How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[acrashb]

45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

One of the best films ever (for a certain type of person).

For the right kind of person.  Highly quotable, Peter Weller absolutely owned his character  Speaking of which, "Character is what you are in the dark".  To this day if I need a bunch of random names for a project... https://www.figmentfly.com/bb/badguys3.html

 

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And this is why fully autonomous is going to happen.  EW kills the link back to operator, if the operator is onboard AI EW does not work as well.  EMP is a lot of energy to put out, and we shield everything against it based on CBRN-E doctrine.

Oh for sure.  I'm putting those ideas out there mostly because I haven't a clue how to stop an AI drone swarm

One thing we can count on is that the defense industry is going to throw everything they have into this.  Because the one that comes up with a solution first is going to be huge.  Since it's unclear what the solution is, we'll likely see a lot of creative options out there in a very short period of time.

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I honestly think the solution to UAS, is other UAS.

Possibly, and this certainly is something that would give a well resourced military a leg up on other actors.  UAS counter systems, no matter what they are, have to be produced in large numbers to matter.  That's not something just any defense budget can facilitate.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...OK, I lied.

Where are we going?????

Planet Ten!!!!

When are we going?????

Real soon!!!!

 

....BFC forum is where-a you wear your hat!

For a long time my computer password was BigBooty (followed by a number that I changed).  The right type of person knows how to correct pronounce that password out loud.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For a long time my computer password was BigBooty (followed by a number that I changed).  The right type of person knows how to correct pronounce that password out loud.

Steve

 

 

I'm your huckleberry. 

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

UAS counter systems, no matter what they are, have to be produced in large numbers to matter.  That's not something just any defense budget can facilitate.

I think that is why I think UAS doing C-UAS is the answer, it is probably the cheapest way to go.  From that video just think how much damage those 40 Cl 1 drones could do on the battlefield, either directly (precision munitions) or indirectly (ISR).

Now compare costs of those 40 drones with say one single MBT, or a suite of ground based lasers/EMP or some other large area system.  Nope, cheapest counter will be another 40 C1 drones with small caliber guns or some such that can engage and shoot down the first 40.  That is actually well within budget of many militaries.  

The expensive part is the ISR architecture but as you noted a bit back, Ukraine did this very well with what they already had as well.

[Huba]

It was an old vide, but reportedly there was some strike, theres more, info:

 

Edited September 12, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

Looks like a UKR road ambush somewhere behind the lines:

 

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think that is why I think UAS doing C-UAS is the answer, it is probably the cheapest way to go.  From that video just think how much damage those 40 Cl 1 drones could do on the battlefield, either directly (precision munitions) or indirectly (ISR).

Now compare costs of those 40 drones with say one single MBT, or a suite of ground based lasers/EMP or some other large area system.  Nope, cheapest counter will be another 40 C1 drones with small caliber guns or some such that can engage and shoot down the first 40.  That is actually well within budget of many militaries.  

The expensive part is the ISR architecture but as you noted a bit back, Ukraine did this very well with what they already had as well.

What I was getting at is for this system to be effective it has to be everywhere.  Down to the company level at a minimum on ground, every single ship at sea, and maned aircraft... oh boy, that is a whole different ball of ugh.  Aside from the fighting forces all LOCs need to be covered, all critical infrastructure also needs to be covered.

They also don't just need one set of C-UAS drones, they need many because the enemy could use 40, 100, 500, 1000 even!  Having just one batch of 40 (for example) isn't going to cut it.

This is expensive.  Though, as you say, if a nation gives up some MBTs then there's some pretty quick cost offsets.

Steve

[pavel.k]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's a ripple as far as we can tell, but even when a Tsunami is already underway that's all the person on shore gets to see.

Yup, the most significant part of this is their ire is aimed straight at Tzar.  That is skipping the Russian tradition of blaming the Boyars and leaving the Tzar untouched by criticism.  This is made even more interesting in that they are using the language of the nationalists.  Specifically the term "traitor".

