How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/holding-ground-losing-war/

 

1. Most pro-Russians on the Right, like Carlson and Dreher, seem to argue mainly on isolationist / America Got Way Bigger Problems grounds, excepting a few paleos who see Russia as the Great White Hope. Ivandjiiski at ZeroHedge is, well.... res ipse loquitur.  Kunstler, well.... shrug.

2. Meanwhile, much of the Old Left blogosphere has now gone full Tankie: Greenwald, Johnstone, Mate, Varoufakis, etc.

'Old Left' news aggregator NakedCapitalism has long vanished into the Looking Glass circular firing squad too. They just cross-reference the same tiny circle of Red Pill Experts continuously, like Gorgons passing around a single (myopic) eyeball:

• - MacGregor
• - Moon Of Alabama (anonymous)
• - Scott Ritter
• - Gonzola Lira
• - Michael Hudson
• - Alexander Mercouris

....with any 'supporting data' invariably sourced via Sputnik, RT, RU twitter, etc. Or else Chicken Little defeatists like Zorn and Roepke.

Edited September 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Precisely. All this talk about collapse and uprising is wishful thinking. Military setbacks, yes. Economical crisis, yes. But nothing more. Not yet anyway. Perhaps next year, when the dying really starts. 

personally I thought the lack of McDonald's fries was gonna be the ignition point.  

My problem is I keep expecting to see a reaction based on my own perspective and bias.  Police cars getting hit with bottles and rocks, student strikes on campus...  This is like a protest over having additives in your yogurt at the all-organic store.

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, RandomCommenter said:

Man I'm sorry you had that experience. I had it too actually. And in our school the school motto was "Is fearr bás ná náire" (death is better than shame). They meant it as a nationalist thing. Those guys who died rather than submit to English rule were heros and all. But as a bullied kid it was also "so should I commit suicide now I am being bullied remorselessly and shamed every day?".

Anyway many years later and and as an American citizen as well as an Irish guy I can look back on those days as "growing pains".

Apologies to use this forum to reach out privately to Kinophile who I have been admiring from the shadows for six months (along with Steve and the Captn and Aragorn2000 and all you guys, Taranis and I am missing others).

Anyway my takeaway from today is the Azovstal defenders who have been released. It shows that we should never give up hope. What heros. I wish them many happy years ahead. 

 

 

Hear, hear! I would be very interested to hear their experiences in Russian captivily.

And I always feel sorry for people who have been bullied during their youth. Personally I haven't been, because although quite short at the time I readily used my knuckles and once starting to fight, I was too stupid to walk away from a certain and thorough beating, but I know people who have been bullied and suffered for it all of their lives. So, sorry to hear that guys. I hate bullying, ill treatment of women and other "normal"cruel behaviour and I hope you have been able to leave it behind you.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[LongLeftFlank]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

personally I thought the lack of McDonald's fries was gonna be the ignition point.  

My problem is I keep expecting to see a reaction based on my own perspective and bias.  Police cars getting hit with bottles and rocks, student strikes on campus...  This is like a protest over having additives in your yogurt at the all-organic store.

Ha ha, during the recent Philippines Presidential election, the rally for Leni Robredo (who is a great person btw) looked like nothing so much as a 'March for the Cure' in some affluent US suburb. Every marcher with a pink ribbon and a latte.

Meanwhile the vast majority for whom said latte still represents half a day's wages elected Bongbong Marcos in a landslide.

[chuckdyke]

McDonalds, KFC , Burger King are in some municipalities not permitted to operate. I live in one of them. Hope the Ukraine is not adopting some Western Institutions. Life is not perfect, but it was not meant to be. What I see of Ukrainian culture one thing the place is full of talent. 

[Battlefront.com]

I just realized what is at the core of the past few days of disputes by people engaging in discussion about Ukraine retaking the Donbas and/or Crimea.  There are three separate goals which are inextricably linked together:

1. Ukraine returns to its 1991 borders
2. nothing turns radioactive, be it a nuke plant or dropping some form of nuke ordinance
3. Russia ceases to be able to function in its traditional imperialist and genocidal form.  Not just Putin's regime, but anybody who might want to keep Russia rolling down the same path

I'm guessing that everybody that is participating in this thread, and probably the vast majority reading it in lurker mode, agree with all three of these goals.  If someone disagrees, I'm curious to know where I got it wrong.

