How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vic4]

6 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Marioupol is faaar. I imagine that will be one of the last places to be reclaimed, given it's nearly right on top of the Russian border, and it's already pretty beat up, and is probably little importance besides being a major population center

"Current" liveuamap seems to show it at about 80-100km from the front. Considering the recent gains and momentum, was wondering if this would be at all feasible in the near future. i.e. pre Crimea or Donbas regions. Would presume the symbolic nature of the victory would carry considerable importance regardless of the state of the infrastructure. 

[chuckdyke]

More about the Bushmaster. Here a wrecked vehicle finds his place in the Australian War memorial. This type of vehicle saved an estimated 300 lives. No Australian Soldier has died inside this type of vehicle. Curious how it is doing in the Ukraine. 

 

[billbindc]

26 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

@Battlefront.com et al..

How viable is the retaking of Mariupol now?

If the UA could pull it off:

- politcal coup de gras for Putin? 

- tremendous symbolic & strategic victory for UKR = utter humiliation for RU and Nat meltdown material 

- cuts the "land bridge" decisively

Thoughts? Appreciated...

Melitopol seems like a better option in terms of space, time and what we can see of supply. It would also probably force a complete rearrangement of the supply and artillery currently defending Kharkiv from the left side of the Dnieper. But totally guessing. We have less ISR than the Kremlin does (possibly).

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

What? Please kindly provide details?

It was on the list of demands the Austrian-Hungarian Empire sent to the Serbs after Ferdinand got assassinated.  I am not sure if it was teachers or simply a change to the educational curriculum.  It wasn’t the deal breaker though, it was the demand to oversee the investigation and prosecution of the assassins, in Serbia, which was an egregious violation of Serbian sovereignty.

Of course the whole thing was a long time coming, this was just the kicker.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Add to that something else.

“For us, this defeat may prove fatal.  We need to understands this to because it might lead to the defeat of the country.”

Something we've talked a lot about here, with quite a lot of pushback against that happening.  But it seems this guy, at least, believes it is quite possible.

Steve

This is, of course, yet another 'tell' that someone is an RU nat -- thinking the war is the answer instead of the war being the problem.  No one was talking about Putin collapse or Russian empire collapse in anything like near term until this war, yet somehow they just keep doubling down.  Like w US in Vietnam, the face-saving solution (double down) is what will destroy you.  The 'cowardly' solution (going home) is what will save you. 

Like I've said a million times, the solution is to kill Putin and say it's all his fault.  Seems obvious but hey, what do I know, I'm not an RU nat.

But what if RU nat faction under some leader or junta does overthrow Putin and take power?   What happens to the war?  The threat of FSB is what keeps everyone in line right now, but what if FSB control is weaker and various districts, military units, & other groups just ignore Moscow's orders.  What happens if the fear is gone?

[billbindc]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It was on the list of demands the Austrian-Hungarian Empire sent to the Serbs after Ferdinand got assassinated.  I am not sure if it was teachers or simply a change to the educational curriculum.  It wasn’t the deal breaker though, it was the demand to oversee the investigation and prosecution of the assassins, in Serbia, which was an egregious violation of Serbian sovereignty.

Of course the whole thing was a long time coming, this was just the kicker.

Russia strongly resembles a nuclear Austro-Hungary of 1914: Discuss

<insert sarcasm emoji  here>

 

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by billbindc

[Huba]

On a lighter note - "potato masher" might've been actually useful as potato masher:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Russia strongly resembles a nuclear Austro-Hungary of 1914: Discuss

Historical analogies 'but with nukes' on this board be like:

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Ukraine is asking for more tanks, specifically from Germany. Predictably, the answer so far is "nein".

WaPo (probably paywalled)
 

Quote

Ukraine’s ability to expel Russian forces from its country as soon as possible now depends largely on Germany and its willingness to send desperately needed armor, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday.

Kyiv believes the requested heavy armor — including battle tanks and personnel carriers — could help shift that turning point into a tipping point. Ukrainian officials are now urging their Western partners to provide them with more weapons immediately.

“The faster we receive this or that weapon from Germany, the faster Germany finally breaks this feeling of closeness with Russia, the faster the war will end,” Podolyak said. He said that Ukraine is specifically asking for armored personnel vehicles and tanks to be able to support its battlefield momentum.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/13/ukraine-tanks-russia-germany-offensive/

Edited September 14, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[Billy Ringo]

13 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Ukraine is asking for more tanks, specifically from Germany. Predictably, the answer so for is "nein".

