How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

11 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Everyone remembers how Red Storm Rising ended, right?

A U.S. and Soviet general met in some field and ended the fighting after the Soviet Union failed to push into Western Europe.

Been a while since I read that book and I'm not going to cheat by looking up the synopsis online.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Huba]

Just now, dan/california said:

Can we get unlimited likes, just for this week?

Out of likes, but +1!

[Hapless]

3 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

A U.S. and Soviet general shook hands in some field and ended the fighting?

Been a while since I read that book and I'm not going to cheat by looking up the synopsis online.

Ok, maybe a few pages before the actual end

[akd]

Moscow street closures are for planned celebration of Moscow founding anniversary, including a big fireworks show this evening.  No doubt the irony of this big celebration will not be lost on at least some “celebrants.”

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

30 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

 

It takes roughly about 6 months to mobilise and train men properly, so right on schedule we're seeing the ZSU committing large units of mobilised men now, 6 months after the war started.

As pointed out months ago, none of the best Ukrainian units were committed to the Severodonetsk and Bakhmut axes defensive operations en masse, even though some were known to be in the relatively quiet Kharkiv/Kherson regions.

We knew the VSRF were undermanned and having to control a frontline the distance between Moscow and Den Haag, all while attempting an assault in the Soledar direction towards Bakhmut.

Finally, the Ukrainians were telegraphing their intentions to attack at Kherson for months, which is geographically and strategically favourable for them due to the destruction of the bridges over the Dnipro river, and hence time is on their side for such an offensive and they have no need to rush.

All of this together should have suggested to people that Kherson alone could not have been the sole main effort.

Ya, the 6 month thing is to train up a civilian into someone who can fight the basics.  6 months to fill out, train, equip and integrate 3 Div-ish sized formations, let alone in a warzone while holding off RA attacks in the Donbas, is something else entirely.  Keep in mind that for at least one of those months the RA was on the doorstep of Kyviv.  The UA really accelerated things well beyond normal force generation timelines: for example, back in the Afghanistan days it took the Canadian Army 9 months to get a Brigade-like thing together...for COIN Ops, not this.  And that was out of a mostly regular force standing structure. 

And then there are the operational enablers, no one I know was thinking that the UA could pull those together and set up the architecture to coordinate two operations simultaneously.  Stuff like logistics and C4ISR can take years to pull together.

No, this one was one for the books.  How the UA did this will be interesting to unpack. 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by The_Capt

[danfrodo]

Holy moly, I go to the gym for my weekly saturday ass-whuppin' and there's 56 more posts.  This is madness.  What is going on in Moscow?????

Stepping back from the stunning operational achievement I want to think about how this was also made possible by Putin.  He specifically chose to stay in completely untenable Kherson region.  Then he chose to actually reinforce that kessel.  If he had left Kherson this Izyum disaster would not have been possible because there would've been enough troops to prevent it.  This is all possible thanks to Putin being the stupidest MF possible.  And I hope he dies today at the hands of the military he's so thoroughly betrayed.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-military-chief-limited-nuclear-war-cannot-be-ruled-out-2022-09-07/

little bit more credible when coming from the Ukrainians.

but still, I see this as non-issue. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxOO0hCCSk4&t=4s)

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Moscow street closures are for planned celebration of Moscow founding anniversary, including a big fireworks show this evening.  No doubt the irony of this big celebration will not be lost on at least some “celebrants.”

sounds like a good time for hackers to blare some UKR flags on monitors.

[Huba]

 

[Seedorf81]

Dutch newssite just now: "Ukranian paratroopers at Donetsk airport"-rumours, as well as possible Ukrainian attack in Donetsk area.

Could this be the third prong? Or fake news?

[chrisl]

20 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Can we get unlimited likes, just for this week?

I tried to like this post, but I'm out.

[Huba]

Hear hear!

 

[Kraft]

5 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Dutch newssite just now: "Ukranian paratroopers at Donetsk airport"-rumours, as well as possible Ukrainian attack in Donetsk area.

Could this be the third prong? Or fake news?

I heard that RUMINT too but as Girkin mentioned Ukrainian PsyOps increased to leverage the panic among Russian soldiers as things are falling apart. I would hold off on believing that until one of the more reputable TGs posts about it.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Kraft

[Calamine Waffles]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya, the 6 month thing is to train up a civilian into someone who can fight the basics.  6 months to fill out, train, equip and integrate 3 Div-ish sized formations, let alone in a warzone while holding off RA attacks in the Donbas, is something else entirely.  Keep in mind that for at least one of those months the RA was on the doorstep of Kyviv.  The UA really accelerated things well beyond normal force generation timelines: for example, back in the Afghanistan days it took the Canadian Army 9 months to get a Brigade-like thing together...for COIN Ops, not this.  And that was out of a mostly regular force standing structure. 

And then there are the operational enablers, no one I know was thinking that the UA could pull those together and set up the architecture to coordinate two operations simultaneously.  Stuff like logistics and C4ISR can take years to pull together.

No, this one was one for the books.  How the UA did this will be interesting to unpack.

I think what happened was they put a significant portion of the mobilised men into the existing experienced brigades, which allowed them to benefit from experience from comabt seasoned troops and get them up to speed faster. You'll note that the reserve/TDF units that were also mobilised have not fared as well in Donbas and have encountered problems due to lack of experience and training.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Oh my, here we go.

At this point more preventative than anything else.

[Huba]

Video confirmation of UA  mech driving into Luhansk oblast:

Pretty sure it's here:

48.86502351489262, 38.22897096953288

Edited September 10, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, billbindc said:

At this point more preventative than anything else.

