How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

ChrisO took the time to link to a tweet where a Russian shows off more decent conditions for the mobilized, so despite all the issues seen, we still have thousands of mobilized men who may be able to fight decently, have decent morale, at least until they start getting hit in Ukraine. I lost the tweet, but there was a tweet noting that entering Ukraine, the Russians were able to be fine with heading to the front, be somewhat confident, but upon experiencing combat, and being in Ukraine, changed their opinion and their morale sank. 

 

 

Particularly pleased with this comment under her post. This photo is from 2020. A typical mistake of Russian propaganda is leftist photos from the Internet

[sburke]

9 hours ago, keas66 said:

Indeed  ! - I'd be curious to see how the more civilized/prudent members of the Forum think we are going to re-educate the Russians after their defeat in Ukraine to purge this incessant hatred and lack of guilt/responsibility for their  uncivilized actions  ....but that would be a distraction . I more interested in what is going on around Lyman right now  .

I'll give it a shot though I am not even remotely qualified.

First off to address a previously used example - Japan. My spouse is Japanese.  I studiously avoid discussion of ww2. The Japanese version is significantly different than what I understand to be Japan's actions in ww2.   Japan was demilitarized, but never forced to really teach generation after generation of the atrocities committed.  It is still a very xenophobic society, though it does a lot of good humanitarian work around the globe.

As previously noted, no one is going to occupy Russia.  No one is going to force them to face their history.    So how do I see this going down?

In 1991 Russia had a brief moment to have its own version of a Prague spring.  It chose a different path. They allowed a criminal mob to run their country while they fed off stories of their greatness.  Meanwhile the mob ransacked their country.  Ukraine has torn the cover off just how decrepit the nation has become, and western sanctions have removed any chance of trying to patchwork it.  Russia has in effect inflicted the Morgenthau plan on itself.  China is going to be too busy dealing with its own demographic iceberg.  Russia is on its own while its industry is collapsing.  There is nothing left to rebuild a military, hell they are gonna have a hard enough time just fulfilling their basic needs.  Western companies could care less about politics, they are all about risk and reward.  Russia blew that equation out in the spring.  Western investment won't be seen at scale for quite a long time. The country is huge and will have no airline transportation system to speak of.  Maybe they'll have enough industry to keep the rail lines going.  Russia has the potential to become a massive humanitarian disaster. 

Russia won't be Ukraine's problem after this war.  Well not as currently viewed.  It will likely however evolve into an anarchic criminal mess even worse than now so strict border controls will be necessary to safeguard Ukrainian society.

In the US we have this debate now on what has been called critical race theory.  Whichever side one stands on the issue, both agree it is an issue of how you teach history.  The US is a really young country, if we are still debating our history, it is folly to think we'll somehow reeducate Russians into a different view.  The Russians will have to do that themselves and it won't happen in any of our lifetimes.

In a sense they are already being demilitarized.  As Steve noted, the army is trashed and there is no rebuilding it.  They simply don't have the resources, knowledge or societal base to do it.  Russia will be the first 3rd world country with nukes. Hopefully we can simply buy them from them and let them sort out their mess without the risk of nuclear stupidity like we have now.

Edited September 29, 2022 by sburke

[Huba]

A thread from Dara Massicot. Hard to summarize, definitely worth reading:

 

[mosuri]

Another manager got suicided:

Railways company manager -- hmmm.... not sure what "digital logistics" means tho

 

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

What I always find fascinating about these kind of pictures of the Ukrainian military is the quiet professionalism that they seem to emit. That was something noticeable from the first hours of the war. Whatever the situation, they always seem to know exactly what they're doing.

In a few years, these guys will be training us, not the other way around.

The demand for Ukrainian lecturers in Western staff colleges is going to be overwhelming.

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Small note - I do not feel like it is a big deal even for the majority of RU. Looks like it is important only for RU Nats/veterans of L-DPR.   

I suspect it will also be very important for the current management of the L/DPR. My money is that they take long walks off of short window ledges sometime soon as Russia consolidates control.

3 hours ago, Huba said:

Soo, some Czech media report that there's a deal made with South Korea, that will sell up to $3B worth of armaments to Ukraine, using Czech intermediaries. The article I found is behind paywall unfortunately, but the visible part mentions artillery ammunition( a no-brainer really) and KP-SAM MANPADS. @Letter from Prague did you hear anything about it? Any corroboration from other CZ media?

https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/domaci/ukrajina-valka-korejske-zbrane-pres-cesko-dodavka-zasoby-usa.A220928_175118_domaci_albe?zdroj=top

Some confirmation:

https://see.news/s-korea-to-send-weapons-worth-2-9-bln-to-ukraine/

ROK has a brigade worth of T-80U and BMP-3, I wonder if they would be willing to sell these, an interesting opportunity for sure.

One more thought. Poland recently went on an absolutely crazy shopping spree in Korea, buying everything immediately available and making deals for setting up local production of tanks, SPGs, with wheeled/ tracked IFVs and MLRS to follow in near future. There was a lot of discussion that these deals might have some secret clauses in them - I wonder if that isn't one of them. ROK is on a great track to establish itself as key armaments supplier for NATO armies, especially in CEE. Showing that if SHTF they are ready to help with their own stocks will for sure go a long way with many potential buyers.

South Korea has clearly looked at the German hesitation to support Ukraine properly and realized it is a huge business opportunity. It isn't like the Poles are exactly fond of the Germans anyway. I suspect this is going to be an at least medium sized reordering of the global arms business.   I assume at least 75% of what Poland is receiving from the ROK is moving on to Ukraine without even slowing down and will until the Russians are beaten. Poland is 100% aware they have picked a side and have committed fully. Once Ukraine is in the EU and NATO their alliance is going to have real heft.

3 hours ago, akd said:

Close-range tank fight:

 

It is just beyond infuriating the AFU is still fighting in post soviet crap. Against a Leopard 2 or Abrams those Russian tanks would have been dead before they got into the video frame. My Congressman is getting TWO letters this week.

 

[Zeleban]

By the way, about the supply of weapons. The next time, at a UN meeting, Russia accuses the United States of escalating the war by supplying weapons to Ukraine, we can confidently appeal to these statistics.

[Kinophile]

Its the classic of what's dramatic, crazy and OMG WETF is what makes it to our eyeballs (through Media), because what isn't those things is well, boring and doesn't get repeated or presented. Boring doesn't sell. So once I  started seeing all the videos of ridiculous fails ref moblization, and untrained clueless guys appearing on the front lines, I assumed those were just the dramatic ones that get attention and so get shared.

Even though they're way too common and widespread (as well as disparate in the various scenes being shown) for how a modern mobilization effort should be done, they still show one thing - a lot, and I mean a LOT of men are going through the mobilization process. The sheer quantity wont win the war (pace the equipment/training and command issues we all know) but it sure as heck will affect something on the battlefield. Either the pace of advance, the length of the front, new fronts being opened, flank protection, etc.

So the fact remains - the mobilization is still happening, resistance is minimal in effect and the system is succeeding in its basic mission - get bodies onto the battlefield asap.

We're all having a good chuckle at the incompetence of the mobilization, but shoudn't we be looking more analytically at the actual battlefield effects, tactical and operational?

That's a far more useful conversation that Oh Look Dumb Ivans In A Field, Again, Silly Sheeples. Sure, yes, dumb. But at some point those hundreds of thousands of miltiarized sheep will be in battle. I fully expect the first few waves of mobiliks to melt away but through sheer quantity enough will be kept in place/survive to still be in the way and a threat to nearby UKR units. I ahve great faith in the UA but there is a point where quantity will have effect. How much, I dont know, and want to find out.

The presence of 100,000-300,000 men will change something - I'm not going to pretend I know what, or to what extent, but that's where I'm putting my efforts these days.

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap.  Yeah, I misread the 200 and 300.  I really needed more sleep.

Steve

Even, so his numbers are laughable. I highly doubt any force retreating through an interdicted and heavily observed GLOC is getting out of there without heavy and unsustainable casualties.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Kinophile

[Cederic]

57 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Something else to think about, we already had reports of looting and seizure in both occupied and recently occupied areas of Ukraine, if their ability to supply the mobilized units remains as bad as it is now, we are going to see that rise, and a according rise in hardship for the civilian population. While looting isn't isolated to one side in any war, there seems to be noticeable effort by Ukraine including both government and civil society to try and assist civilians in the front line zones.

Hot take: When you secure basic rations from the local stores, it's not looting. It's foraging.

Expecting armed men to starve while civilians around them can go quietly shopping is not reasonable.