WaPo (probably paywalled)
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/13/ukraine-tanks-russia-germany-offensive/

That's a very blunt challenge to Germany--who's side are you on?  Seems to me there's more to this than just wanting tanks.

[billbindc]

Quote

People in the U.S. constantly ask me, is this the thing that finally topples Putin? Is this Ukrainian offensive, for example, that brings Putin down? How would you answer this question? And is it a stupid one?

I don’t think it’s a stupid question, but I do think it’s too early. But if the Ukrainian army continues pushing the Russian army back this successfully and beats them back from Kherson and Melitopol, then they’re well and truly ****ed. But here’s the problem: any coup needs a mechanism. You can’t just have one guy among the elites call another guy and say, Hey, let’s go slit VVP’s throat. It doesn’t work like that. When Nikita Khrushchev overthrew Lavrentiy Beria, and when Leonid Brezhnev overthrew Khrushchev, there was a mechanism and it was the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. They could say, Here is our collective decision. No such mechanism exists today. That’s the first thing.
The second thing is trust. No one in Russia trusts anyone else. Hugo Chavez could walk into his barracks and say, Comrades, let’s go take the presidential palace, and they would follow him. But no such trust exists in Russia today, where public trust is in the single digits. Putin will eventually be ousted, of course, but it will likely be by his closest circle. It will be some kind of junta, which would still be an improvement.

 

From Julia Ioffe's interview today with Evgenia Markovna Albats, the doyenne of Russian media her newsletter "Tomorrow Will Be Worse". 

[CAZmaj]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

It was on the list of demands the Austrian-Hungarian Empire sent to the Serbs after Ferdinand got assassinated.  I am not sure if it was teachers or simply a change to the educational curriculum.  It wasn’t the deal breaker though, it was the demand to oversee the investigation and prosecution of the assassins, in Serbia, which was an egregious violation of Serbian sovereignty.

Of course the whole thing was a long time coming, this was just the kicker.

Of course this forum is about Russia's aggression/war on Ukraine so let's quickly close above side issue:

IMO Austrian ultimatum "simply" demanded a change to the Serbian educational curriculum - no teachers to go to Serbia:

3. To eliminate without delay from public instruction in Serbia, everything, whether connected with the teaching corps or with the methods of teaching, that serves or may serve to nourish the propaganda against Austria-Hungary.

https://alphahistory.com/worldwar1/austro-hungarian-ultimatum-1914/

The Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to Serbia (July 1914):

Now the history of the past few years, and particularly the painful events of the 28th of June, have proved the existence of a subversive movement in Serbia, whose object it is to separate certain portions of its territory from the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy. This movement, which came into being under the very eyes of the Serbian Government, subsequently found expression outside of the territory of the Kingdom in acts of terrorism, in a number of attempts at assassination and in murders…

The Royal Serbian Government has done nothing to suppress this movement. It has tolerated the criminal activities of the various unions and associations directed against the Monarchy, the unchecked utterances of the press, the glorification of the authors of assassinations, the participation of officers and officials in subversive intrigues; it has tolerated an unhealthy propaganda in its public instruction; and it has tolerated, finally, every manifestation which could betray the people of Serbia into hatred of the Monarchy and contempt for its institutions.

This toleration of which the Royal Serbian Government was guilty, was still in evidence at that moment when the events of the twenty-eighth of June exhibited to the whole world the dreadful consequences of such tolerance…

The Imperial and Royal Government finds itself compelled to demand that the Serbian Government give official assurance that it will condemn the propaganda directed against Austria-Hungary, that is to say, the whole body of the efforts whose ultimate object it is to separate from the Monarchy territories that belong to it; and that it will obligate itself to suppress with all the means at its command this criminal and terroristic propaganda. In order to give these assurances a character of solemnity, the Royal Serbian Government will publish on the first page of its official organ of July 26/13, the following declaration:

“The Royal Serbian Government condemns the propaganda directed against Austria-Hungary, that is to say, the whole body of the efforts whose ultimate object it is to separate from the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy territories that belong to it, and it most sincerely regrets the dreadful consequences of these criminal transactions. The Royal Serbian Government regrets that Serbian officers and officials should have taken part in the above-mentioned propaganda and thus have endangered the friendly and neighbourly relations, to the cultivation of which the Royal Government had most solemnly pledged itself by its declarations of March 31, 1909. The Royal Government, which disapproves and repels every idea and every attempt to interfere in the destinies of the population of whatever portion of Austria-Hungary, regards it as its duty most expressly to call attention of the officers, officials, and the whole population of the kingdom to the fact that for the future it will proceed with the utmost rigour against any persons who shall become guilty of any such activities, activities to prevent and to suppress which, the Government will bend every effort.

