How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Offshoot]

12 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Yesterday there were rumors that a Russian Su-25 crashed. Here is confirmation

Kherson Cat thinks they might be separate incidents (yesterday was possibly a Su-24)

 

[Grigb]

Just in case - Girkin just forwarded post from Ramzai who claimed he talked with anonymous pro-Ru woman from Izum. The woman claims UKR are committing atrocities in Izum right now. FYI Ramzai is nickname of Vladislav Shurigin.

It is RU Bagdad Bob. Literally. Fabulous liar. He knows it and is proud to be such liar - lying about heinous foreigners is honor to him. Agent Murz becomes mad every time he reads Shurigin articles.

And obviously whenever you see quotes of military expert Shurigin dismiss them completely.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

 

It is RU Bagdad Bob. Literally. Fabulous liar. 

(Sorry guys, I'll stand down a bit. But the refs just write themselves...)

Edited September 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Beleg85]

"No panic" thread by this guy is enjoyable read:

 

[billbindc]

 

I'm not sure I'd call it a significant event yet in regime stability but what's clear is that these folks think something significant has happened to regime stability. We wait and watch.

[akd]

Bunch of interesting things in this:

@0:48, bunch of smaller munitions airbursting in rapid succession?  Later, strike on the bridge out of Kup’yansk.

[Grigb]

Interesting post from Agent Murz

Quote

...The struggle over who will saw [illegally spend] the state money "allocated for [development of RU] culture and spirituality" - the Russophobic fifth column [RU Liberals] or the servile-loyalist fifth wheel [Putin loyalists]. Two substances that are about equally unnecessary for the country, but critically necessary for the authorities [Kremlin] for its political theater. And we, those who are really angry, have been in somewhat different places for a long time. And our state of affairs is as it should be. Funny tanned guys with skulls and bones on chevrons, hung with weapons, are preparing to put black marks on us. [They are] Pirates probably. Or electricians [SS]. Maybe we'll kill them, maybe they'll kill us.  May it happen as it will [happen]. Everyone has a chance. According to the studio "Kyivnauchfilm". [link to song Chance from very popular among USSR kids and teens animated movie]

• Pirates or SS are Wagnerites
• Wagnerites are preparing to silence non loyal RU Nat volunteer fighters
• RU Nat volunteer fighters are fully aware of the issue. They hope to kill Wagnerites instead but only when Wagnerites start executing the order

We are facing the possibility of split among RU Nats to two factions - pro-Kremlin faction under Prigozhin and independent RU Nats under Girkin. 

For context - Putin lost reputation of main RU alfa male because he hid during Kharkiv disaster. RU Nats leaning to Wagnerites immediately turned to Prigozhin. But experienced RU Nat Volunteers never trusted Wagnerites (and Prigozhin specifically) due to their role in execution of independent L-DPR commanders.

Another fun fact is Kadyrov made a sort of critical post regarding Kharkiv disaster. As result he gained noticeable boost to his reputation (barbarian but brave and straight-talking Chechen is better than traitorous and coward RU) 

To underline it - from RU Nats we have the three most likely candidates who will attempt to grab the throne:

1. Prigozhin
2. Girkin
3. Kadyrov

[FancyCat]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I'm not sure I'd call it a significant event yet in regime stability but what's clear is that these folks think something significant has happened to regime stability. We wait and watch.

Steve, I stand corrected. Hopefully this increases. 

[Calamine Waffles]

One of the few recorded ramming attacks in armoured warfare history, apparently

[Combatintman]

UAV swarm at the US National Training Center:

https://twitter.com/NTCLead6

Good to see that the training regime is evolving.

[Grigb]

If you ever wondered how RU propaganda is going to cope with Kharkiv disaster

Quote

The battalion commander of "Veterans" explained the maneuver in the Kharkiv region

The relocation of the Kharkiv group was a measure designed to protect civilians. This explanation was made by the commander of the 60 OMSB "Veterans" Alexander Marine, whose unit has been performing combat missions in the Izyum direction for several months
, "A planned regrouping has been carried out with subsequent relocation to new more strategic positions!" the Marine wrote in the battalion's telegram channel.
The officer said that on the territory of the city of Izyum there were battalions that participated in the SMO, and the city was being destroyed by Ukrainian artillery for 5 months: schools, hospitals and kindergartens were destroyed.
Alexander the Marine explained that in such a situation, the right decision on the part of the Russian Federation was to move the battlefield from cities and settlements to forests and fields.
The battalion commander of "Veterans" clarified that he had expressed his own opinion. It is worth noting that the position was expressed by a direct participant of the events.
Now 60th OMSB performs tasks in the Izyum direction.

