How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure you would need anything so elaborate as SOF just drive a truck up and park it:

“Noting videos on social media purportedly showing Russian conscripts passed out from too much vodka, the tweet continued, “We also know that soon these ‘soldiers’ will be at the front, and with such a love for alcohol, it will be easier for them to die on our land.”

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-mocks-russia-s-partial-mobilization-on-twitter-1.6083536

Maybe it will be used by the Russian command.  It reminds me of the many testimonies of US soldiers who indicate the assaults and slaughter of soldiers of the 17.SS completely drunk during the Nordwind offensive in January 1945.

When it comes to that, it's definitely a sign that all is well with the Russians, isn't it? 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Taranis

[Haiduk]

It's claimed this is somewhere between Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers or NW from Lyman area, but still unclear - UKR forces are advancing trhough destroyed Russian vehicles aside the road

And here is outskirts of Lyman - fighters of 102nd Territorial Defense brigade (Ivano-Frankivsk oblast) after short skirmish in reeds captured some wounded Russians or mobiks. In other twitter account I've seen the info as if in this skirmish 11 enemy troopers were killed and 4 wounded were captured, but maybe this was exaggeration 

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's claimed this is somewhere between Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers or NW from Lyman area, but still unclear - UKR forces are advancing trhough destroyed Russian vehicles aside the road

And here is outskirts of Lyman - fighters of 102nd Territorial Defense brigade (Ivano-Frankivsk oblast) after short skirmis in reeds captured some wounded Russians or mobiks. In other twitter account I've seen the info as if in this skirmish 11 enemy troopers were killed and 4 wounded were captured, but maybe this was exaggeration 

 

Glory to Ukraine

Glory to the heroes

Nothing is going to convince the Russians to quit except zinc coffins, send lots.

 

[Haiduk]

The video of Rubizhe defense time - UKR BTR-3E1 of National Guard (likely 4th Rapid reactin operative brigade) fires at the enemy tank, hiding behind the corner of building

 

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[acrashb]

Apropos of a lazy Sunday afternoon, some (many) pages ago there was considerable debate about "signmyrocket.com".

Mine came through a few minutes ago:

[Cederic]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

it would take Russia longer and more hoops to get a tactical nuke sent on its way vs. ICBMs.  I'm thinking this because ICBMs are, theoretically, ready for launch at any time.  A tac nuke requires a system to get into position and the shell/missile to be transfered from a secured facility out to the launcher.  That takes time and more people.

Aircraft launched precision missiles with a tactical warhead are surely already available? Keeping aircraft on patrol above the Caspian Sea is easy enough.

Ok, it means up to half an hour for the warhead to arrive, but any target worth that escalation isn't going to be moving very fast anyway.

--

The discussions here on psyops are farcical. Political organisations cross the US and the EU have been conducting them for years, on their own populations. The military is about the only group that _don't_ have the capability.

 

[Pablius]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

22 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Elves? )

 

Expand  

When the forest starts speaking Ukrainian.

 

MACPUTLER: Bring me no more reports; let them fly all:    Till Ukranian wood remove to the Russian border,   I cannot taint with fear.   Sorry, back to lurking .

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

A T-90M sighting.

 

[Artkin]

Well that tank looks like it has a lot more power than anything else in Russian service.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

And here is outskirts of Lyman - fighters of 102nd Territorial Defense brigade (Ivano-Frankivsk oblast) after short skirmish in reeds captured some wounded Russians or mobiks. In other twitter account I've seen the info as if in this skirmish 11 enemy troopers were killed and 4 wounded were captured, but maybe this was exaggeration 

The casualty figures sounds reasonable to me.  Mobik units are more likely to be in the wrong place at the wrong than a regular unit.  Once engaged, they are less likely to take correct counter measures.  If the attacking unit is experienced and in the right place at the right time doing the right things, the fight would be over rather quickly with little left of the defending unit.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

 

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The casualty figures sounds reasonable to me.  Mobik units are more likely to be in the wrong place at the wrong than a regular unit.  Once engaged, they are less likely to take correct counter measures.  If the attacking unit is experienced and in the right place at the right time doing the right things, the fight would be over rather quickly with little left of the defending unit.

Steve

We are about to see this on the scale of battalions rather than platoons. The Russians are going to put hundreds of mobiks at a time in places they should not be, with orders they cannot possibly fulfill. The one that don't surrender or rout in time are going to get chopped to dog meat. The AFU has a very great deal to be angry about. They have very disciplined about the entire surrender/prisoner process. BUT if a bunch of drunk Russian mobiks are caught dead to rights and don't give up when given the chance, The AFU is going joyfully FFE by entire artillery battalions before they ask the bleeding remnants if they would like to reconsider.