This declaration shall be brought to the attention of the Royal army simultaneously by an order of the day from His Majesty the King, and by publication in the official organ of the army.

The Royal Serbian Government will furthermore pledge itself:

1. To suppress every publication which shall incite to hatred and contempt of the Monarchy and the general tendency of which shall be directed against the territorial integrity of the latter.

2. To proceed at once to the dissolution of the Narodna Odbrana to confiscate all of its means of propaganda, and in the same manner to proceed against the other unions and associations in Serbia which occupy themselves with propaganda against Austria-Hungary; the Royal Government will take such measures as are necessary to make sure that the dissolved associations may not continue their activities under other names or in other forms.

3. To eliminate without delay from public instruction in Serbia, everything, whether connected with the teaching corps or with the methods of teaching, that serves or may serve to nourish the propaganda against Austria-Hungary.

4. To remove from the military and administrative service, in general, all officers and officials who have been guilty of carrying on the propaganda against Austria-Hungary, whose names the Imperial and Royal Government reserves the right to make known to the Royal Government when communicating the material evidence now in its possession.

5. To agree to the cooperation in Serbia of the organs of the Imperial and Royal Government in the suppression of the subversive movement directed against the integrity of the Monarchy.

6. To institute a judicial inquiry against every participant in the conspiracy of the twenty-eighth of June who may be found in Serbian territory; the organs of the Imperial and Royal Government delegated for this purpose will take part in the proceedings held for this purpose.

7. To undertake with all haste the arrest of Major Voislav Tankosic and of one Milan Ciganovitch, a Serbian official, who have been compromised by the results of the inquiry.

8. By efficient measures to prevent the participation of Serbian authorities in the smuggling of weapons and explosives across the frontier; to dismiss from the service and to punish severely those members of the Frontier Service at Schabats and Losnitza who assisted the authors of the crime of Sarajevo to cross the frontier.

9. To make explanations to the Imperial and Royal Government concerning the unjustifiable utterances of high Serbian functionaries in Serbia and abroad, who, without regard for their official position, have not hesitated to express themselves in a manner hostile toward Austria-Hungary since the assassination of the twenty-eighth of June.

10. To inform the Imperial and Royal Government without delay of the execution of the measures comprised in the foregoing points.

The Imperial and Royal Government awaits the reply of the Royal Government by Saturday July 25th, 6pm at the latest.

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Of course this forum is about Russia's aggression/war on Ukraine so let's quickly close above side issue:

IMO Austrian ultimatum "simply" demanded a change to the Serbian educational curriculum - no teachers to go to Serbia:

3. To eliminate without delay from public instruction in Serbia, everything, whether connected with the teaching corps or with the methods of teaching, that serves or may serve to nourish the propaganda against Austria-Hungary.

https://alphahistory.com/worldwar1/austro-hungarian-ultimatum-1914/

The Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to Serbia (July 1914):

Now the history of the past few years, and particularly the painful events of the 28th of June, have proved the existence of a subversive movement in Serbia, whose object it is to separate certain portions of its territory from the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy. This movement, which came into being under the very eyes of the Serbian Government, subsequently found expression outside of the territory of the Kingdom in acts of terrorism, in a number of attempts at assassination and in murders…

The Royal Serbian Government has done nothing to suppress this movement. It has tolerated the criminal activities of the various unions and associations directed against the Monarchy, the unchecked utterances of the press, the glorification of the authors of assassinations, the participation of officers and officials in subversive intrigues; it has tolerated an unhealthy propaganda in its public instruction; and it has tolerated, finally, every manifestation which could betray the people of Serbia into hatred of the Monarchy and contempt for its institutions.