(Sending armed men to another country uninvited is also unreasonable, even if you send food with them)

[FancyCat]

19 minutes ago, billbindc said:

https://faridaily.substack.com/p/putin-always-chooses-escalation

This is well worth reading in the sense that describing how the iceberg and the Titanic met is well worth reading. The inescapable conclusion is that for this to end, Russia must be clearly seen to have lost and Putin must be dead or gone. Preferably both.

 

I want to highlight this quote, cause its quite disturbing. When looking at comparisons to other wars and conflicts, its important to compare the goals and motivations of the fighters. From the face of it, Putin seems to dominate the conversation, one could get the sense that Putin is driving the war, and everyone else follows thru on what he states is the goal. Whether or not that is true or remains true as time goes on...we should probably understand that Russia is not truly suffering yet from the effects of the war, not really. At least not losses the elite can understand. 

Once that changes, maybe we will see more of a opposition. 

Of essential importance when analyzing the will of a country to fight on, we need to understand the perception of the combatants towards each other. While Putin's goals, motivations and mindset is important, so is the people under him, if we read the line from the article below, “The message is: don’t forget, Ukraine does not have the right to defeat us" we run not only into hubris, but a imperial mindset, where attitudes like the superiority of Russia will always prevail, and the idea of Ukraine as a entity appropriately deserving to sit down with and make some sort of middle peace, might clash against the idea that Ukraine's existence is not deserved, or that Ukrainians are going to break at some point.  

Quote

“Have some of that, you Nazis,” said the source, explaining Putin's logic with grim irony and highlighting that the referendums are an excuse to justify mobilization. The threat of nuclear war is a message to Western politicians, according to the source. “The message is: don’t forget, Ukraine does not have the right to defeat us. By supplying weapons, you are only delaying Ukraine’s demise.”

Despite the evidence to the contrary, many people continue to believe the war will soon be over. “Even now, people try to think that this is all temporary. Things are escalating now, and that's good because it means it will all be over sooner,” said one source at a large private company who rubs shoulders with top officials.

When asked what would happen if Russia lost, our source replied that he could not imagine such a scenario. As with our other interviewees who support the war, he only reiterated the narrative spouted by propagandists: the West wants to destroy Russia, and defeat in a war with Ukraine would mean Russia’s demise.

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

So the fact remains - the mobilization is still happening, resistance is minimal in effect and the system is succeeding in its basic mission - get bodies onto the battlefield asap.

We're all having a good chuckle at the incompetence of the mobilization, but shoudn't we be looking more analytically at the actual battlefield effects, tactical and operational?

That's a far more useful conversation that Oh Look Dumb Ivans In A Field, Again, Silly Sheeples. Sure, yes, dumb. But at some point those hundreds of thousands of miltiarized sheep will be in battle. I fully expect the first few waves of mobiliks to melt away but through sheer quantity enough will be kept in place/survive to still be in the way and a threat to nearby UKR units. I ahve great faith in the UA but there is a point where quantity will have effect. How much, I dont know, and want to find out.

You've seen the logistical problems Russia has already.  What do you think is going to happen to that logistical train when you add this many mouths?   I see utter disaster for Russia.  This has the potential to be the military disaster Steve is waiting for to push Russia over the edge.  They shove these guys unsupplied to the front in winter?  Yeah that isn't going to end well.

[riptides]

26 minutes ago, billbindc said:

A suggestion: think less about dubious ethnic essentialism and/or pretty fantasizing about a post-Russia world. Instead, try to imagine this war ends. It's a far more salient question and harder likely than you think. 

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-end

That's a really interesting article. Thanks for the link.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Its the classic of what's dramatic, crazy and OMG WETF is what makes it to our eyeballs (through Media), because what isn't those things is well, boring and doesn't get repeated or presented. Boring doesn't sell. So once I  started seeing all the videos of ridiculous fails ref moblization, and untrained clueless guys appearing on the front lines, I assumed those were just the dramatic ones that get attention and so get shared.

Even though they're way too common and widespread (as well as disparate in the various scenes being shown) for how a modern mobilization effort should be done, they still show one thing - a lot, and I mean a LOT of men are going through the mobilization process. The sheer quantity wont win the war (pace the equipment issues we all know) but it sure as heck will affect something. Either the pace, the length of the front, new fronts being opened, etc. 

So the fact remains - the mobilization is still happening, resistance is minimal in effect and the system is succeeding in its basic mission - get bodies onto the battlefield asap.

We're all having a good chuckle at the incompetence of the mobilization, but shoudn't we be looking more analytically at the actual battlefield effects, tactical and operational?