What we're arguing about is to what degree the world works in a "fair" way and to the degree it doesn't.  Russia might not be able to get Ukraine to negotiate into giving up something, but it does have the ability to deny Ukraine at least 1 of the 3 goals above.  Namely, causing Ukraine to have a second radioactive Exclusion Zone in the heart of its agricultural lands.  And there is *NOTHING* Ukraine can do to prevent this if Russia decides to do it.  Repeat, NOTHING.

Separately, Russia has a lot of say in what happens within its borders.  Nobody, and I mean nobody, is talking about going into Russia and occupying it like Germany and Japan after WW2.  So if Russia (Putin or his successor) can figure out a way to keep things from falling apart, then guess what?  Imperialist Russia will continue to exist even if Ukraine regains its original 1991 borders, with or without nuclear irradiation.

This means Ukraine only has direct influence over 1 of its 3 goals (regaining it's 1991 territory) and Russia has some degree of veto power over 2 out of 3.

Ukraine may have to make some tough decisions about what to compromise on.  Go full guns for #1 and wind up losing #2?  Go for as much of #1 as possible without getting #2 into the mix?  Ignore #3 for now and hope that it comes about eventually through collective international action over time?

Just like Russia has lost this war due to maximalist thinking, Ukraine can lose something very important to it by adopting the same mindset.  I don't know what the right answer is, I just know that Ukraine needs to be thinking along these lines. 

Steve

[kraze]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am very concerned about any suggestion that the peoples of the Donbass or Crimea, who were separatists or even served in the LNR/DNR forces are somehow not entitled to democratic rights and freedoms as any Ukrainian citizens, not that I think that is what most of us are suggesting. 

You aren't concerned with three NATO and EU members not giving the right to vote to people who hate the country they live in - so it will be fine.

Just as it is in e.g. Lithuania - people who want to vote for Russia - may go and vote in Russia - and don't come back. Or stfu and get in line if they want to live in said country.

Some seem to be confusing "separatism" (e.g. some ethnic group wanting to be free and independent from the current country) with treason (trying to help another country occupy theirs).

Edited September 23, 2022 by kraze

[LongLeftFlank]

10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

There is no suggestion of cowardice.

I am making the suggestion!

@The_Capt

 

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

You aren't concerned with three NATO and EU members not giving the right to vote to people who hate the country they live in - so it will be fine.

Just as it is in e.g. Lithuania - people who want to vote for Russia - may go and vote in Russia - and don't come back. Or stfu and get in line if they want to live in the country.

Out of likes, but yeah.

[Battlefront.com]

As a follow up to my previous post, we must keep in mind that Ukraine can not itself knock Russia out of the imperialist games it plays.  Even if it kicks every last Russian soldier off of its 1991 territory, that doesn't mean Russia is out of the business of exporting misery to its neighbors near and far.  An outright military defeat certainly is going to make it much more likely that Russia is effectively out of it for a long time to come, but that's all.

We've all pretty much concluded that the Russian people aren't going to rise up and change things in any meaningful way.  Even if the protests increase to 1991 scale and wind up toppling Putin, the odds of it resulting in a better behaved Russia is slim.

Therefore, I put it to you all that we should not expect this war, on its own, to produce the desired effect of a non-Imperialist Russia.  That's a much bigger project and will likely take years, decades even, to happen in a way that allows us to all sleep soundly at night.

Expectations, therefore, should be adjusted to conform to reality.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just like Russia has lost this war due to maximalist thinking, Ukraine can lose something very important to it by adopting the same mindset.  I don't know what the right answer is, I just know that Ukraine needs to be thinking along these lines. 

Unconditional surrender of Russia. Not many people can see that happening. USS Ronald Reagan berthing in Sevastopol putin with his tail between his legs signing the surrender of the Russian military. I can't see that happening. Played years ago an Avalon Hill game. Objectives were. Leningrad, Moscow and Kiev. I am afraid the same applies today. The good guys got Kiev the other two maybe a few cities too far.

Edited September 23, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

I like your You Tube movies better than your posts (just kidding).

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Unconditional surrender of Russia. Not many people can see that happening. USS Ronald Reagan berthing in Sevastopol putin with his tail between his legs signing the surrender of the Russian military. I can't see that happening. 

