How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

With the Ukraine on a leash tied to western assistance, it interesting to see if their focus will be on the destruction of Russian occupying forces first and then retaking their country's territory second. The later seems certain. So why risk failing to entrap the enemy when agreed to limits of their advance are guaranteed anyway. Have to take a closer look at the maps. Perhaps both can be achieved simultaneously. 

No need to choose between retaking territory and destroying the enemy. Capturing territory faster than the enemy can retreat from it will destroy them just fine. That's where all those POWs are coming from.

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Except what about the nukes? How the  do you deal with those? Everybody knows, or at least assumes, that the Ukraine invasion would not have happened if they had kept the nukes in 1991. That is going to be uppermost on the minds of every single mafia boss looking to move up to head of state of Inner Crapistan. Not to mention ten or 15 bad actors bidding for the bleeping things. Honestly if I was in charge of Ukraine it would have some prominence on my to do list too, absent actual NATO membership.

You are taking all the fun out of my "russian empire breaks up" fantasy.  Stop it now.  .   You with your petty details like nuclear weapons and warlords and other trivialities.

[LongLeftFlank]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Except what about the nukes? How the  do you deal with those? Everybody knows, or at least assumes, that the Ukraine invasion would not have happened if they had kept the nukes in 1991. That is going to be uppermost on the minds of every single mafia boss looking to move up to head of state of Inner Crapistan. Not to mention ten or 15 bad actors bidding for the bleeping things. Honestly if I was in charge of Ukraine it would have some prominence on my to do list too, absent actual NATO membership.

Dry on likes, but honourable mention for "Inner Crapistan"

[dan/california]

triple posted somehow

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

triple posted somehow, sorry

Edited September 10, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Raptor341 said:

Agree 100%. Only by the empire breaking up will the long term threat to Europe be reduced to acceptable levels, at least in my opinion. It’s simply too hard for most smaller nations to generate the combat power to seriously threaten anyone beyond their immediate area. 

One more medium sized question, if the Russian empire is truly coming apart the seams would we care if Ukraine acquired another oblast or five? Maybe Belgorod or Rostov on Don are suddenly overwhelmed by the urge to be run by sane people? Sane people with a proven army...

[Raptor341]

That’s a pitch - “Join us today for sane leadership and access to international markets!”

[Kinophile]

Let's play devil's advocate. 

Assum Ukraines Kharkiv/Izium attack,  which Im personally naming Operation Romperstomper, clears out Ivan from the northern border down to Lyman/Slaviansk. They've come a long way, now their own GLOCs are extended so they sensibly call a pause and,  while not digging in the whole line, certainly turn defensive. 

The Kherson op,  Operation Watermelon  (obviously) achieves its objectives and swallows the Kherson pocket, with a small but solid and well-supported bridgehead on the left bank. 

Now it's Russia's turn. 

What are their options?  What do they have left? Where could they attack that will actually mean something, operationally? What should they do (which, as we know,  they by definition of being the Russian Army,  won't do) to stabilize the situation, even temporarily? 

Assume also that retreating from Ukraine will result in unplanned auto-defenestration of whomever gives that order, and that an attack somewhere is required. Defensive stance is not an option. 

So,  what do they do?  What can they attack that can give them something,  anything to show to that cancer-riddled,  steroid-chugging, banquet-table-loving lunatic in Moscow? 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Raptor341 said:

Agree 100%. Only by the empire breaking up will the long term threat to Europe be reduced to acceptable levels, at least in my opinion. It’s simply too hard for most smaller nations to generate the combat power to seriously threaten anyone beyond their immediate area. 

One more medium sized question, if the Russian empire is truly coming apart the seams would we care if Ukraine acquired another oblast or five? Maybe Belgorod or Rostov on Don are suddenly overwhelmed by the urge to be run by sane people? Sane people with a proven army, maybe they have few nukes laying around to buy in with? Sounds nuts but these questions could be very real questions next March

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Raptor341 said:

Agree 100%. Only by the empire breaking up will the long term threat to Europe be reduced to acceptable levels, at least in my opinion. It’s simply too hard for most smaller nations to generate the combat power to seriously threaten anyone beyond their immediate area. 

