How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Interesting story - Prosecutor office of Irkuts is trying to cancel land lease contract where 17 buildings are already built and thousands of people already live.

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Have you ordered a housing armageddon?
In Irkutsk, another scandal with the land can leave thousands of people homeless
This probably has not happened in Russia yet – 17 practically new apartment buildings, where thousands of people live, may be demolished due to the actions of the prosecutor's office. The story from Irkutsk shocks with the transcendent indifference of law enforcement officers and the impotence of residents in front of a Silovik machine. In whose interests does the prosecutor's office work and why thousands of people may lose their homes? About this in the investigation of the "Arguments of the Week".

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It seems that a large social abscess is brewing under the nose of the Governor of the Irkutsk region Igor Kobzev. The situation in Irkutsk, which is described by the Arguments of the Week, can become a trigger for a serious shake-up of the region and undermining confidence in the authorities on the eve of two serious electoral cycles.

The fact that the prosecutor's office of the Irkutsk region is the actor of the process makes the situation particularly acute. It is Prosecutor office who is seeking to invalidate the land lease agreement from 2007, on the basis of which about 17 apartment buildings were built in the former town of the Military Institute (IVVAIU). It is noteworthy that the Suvorov School is being built on the same land today — an order of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, the execution of which Governor Kobzev "saluted" [promised to build regardless of anything]. And it is also planned to build important social facilities here: two kindergartens, a school and a polyclinic.

If the lease agreement is invalidated at the request of the regional prosecutor's office, then a real collapse awaits this territory of Irkutsk. The land will go to court for a long time, and thousands of people from 17 high-rise buildings will have to prove their right to housing in the courts, as their houses will become self-building. In the worst case — to pack up and move out.

Pay attention that Prosecutor office ignored even Putin order. Strange things happen in RU lately.  

[Huba]

Various RU sources report that, including taking of Yampil by UA:

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

16 minutes ago, Huba said:

Various RU sources report that, including taking of Yampil by UA:

 

I have been waiting for these news. For sure Ukraine will want bridge heads (at least) and collapse the front all to way to Sievierodonetsk by threading the rear.

[Bulletpoint]

I read an estimate today that Russia has lost around 2200 tanks so far. Also I think I remember them having about 2500 tanks in total at the beginning of the war. So could it be that they are basically close to running out of armour at this point?

[Beleg85]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I have been waiting for these news. For sure Ukraine will want bridge heads (at least) and collapse the front all to way to Sievierodonetsk by threading the rear.

This sector of the front (East and North of Izyum) is so dynamic that I wouldn't be surprised Ukrainian units and Russian columns have meeting engagements now. One UA reporter embedded with their troops claimed thye aim/alreay are at Kreminna.

 

[Grigb]

30 minutes ago, Huba said:

Various RU sources report that, including taking of Yampil by UA:

 

If I did not screw up locations of villages the current URK pushes approximately look like this:

[Cogust]

 

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I read an estimate today that Russia has lost around 2200 tanks so far. Also I think I remember them having about 2500 tanks in total at the beginning of the war. So could it be that they are basically close to running out of armour at this point?

 

They have retrieved quite a few tanks from storage, so they are not about to run out right now.

[TheVulture]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

This sector of the front (East and North of Izyum) is so dynamic that I wouldn't be surprised Ukrainian units and Russian columns have meeting engagements now. One UA reporter embedded with their troops claimed thye aim/alreay are at Kreminna.

 

Yes, leaving aside the fact that the front lines haven't stabilised yet and the are probably contested areas as well as areas that aren't really under anyone's control - it would probably still take a few days to get reliable information on where the 'front' is right now, even though the front isn't well defined at the moment. This is very much a fog of war situation, where OSINT will probably be massively incomplete and outdated.

[kevinkin]

6 minutes ago, Cogust said:

 

 

They have retrieved quite a few tanks from storage, so they are not about to run out right now.

Even if they retrieve Georgy Zhukov, the Russians are still in a world of trouble.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Newest from War on the Rocks and Kofman

https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/ukraines-kharkhiv-operation-and-the-russian-militarys-black-week/

some interesting pointers from this:

• The Kharkov operation was wildly successful and likely also surprised Ukrainian planners
• The southern and northern operations are coordinated and interrelated, but different. Kherson is not a faint.
  • for big part Kherson OP enabled the successes of the Kharkov OP
• Threat to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk has disappeared
• Most of the personal managed to get away thanks to the total rout (still significant POWs) but extreme equipment losses
• this is not enough yet, but couple of more operations like this will make the RUS war effort untenable
• Western military district has (finally) ceased to exist
• Russian past piecemeal solutions are starting to cumulate hard. (manpower and its retention ext.)
• Ukraine now has demonstrated strategic level offensive capability and this will happen again.
  • War will now change from what it has been for past months.
  • Ukraine could press the advantage in the north or swing to a new front
  • Most likely again in the weakest spot(s) of the RUS lines.
  • UKR has the advantage of interior lines of movement. Meaning UKR moves troops from North to South in two days when it takes RUS around a week min.
  • Ukraine can keep pushing Kherson and also have another major offensive operation ongoing simultaneously.
• Smart options for Russia (Mike thinks RUS will again not choose the smart options) 
  • Smartest thing for Russia would be to retreat from the west side of Dnieper and consolidate
  • start partial mobilization with stop-loss policies. These would start bear fruit in 2023

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Yes, leaving aside the fact that the front lines haven't stabilised yet and the are probably contested areas as well as areas that aren't really under anyone's control - it would probably still take a few days to get reliable information on where the 'front' is right now, even though the front isn't well defined at the moment. This is very much a fog of war situation, where OSINT will probably be massively incomplete and outdated.

Additional factors;

1. A lot of terrain is forested. In case of running battles, terrain favours side that is lighter, more autonomic and with better morale. So not Russians.

2. Ukrainians clearly conduct disinformation campaign, curiously it seems to be targeting mainly more stable southern front (pre-planned effort but adapted to new realities?).

Edited September 12, 2022 by Beleg85

[The_MonkeyKing]

16 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

This sector of the front (East and North of Izyum) is so dynamic that I wouldn't be surprised Ukrainian units and Russian columns have meeting engagements now. One UA reporter embedded with their troops claimed thye aim/alreay are at Kreminna.

 

Indeed, one think everyone has agreed is UKR dominates meeting engagements in this conflict. 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, I'll sound like Wolski but most of those settlements were liberated long time ago, and we still don't see new major breakthroughts at Kherson. Those 500 sq. kms happen to be total area liberated from the start of offensive. I am curious how much of it is in fact true.

There are some marks that UA is putting big psyOps targeting muscovite morale, like pictures of leaflets calling to surrender and announcements of "units" reportedly negotiating giving up their weapons.

Speakin of Wolski, another discussion with colonel Lewandowski is out. There isn't anything very surprising in it, but these few data/ opinions seem interesting:

- col. estimates that thanks to the change in the frontline shape, UA will be able to free up 3 brigades that previously were used to hold the line.

- they estimate the size of uncommitted (i.e. not deployed on the frontline) UA forces at 40K men

- and thirdly, col. does not believe that RU will be able to stabilize the front along the Oskil river, even without new significant UA offensive. He thinks new defensive line will go through Svatovo and Rubizhne.

Edited September 12, 2022 by Huba

[womble]

23 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

• The Kharkov operation was wildly successful and likely also surprised Ukrainian planners

I wouldn't be surprised to find that the bolded bit is off the mark. We talk a lot here about the ISR capabilities available to the UKR staff, and I don't think they're exaggerated one little bit. I would expect that, before they launched this offensive they knew pretty much where every pair of invading boots lived, and the location and fuel status of every lump of RUS steel larger than a Lada. I would be entirely unsurprised to discover they were anticipating the possibility of such sweeping gains before the operation got the green light.

I'd be even more surprised if they were counting on such levels of success, but plans are allowed to consider more than one outcome, I believe.

[Huba]

Steve, please sit down before reading any further!

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Ukrainians crossed Seversky Donets in Bilohorivka!!!

 

[Grigb]

RU (Pegov) reports that UKR might enter Belohorivka

Map

me looking at map

 

[danfrodo]

Another September day and yet more great progress for elves against orcs.  Above Huba quotes someone saying shortening of line frees up ~3 UA brigades.  That's huge.  Shortens line for RU but I think they are not ending up w any reserves out of this 

And 18 legislative councils openly calling for Putin to step down I believe I read in post earlier.  So lots more govt officials seem to feel safe saying things that would've led to immediate imprisonment before now.  This is getting interesting.  How do they feel safe enough to do this?  Their local security is loyal, like local police?  

Putin might be physically safe behind his security apparatus, but I still wonder what happens if everyone outside the kremlin simply stops following his orders?  What if regional leaders have enough security to ward off FSB that come to arrest them?  What then Putin?  We always think of coups as a palace overthrow, but maybe it happens just by folks criticizing him and ignoring his orders and being locally powerful enough to get away with it.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

If I did not screw up locations of villages the current URK pushes approximately look like this:

Rybar claims UKR crossed the river at Zakitne settlement (it is in the middle between Ozerne and Siversk)

[Maciej Zwolinski]

20 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Another September day and yet more great progress for elves against orcs.  