I'm betting even if this is planned as part of celebration, Putin's sphincter is seizing up pretty tight.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I have to say what surprised me was that the UA had enough capacity and depth to pull off a double operation.  We knew they were force generating like demons but being able to assemble three Div-level/like (and where is that 3rd one btw?) formations and then support two of them at the same time is a much higher level of capability than I think anyone had reported on.  I fully expected a grind for a few weeks at Kherson and then a RA collapse there before it gets too wet - and that is very much still on the table, but to do it in two places at once!?...I will literally plotz if they pull out a third.

 

24 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Dutch newssite just now: "Ukranian paratroopers at Donetsk airport"-rumours, as well as possible Ukrainian attack in Donetsk area.

Could this be the third prong? Or fake news?

I'd bet that the third operational group has the 1st Tank Brigade as part of it and they are in that area. There are also several veteran mech brigades along that line that could complete the third group. Would Donetsk be a good third target? Or would Melitopol be better? I'd think Melitopol for the strategic picture but maybe Donetsk would be better for the political gain?

[Calamine Waffles]

@Battlefront.com re: mines
 

 

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, sburke said:

I'm betting even if this is planned as part of celebration, Putin's sphincter is seizing up pretty tight.

Well, if this were a Tom Clancy novel someone would be using this as a quick means of gaining an upper hand.  I don't think that's what's happening, but oh boy would I like it to be!

One thing that hasn't been explicitly mentioned yet is that the Tzar is now being called out by name.  That is not something that's happened before and it culturally isn't supposed to happen.  The St. Petersburg statements and the RU Nats are naming Putin as a "traitor" and calling him out very specifically.

That is a major change of attitude.  Putin probably needs to get more security for his food taster and get some more body doubles.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Thermite ammunition 

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

@Battlefront.com re: mines
 

 

Thanks!  These mine clearing guys must be happy that, for now, they probably don't have much to do.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

[chrisl]

Back to the "Is the tank dead?" question.

My answer is "No, but it depends on who has the tank and who they're fighting" and goes back to a post I made in May regarding whether modern military technology favors the defense.  Modern military tech favors the side that has it.  

If you have a bunch of tanks and you're facing an opponent who has at/over the horizon "if you can detect it it's dead" ATGM capability, the tank is effectively dead - you have to basically have infantry go through the hard way and clear everything (and really *everything*) to the range of the defender's ATGMs.

If you have tanks and all your opponent has is LOS RPGs, you can use your tanks more or less the same way you'd have used them in CMBO - combined arms infantry support role, and tank on tank in some environments.  Especially if your tanks have both modern sighting/shooting capability and modern RA and APS to defend from RPG fire and the occasional ATGM.

We've gotten to watch this in Ukraine.  On Feb 24 it was an almost symmetric technology situation: Russia and Ukraine were both equipped almost identically with old Warsaw Pact stuff and its descendants, with a big dose of modern ATGM and drone technology on the Ukraine side (some of which is Ukrainian - I saw some good ads for the Stugna-P).  Russia started with bad tactics and assumptions and was stopped quickly by a lot of 1 shot/1 kill ATGM activity, with virtually every UA squad carrying multiple modern ATGMs. Plus TB-2s with IR guided ATGMs.

Now things are turned around and Ukraine is on the attack.  Something that has stood out to me is that the Ukrainians are  still willing to ride in on top of their armor and race in on wheeled vehicles after the events of the last 6 months.  I take that to mean that while on paper Russia has ATGMs at least superficially similar to the Stugna P, in practice they're not widely distributed - certainly nothing like the proliferation of Stugna/NLAW/Javelin in the hands of the UA.  So when the UA put a dozen tanks on the front, along with a bunch of mounted infantry, they could actually execute combined arms attacks because they had confidence that they wouldn't lose all the tanks (and their riders) in the first 20 seconds.  They still have to deal with RPGs, but if they're unguided they're low accuracy at longer ranges and have to be fired from ranges where light arms/MGs can suppress the operators.

This war is really showing the relevance of asymmetries in capabilities.  It started out as close to a modern symmetric war as you could have: two former Warsaw Pact countries with essentially the same equipment and training, and really that was the situation in 2014.  Mass won in 2014.  Ukraine started breaking the symmetry in 2014 by getting western training to modernize the way they fight. They managed to contain the Donbas action and use it as a way to improve the training and experience in their of their active and reserve military.  Russia didn't.  

Fast forward to 2022, and we saw the improved strategic and tactical capabilities of Ukraine at the start, combined with the added asymmetry of 3 ATGMs for every tank in the RA, and gigabytes of ISR.  Ukrainian forces disappeared into fog and started melting the initial Russian attack.  We never really saw a lot of massed Ukrainians, but they hit the Kyiv/Kharkiv front hard enough that Russia was forced to withdraw.  And from there the asymmetries have grown - western governments developed confidence that Ukraine could win and started pouring in resources for both immediate use and long term development - material, training, ISR.  And sanctioning Russia, so the RA has become more and more desperate for equipment, falling back on older and older stuff, expanding the asymmetry in the other direction as Russian capability deteriorates.

So the tank is fine if your opponent doesn't have a bunch of modern ATGMs, and hosed if it does. So if it's UK/Sweden vs. the US, the tank is dead.  But the same is true for just about anything - does a particular capability create an asymmetric advantage?  It all depends on who is facing who.

 

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That is a major change of attitude.  Putin probably needs to get more security for his foot taster and get some more body doubles.

Steve

"I want all the widows boarded up immediately."  rumored command from Putin yesterday.  

^edit - I meant windows, maybe a Freudian slip?

Edited September 10, 2022 by sburke