How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

So it seems Russian blogger was right. Ukrianians indeed do thunder runs, but mainly in light vehicles.

I had the misfortune to run into a video last night taken from a dead or gravely wounded Ukrainian soldier.  It was of him and his squad riding in what looked to be some sort of civilian van.  Driving at high speed, happy and joking, until small arms fire shredded the van and (probably) killing everybody in it.  If anybody survived the initial barrage they were likely wounded and I don't think prospects for a wounded Ukrainian soldier surviving in this situation is very good.

A reminder that thunder runs are high risk.  When they work, they work well.  When they don't, they fail pretty spectacularly.  As with anything, singular successes or failures don't mean much on their own.  Only cumulatively do they matter. 

So far the blitzkrieg seems to be working out well.  It did with the push out of Kharkiv a many months back.  But if Russia can get enough reserves into the right places then the attack will stall out just like the previous Kharkiv advance.  However, it is likely that Ukraine will hold almost all that it gained, again just like the previous time.

Steve

[Grigb]

And RU reports that they cleared Anthill position at Pisky. Now the battle for Pisky is truly over. They started it 27 of July and ended it 8 of September, managing to walk over 3,5 km.

[akd]

32 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Might be same fight, different pov.

 

Same Humvee, but from gunner’s position instead of front passenger.

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I had the misfortune to run into a video last night taken from a dead or gravely wounded Ukrainian soldier.  It was of him and his squad riding in what looked to be some sort of civilian van.  Driving at high speed, happy and joking, until small arms fire shredded the van and (probably) killing everybody in it.  If anybody survived the initial barrage they were likely wounded and I don't think prospects for a wounded Ukrainian soldier surviving in this situation is very good.

A reminder that thunder runs are high risk.  When they work, they work well.  When they don't, they fail pretty spectacularly.  As with anything, singular successes or failures don't mean much on their own.  Only cumulatively do they matter. 

So far the blitzkrieg seems to be working out well.  It did with the push out of Kharkiv a many months back.  But if Russia can get enough reserves into the right places then the attack will stall out just like the previous Kharkiv advance.  However, it is likely that Ukraine will hold almost all that it gained, again just like the previous time.

Steve

I strongly suspect it is RU fake. Apart from my opinion one UKR soldier said unform for SF (it was claimed it is UKR SF) is not right, radio is wrong as well. Personally I believe they are too old for UKR SF and about right for RU Nat volunteers.

[Grigb]

24 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Unfortunately Dmitry map is not very detailed. Here is bit more accurate map.

RU reports RU reserves are thrown into battle here. I have gut feeling RU command decided to make decisive move here to try to save face.

[Grigb]

I am putting Balaklya to UKR.

Quote

06.09.2022 I wrote: "We ****ed up Balakleya today"  - it was on that day that the "wise leadership" decided to hand it over. And if it weren't for the stubborn SOBRs and riot police, together with 126 PON (Nazran), 11 AK and 9 BARS- this would have happened much earlier.

Kupyansk - we will also hand over within the next two days.

Everything that is happening now is the result of rose tinted glasses and castles on sand   - that were build for us and our country's leadership by our propagandists and military reporters (who are de facto accomplices of the Ukrainians).

[Grigb]

35 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Unfortunately Dmitry map is not very detailed. Here is bit more accurate map.

 

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU reports RU reserves are thrown into battle here. I have gut feeling RU command decided to make decisive move here to try to save face.

Local RU troops deny UKR penetration.

[Grigb]

UKR confirmed Ozerne is fully under UKR control

Edited September 8, 2022 by Grigb

[Beleg85]

Reportedly T-90M violently joining turret throwing contest (not 100% sure if it is indeed this model).

 

[Artkin]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Reportedly T-90M violently joining turret throwing contest (not 100% sure if it is indeed this model).

 

So much for those fancy blowout panels. 

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I strongly suspect it is RU fake. Apart from my opinion one UKR soldier said unform for SF (it was claimed it is UKR SF) is not right, radio is wrong as well. Personally I believe they are too old for UKR SF and about right for RU Nat volunteers.

I like to think it's fake, but what I saw did not look or sound fake to me.  Maybe it was real but RU instead.  Wouldn't be the first time RU Nats claimed a video of their problems was actually Ukrainian.  I can't access the video any longer to check.  Age verification requires an account and I refuse to have one

What I did find was more evidence of the fighting that is (maybe) still going on in Balakleya:

This Twitter guy is interesting.  Seems to be one of the more pragmatic of the RU Nats.  Lots of good Ukrainian footage and not always laced with idiotic statements.

Steve

[DesertFox]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Reportedly T-90M violently joining turret throwing contest (not 100% sure if it is indeed this model).

 

Any guess what hit it? Stugna-P or something else?

[Artkin]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Any guess what hit it? Stugna-P or something else?

Judging by the catostrophic detonation, I would guess Javelin. The front hull and turret is covered with frontal facing ERA which would deform the Stugna's ATGM. Also Stugna wouldnt be used in an offensive role like this. T-64's sabots nor HEAT will penetrate T-90M either. 

Even if the T-90M took a frontal hit, it has blowout panels in the rear of the turret to prevent a K-kill. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Artkin

[DesertFox]

Just now, Artkin said:

Judging by the catostrophic detonation, I would guess Javelin. The front hull and turret is covered with frontal facing ERA which would deform the Stugna's ATGM. Also Stugna wouldnt be used in an offensive role like this. T-64's sabots nor HEAT will penetrate T-90M either. 