 

[Zeleban]

Sviatohirsk

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

UAV swarm at the US National Training Center:

https://twitter.com/NTCLead6

Good to see that the training regime is evolving.

Nice!  I was wondering when this:

Would become that.  The future if warfare is now.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

(Sorry guys, I'll stand down a bit. But the refs just write themselves...)

Gotta say that I rented a theater so I could watch Buckaroo Banzai on the big screen.  First saw it in 1985 or 86, but only on little screen.  One of the best films ever (for a certain type of person).

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

50 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

One of the few recorded ramming attacks in armoured warfare history, apparently.

...Last one for now, I promise.(But make it LOUD!)

Ivan gets *one* chance to surrender, then  chew him and spit him out.

 

Death solves all problems. No man, no  ̶p̶r̶o̶b̶l̶e̶m̶ army.

-- Some sainted ruler of the Great Russian Empire or other

Edited September 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

 

I'm not sure I'd call it a significant event yet in regime stability but what's clear is that these folks think something significant has happened to regime stability. We wait and watch.

Pretty soon we'll have enough tea leaves to make a strong cup of tea.

Another reminder about the significance... the fact this is happening AT ALL is important.  The fact that it has increased even after the first batch were arrested is highly significant.  Autocratic regimes rely upon fear to stay in power.  Insiders within the regime (yes, these people are part of the apparatus, therefore insiders) taking a bold stand in public shows the regime's grip is slipping, even if only slightly at this point.

Steve

[Huba]

Oldie but goldie. With honorable mention of Bulgaria, Denmark and Norway who didn't make it into the picture.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Newest from War on the Rocks and Kofman

https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/ukraines-kharkhiv-operation-and-the-russian-militarys-black-week/

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Pretty soon we'll have enough tea leaves to make a strong cup of tea.

Another reminder about the significance... the fact this is happening AT ALL is important.  The fact that it has increased even after the first batch were arrested is highly significant.  Autocratic regimes rely upon fear to stay in power.  Insiders within the regime (yes, these people are part of the apparatus, therefore insiders) taking a bold stand in public shows the regime's grip is slipping, even if only slightly at this point.

Steve

I was and remain somewhat skeptical of where this goes but my antennae go up when I see repetition and what looks like a broader uptake. That's obviously happening here and the FSB will have noticed with alarm. And yes, these folks are inside the game to at least some degree or are connected to those who are. And their positioning is interesting. It's not "Why did we fight in Ukraine?" it's "Who screwed up the war?". I read that insiders seeing a viable way to challenge Putin. Again, could be a ripple or the beginning of a wave. We'll see.

[Battlefront.com]

53 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

UAV swarm at the US National Training Center:

https://twitter.com/NTCLead6

Good to see that the training regime is evolving.

Just another thing for the units rotating through to complain about

I'm also glad to see this going on.  Not only to give the units there for certification a taste of drones, but also to give the US military some experience with these in near battlefield conditions.

Drone swarms show the futility of kinetic responses to individual drones.  The focus needs to be on EW or other forms of mass disruption (like airburst EMP).

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

One of the few recorded ramming attacks in armoured warfare history, apparently

I'm not seeing any ramming in this video?

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just another thing for the units rotating through to complain about

I'm also glad to see this going on.  Not only to give the units there for certification a taste of drones, but also to give the US military some experience with these in near battlefield conditions.

Drone swarms show the futility of kinetic responses to individual drones.  The focus needs to be on EW or other forms of mass disruption (like airburst EMP).

Steve

And this is why fully autonomous is going to happen.  EW kills the link back to operator, if the operator is onboard AI EW does not work as well.  EMP is a lot of energy to put out, and we shield everything against it based on CBRN-E doctrine.

I honestly think the solution to UAS, is other UAS.

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

UAV swarm at the US National Training Center:

https://twitter.com/NTCLead6

Good to see that the training regime is evolving.

Good! Though they need to evolve their tactics.

