, FancyCat said:

Something to keep in mind, in terms of signaling to Russia that nuking Ukraine will bring a automatic escalatory response by the West, actions like this will be more important than words. (When managing escalation, clear translation and forewarning is needed)

A simple "Russia will be punished" statement from Biden will not suffice. At least in my opinion.

IIRC  Sullivan stated in one of the press conferences that RU was informed of the consequences through a private communication channels. IMO it is as clear a message as it can get, without laying out the options publicly.

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Thank you for the assurance. I am slowly recovering from my yesterday breakdown.

My pleasure!

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Thank you for the assurance. I am slowly recovering from my yesterday breakdown.

you did notice he said "if".  He didn't actually make an unqualified yes.  

[DerKommissar]

1 hour ago, CAZmaj said:

Canadian nationalism? And what is that?

Just like RU nats venerate Putin, CA nats venerate Poutine.

[sburke]

Russian-Installed Official Killed in Pinpoint HIMARS Strike by Ukraine (msn.com)

 

Alexei Katerinichev, who served as the first deputy head for security of the Kremlin-appointed administration of the Kherson region, was killed on Friday, Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the Moscow-controlled region, said.

[Alexei] Katerinichev died as a result of a pinpoint strike from HIMARS. Two rockets hit the house in which he was," Stremousov was cited by Russia's state-run news agency Tass as saying.

Edited September 30, 2022 by sburke

[Kinophile]

  

34 minutes ago, Grigb said:

IMPENETRABLE CRETINISM AND UNPROFESSIONALISM OF THE COMMAND

Ahah official Russian doctrine raises its head once more.

[kraze]

18 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

A comrade breaks a conscript's hand with a sledgehammer

 

The variety of methods used by Russians to evade service is amazing

It's of course better to break your own hand than the remaining one OMOH still possesses after a round in Ukraine.

[Grigb]

27 minutes ago, akd said:

503rd MRR was previously reported in key position facing Huliaipole, but I don’t know how recently.  Regardless, 58th CAA is clearly responsible for this area and this is a key component of its strength.

You are right, 503 at least until 21-Sept was at Zaporozhye. They are pulling reserves from the South.  

[G.I. Joe]

7 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

Just like RU nats venerate Putin, CA nats venerate Poutine.

And of course, Putin is transliterated Poutine in French...

I remember a news story right after the invasion about a restaurant chain in France called House of Poutine getting flooded with angry calls as a result of the confusion.

[DerKommissar]

27 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

A comrade breaks a conscript's hand with a sledgehammer

 

The variety of methods used by Russians to evade service is amazing

Johnny Knoxville must be taking notes for Jackass 5. Looks like Steve-O has some competition.

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

Johnny Knoxville must be taking notes for Jackass 5. Looks like Steve-O has some competition.

The Russian version of this show would be much more brutal and stupid

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I already discussed the puzzling RU obsession with South direction. According to Girkin it looks like Kherson, Land bridge to Crimea and Isthmuses are of critical importance for RU. But as per our previous discussions the nature of the importance is most likely political.

I've found this very interesting.  Prewar there was much discussion about whether Putin would try for a land bridge as a primary goal, if at all.  Once the war started it was clear he was going for everything east of the Dnepr, at least to start with, therefore the land bridge came with that grander plan.  So the prewar theory about the importance of the land bridge was not put to the test as the invasion plan didn't specifically go after that objective.  Now, however, we're getting a real sense of how important the Kremlin perceives it to be.

Personally, I'm a bit surprised.  Putin's SMO rhetoric has been about the Donbas, Donbas, and... let me think about it... oh yes, the Donbas.  Logically he would have withdrawn forces from Kherson to tip the odds in his favor for taking the Donbas and holding it.  He did not.  Logically as options dwindled for the Donbas he would have pulled back, or at least risked, the south in favor of Donbas.  He did not.  He could have done a partial mobilization a couple of months ago to make it less likely that Ukraine could retake Luhansk.  He did not.  Now that Luhansk is up for grabs he still could move forces from the south to minimize the territorial loss.  He has not.