Even if the T-90M took a frontal hit, it has blowout panels in the rear of the turret to prevent a K-kill. 

Thanks! 

[akd]

9 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Judging by the catostrophic detonation, I would guess Javelin. The front hull and turret is covered with frontal facing ERA which would deform the Stugna's ATGM. Also Stugna wouldnt be used in an offensive role like this. T-64's sabots nor HEAT will penetrate T-90M either. 

Even if the T-90M took a frontal hit, it has blowout panels in the rear of the turret to prevent a K-kill. 

It gets hit in side by something coming in from left that passes below the gun barrel. My guess is Stugna-P or other tandem ATGM.

T-90M does not have separated ammo and blow-out panels for main reloader carousel.  It only has a separated turret bustle compartment for a small amount of additional ammo for reloads out of combat (can only be accessed externally).

1.

2.

3. Warhead detonation and something odd appearing further back from tank (missile body? some result of ERA?)

Edited September 8, 2022 by akd

[Beleg85]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I like to think it's fake, but what I saw did not look or sound fake to me.  Maybe it was real but RU instead.  Wouldn't be the first time RU Nats claimed a video of their problems was actually Ukrainian.  I can't access the video any longer to check.  Age verification requires an account and I refuse to have one

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1567925336754593794

Probably this one (not posting thumbnail).

[Artkin]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

It gets hit in side by something coming in from left that passes below the gun barrel.

T-90M does not have separated ammo and blow-out panels for main reloader carousel.  It only has a separated turret bustle compartment for a small amount of additional ammo for reloads out of combat (can only be accessed externally).

I didnt know it could only be accessed internally. Thats crazy. I knew the carousel still contained ammo, but I didnt know it was unable to access the ammo rack. Wow that seems pretty pointless then. Might as well just keep ammo on the rear deck. 

Also on further inspection I think I found the penetrator, which exploded a few meters before the tank. Is that how tandem charges function? I thought it had to impact first. 

 

[Letter from Prague]

8 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU generals experienced severe butthurt looking at depth of UKR penetration 

I know it is kind of childish, but the formulation really made me laugh out loud for the first time in a ****ty day.

[Beleg85]

Longer clip with the same tank:

https://twitter.com/zloneversleep/status/1567835206211588096

 

 

[Artkin]

It's one thing to hit a tank with an atgm. It's another hitting a Russian T-90 with a lower than usual silhouette. It's an even greater challenge skimming an atgm above the ground and striking the side armor of an already very short tank. Impressive stuff. 

[akd]

5 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I didnt know it could only be accessed internally. Thats crazy. I knew the carousel still contained ammo, but I didnt know it was unable to access the ammo rack. Wow that seems pretty pointless then. Might as well just keep ammo on the rear deck. 

Also on further inspection I think I found the penetrator, which exploded a few meters before the tank. Is that how tandem charges function? I thought it had to impact first. 

 

Something flies under barrel closer to tank in frame before this. I added screens in my post above.

[Artkin]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

Something flies under barrel closer to tank in frame before this. I added screens in my post above.

It looked like the item in the 3rd image exploded, so not sure what I'm looking at either

[danfrodo]

I think the #1 objective now is to bag the RU units in the Izyum pocket.  Which means must hold the northern side of the UKR salient, w the eastern side protected by the wide river.  UKR salient will face attacks from RU Izyum forces from the south but this can be mitigated by UKR forces from outside attacking into the southern side of the RU pocket (Dovhenke-to-Izyum direction).   This attack from the south already appears to be happening.  But it has to go through woods and then Izyum, so could be advantageous for the defender.  

Hopefully the RU counterattacks will be piecemeal and easily ambushed.  For RU to do normal RU kind of attack would take a week as they gather arty, ammo, forces, etc.  In a week the Izyum folks will be very short supply.  Looks like one bridge going from east to west side of river still under RU control, but quite a messy route to get there.  

[Vanir Ausf B]

Russians need to play more Combat Mission. Anyone who has played Black Sea or Cold War knows that when a tank fires it can't sit there admiring the result. You gotta MOVE!

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

we uneducmacated folks would call that paralysis.  The Russian dilemma is they do have a military option. Run like hell.  Unfortunately, it isn't politically acceptable (or culturally apparently).  I am sure the generals are praying for General mud now but i am not so sure that won't make things worse for them.  It certainly won't affect UA artillery.

The question now is when does this military debacle start weakening the rotten foundations of the Russian federation.  It certainly isn't inspiring anyone else to see Russia as a viable partner either economic or military.

 

How long before little green men with Hanzi writing on their uniforms start showing up in the Russian far east?

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

So it seems Russian blogger was right. Ukrianians indeed do thunder runs, but mainly in light vehicles.

Nice, nice...

You have to be pretty sure you are exploiting and not fighting.

1 hour ago, Bufo said:

Deputies in St. Petersburg suggest State Duma charge Putin with high treason

Oh goody!

1 hour ago, sburke said:

did anyone else hearing that creaking noise?  The floorboards seem to be a little loose too.

That wasn't a floorboard that was the hull planking, and the pump is busted, and there is a storm blowing up.

 

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by dan/california