Whatever is going on, it is already beyond the simple spark stage.  We're at the small brush fire analogy.  Individual arrests, people accidentally falling out of windows, etc. is not likely going to snuff out the threat.  The regime needs to prevent more of these incidents from happening BEFORE they get out into the public eye.  Putin's options for quelling general unrest are minimal and he knows it (i.e. no mobilization).  The war going poorly reduces those options down to mostly brute force responses.  And time for even that is probably running out a lot faster than we think.

Putin's past successes had a lot to do with timing and making sure his decision cycles were faster than his adversaries'.  He'd wait until the last minute to act so as to have the maximum impact and offer the other side the least amount of time to react.  The shoe is now firmly on the other foot, as they say. 

Increasingly since November the adversaries have been screwing up this tried and true methodology.  Since the war's start we've seen many incidents where the situation was horrible for Russia, but he chose to do nothing in hopes that if he just did this or that he'd have some better option to choose.  That has not worked out very well for Russia, to say the least.

Predictions. 

I think we're very quickly approaching the time when Putin's hand is forced by various internal pressures, some specific and some general.  As I do not think he will go quietly of his on volition, I think we can expect to see some sort form of martial law declared under the guise of national security related to the war.  Whatever is bubbling beneath the surface will either simmer down or it will explode in his face.

Now Putin is faced with this sort of problem on the domestic front.  His options at the moment suck.  If he waits much longer they are going to be worse.  If he doesn't act decisively now (martial law in some form) things are going to move beyond what he can handle.

Steve

How large is Wagner Group? Should Putin recall them to Moscow for protection?

[Offshoot]

2 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

How large is Wagner Group? Should Putin recall them to Moscow for protection?

Wagner is (supposedly) run by Prigozhin, who is a possible contender for the crown, so it might not be such a good idea.

[hcrof]

3 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

How large is Wagner Group? Should Putin recall them to Moscow for protection?

That would be a dangerous move - Putin does not control Wagner directly and they are as likely to turn on him than any other actor (if not more so)

[MeatEtr]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Gotta say that I rented a theater so I could watch Buckaroo Banzai on the big screen.  First saw it in 1985 or 86, but only on little screen.  One of the best films ever (for a certain type of person).

Steve

Wow I loved that movie! So weird yet so kool! Gonna have to watch again, it's been forever! 

 

Edited September 12, 2022 by MeatEtr

[kevinkin]

Sensor and networking technology has mature rapidly. The difference now for field commanders vs past fixed winged and armed chopper attacks:

--

Chief of Staff Gen. McConville said on March 11, 2021
"The Army is also looking to use long-range fires to “set up our own anti–access, area denial capability … [to] put pressure on those developing a sea-based capability.” Asked why land-based deep strike could be better than air-based, he said, “The value of land-based is it’s 24/7. So, it’s always there. It’s tough to sink some of the islands [in the Pacific Ocean], if you have the ability” to operate from such a location, given mobility capability."

--
And the race is on to develop EW solutions to shield friendlies and detect hostiles. The instantaneous "fly swatter" is unforgiving. That might include a mix of more UAVs and/or other aerial and ground bases systems with higher power lighter weight jammers and those with either passive or active detectors. Shrinking the size, weight and cost of these systems, while increasing their abilities, is where the major innovation lies. The commander will have to factor in the loss of parts of their EW bubble, but rely on engineering to keep it functional. So redundancy and unit costs need to be carefully thought out. Are we headed for an UAV race with the PLA if it's not already on?

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, hcrof said:

That would be a dangerous move - Putin does not control Wagner directly and they are as likely to turn on him than any other actor (if not more so)

Yeah, the last thing you want in a country flooded with illicit money is to be protected by a bunch of guys that are only there because of money.

The key to Putin's ability to stay in power, for now at least, rests with the various security forces.  The military is not reliable (never has been), PMCs are more likely to be a problem, and Kadyrov isn't going to do squat to help.  First signs of significant instability and Kadyrov will get all his guys home to make sure Chechnya remains his.