This seems to imply that the land bridge is a higher priority for Putin than the Donbas.  Which is definitely interesting.

Steve

[billbindc]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've found this very interesting.  Prewar there was much discussion about whether Putin would try for a land bridge as a primary goal, if at all.  Once the war started it was clear he was going for everything east of the Dnepr, at least to start with, therefore the land bridge came with that grander plan.  So the prewar theory about the importance of the land bridge was not put to the test as the invasion plan didn't specifically go after that objective.  Now, however, we're getting a real sense of how important the Kremlin perceives it to be.

Personally, I'm a bit surprised.  Putin's SMO rhetoric has been about the Donbas, Donbas, and... let me think about it... oh yes, the Donbas.  Logically he would have withdrawn forces from Kherson to tip the odds in his favor for taking the Donbas and holding it.  He did not.  Logically as options dwindled for the Donbas he would have pulled back, or at least risked, the south in favor of Donbas.  He did not.  He could have done a partial mobilization a couple of months ago to make it less likely that Ukraine could retake Luhansk.  He did not.  Now that Luhansk is up for grabs he still could move forces from the south to minimize the territorial loss.  He has not.

This seems to imply that the land bridge is a higher priority for Putin than the Donbas.  Which is definitely interesting.

Steve

After watching that speech, I'm not convinced we should read too much strategy into Russian deployments. Putin is operating without much recourse to staffing or external input. The strategy, such as it is, is whatever is going on in his head. I would expect we will see irrational choices be reinforced, key sectors ignored and generally a shambolic lurch towards the first use of a nuclear weapon in a war since 1945. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by billbindc

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Do not think so. I think they are pulling forces they saved for defending RU border and front line North of Svatove.

This is consistent with what we've seen happen over many months, but most recently along the Finnish border.  Putin is once again demonstrating that he knows that NATO is no threat to Russia provided Russia doesn't strike first (we hope he also understands a nuke in Ukraine is equal to an attack on NATO).  The whole NATO threat is pure autocrat fear mongering BS and he knows it.  And because he knows it, he can slowly drain away all Russia's border defenses and even strategic missile forces to fight in Ukraine without fearing NATO crossing the lines on the map.

At this point Putin might be desperate enough to assume Ukraine won't try anything sneaky over its border, in particular towards Belgorod, and strip forces from there as well.  There's not much to start with.  The bulk of them were decimated in the early phase of the Kharkiv offensive.

Steve

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've found this very interesting.  Prewar there was much discussion about whether Putin would try for a land bridge as a primary goal, if at all.  Once the war started it was clear he was going for everything east of the Dnepr, at least to start with, therefore the land bridge came with that grander plan.  So the prewar theory about the importance of the land bridge was not put to the test as the invasion plan didn't specifically go after that objective.  Now, however, we're getting a real sense of how important the Kremlin perceives it to be.

Personally, I'm a bit surprised.  Putin's SMO rhetoric has been about the Donbas, Donbas, and... let me think about it... oh yes, the Donbas.  Logically he would have withdrawn forces from Kherson to tip the odds in his favor for taking the Donbas and holding it.  He did not.  Logically as options dwindled for the Donbas he would have pulled back, or at least risked, the south in favor of Donbas.  He did not.  He could have done a partial mobilization a couple of months ago to make it less likely that Ukraine could retake Luhansk.  He did not.  Now that Luhansk is up for grabs he still could move forces from the south to minimize the territorial loss.  He has not.

This seems to imply that the land bridge is a higher priority for Putin than the Donbas.  Which is definitely interesting.

Steve

Or he is simply trying to hold everything, as his ilk is wont to to.  I think he believes he will stop UKR offensive before much loss to Luhansk.  He's currently able to say his war paid off, look at all the denazified territory and the people returned to their natural home, Russia.  