• RU uses forward spotters to report movement of drones. Drone flying not high enough (like on video) is easily audible and its direction is easy to track even at night. RU notice this drone swarm from a distance and will easily guess its direction.
• Next, RU will move anti-drone defenses to the path of the drones. This drone swarm looks impressive, but it allows RU to concentrate anti-drone defenses in one place.
• Next, they will turn on EW at least to block the control channel (I do not think they have microwave guns yet) making sure it is AI who controls the drones. AI does not do evasive maneuvers and at this altitude drones are well withing effective range of even small arms. So, even without advanced anti-drone weapons Ivan will light up the skies and eventually attrite the swarm.

And if Ivan gets air-burst munition it is game over for this swarm.

Quote

Shells for "Derivation-air defense" will allow to destroying mini- and micro-UAVs of the "Phantom-4" type
MOSCOW, December 24. /tass/. The anti-aircraft artillery complex (ZAC) "Derivation-Air defense" will allow the use of projectiles with programmable detonation to destroy micro- and mini-drones (UAVs). This was announced in an interview with the newspaper "Krasnaya Zvezda" by the head of the military air defense of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Lieutenant General Alexander Leonov.

"We are doing a lot of work to create promising means of military air defense. In terms of the development of new weapons, the creation of a 57-mm anti-aircraft artillery complex "Derivation-air defense" with a set of ammunition continues. The use of a projectile with a programmable detonation in the target area will allow hitting micro- and mini-UAVs, for example, quadrocopters of the Phantom-4 type, with one or two short bursts," Leonov said.

To nail RU US needs to go either higher and more dispersed. Or to fly lower and more compact - like bomber streams to drive them along shallow terrain features. Once inside drones can be fanned out to specific objectives.   

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I was and remain somewhat skeptical of where this goes but my antennae go up when I see repetition and what looks like a broader uptake. That's obviously happening here and the FSB will have noticed with alarm. And yes, these folks are inside the game to at least some degree or are connected to those who are. And their positioning is interesting. It's not "Why did we fight in Ukraine?" it's "Who screwed up the war?". I read that insiders seeing a viable way to challenge Putin. Again, could be a ripple or the beginning of a wave. We'll see.

It's a ripple as far as we can tell, but even when a Tsunami is already underway that's all the person on shore gets to see.

Yup, the most significant part of this is their ire is aimed straight at Tzar.  That is skipping the Russian tradition of blaming the Boyars and leaving the Tzar untouched by criticism.  This is made even more interesting in that they are using the language of the nationalists.  Specifically the term "traitor".

Whatever is going on, it is already beyond the simple spark stage.  We're at the small brush fire analogy.  Individual arrests, people accidentally falling out of windows, etc. is not likely going to snuff out the threat.  The regime needs to prevent more of these incidents from happening BEFORE they get out into the public eye.  Putin's options for quelling general unrest are minimal and he knows it (i.e. no mobilization).  The war going poorly reduces those options down to mostly brute force responses.  And time for even that is probably running out a lot faster than we think.

Putin's past successes had a lot to do with timing and making sure his decision cycles were faster than his adversaries'.  He'd wait until the last minute to act so as to have the maximum impact and offer the other side the least amount of time to react.  The shoe is now firmly on the other foot, as they say. 

Increasingly since November the adversaries have been screwing up this tried and true methodology.  Since the war's start we've seen many incidents where the situation was horrible for Russia, but he chose to do nothing in hopes that if he just did this or that he'd have some better option to choose.  That has not worked out very well for Russia, to say the least.

Predictions. 

I think we're very quickly approaching the time when Putin's hand is forced by various internal pressures, some specific and some general.  As I do not think he will go quietly of his on volition, I think we can expect to see some sort form of martial law declared under the guise of national security related to the war.  Whatever is bubbling beneath the surface will either simmer down or it will explode in his face.

Now Putin is faced with this sort of problem on the domestic front.  His options at the moment suck.  If he waits much longer they are going to be worse.  If he doesn't act decisively now (martial law in some form) things are going to move beyond what he can handle.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Gotta say that I rented a theater so I could watch Buckaroo Banzai on the big screen.  First saw it in 1985 or 86, but only on little screen.  One of the best films ever (for a certain type of person).

Steve

 

...OK, I lied.

Where are we going?????

Planet Ten!!!!

When are we going?????

Real soon!!!!

 

....BFC forum is where-a you wear your hat!

Edited September 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank