How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Let's go Scholz. On with it already.

I think it is very double faced for the Germans to state they are not sending tanks because nobody else is and at the same time they are blocking everyone from sending any German made tanks first. In Europe German made tanks are almost the only option. 

[Artkin]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think it is very double faced for the Germans to state they are not sending tanks because nobody else is and at the same time they are blocking everyone from sending any German made tanks first. In Europe German made tanks are almost the only option. 

I think I read there was somewhere around 2000 leopard 2's floating around, not many. I can't imagine one country that has anywhere near that many tanks in Europe. Turkey does, but they aren't modernized, and aren't really much of a "Western" country. Germany has like 325? Poland, Spain, and Greece should have a bunch. Greece really doesn't need them.

[LongLeftFlank]

12 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think it is very double faced for the Germans to state they are not sending tanks because nobody else is and at the same time they are blocking everyone from sending any German made tanks first. In Europe German made tanks are almost the only option. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2_Black_Panther#Current_operators

https://web.archive.org/web/20220729165048/https://cdn.defence24.pl/2022/07/29/b8a347b7-2dc4-4ddb-82dc-b49174860aa2.pdf

Yes, bird in the hand, etc.  But could deliveries be accelerated and then, ahem, rerouted? 

With a second set of training and maintenance courses, hosted iin Poland and conducted in Ukrainian?

Edited September 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yes, the UN has always been a talking (and posturing) shop whose effectiveness at bottom relied on the postwar Pax Americana. That hegemony began decaying (like some radioactive element I'm too lazy to Google) almost instantly, for many reasons.

The SC was as much a sop to the fading imperial powers as to the (delusion) that China and the USSR could be coaxed into the responsible community of nations, and that the Big 5 could collectively keep the rest in line, fed, etc. (The Four Freedoms).

Greece 1946+, Israel 1947, Berlin 1948 and Korea 1950 put that idealism away pretty quickly, as did Suez 1956.

EDIT:  It was also a convenient way for (mainly African) dictators to get their political opponents out of the country, with their families.  Here, here's a plush office, a brownstone and free parking in Manhattan. Now go away.

The U.N. is all but worthless, and yet necessary. It is useful to have a place where countries that really don't like each other can confer somewhat easily. And it has some capacity to make things better in parts of the that are so poor no one cares about the specifics, or the interests of all the big powers happen to align. We would probably have to reinvent it if we shut it down.  BUT...

NATO, Five Eyes plus a South Korea, Japan, and maybe on the down low Taiwan, need to start talking about a world wide club/alliance with standards. How to do this is sort of beyond the scope of this thread and the current war in Ukraine. But it is time to think about a world wide alliance of the decent. If the same drawing power the EU exerts could be crafted it might help a lot of countries climb the development ladder without detouring into unpleasant authoritarianism. It is hard to overstate how much the attraction of joining the EU has helped and shaped Ukraine.

[The_MonkeyKing]

20 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I think I read there was somewhere around 2000 leopard 2's floating around, not many. I can't imagine one country that has anywhere near that many tanks in Europe. Turkey does, but they aren't modernized, and aren't really much of a "Western" country. Germany has like 325? Poland, Spain, and Greece should have a bunch. Greece really doesn't need them.

European countries could create a "pool" so that everyone chips in with 10-30% of they tanks that would be replaced sometime after Ukraine situation cools down then. Some of this pool would be internally swapped and some send to Ukraine, making sure Ukraine gets the up to date modes and similar versions.

From here you can find the operators: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2

around half are 2A5-A7 and half 2A4.

This means Ukraine could easily get around 200. That would be a "worth it" amount.

and again to remind everyone most of these tanks exist only to counter Russian threat. In Ukraine they will be decreasing that threat even further. Russian threat has now decreased significantly(for the next decade or so) and Europe will be able to rearms faster than Russia after the war cools down.

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's report for Sept 26th is now out.  It starts out with a scathing examination of the regime's self inflicted mobilization wounds.  It's incredible.  For 6 months Putin has been reluctant to do mobilization because of the political risks, only to make it 10 times worse by setting conditions for it to fail spectacularly.  The amount of back peddling and finger pointing by official Russian propaganda channels shows how bad things REALLY are.  They know that the TikTok and Telegram videos of problem areas and rushes to the border are just the tip of the iceberg.