 

Edit: And they should, because making Russian mobiks more scared of the Ukrainians than they are of their own officers is how to win this war.

Edited September 25, 2022 by dan/california

[Grigb]

Regarding broadcasting the truth to RU population (and conduction Psy-Info-Ops) there are set of issues.

First, imagine you have a flat earthers cult that kills anyone who says earth is not flat. They are conditioned to believe in a flat earth by years of constant indoctrination from childhood. It starts at school. It is unwise to expect that simple facts will undo it in days or even weeks. 

Second, you are trying to convince people that they are evil murderers because they kill innocent people for the lie about earth. That's not something they are eager to accept at all. I mean inside they can believe you are right. Publicly they will still act as if nothing has changed.  

Third, the required linguistic skill level for effective PsyOp communication is too high. It is much higher than what is normally required and as such Western Intel orgs rarely have it. For example, I monitor UK MOD Telegram channel in RU. Their RU linguists are good. Like really good. But even they still fall a little tiny bit short compared to native speakers. Unfortunately, it makes their message somewhat awkward, less serious and significantly less effective. Their messages will not establish trusts required for successful PsyOps.

Fourth, which is continuation of third - even if you have required linguistic skill (Ukrainians have it) you still need to have knowledge of the enemy minds on level that even Ukrainians do not have. Ukraine is different country with different culture. With all their knowledge of RU they still struggle to craft effective message to RU population and have hard time finding psychological weak spots that can be exploited. Effective anti-RU PsyOps are unbelievably hard even for Ukranians.

But all is not lost. I like most of Steve suggestions above - limited and targeted PsyOps aimed at driving wedge where cracks already exist will work regardless of other shortcomings. For example, Western articles that Ultranationalists not liberals are threat to Putin got RU Nats very worried. Simple western media articles managed to get under RU Nat skins. Imagine what a persistent campaign would do. 

[dan/california]

Just like this.

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1574120591073984512

We might be approaching the first REAL opposition the mobilization. Would Kadyrov commit Chechens to forcibly recruit Dagestanis? Would him trying do anything other than starting an insurgency in the Caucuses? 

 

Anybody know why this link isn't playing right?

[CHEqTRO]

 

Interesting. There is a crazy theory going around that the Russians "might" actually "lose" the annexionation referendum in Kherson in order to justify a retreat across the Dnieper, and do so "honorably". You know, as if they are following the command of the people, rather than another gesture of "goodwill". 

I find the theory interesting, and the fact that there is so limited participation might give some wings to the theory. Still, the problem with it is that then they should also techically retreat from all of the territories of the Oblast east of the Dnieper, in order to keep consistent (Althougth since when have the Russians care about coherence), which would put the AFU very close to Crimea, so thats highly unprobable.

Unless, they also fail the referendum in Zaphorizie. Who knows, maybe the russians are about to try to finally descalate and are trying to save face. We give back Zaphorizie and Kherson, and pretty please, let us keep the Donbass. And the current mobilization and nuclear threats is just they using the good old "escalate to descalate" practice of old soviet thinking.

Or maybe not. I personally think the contrary really, that escalation is far more likely, and i would not be surprised if this mobilization is not really thought to fight Ukranie, but rather wathever conventional force NATO throws at them in case they go ahead with the full declaration of war and probable release of strategic weaponry.

Still, a curios theory, thats why I decided to post it here. Any thoughts? It would definitively be a 180 turn from what most of the world thought this was going to go.

 

[Grigb]

RU comment regarding UKR forces at Belohorivka (near Lisichansk)

Quote

Ukrainians are throwing fresh forces into battle, trained by foreign instructors. They no longer have a shortage of armored vehicles. Once again, I will note the speed of the enemy's counter-battery work. In this direction, Ukrainian capabilities have increased by an order of magnitude.

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

 

Interesting. There is a crazy theory going around that the Russians "might" actually "lose" the annexionation referendum in Kherson in order to justify a retreat across the Dnieper, and do so "honorably". You know, as if they are following the command of the people, rather than another gesture of "goodwill". 

I find the theory interesting, and the fact that there is so limited participation might give some wings to the theory. Still, the problem with it is that then they should also techically retreat from all of the territories of the Oblast east of the Dnieper, in order to keep consistent (Althougth since when have the Russians care about coherence), which would put the AFU very close to Crimea, so thats highly unprobable.

Unless, they also fail the referendum in Zaphorizie. Who knows, maybe the russians are about to try to finally descalate and are trying to save face. We give back Zaphorizie and Kherson, and pretty please, let us keep the Donbass. And the current mobilization and nuclear threats is just they using the good old "escalate to descalate" practice of old soviet thinking.