One more medium sized question, if the Russian empire is truly coming apart the seams would we care if Ukraine acquired another oblast or five? Maybe Belgorod or Rostov on Don are suddenly overwhelmed by the urge to be run by sane people? Sane people with a proven army, maybe they have few nukes laying around to buy in with? Sounds nuts but these questions could be very real next March

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

I think that what it means is: some people, reasonably plugged in and informed, have decided that Putin hasn't the energy, loyalty, or bandwidth to have them killed. 

And now they are arrested.  But they weren't disappeared or suicided.  Still significant.

Five Russian officials arrested for proposing to remove Putin from power, charge him with treason | Fox News

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by acrashb

[chrisl]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Let's play devil's advocate. 

Assum Ukraines Kharkiv/Izium attack,  which Im personally naming Operation Romperstomper, clears out Ivan from the northern border down to Lyman/Slaviansk. They've come a long way, now their own GLOCs are extended so they sensibly call a pause and,  while not digging in the whole line, certainly turn defensive. 

The Kherson op,  Operation Watermelon  (obviously) achieves its objectives and swallows the Kherson pocket, with a small but solid and well-supported bridgehead on the left bank. 

Now it's Russia's turn. 

What are their options?  What do they have left? Where could they attack that will actually mean something, operationally? What should they do (which, as we know,  they by definition of being the Russian Army,  won't do) to stabilize the situation, even temporarily? 

Assume also that retreating from Ukraine will result in unplanned auto-defenestration of whomever gives that order, and that an attack somewhere is required. Defensive stance is not an option. 

So,  what do they do?  What can they attack that can give them something,  anything to show to that cancer-riddled,  steroid-chugging, banquet-table-loving lunatic in Moscow? 

 

 

Does Russia actually get any more turns to attack?  They were out of juice 2 months ago and haven't managed to really recover any capability.   The best they can do is dig in is probably dig in wherever they are and try to conserve resources.

There may not be much more arty coming - even if they can get manufacturing up to speed, they have to store it far away and truck it in in smallish lots to avoid having it all blown up before it gets to the tubes.  They're not likely to get a big resupply of newly trained men - it's getting progressively harder to recruit and they're not going to mobilize.  Tanks?  They could get some more refurbed ones out of storage, and maybe get some new ones manufactured, but all the modern bells and whistles probably depend on imports that they can't get.  

If they want to have something to show to the nutter in Moscow it's going to have to be lies made with CGI and powerpoint.

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Let's play devil's advocate. 

Assum Ukraines Kharkiv/Izium attack,  which Im personally naming Operation Romperstomper, clears out Ivan from the northern border down to Lyman/Slaviansk. They've come a long way, now their own GLOCs are extended so they sensibly call a pause and,  while not digging in the whole line, certainly turn defensive. 

The Kherson op,  Operation Watermelon  (obviously) achieves its objectives and swallows the Kherson pocket, with a small but solid and well-supported bridgehead on the left bank. 

Now it's Russia's turn. 

What are their options?  What do they have left? Where could they attack that will actually mean something, operationally? What should they do (which, as we know,  they by definition of being the Russian Army,  won't do) to stabilize the situation, even temporarily? 

Assume also that retreating from Ukraine will result in unplanned auto-defenestration of whomever gives that order, and that an attack somewhere is required. Defensive stance is not an option. 

So,  what do they do?  What can they attack that can give them something,  anything to show to that cancer-riddled,  steroid-chugging, banquet-table-loving lunatic in Moscow? 

 

 

If both pockets actually kessel then the UA will have captured or put out of action something like 25,000 Russian soldiers with their equipment, training, etc. Maybe 15% of the entire establishment at war for Putin. As we've seen, Russia is already scraping the barrel for men, artillery tubes, shells, chips, you name it. He can go for real draft and hard enlistment but he can't arm them like a modern army. He can start nuking things and drive his friends away while NATO smashes his remaining forces to pieces. Or he can sue for peace. That's about it.