Seems that taking the Kherson Kessel should be a high priority for UKR since that will put the lie to Putin's annexation and tough talk.

[Butschi]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've found this very interesting.  Prewar there was much discussion about whether Putin would try for a land bridge as a primary goal, if at all.  Once the war started it was clear he was going for everything east of the Dnepr, at least to start with, therefore the land bridge came with that grander plan.  So the prewar theory about the importance of the land bridge was not put to the test as the invasion plan didn't specifically go after that objective.  Now, however, we're getting a real sense of how important the Kremlin perceives it to be.

Personally, I'm a bit surprised.  Putin's SMO rhetoric has been about the Donbas, Donbas, and... let me think about it... oh yes, the Donbas.  Logically he would have withdrawn forces from Kherson to tip the odds in his favor for taking the Donbas and holding it.  He did not.  Logically as options dwindled for the Donbas he would have pulled back, or at least risked, the south in favor of Donbas.  He did not.  He could have done a partial mobilization a couple of months ago to make it less likely that Ukraine could retake Luhansk.  He did not.  Now that Luhansk is up for grabs he still could move forces from the south to minimize the territorial loss.  He has not.

This seems to imply that the land bridge is a higher priority for Putin than the Donbas.  Which is definitely interesting.

Steve

Crimea was always more important to Russia than the Donbas, I think. I mean Crimea had been annexed directly and we've already established that if Putin was to drop a nuke it would be most likely to defend Crimea. Donbas is a nice narrative for this whole war, it's important for propaganda. But given the importance of Crimea, a land bridge to Crimea must be vastly more important because the peninsula is otherwise an exclave that can be only supplied via sea or the Kerch bridge. And we all have a feeling of how vulnerable that is.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

503rd MRR was previously reported in key position facing Huliaipole, but I don’t know how recently.  Regardless, 58th CAA is clearly responsible for this area and this is a key component of its strength.

One of the vexing things about this war is trying to figure out what a unit icon on the map really means.  Both sides split up Brigade/Regiments to cover wildly different sectors of front.  We've even seen examples this being done at the company level.  So when I hear that X unit has moved to Y location, I find it hard to know what that really means.

Then there is the whole manpower issue to consider

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Crimea was always more important to Russia than the Donbas, I think. I mean Crimea had been annexed directly and we've already established that if Putin was to drop a nuke it would be most likely to defend Crimea. Donbas is a nice narrative for this whole war, it's important for propaganda. But given the importance of Crimea, a land bridge to Crimea must be vastly more important because the peninsula is otherwise an exclave that can be only supplied via sea or the Kerch bridge. And we all have a feeling of how vulnerable that is.

Correct, but before the war there was a healthy debate about how important the land bridge was in terms of dedicating resources to secure it.  Sure, if Ukraine put a For Sale sign on the Azov coast, Russia would have snapped it up in a heartbeat.  But waging war explicitly to secure it?  It was dismissed by many and, I think, they were right to do that.  But now that Russia has it, seems to me that of all the territory they control the south is taking on increasingly outsized importance for Putin related to the stated objectives of the SMO.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Or he is simply trying to hold everything, as his ilk is wont to to. 

Sure, that is what he is trying to do.  But in doing so he deliberately sent manpower from Luhansk to reinforce the south (including Kherson).  At first this could be excused as desperate wishful thinking that it wouldn't bite him in the arse, but he has been bitten hard and yet isn't shifting significant forces from the south (where there is no fighting) to Luhansk (which is in total collapse).

This indicates that he has assessed that it's better to risk losing Luhansk than it is the south.  Which is what is interesting about this since all of the SMO rhetoric is focused on the Donbas.

Steve

[billbindc]

 

From Putin's speech. Given that he made a similar statement about the pipelines I'm going to revise my earlier conclusion that it had to be some internal nationalist thing with Dugin. Putin's judgement is so out of whack he may think this sort of thing helps him.