Surely Ukrainians are Gondorians, living in the shadow of Mordor for years and vainly trying to wake the rest of the Free Peoples up to the threat.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Late to the party

IMHO, at current stage this is a little bit risky move for UA.  As we know UA is also heavily rely on rail network for supply and strategic maneuver. 

So cut the land bridge looks very attractive, but the problem is there will be one major rail line to support UA to make this piercing.

And most risky part is , Zaporizhzhia will be the only place to assemble a massive strike group, stockpile fuel and ammunitions.( Hulyaipole is way too close to the frontline).  Russian can still use Air launched cruiser missiles to damage UA's campaign preparation in this direction.

 

So right now the only rail line feeding both Kherson and Crimea is the Kerch bridge? Would that be in ATACMS range? If so the US should give the UA at least 2 a week from here on out.

[sburke]

Kind of off topic, but I do have one major gripe.  The F'n Russians have ruined military fiction for me.  Now every time I look at a book depicting a Russian advance all I can think of is... "yeah no way.  Too much fantasy, maybe I'll go back and just read the Silmarillion".  sigh

[Grigb]

Mashkovets about Zaporozhie -looks like all the rumors of UKR offensive at Zaporozhie is RU cover story for movement of troops for its own offensive.

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4. Despite everything that is happening on the Kherson bridgehead, as well as in the Eastern Operational Zone, the command of the enemy troops, continues measures to strengthen the Melitopol direction and its grouping operating south of Vugledar.

The Russian command, apparently, continues to be confident that the "main goal of the enemy" (i.e., the AFU) is to cut the land "Kalidor" [joke - corridor] into the Crimea and to reach Crimean isthmuses from the side...

What the hell...? Only the devil knows why they think so...

Because, objectively speaking, the AFU does not have... neither the strength nor the ability to organize another offensive on an operational scale. Moreover, [to organize offencive toward] a powerful grouping of enemy troops deployed and ready for defense. This would obviously be a rather original way of suicide.

However, the Russian command is persistent... pumps up the Melitopol and Mariupol directions with ADDITIONAL reserves. Including several BTGrs from the 6th msd of the 3rd AK. By the way, the movement by "tishkom" [secretly] by the bounds of units of the 5th CAA (at least, it is noted up to 3 BTGr), which is allegedly intended to strengthen the Mykolaiv direction, it is in this lane that clearly indicates that Melitopol and Mariupol are so "strongly" bothering the Russian command... at least more than Kherson.

The enemy has already carried out the deployment of the first echelon to the Vasilevka- Dolinka-Novoprokopovka-Tarasovka line (mainly from the 5th tbr and 37th msbr of the 36th OVA) and is preparing to deploy there, behind their "backs" of the second echelon - units of the 5th CAA and 3rd AK.

The most pressing issue, in this sense, is something else...

Is this all for what...?

For defense... or for the offensive...?

At first glance it looks like for defense. After all, in the area of the Polog and Nesteryanka, in the last week, the AFU, let's say, somewhat improved their tactical position (where exactly, of course... I won't say ...). And the pulling up by the Russian command of thr first line of reserves looks like a kind of response to this...

But, in this case, another question arises - why is there so much [troops]...? At a time when the Russians are already "cracking" in several other operational areas at once, to react to some minor tactical failures just here, and even in such an incomparable way... obviously, to put it mildly, it is impractical.

Is it possible that the Russian army has already "fallen into such incapacity" that in order to stop the advance of a pair of companies or platoons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is necessary to deploy a group of 6-8 BTGr, and in a two-echelon combat formation, Karl (???!!!). .. Or is this the case when "fear has big eyes"...?

I doubt it very much, knowing the customs prevailing in the ranks of senior officers from Russia, who are not prone to excessive reflection... I don't think that their actions were dictated by the desire to ensure "minimization of their own losses"...

 

[danfrodo]

21 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Surely Ukrainians are Gondorians, living in the shadow of Mordor for years and vainly trying to wake the rest of the Free Peoples up to the threat.

yes, thanks for the correction.  For earlier Tolkien lore, I think elves is good analogy.  But Gondorians is definitely best fit.  

So who's making predictions about where UKR strikes next?  Full speed in Kherson?  Zaporizhe?  Northern hook into Luhansk?  

[Audgisil]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So who's making predictions about where UKR strikes next?  Full speed in Kherson?  Zaporizhe?  Northern hook into Luhansk?  

The Ukrainian response to this question: "Yes."

[billbindc]