[sross112]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

One more medium sized question, if the Russian empire is truly coming apart the seams would we care if Ukraine acquired another oblast or five? Maybe Belgorod or Rostov on Don are suddenly overwhelmed by the urge to be run by sane people? Sane people with a proven army...

You ok Dan? Looks like a seizure or some sort of ecstasy filled uncontrollable palsy from all the good news.  

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

You are taking all the fun out of my "russian empire breaks up" fantasy.  Stop it now.  .   You with your petty details like nuclear weapons and warlords and other trivialities.

I think you have two motivations for the Federation to break apart. The first will be seen in Georgia, Azerbaijan, etc and that is just solely for independence. The second will be the areas that the Russian people are tired of the Moscow bull****. They just want to trade, grow a better life and move on from the empire games. The second ones will be the ones that will be somewhat scary in the long run for nuclear proliferation. I doubt there are many nukes lying around in the former examples. So if for example St Petersburg decides to reincarnate Novgorod and become independent. I can see a big middle finger to the world when they are asked to give up whatever nukes they have inside their new boundaries. All they will do is point to Ukraine and say nope. The only thing that might change that would be guaranteed immediate membership in NATO. Otherwise they will want to hold onto them and I would say they have a good argument. So what does the world do if the federation fractures and lets say 3 or 4 Novgorods pop up with nukes? Give them actual membership because a treaty isn't enough or wait and gamble that they never become a rogue power? 

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Let's play devil's advocate. 

Assum Ukraines Kharkiv/Izium attack,  which Im personally naming Operation Romperstomper, clears out Ivan from the northern border down to Lyman/Slaviansk. They've come a long way, now their own GLOCs are extended so they sensibly call a pause and,  while not digging in the whole line, certainly turn defensive. 

The Kherson op,  Operation Watermelon  (obviously) achieves its objectives and swallows the Kherson pocket, with a small but solid and well-supported bridgehead on the left bank. 

Now it's Russia's turn. 

What are their options?  What do they have left? Where could they attack that will actually mean something, operationally? What should they do (which, as we know,  they by definition of being the Russian Army,  won't do) to stabilize the situation, even temporarily? 

Assume also that retreating from Ukraine will result in unplanned auto-defenestration of whomever gives that order, and that an attack somewhere is required. Defensive stance is not an option. 

So,  what do they do?  What can they attack that can give them something,  anything to show to that cancer-riddled,  steroid-chugging, banquet-table-loving lunatic in Moscow? 

 

 

I think about the only option they have is their newly formed 3rd Corps, which in reality is a quickly cobbled together reinforced division with little training and no experience. Everything else seems to be committed or already burned out. If they don't commit the 3rd piecemeal to the faltering fronts they basically have two options. They can use it to reinforce their attacks in the Donbas which would be throwing them into a meat grinder with little or no chance of anything significant or commit them in an attack northward from the Melitopol area in hopes of making gains to support the grinding in Donbas. 

I guess the only other options that I can think of to open a new area of concern for the UA would be to order their troops in Belarus or Transnistria to attack, but I really don't know if that would even distract them at this point. 

[BlackMoria]

10 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Let's play devil's advocate. 

Assum Ukraines Kharkiv/Izium attack,  which Im personally naming Operation Romperstomper, clears out Ivan from the northern border down to Lyman/Slaviansk. They've come a long way, now their own GLOCs are extended so they sensibly call a pause and,  while not digging in the whole line, certainly turn defensive. 

The Kherson op,  Operation Watermelon  (obviously) achieves its objectives and swallows the Kherson pocket, with a small but solid and well-supported bridgehead on the left bank. 

Now it's Russia's turn. 

What are their options?  What do they have left? Where could they attack that will actually mean something, operationally? What should they do (which, as we know,  they by definition of being the Russian Army,  won't do) to stabilize the situation, even temporarily? 

Assume also that retreating from Ukraine will result in unplanned auto-defenestration of whomever gives that order, and that an attack somewhere is required. Defensive stance is not an option. 

So,  what do they do?  What can they attack that can give them something,  anything to show to that cancer-riddled,  steroid-chugging, banquet-table-loving lunatic in Moscow? 