This toleration of which the Royal Serbian Government was guilty, was still in evidence at that moment when the events of the twenty-eighth of June exhibited to the whole world the dreadful consequences of such tolerance…

The Imperial and Royal Government finds itself compelled to demand that the Serbian Government give official assurance that it will condemn the propaganda directed against Austria-Hungary, that is to say, the whole body of the efforts whose ultimate object it is to separate from the Monarchy territories that belong to it; and that it will obligate itself to suppress with all the means at its command this criminal and terroristic propaganda. In order to give these assurances a character of solemnity, the Royal Serbian Government will publish on the first page of its official organ of July 26/13, the following declaration:

“The Royal Serbian Government condemns the propaganda directed against Austria-Hungary, that is to say, the whole body of the efforts whose ultimate object it is to separate from the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy territories that belong to it, and it most sincerely regrets the dreadful consequences of these criminal transactions. The Royal Serbian Government regrets that Serbian officers and officials should have taken part in the above-mentioned propaganda and thus have endangered the friendly and neighbourly relations, to the cultivation of which the Royal Government had most solemnly pledged itself by its declarations of March 31, 1909. The Royal Government, which disapproves and repels every idea and every attempt to interfere in the destinies of the population of whatever portion of Austria-Hungary, regards it as its duty most expressly to call attention of the officers, officials, and the whole population of the kingdom to the fact that for the future it will proceed with the utmost rigour against any persons who shall become guilty of any such activities, activities to prevent and to suppress which, the Government will bend every effort.

This declaration shall be brought to the attention of the Royal army simultaneously by an order of the day from His Majesty the King, and by publication in the official organ of the army.

The Royal Serbian Government will furthermore pledge itself:

1. To suppress every publication which shall incite to hatred and contempt of the Monarchy and the general tendency of which shall be directed against the territorial integrity of the latter.

2. To proceed at once to the dissolution of the Narodna Odbrana to confiscate all of its means of propaganda, and in the same manner to proceed against the other unions and associations in Serbia which occupy themselves with propaganda against Austria-Hungary; the Royal Government will take such measures as are necessary to make sure that the dissolved associations may not continue their activities under other names or in other forms.

3. To eliminate without delay from public instruction in Serbia, everything, whether connected with the teaching corps or with the methods of teaching, that serves or may serve to nourish the propaganda against Austria-Hungary.

4. To remove from the military and administrative service, in general, all officers and officials who have been guilty of carrying on the propaganda against Austria-Hungary, whose names the Imperial and Royal Government reserves the right to make known to the Royal Government when communicating the material evidence now in its possession.

5. To agree to the cooperation in Serbia of the organs of the Imperial and Royal Government in the suppression of the subversive movement directed against the integrity of the Monarchy.

6. To institute a judicial inquiry against every participant in the conspiracy of the twenty-eighth of June who may be found in Serbian territory; the organs of the Imperial and Royal Government delegated for this purpose will take part in the proceedings held for this purpose.

7. To undertake with all haste the arrest of Major Voislav Tankosic and of one Milan Ciganovitch, a Serbian official, who have been compromised by the results of the inquiry.

8. By efficient measures to prevent the participation of Serbian authorities in the smuggling of weapons and explosives across the frontier; to dismiss from the service and to punish severely those members of the Frontier Service at Schabats and Losnitza who assisted the authors of the crime of Sarajevo to cross the frontier.

9. To make explanations to the Imperial and Royal Government concerning the unjustifiable utterances of high Serbian functionaries in Serbia and abroad, who, without regard for their official position, have not hesitated to express themselves in a manner hostile toward Austria-Hungary since the assassination of the twenty-eighth of June.

10. To inform the Imperial and Royal Government without delay of the execution of the measures comprised in the foregoing points.

The Imperial and Royal Government awaits the reply of the Royal Government by Saturday July 25th, 6pm at the latest.

Ah, well there you go.  Looks like #6 was the dealbreaker.  However, considering that Europe had been teetering, particularly after the Balkan Wars, the whole thing was a done deal pretty much after the shots were fired in Sarajevo.  If it hadn’t been that it would have been something else.

[FancyCat]

11 hours ago, danfrodo said:

OMG, did he get the wrong script?  This dude actually said true things.  Holy moly the world is upside down.  No one even interrupted him, which is not normal for this show.  Now all the brainwashed will actually hear, on their own propaganda TV show, that UKR counteroffensive drove RU troops out of Kharkiv region and that there's massive manpower shortage.  Plus he states that mobilization would make economy worse and that there's not enough gear for the soldiers anyway.  He sound like Steve FFS.  

Apparently according to someone else I saw who tweeted on this, they generally have other opinionated people on there, so it’s not completely one sided, just enough to have someone get punched around on the show.