Or maybe not. I personally think the contrary really, that escalation is far more likely, and i would not be surprised if this mobilization is not really thought to fight Ukranie, but rather wathever conventional force NATO throws at them in case they go ahead with the full declaration of war and probable release of strategic weaponry.

Still, a curios theory, thats why I decided to post it here. Any thoughts? It would definitively be a 180 turn from what most of the world thought this was going to go.

 

"Losing" both of them and using it as an excuse for a climb own would be the smartest thing they have done since Feb 23. No one would be more surprised than the cretins currently rigging the vote. I could see this as the one thing that might get them a meaningful change in the narrative, If they were willing to settle for the parts of the Donbas they currently hold. I also don't think they are that smart. Not unless their was something special in Putin's tea last night, and they are just holding off on the announcement.

[Grigb]

And now something completely different - here is Prigozhin at a recent Wagnerite funeral.

As you can see, he has three Stars. They are Hero of RF, Hero of DNR and Hero of LNR. These are top awards. They are like Victoria Crosses.

But the icing on the cake is that after DNR and LNR become RU territory his DNR and LNR Stars will be = to RU Star. The guy will be a triple RU Hero... 

[pavel.k]

16 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

 

Interesting. There is a crazy theory going around that the Russians "might" actually "lose" the annexionation referendum in Kherson in order to justify a retreat across the Dnieper, and do so "honorably". You know, as if they are following the command of the people, rather than another gesture of "goodwill". 

I find the theory interesting, and the fact that there is so limited participation might give some wings to the theory. Still, the problem with it is that then they should also techically retreat from all of the territories of the Oblast east of the Dnieper, in order to keep consistent (Althougth since when have the Russians care about coherence), which would put the AFU very close to Crimea, so thats highly unprobable.

Unless, they also fail the referendum in Zaphorizie. Who knows, maybe the russians are about to try to finally descalate and are trying to save face. We give back Zaphorizie and Kherson, and pretty please, let us keep the Donbass. And the current mobilization and nuclear threats is just they using the good old "escalate to descalate" practice of old soviet thinking.

Or maybe not. I personally think the contrary really, that escalation is far more likely, and i would not be surprised if this mobilization is not really thought to fight Ukranie, but rather wathever conventional force NATO throws at them in case they go ahead with the full declaration of war and probable release of strategic weaponry.

Still, a curios theory, thats why I decided to post it here. Any thoughts? It would definitively be a 180 turn from what most of the world thought this was going to go.

 

It came to my mind too that Putler can use referendums to retreat with "honor". But when mobilization was declared i refused this option.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

And now something completely different - here is Prigozhin at a recent Wagnerite funeral.

As you can see, he has three Stars. They are Hero of RF, Hero of DNR and Hero of LNR. These are top awards. They are like Victoria Crosses.

But the icing on the cake is that after DNR and LNR become RU territory his DNR and LNR Stars will be = to RU Star. The guy will be a triple RU Hero... 

A man trying to appear brave or powerful wears a chest full of medals, a man who IS brave and powerful has no need. Trying to decide where tis is on the scale?

[Zeleban]

 

[Cederic]

41 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU comment regarding UKR forces at Belohorivka (near Lisichansk)

 

Sorry, that must be fake.

It's actually right!

[Harmon Rabb]

16 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

 

TVP also recently had a segment discussing Mr.Carlson. It appears during this war Tucker is becoming famous in central in eastern Europe for all the wrong reasons.

 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Cederic said:

Sorry, that must be fake.

It's actually right!

The author must have gotten over the border into Georgia, he is less concerned he will instantly mobilized.

[Haiduk]

It's just RUMINT, but...

UKR troops as if entered to villages Iziumske and Olhivka. This is shows likely this groupling can have a task not to attack north on Borova - Svatove road, but to move east toward Makiivka village, laying on crossroads Svatove - Zarichne - Lyman and Borova - Starobilsk. Further UKR troops can advance toward Ploshchanka village to intercept the road Svatove - Kreminna.

Likely this groupling have a task to cut off Russians on line - Drobysheve - Lyman - Yampli, when other grouping, which reportedly has begun advance from Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi - Petropavlivka toward Svatiove (or Borova?) from NW.

Allegedly, UKR troops in this time again entered to SW part of Drobysheve and Lyman outskirts and fight with enemy troops. 

Russians move reinforcements there - this is reportage of DPR TV from Torske village near Zarichne, you can see combimed unit, which moves to Lyman - mainly trucks with markings of 3rd Army Corps (circle in triangle), tank with Z and truck with Z in square.

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Haiduk