That's a far more useful conversation that Oh Look Dumb Ivans In A Field, Again, Silly Sheeples. Sure, yes, dumb. But at some point those hundreds of thousands of miltiarized sheep will be in battle. I fully expect the first few waves of mobiliks to melt away but through sheer quantity enough will be kept in place/survive to still be in the way and a threat to nearby UKR units. I ahve great faith in the UA but there is a point where quantity will have effect. How much, I dont know, and want to find out.

The presence of 100,000-300,000 men will change something - I'm not going to pretend I know what, or to what extent, but that's where I'm putting my efforts these days.

 

Even, so his numbers are laughable. I highly doubt any force retreating through an interdicted and heavily observed GLOC is getting out of there without heavy and unsustainable casualties.

Shoving more men onto a logistics system that is strained to the breaking point already is going to do very little for the Russians. And as the average quality of their units decline the chances the AFU can initiate a truly mass rout even bigger than the one in Kharkiv just go up and up. And we at the beginning of winter. Mobik popsicles are going to be a thing, never mind the epidemic of trench foot I see coming. Russian failure will take a few months longer perhaps. It will also be infinitely more complete. 

[Artkin]

11 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

By the way, about the supply of weapons. The next time, at a UN meeting, Russia accuses the United States of escalating the war by supplying weapons to Ukraine, we can confidently appeal to these statistics.

Best part about that, a lot of that (The better kit) was originally made in Kharkov. Too funny. 

[danfrodo]

So now we see Putin's game clearly.  

1.  wreck European economy (and global) as much as possible w energy cutoffs, via sabotage or whatever means.  This is working.  If he cuts off the 3rd pipeline it will really cause trouble.  Stock markets hate uncertainty and Putin is bringing lots of it.  

2.  Keep threatening nukes if UKR too successful, or if NATO gets more involved.   And I think he will use a tactical nuke to stop UKR at some point.  I no longer think this is a small probability given this pipeline sabotage.  He knows that nukes are his trump card and is now desperate enough to go there.

3.  RU economy is heading downhill but Putin clearly thinks he can take the pain longer than Europe can.

So the only hope is that someone kills Putin.  And soon.  but no one seems to be in a position to do this even though surely all the big political players know it needs to happen to save their country.  

[Kinophile]

15 minutes ago, sburke said:

You've seen the logistical problems Russia has already.  What do you think is going to happen to that logistical train when you add this many mouths?   I see utter disaster for Russia.  This has the potential to be the military disaster Steve is waiting for to push Russia over the edge.  They shove these guys unsupplied to the front in winter?  Yeah that isn't going to end well.

Good point! lets explore that.

I'm not entirely convinced we're going to see Russian military collapse anytime soon. They still have a basic (not good) capacity to move men around and feed them. I'll also note that the harvest is now in, and waiting for that might be something that helped delay mobilization. Agriculture is heavily labour dependent, even Western farming, and RUS agriculture is several decades behind.

During WW1, ripping millions of farm labourers off the land is the fundamental root cause of the fall of the Romanovs - food shortages going on for years.

So, we can say that the RUS MoD will at least:

• Mobilize 150,000 men
• Get them to the Front, somewhat ok equipped
• Feed them somewhat ok
• Let them loose on UKR civilians for anything extra (already happening)
• Use them to fatten the line and fill gaps.

The Kremlin possibly thinks that this will get the MoD about 3-5 months breathing space before the Jan/Feb winter horror show really kicks into high gear.

To be clear, I'm also convinced the Ukraine theater will collapse - I'm absolutely NOT on the side of the RUS will muddle through somehow. The above is just my assumption of what they cna, for now, shove through the ever-fracturing pipeline.

The RUS army will retreat or collapse (either sectionally or sequentially).

Its the when (and where?) that I'm interested in.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I want to highlight this quote, cause its quite disturbing. When looking at comparisons to other wars and conflicts, its important to compare the goals and motivations of the fighters. From the face of it, Putin seems to dominate the conversation, one could get the sense that Putin is driving the war, and everyone else follows thru on what he states is the goal. Whether or not that is true or remains true as time goes on...we should probably understand that Russia is not truly suffering yet from the effects of the war, not really. At least not losses the elite can understand. 

Once that changes, maybe we will see more of a opposition. 