On the military front, it seems ISW is reasonably confident that Ukraine is encroaching on Tavil'zhanka, otherwise they would have chosen different language when presenting this possibility.  This indicates that Ukraine is still pursuing a "broad front" strategy even though it is focused on the southern portion of the Oskil front.

News from the Donbas looks to be more of the same.  Wager is making slow progress towards Bahkmut, but elsewhere DLPR forces are launching small scale attacks that Ukraine seems able to swat back pretty easily.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Odd that many of the experts out there discussing how bad the execution of Russia's mobilization is aren't talking about one particular aspect.  Specialized positions.

As we all know, some specialties within the military require years of training just to get proficient.  Russia has long suffered from this, especially since cutting down conscription from 24 months to 12.  I think the results of that can be easily seen in this war.  Fast forward 6 months of devastating casualties and shortages of specialists has got to be beyond acute.  The other day I wondered how many long range SPAA systems Russia might have, I should have also wondered how many crews they have for whatever they've got left.

Putin's theoretical mobilization orders stipulated that they were going to emphasize mobilization of specialists from the Reserves, be that officers or radar technicians.  What we've seen instead is them grabbing whomever they can, so of the rumored 100,000 taken in so far, it doesn't seem to me that many will have skills that Russia desperately needs.  Worse, they're being rushed to the battlefield within a day or two which precludes cross training specialists on systems they aren't quite familiar with, but could theoretically handle given some time, and of course means nobody is being trained fresh to fill the shoes of those who became casualties.

There are already people noting that the vehicle convoys going into the the front are just trucks loaded with riflemen.  Is it more because the armored and specialist vehicles aren't available or more because there's nobody to operate them?  I'm sure it is some of both, but right now I'm guessing it's mostly because there's nobody qualified to operate anything other than a truck.

Russia sure does know how to take a bad situation and deliberately make it worse.  Well done!

Steve

[JonS]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There are already people noting that the vehicle convoys going into the the front are just trucks loaded with riflemen.  Is it more because the armored and specialist vehicles aren't available or more because there's nobody to operate them?

It could also be because the specialists aren't on those trucks ... because they are off somewhere doing those refresher/familiarisation courses you talked about.

As you know well, what you see - or are shown - isn't everything there is to be seen.

Then again: Russia. So probably not

Edited September 27, 2022 by JonS

[FancyCat]

So how is the weather in Ukraine? Have the rains begun? If so then how do you expect Ukraine to advance or is it that bad until Winter? Or past winter?

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

So how is the weather in Ukraine? Have the rains begun? If so then how do you expect Ukraine to advance or is it that bad until Winter? Or past winter?

At least in Finland the weather would not have significant effect on operations. This is a basic principle of all preparation and planning. Finland is in some sort of "weather trouble" 2/3 of the year.

I doubt Ukrainians would wind down their ops because of weather.

Weather also effect both sides and gives an advantage to the one that adapts better. 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, JonS said:

It could also be because the specialists aren't on those trucks ... because they are off somewhere doing those refresher/familiarisation courses you talked about.

As you know well, what you see - or are shown - isn't everything there is to be seen.

Then again: Russia. So probably not

Funny, I didn't even consider it a possibility that they were doing any sort of training

By all accounts there hasn't been any training going on for some time now.  The volunteers that signed up on their own were promised training times that didn't happen.  Trainers are also in short supply as they've largely been pushed to the front.  I read one article that said a particular military unit (sorry, forget which) struggled to find anybody that could train people how to use artillery.

So it seems that things are so bad at the front that Putin doesn't think they have even weeks to spare for training, not to mention months and absolutely not years. 

Ukraine, on the other hand, kept its reserves disengaged from the front and training for months.  Even sent 10s of thousands outside of the country to get trained.  The guys manning specialist systems, like artillery, were drawn from existing artillery units instead of being ground up trainees.  Of course this process wasn't perfect, but I think Kharkiv shows how successful it was.

Russia is fighting attempting to fight a long term war using short term methodologies.  Ukraine, on the other hand, is fighting a long term war full stop.  In 6 months the Ukrainian Army is going to be even better than it is now, and it is already superior to Russia's in all ways.  Same 6 months for Russia's military and... wow... armed mob is about all they will be.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

At least in Finland the weather would not have significant effect on operations. This is a basic principle of all preparation and planning. Finland is in some sort of "weather trouble" 2/3 of the year.

I doubt Ukrainians would wind down their ops because of weather.

Weather also effect both sides and gives an advantage to the one that adapts better. 

Mud makes things slower even if you know how to deal with it.  So I don't think it's stopping as much as limiting.

The latest Perun video has long section from The Chieftain about armored vehicle maintenance and recovery.  Russia has already shown very poor capabilities for both.  That's only going to get worse.

Steve

[Fenris]

Didn't Grigb mention up thread that a Wagner unit had disappeared?  This got me thinking, would it be in the realms of possibility that this guy would use his PMC internally if the opportunity for advancement presented itself?  What sort of support base or block does he fall into?

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Fenris

[Peregrine]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

It could also be because the specialists aren't on those trucks ... because they are off somewhere doing those refresher/familiarisation courses you talked about.

As you know well, what you see - or are shown - isn't everything there is to be seen.

Then again: Russia. So probably not

"Month of training?
Hey, wet-pants! This isn't the Women's Auxiliary Balloon Corps. You're in the Twenty-Minuters Russian Army now." - paraphrase Blackadder IV

Hideous war extending collecting warm bodies for cold trenches that most losing armies persist in well after reason should have kicked in because vain fascists view their ego as more important than their citizens lives.

[Grigb]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Why do you guys keep sidestepping NATO as an answer to not being invaded?  The proof is right there in the Baltics.  Yes, there is Russian interference and a$$holery but Russia is not seriously going to go to war with NATO, definitely not now.  I am not sure we need to deconstruct Russia - it has more risks than reward, I do think Ukraine must be within the NATO umbrella.

Can confirm the above.

 

[G.I. Joe]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yampil is a tough nut to crack, it would seem.

Dug up an old (April!) topo map from HeliosRunner, who is offline.  Yampil is that village nestled at the edge of the forest in the southeast quadrant.  UKR has been attacking it since at least 10 Sept.  A future CM scenario? 

 

I like these maps because unlike the 'solid mass of green' Google maps, they clearly contrast the wooded and built up areas from cultivated zones, showing readily how defensible Lyman is, from either direction -- it took RU 7 weeks to take it in the spring.  The flanks are well anchored so any envelopment needs to be large.

Good cartography is important, I also appreciate the contour lines and tinting.

[Grigb]

11 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

I guess RU high command are obsessed with keeping initiative.

Well, besides selling the story that “we are attacking until enemy collapse” to both domestic and western audience, keeping initiative is critical to RU war planning.

If UKR grasps initiative, they can decide where to start an offensive.  Long-termly it spells disaster for RU, because of the troops occupy some “quiet” sectors.  UKR’s TDF can absorb a significant part of RU offensive (either independently or with help and support). What RU has? Rosgvardiya,  Mobilize…. They are either going to melt away in front of a UKR offensive campaign or losing territory here and there in an opportunity attack. That requires RU to move its already depleted “elite” force here and there as a fire brigade.

So from RU perspective, keep UKR on the defense sounds like a reasonable solution to a complicate problem.

Of course ironically, RU's obsessive with keeping initiative caused this huge mistake, it speeds up the process for the AFU to firmly grasps the initiative.

Yes, they are. In RU military thinking keeping initiative is paramount. But due to their low intellectual capacity it results in ramming enemy defenses in different places until nobody is left. So, from that perspective it is logical they concentrate troops at the South direction at the expense of North direction.

But still mud season is upon them and usually RU command pauses offensive operations till cold freezes the ground in January (see Debaltsevo battle). So, why sacrifice the North now if they have few more months? Or do they want to risk fighting in mud?