I think the main goal to aim at, is the restoration of Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea and the creation of a military and economically VERY strong Ukraine, proud member of NATO and EU, that can take on Russia any time it choses to. A bleeding wound in the side of Mother Russia, that will only heal when left alone. All the rest is wishful thinking. Russia will never change.

With regard to 'punishing' Russia. Well, to live in such a country is punishment enough, me thinks.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

 

 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Russia will never change.

They got very good Chess Players; Ballerina's also gave very good tips for the UIT Pistol disciplines. Underestimating them is a mistake. Unfortunate they got a complete *sshole as leader. 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Unconditional surrender of Russia. Not many people can see that happening. USS Ronald Reagan berthing in Sevastopol putin with his tail between his legs signing the surrender of the Russian military. I can't see that happening. Played years ago an Avalon Hill game. Objectives were. Leningrad, Moscow and Kiev. I am afraid the same applies today. The good guys got Kiev the other two maybe a few cities too far.

There is a very tried and true "rule of three" for most things in life.  Something can be made quickly (speed), inexpensively (price), or well executed (quality).  Like it or not, you can only have two out of the three.  Quick and cheap, but not quality.  Quality and quick, but not cheap.  Inexpensive and quality, but not quick.

Ukraine needs to figure out what the choices are and consciously decide what it is most important to it and dispense with the rest.

Steve

[kraze]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

They got very good Chess Players; Ballerina's also gave very good tips for the UIT Pistol disciplines. Underestimating them is a mistake. Unfortunate they got a complete *sshole as leader. 

When every single leader in their history is an "*sshole" - maybe the problem isn't with the leader?

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Haha. Touche. 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

When every single leader in their history is an "*sshole" - maybe the problem isn't with the leader?

The Dutch and the English also thought they could plant their flag anywhere and it belonged to them. New York was swapped for Surinam. Indonesia was also horse-traded for some territories in Malaya and Sri Lanka. Locals didn't have a say. putin unfortunately for him was born two hundred years too late. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think the main goal to aim at, is the restoration of Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea

What if pushing for this results in 30,000 casualties?  What if pushing for Crimea right now results in a nuclear blight in the middle of its territory?  What if getting the Donbas saddles Ukraine with an insurgency and black hole budget to support it for the next 10 years?

These are the sorts of things Ukraine must think about.  My position, established dozens of pages ago, is that Ukraine should put its immediate focus on retaking the 2022 borders and put all thoughts of militarily taking the rest of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea on the back burner until it does.  At that time it can evaluate what the best course of action is and go from there.  With any luck there will be collapses to take advantage of.

Steve

[Combatintman]

5 hours ago, RandomCommenter said:

Now personally I believe in democracy. I want to see a pluralistic, democratic Ukraine within the EU and NATO. And I wish the EU had better tools to deal with semi-democratic regimes in the neighborhood like Hungary, Poland and the UK.

Data suggests otherwise ...

Democracy Data Explorer - Our World in Data

 

[Battlefront.com]

Deliberate?  Probably.  Claim that Russia blew up several of the refrigerated railcars full of unclaimed bodies:

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

What if pushing for this results in 30,000 casualties?  What if pushing for Crimea right now results in a nuclear blight in the middle of its territory?  What if getting the Donbas saddles Ukraine with an insurgency and black hole budget to support it for the next 10 years?

These are the sorts of things Ukraine must think about.  My position, established dozens of pages ago, is that Ukraine should put its immediate focus on retaking the 2022 borders and put all thoughts of militarily taking the rest of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea on the back burner until it does.  At that time it can evaluate what the best course of action is and go from there.  With any luck there will be collapses to take advantage of.

Steve

This war is not only a threat, but also an opportunity for Ukraine. Perhaps one that will never return. That should be carefully considered. I think Zelensky and his advisors realize this. Securing a good position for the future might even be worth 30.000 casualties, but yes, it's Russian roulette.

[LongLeftFlank]

8 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Securing a good position for the future might even be worth 30.000 casualties, but yes, it's Russian roulette.

Forward he cried, from the rear / as the front rank dieeeeeeed.....

[yes I know, Waters has totally lost his sh*t now like the rest of the Old Left. But you know....]

Edited September 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Taranis]

"Soldiers pose in front of a charred Russian tank, on the road between Kharkiv and Kupyansk, Ukraine, September 18, 2022. SAMUEL GRATACAP FOR “LE MONDE"
* seems T-72B3