[Battlefront.com]

An interesting continuation of publicizing intel on Russian activities was just revealed.  The US has documented about $300 million in illicit spending by Russia to influence politics in at least a dozen countries.  This figure covers activity from fairly recently only back to 2014.  One report I read noted that in 2014 the US noticed an uptick in influence spending, most likely due to the sanctions and general negativity towards Russia after it invaded Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-russia-spent-24300m-to-covertly-influence-world-politics/ar-AA11MKwz

Steve

[Kinophile]

Per ISW, &nbsp;today:

 

Quote

The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine

Reality makes a last tilt at the Russian Propaganda windmill... 

Edited September 14, 2022 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

The USMC's fleet of M1A1 Abrams tanks was retired in 2020.  It was something over 400 tanks.

About ~320 are sitting in Anniston Army Depot in Alabama.

They have been available for immediate shipment to Ukraine since the War in Ukraine began.

These tanks should have been on a ship to Ukraine six months ago. There is no excuse whatsoever why they can't be on one by Friday. The Ukrainians have bled enough, they have done enough. They have in fact paid a higher bill in blood and treasure for the privilege of joining the western world than anyone except the South Koreans. Ship them ANY armaments we aren't actually using Let them in all the Alliances, NATO, EU, and so on. The South Koreans have worked out rather nicely. I expect the Ukrainians to do at last as well.

 

Just sent the above to my Congressman and both Senators. Copy paste and modify at will. 

[FancyCat]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The USMC's fleet of M1A1 Abrams tanks was retired in 2020.  It was something over 400 tanks.

About ~320 are sitting in Anniston Army Depot in Alabama.

They have been available for immediate shipment to Ukraine since the War in Ukraine began.

These tanks should have been on a ship to Ukraine six months ago. There is no excuse whatsoever why they can't be on one by Friday. The Ukrainians have bled enough, they have done enough. They have in fact paid a higher bill in blood and treasure for the privilege of joining the western world than anyone except the South Koreans. Ship them ANY armaments we aren't actually using Let them in all the Alliances, NATO, EU, and so on. The South Koreans have worked out rather nicely. I expect the Ukrainians to do at last as well.

 

Just sent the above to my Congressman and both Senators. Copy paste and modify at will. 

Aren’t they logistically heavy? I’m sure they are tough and have punching power but is the burden of a unit of M1s worth that armored spearhead? I do hope we could send some IFVs tho.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Melitopol seems like a better option in terms of space, time and what we can see of supply. It would also probably force a complete rearrangement of the supply and artillery currently defending Kharkiv from the left side of the Dnieper. But totally guessing. We have less ISR than the Kremlin does (possibly).

Melitopol indeed seems, just going by the map, the better target. After a breakthrough at Vasylivka, the road network seems to give more options for rapid exploitation to wherever the Ukrainians wish to go.

And boy, would it make the Russians on the east bank of the Dnipro nervous should Melitopol fall.

 

Also, Enerhodar is not too far off (well, by the new standards set this week) so might as well try and get that back before the Ruskies let that whole situation go south.

 

Some have advocated finishing up Kherson first. I disagree. That's a problem that time can solve.

[CAZmaj]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The USMC's fleet of M1A1 Abrams tanks was retired in 2020.  It was something over 400 tanks.

About ~320 are sitting in Anniston Army Depot in Alabama.

They have been available for immediate shipment to Ukraine since the War in Ukraine began.

These tanks should have been on a ship to Ukraine six months ago. There is no excuse whatsoever why they can't be on one by Friday. The Ukrainians have bled enough, they have done enough. They have in fact paid a higher bill in blood and treasure for the privilege of joining the western world than anyone except the South Koreans. Ship them ANY armaments we aren't actually using Let them in all the Alliances, NATO, EU, and so on. The South Koreans have worked out rather nicely. I expect the Ukrainians to do at last as well.

 

Just sent the above to my Congressman and both Senators. Copy paste and modify at will. 

Yes, that! I could not agree more!

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

You can’t just have one guy among the elites call another guy and say, Hey, let’s go slit VVP’s throat. It doesn’t work like that. When Nikita Khrushchev overthrew Lavrentiy Beria, and when Leonid Brezhnev overthrew Khrushchev, there was a mechanism and it was the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. They could say, Here is our collective decision. No such mechanism exists today. That’s the first thing.
The second thing is trust. No one in Russia trusts anyone else. Hugo Chavez could walk into his barracks and say, Comrades, let’s go take the presidential palace, and they would follow him. But no such trust exists in Russia today, where public trust is in the single digits. Putin will eventually be ousted, of course, but it will likely be by his closest circle. It will be some kind of junta, which would still be an improvement.