As usual we have to wait and see. 

[chuckdyke]

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Can confirm the above.

IMO Ukraine is going to be the model. No boots on the ground as far as the US is concerned. They will support but not with boots on the ground. I can't blame them. Win every battle but still lose wars. Russia was encouraged by this. 

[Grigb]

Just now, chuckdyke said:

IMO Ukraine is going to be the model. No boots on the ground as far as the US is concerned. They will support but not with boots on the ground. I can't blame them. Win every battle but still lose wars. Russia was encouraged by this. 

It is not even about boots on the ground. Deep inside every RU is scared of US. Even hardcore RU Nat. They are creatures of Machismo and Power. They know the US is the Supreme Power, the Top Alfa Dog. And they consider themselves at best the Second Dog.

So, even just the threat of fighting with Top Dog is enough for all of them to look other way.  That why despite all BS aimed at Baltic republics RU have not done anything to them. That's why they are fearful of NATO expansion - they know they will never dare to invade NATO countries so expansion of NATO decreases the number of countries they can invade.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

That's why they are fearful of NATO expansion - they know they will never dare to invade NATO countries so expansion of NATO decreases the number of countries they can invade.

Ukraine is like the Spanish civil war. A theatre to see how the latest hardware functions. The credit to prevent Russian expansion belongs to the Ukraine. Sure US hardware is topnotch but without units with fighting spirit it doesn't function as well. NATO armies are good, but I don't think they can draw a conscription army which will be able to function. 

[CAZmaj]

I was just referred to this tweet by Madi Kapparov.

Based on my studies of history and years of residing and working in Moscow, St. Peterburg, Budapest, Belgrade, Prague, Warsaw, and Podgorica, and traveled extensively in that region of Central and Eastern Europe, but also in Russian Federation Far East (Tomsk) and Kazakhstan, I would agree with most of Madi’s points in his tweet:

Nazism is mainstream in Russia.

What is Nazism? Abstract away from the distractions of economics and markets. Nazism is a form of fascism founded on the delusional belief of one group of people, generally based on ethnicity, being superior to another group of people. 1/

So too the Russians, who have been absorbed by the culture of their ethnic exceptionalism and historic revisionism promoting their ethnic superiority in all aspects, think that they are more privileged than any other ethnicity or nation. 2/

The Russians think that no rules apply to them. They think that they can do whatever they please because they are exceptional.

When the USSR collapsed the new Russian government fought very hard to become a successor state to the Soviet Union. 3/

Much like the USSR became a successor state to the original Russian empire, the Russian federation had to become a successor state to the USSR. Ideologically it was critical to them to preserve imperial continuity of exceptionalism and cultural and historical superiority. 4/

Without the succession, Russia would have had become equal to the former colonies, such as Ukraine, Kazakhstan, etc. That was simply unacceptable to the Russians. They also maintained their centuries-long militarism, as it all feeds into their Russian exceptionalism worldview. 5/

In the 1990s Russia was in dire economic straights and it was completely irrational to maintain a huge military and a large nuclear arsenal. But it was culturally and ideologically of an absolute necessity to the Russians. Why? It is part of their exceptionalism beliefs. 6/

Long before Putin, the war in Transnistria happened. The Russians then had no doubt in the necessity to protect ethnic Russian "separatists" in Moldova, whom the empire moved there over the years. However, just a few years later they went to war with Chechen separatists. 7/

Transnistria was acceptable, while Chechen separatism, a liberation movement, was unacceptable to the Russians. The Russians apply no rules to themselves. You see, they think they are special, exceptional, and superior to the rest of the world. 8/

Chechen independence was absolutely repugnant to the Russians. Negotiations with the Chechens were absolutely unacceptable for an average Russian, until major military defeats and economic strains in 1996. The Russians returned in 1999 to put the "savages" in their place. 9/

Any suggestions for Chechen independence from abroad faced an aggressive push back from the Russians. It is all driven by Russian exceptionalism deeply rooted in their culture. 10/

For the Russians, the protectionism of their empire and their imperial ambitions come naturally. They are an organic part of their individual and national psyche. 11/