 

 

It is obvious.   Ukraine took their toys away in Kherson and Izium.  They will try to take it back.  This affront to Russian superiority cannot stand.   So like Don Quixote, they are going to tilt at those windmills again...and again....and again.

[chrisl]

1 minute ago, BlackMoria said:

It is obvious.   Ukraine took their toys away in Kherson and Izium.  They will try to take it back.  This affront to Russian superiority cannot stand.   So like Don Quixote, they are going to tilt at those windmills again...and again....and again.

But with what?  Pointy sticks?

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Interesting numbers from Khodorkovsky:

How accurate it is remains to be seen as, and this will shock you all, there's likely to be some corruption at work.

But all in all tallies pretty well with the Ukr figures. If anything, adding missing, LNR, DNR and those still to be processed, they may actually been undercounting by a little. NATO and various think tanks were low-balling the numbers by a LOT.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma

[BlackMoria]

5 minutes ago, chrisl said:

But with what?  Pointy sticks?

Quiet, knave!!!  This is not a stick but a finely crafted Lance Mark I.  Made by the finest armorers in Russia.  

Edited September 10, 2022 by BlackMoria

[danfrodo]

Out of likes, thanks for all the excellent posts today, Y'all. 

Now if you'll excuse me Rings of Power Episode 3 awaits, where I hope to see more defeated orcs than I already saw here today.

[sross112]

2 minutes ago, chrisl said:

But with what?  Pointy sticks?

And that is the next big question really. So if the UA pulls off these cauldrons and let's just say they bag 20,000+ KIA/WIA/POWs from the RA. Devastating national tragedy for Russia, right? But how do the Russian people respond? Three choices:

1. Status Quo: They don't care and just continue on as before.
2. National galvanization: "We can't let the Untermensch win!!" and lines form at the recruiting stations.
3. Protest/Rebellion/etc: "Enough!! Bring the boys home!!" Internal pressure to end the SMO.

I'm betting on number 3 but I bet it comes from Putin. He will make his play to stay in power by shifting blame and there will be a mass roundup of whoever isn't absolutely trusted. He will tell the people how they were betrayed and that he is taking steps to fix the problem people so it won't happen again. He isn't stupid and will see number 3 coming so he can sit back and let it happen or take the initiative to spin it in his favor. He will spin it.

[dan/california]

 

9 minutes ago, sross112 said:

25 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

You ok Dan? Looks like a seizure or some sort of ecstasy filled uncontrollable palsy from all the good news.  

Six months is a long time to keep winding a watch spring, something might have popped...

Pupils are are still the same size though. 

[FancyCat]

Hate to burst your bubbles but if Putin does not mobilize, the Russian people will probably not care enough to depose him. Oh sure, his popularity will drop to the low digits but unpopular rulers exist everywhere. The only threat is from a elite power shake up.

And I've given my opinion on breakup, it's a fantasy. Especially as Ukraine will not push into Russia proper so essentially the personnel part of the SMO will be the only ones to suffer even after Ukraine conquers the rest of her territory.

[dan/california]

46 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Hate to burst your bubbles but if Putin does not mobilize, the Russian people will probably not care enough to depose him. Oh sure, his popularity will drop to the low digits but unpopular rulers exist everywhere. The only threat is from a elite power shake up.

And I've given my opinion on breakup, it's a fantasy. Especially as Ukraine will not push into Russia proper so essentially the personnel part of the SMO will be the only ones to suffer even after Ukraine conquers the rest of her territory.

Why they play the game. Talking my own book here, but Putin's health is a significant extra wildcard.

[Simcoe]

2 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Interesting numbers from Khodorkovsky:

How accurate it is remains to be seen as, and this will shock you all, there's likely to be some corruption at work.

But all in all tallies pretty well with the Ukr figures. If anything, adding missing, LNR, DNR and those still to be processed, they may actually been undercounting by a little. NATO and various think tanks were low-balling the numbers by a LOT.

That's crazy. Imagine the US in Afghanistan or Iraq taking 50,000 casualties in six months. 

[Mattias]

5 hours ago, Gpig said:

Wolves in the forest. So spooky! Especially with that Raven call in the distance.

That would be Huginn or Muninn scouting for the Allfather.