Steve

[Grigb]

  

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And this is why fully autonomous is going to happen.  EW kills the link back to operator, if the operator is onboard AI EW does not work as well.  EMP is a lot of energy to put out, and we shield everything against it based on CBRN-E doctrine.

I honestly think the solution to UAS, is other UAS.

Yes - drones without autonomous regime are already near the end of life due to the spread of EW. Also, autonomous drones do not emit. It means RU emission detectors cannot pick them up.

 

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I honestly think the solution to UAS, is other UAS.

Yes, urban battles require fighter drones to keep kamikaze drones at bay. But fighter drones are not very useful against Observer drones operating far from frontline with oblique spotting. 

As I wrote previously, UKR managed to proliferate Anti-drone EW weapons. RU is responding with hacking drones soft to make them less vulnerable and teaching operators how to counter EW. But it takes time. So, currently RU drone operations are severely restricted in Donbass direction. Probably this is one of the reasons RU offensive stalled there. 

However, for the time being RU switched to oblique spotting from behind frontline using powerful zoom. This is a recent video. No more flying over UKR troops. They fly far away and use zoom.

To summarize

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Something that is annoying about many of the battle maps out there is that they show the furthest extent of Russian advances and how much of it i sunder Ukrainian control.  That's good for an overview of how the war has gone so far, but it doesn't give a good picture as to how much things have changed lately.  This map from NY Times helps address that.

Blue is furthest extent of Russian advances, red is what they currently hold, and dashed red line is where things were on Sept 6:

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Sailor tanker, yes, yes, you heard right. The sailor - torpedo operator of the Baltic fleet was retrained as a tanker in a week and thrown into battle, here is the result.

This is probably one way Russia scraped up some extra manpower.  Contractors go where the MoD tells them to go, so if that means going from a torpedo room today to a tank tomorrow... that's what happens.  It is also another pool of conscripts to coerce into signing contracts.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Ok, I'll sound like Wolski but most of those settlements were liberated long time ago, and we still don't see new major breakthroughts at Kherson. Those 500 sq. kms happen to be total area liberated from the start of offensive. I am curious how much of it is in fact true.

There are some marks that UA is putting big psyOps targeting muscovite morale, like pictures of leaflets calling to surrender and announcements of "units" reportedly negotiating giving up their weapons.

[The_Capt]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Something that is annoying about many of the battle maps out there is that they show the furthest extent of Russian advances and how much of it i sunder Ukrainian control.  That's good for an overview of how the war has gone so far, but it doesn't give a good picture as to how much things have changed lately.  This map from NY Times helps address that.

Blue is furthest extent of Russian advances, red is what they currently hold, and dashed red line is where things were on Sept 6:

C.O.L.L.A.P.S.E

That is solving for f#cking offence, baby!

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm putting those ideas out there mostly because I haven't a clue how to stop an AI drone swarm

I have a feeling you defeat a drone swarm with another drone swarm.

[chrisl]

17 minutes ago, Probus said:

I have a feeling you defeat a drone swarm with another drone swarm.

With nets to tangle propellers.

[akd]

Hmm...

 

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Hmm...

 

Just saw that. Could be true, could be part of the Ukrainian information campaign. They certainly want the Ivans grimly holding on in Kherson to think nobody's coming to help them.

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Hmm...

 

Dammit Vlad...you had one job!

[Chibot Mk IX]

17 hours ago, chrisl said:

So if the UA indeed has a third full division that it's holding back, can/will they take advantage of current Russian disorganization and start a drive towards Melitopol/Mariupol to cut the "land bridge"?  Or do they have to go through the mythical 3rd Army Corps to do that?

Late to the party

IMHO, at current stage this is a little bit risky move for UA.  As we know UA is also heavily rely on rail network for supply and strategic maneuver. 

So cut the land bridge looks very attractive, but the problem is there will be one major rail line to support UA to make this piercing.

And most risky part is , Zaporizhzhia will be the only place to assemble a massive strike group, stockpile fuel and ammunitions.( Hulyaipole is way too close to the frontline).  Russian can still use Air launched cruiser missiles to damage UA's campaign preparation in this direction.