Over the years, I have witnessed countless times how aggressively the Russians react to any attempts at an independent foreign policy by the former colonies. Typically, such attempts are called "ungrateful." 12/

The Russians expect their former colonies to be grateful. Grateful for what? In their perverted and revised historical view, they did "so much" for the former colonies, they "civilized" them. 13/

When the former colonies do something independently from Russia, the Russians feel betrayed. “How could they? We did so much for them.” Such Russian behavior is axiomatic. They will hold a grudge and retaliate when an opportunity presents itself. 14/

The reality is that the Russians demand the former colonies to be grateful for the misery, death, destruction, starvation, and sometimes assimilation. Such is the Russian way to “civilize” the “savages.” 15/

The Russians also demand the rest of the world to be grateful to them for the victory over Nazi Germany. In their worldview it is the ethnic Russians *alone* who defeated German Nazism in 1945. “The Great Patriotic War” became one of the pillars of Russian exceptionalism. 16/

Anyone who questions the victory in WW2 the ethnic Russians appropriated will face self-righteous anger and a flurry of insults from them. However, it is unclear why the world should be grateful to them: the USSR was allied to Germany till the very first day of Barbarossa. 17/

Should I even mention the brutal Russian occupation of Eastern Europe following the end of WW2? The Russians expect gratitude for that too. The Russians demand gratitude from the world and from the former colonies, they are special, they are exceptional. 18/

2014 was a point of no return. That year centuries long Russian chauvinism regressed into Russian Nazism. I will ignore Crimea. Russia manufactured oppression of Russian speakers in the Donbas and invaded with “separatists.” That is just a few years after the Chechen Wars. 19/

Again, Russian “separatism” is acceptable, Chechen separatism is unacceptable, because rules do not apply to the Russians. They are exceptional. They allow themselves to do what is unimaginable to them if others do it. That is the essence of Russian Nazism. 20/

I think there are no “good” or “bad” Russians. The distinction is meaningless. There are however sheepishly obedient Russians and zealous z-supporters, averaging out into a regular Russian Nazi. 21/

Germany was zombified by Nazi propaganda for 12 years. The Russians were on their path to Nazism for decades if not centuries. There are no easy fixes. There will be no protests. Changes in the Russian government would solve nothing. The road ahead will be long and difficult. 22/

However Nazi Germany was defeated. So too will be the current version of the Russian empire. Their Nazi worldviews will have to be shattered. The sooner the world realizes it is everyone’s problem, the better.

Ukraine will win as they have no other choice. 23/23

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1574051110654189569.html

Edited September 27, 2022 by CAZmaj
Format x 2

[Zeleban]

A conscript from the 1st Tank Regiment confirms that they will be transferred to Kherson on 09/29/22 without any preparation. No shooting practice, no driving practice.

[Taranis]

Russian arrivals in Georgia nearly doubled to 10,000 a day after mobilization
 

Quote

After Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement last week of a mobilization for his offensive in Ukraine, Russian arrivals in Georgia have nearly doubled to almost 10,000 a day, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. interior of this Caucasian country. "For example, they were 11,200 on Sunday and less than 10,000 on Monday", against "5,000 to 6,000" just before the announcement of the mobilization in Russia, on September 21, detailed the Georgian ministry.

Source : Le Monde

[Butschi]

4 hours ago, Artkin said:

Let's go Scholz. On with it already.

Wait, what is that screenshot?

[Taranis]

"Charred Russian military machines are displayed as symbols of a victory of the Ukrainian people over the Russian army. In front of the Monastery of Saint Michael in the Golden Dome, in kyiv, on July 5, 2022. SAMUEL GRATACAP FOR “LE MONDE”"

"During an exhibition of Russian tactical catches organized by Pavlo Netesov at the former nuclear missile launch base in Pervomaisk, July 21, 2022. SAMUEL GRATACAP FOR "LE MONDE""


"During an exhibition of Russian tactical catches organized by Pavlo Netesov at the former nuclear missile launch base in Pervomaisk, July 21, 2022. SAMUEL GRATACAP FOR “LE MONDE”"