Of essential importance when analyzing the will of a country to fight on, we need to understand the perception of the combatants towards each other. While Putin's goals, motivations and mindset is important, so is the people under him, if we read the line from the article below, “The message is: don’t forget, Ukraine does not have the right to defeat us" we run not only into hubris, but a imperial mindset, where attitudes like the superiority of Russia will always prevail, and the idea of Ukraine as a entity appropriately deserving to sit down with and make some sort of middle peace, might clash against the idea that Ukraine's existence is not deserved, or that Ukrainians are going to break at some point.  

 

The two articles that I posted above do not address Russian economic capability. Sanctions effects are going to become much more pronounced for Russians this winter and will become worse and worse going forward. This will greatly damage the ability of the Russian military to function. It will also completely destroy the last vestiges of Putin's old compact with the Russian people. In addition, it's very clear now that China, India and other allies have given Russia very clear warnings against going nuclear and he cannot expect any change in their willingness to help him in this war by doing so. Will is not an endless resource and tends to be more fragile in states that constantly feel the need to vocally assert it. The biggest question left for us is whether or not that will persists past the point of using nuclear weapons. At this point, I'd have to say that it does. We'll see.

[Cederic]

Can't find this chap in a search. New entry in the list?

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The two articles that I posted above do not address Russian economic capability. Sanctions effects are going to become much more pronounced for Russians this winter and will become worse and worse going forward. This will greatly damage the ability of the Russian military to function. It will also completely destroy the last vestiges of Putin's old compact with the Russian people. In addition, it's very clear now that China, India and other allies have given Russia very clear warnings against going nuclear and he cannot expect any change in their willingness to help him in this war by doing so. Will is not an endless resource and tends to be more fragile in states that constantly feel the need to vocally assert it. The biggest question left for us is whether or not that will persists past the point of using nuclear weapons. At this point, I'd have to say that it does. We'll see.

Maybe it will be easier to avert it by NATO getting in now? Get three brigades rolling into Ukraine right now. State explicitly and for the record that if Russia pops a nuke they have started WW3. They can go home and whine that at least they lost to NATO, or Russia can cease to exist. Putin is still screwing around thinking he has escalation dominance. It might hurt less to prove him wrong before nukes instead of after.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Can't find this chap in a search. New entry in the list?

 

looks to be a new recruit for the dead list.  Any idea what his rank would have been?

Edited September 29, 2022 by sburke

[G.I. Joe]

54 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Know it's very early, but which contemporary historians are best suited to chronical and analyzed the war? Will they be some well known NY Times best seller ("Killing Putin") or relative unknowns out of the fields of journalism or military studies? I suppose the first histories will be written by frontline reporters and military analysis might take years to publish in book form. The Pentagon will probably quickly put out some kind of lessons learned type report which will interest all of us. Books detailing all the geopolitical factors, along with battle analysis, might be hard to come by for a while.

If Phillips Payson O'Brien ever writes a book on this war, I will definitely pre-order it and start reading the moment it arrives.

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Maybe it will be easier to avert it by NATO getting in now? Get three brigades rolling into Ukraine right now. State explicitly and for the record that if Russia pops a nuke they have started WW3. They can go home and whine that at least they lost to NATO, or Russia can cease to exist. Putin is still screwing around thinking he has escalation dominance. It might hurt less to prove him wrong before nukes instead of after.

I don't think Putin would be affected much by the entry of limited NATO forces at this point. That's not to say he wants it but he's already escalating at NATO with things like the pipeline sabotage. And as you note, in some ways it would help him at home...to mobilize, etc...not necessarily as an escape clause.

[Calamine Waffles]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I think gun or autoloader failed.

T-64's autoloader is known to be quite reliable, but I guess it is possible.

[akd]

Well now…

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

can anybody find the oryx page that listed the 2014-2015 OSINT verified equipment losses?

Can't find it for the life of me

[sburke]

 

Putin has succeeded in mobilising a Russian army on the borders... not to fight, but flee (msn.com)

Imagine someone on the bridge of the Titanic screaming "steer for the iceberg!  Those cowards can flee in the lifeboats!"

Quote

 

But it may also be exactly what the regime wants as it plots its future. The young and the savvy who have the best chance to see beyond the state's lies and propaganda and what is really going on in their country.

One official has said as much - Ella Pamfilova, the head of Russia's election commission.

"Let the rats who are running run," she is quoted as saying. "The ship will be ours. It's gaining strength and clearly moving towards its target."

As an observer on Twitter noted, she seems gloriously unaware of the reason rats flee ships.