Above is a fun quote about how Putin's replacement problem from Evgenia Markovna Albats.  We've tussled with this issue... what?  About 1000 times and counting?   For some strange reason, I think I came up with a new way to frame it!

We've heard a LOT from experts that Putin has done such a great job making his rule unchallenged that there's nobody capable of toppling him.  Right?  Right.  So what happens if Putin had a REAL heart attack tomorrow?  What do they think will happen?  Does anybody seriously think that the constitutionally prescribed succession of power will be allowed to happen?  Isn't it more likely that, given the war that's going on, someone would take control and proclaim emergency powers and martial law?  Of the two I think the latter is far more likely.

If we go with a non-constitutional succession for Putin by a natural death, then might it not be that the same likely candidates that would go after the throne in that scenario might try it with an unnatural death instead?  My thinking is whomever the experts think is the most likely group to get control of the Kremlin if Putin dies a natural death are the same suspects for who might want to speed up the process.

I poked around to see what some experts might say about this and I found an interesting article about the very thing.  Posted 2 days ago:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/russia-post-putin-what-happens-if-the-president-suddenly-dies/ar-AA11Jfo8

The people interviewed for this article seem to think the constitutional process will hold.  I think it would have prior to the war, but not now.  Too much at stake, too easy an opportunity to declare a drastic action "necessary".

Steve

 

[Kinophile]

We should really give a shout out to Putin’s long term lack of strategic military vision and personal echo-chamber of "The West Are Pussies"  nonsense. 

Consider:

2014

The French were about to deliver two Mistral class AAs. These would have made the BSF a seriously dangerous expeditionary force within the Black Sea. But Putin went for the short term grab,  assumed the West would ignore/fold and that he'd still get the Mistrals.

We didn't so he didn't. 

2022

RUA invasion begins.  Where's the BSF?  Holding back because it doesn't have a proper organic and coherent amphibious assault group. It has transports, landing ships and escorts, but it doesn't have shoreline Helo CAS, floating hospitals, Amphib Assault focussed C3 nodes,  etc. The million and one things that even I, a rubber-necking civvie can see would be needed, and wrapped up in a complete, modern floating platform like a Mistral.  Mykolaiv absolutely would have fallen and possibly also Odessa.

That line, "Evil Contains The Seeds Of Its own Defeat", well, above is Exhibit #3,756 from this stupid, cruel war. 

Edited September 14, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Some have advocated finishing up Kherson first. I disagree. That's a problem that time can solve.

I agree with this completely.  Especially if there's a drive on Melitopol.  We think the Russians in Kherson are panicking now, it could be worse!  A move to Melitopol would mean they'd have to not only worry about being cut off from their lines by the Dnepr, but that they soon might have the additional worry about being cut off from Crimea.

The distance from the current frontline to Melitopol is about the same as the longest distance covered by the Kharkiv offensive so far.  Ukraine handled that just fine therefore theoretically the distance isn't a problem.

I think it all comes down to what Russia has on the ground there and if they will fight.  I really don't know.  My sense is the forces there will collapse as they did in Kharkiv, but it will be harder to get them to that point.  Hmm.  Maybe something inbetween Kharkiv and Kherson in terms of Russia's will to fight?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Yesterday's ISW report contained a paragraph that indicates the RU Nats are, indeed, a powerful force within Russian politics.  They've so far avoided consequences for their criticism because of that power, not because of some sort of benevolence by security officials.

Quote

The Kremlin has adopted narratives that echo longstanding milblogger demands and complaints, suggesting that Putin seeks to appease and win back the critical milblogger community rather than censor it. Russian milbloggers have long complained about the Russian MoD and the military high command, and now the Kremlin state media is openly expressing dissatisfaction with the progress of the war and the lack of situational awareness of events on the ground.

This seems a reasonable conclusion for ISW to draw from the tea leaves we have at our disposal.  Anybody that wonders if the RU Nats have power/influence or are just wingnuts that are tolerated should go with "power/influence" theory until disproven.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Above is a fun quote about how Putin's replacement problem from Evgenia Markovna Albats.

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

From Julia Ioffe's interview today with Evgenia Markovna Albats, the doyenne of Russian media her newsletter "Tomorrow Will Be Worse". 

"You can’t just have one guy among the elites call another guy and say, Hey, let’s go slit VVP’s throat. It doesn’t work like that."

Rats, the film version was utterly epic even though it is fiction.....

Nikita Khrushchev, y've got balls like fooking Kremlin domes....