How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ew. Fair enough. He is definitely not a healthy human being, but otoh the creep does not seem to be known for throwing this kind of histrionics....

The Führer "suddenly got up, and becoming very nervous, walked up and down... suddenly he stopped in the middle of the room and stood there staring. His voice was blurred, and his behavior that of a completely abnormal person. He spoke in staccato phrases: 'If there should be war, then I shall build U-boats, build U-boats, U-boats, U-boats, U-boats'...then he pulled himself together, raised his voice as though addressing a large audience and shrieked: 'I shall build airplanes, build airplanes, airplanes, airplanes, and I shall annihilate my enemies!'  He seemed more like a phantom than a real person. I stared in amazement and turne to see how Goring was reacting but he did not turn a hair."

Anyone who hears differently of course, please do speak up. Civilisation could depend on it.

P.S.  And yes, Putin does in fact give speeches. But they aren't exactly ones that whip mobs into a frenzy...

https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/vladimirputin7theasterneconomicforum.htm

Yup, excellent posts to sum up of Putin.

Being rational does not exclude paranoias, even severe. By comparision Stalin was also sane, cold calculating and vey cautious in international politics, yet his suspition reached sky-high levels (and probably served him well from personal security standpoint). And there are of course problems with cultural psychology, both at ruler and subjects sides- Russians have simply different metrics as to value of human life, meaning of suffering etc.

So while you are right about nuclear weapons, he still has other WMD. Till he can, he will try to keep current equilibrium of power in Russia, as it generally suits him. But I am inclined to think he can purge a lot of people inside his kingdom if need be.

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Beleg85

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

RU generals experienced severe butthurt looking at depth of UKR penetration and announced from now on they are going to do the same

 

1918 tactics with 1915-trained soldiers are going to be fun to watch.

[LongLeftFlank]

1. Another video for the future scenario and mapmaking files. Hostomel.

2.  Pimp my ride, Varangian edition.

3. Reaching out and touching someone....

4.  A tank vs tank kinetic kill?  Pretty rare in this war, at least captured on drone camera...

 

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

 

 

[Huba]

The difference in a nutshell.

Meanwhile, the same Romanov_92 just wrote that Shevchenkove is already taken (was defended by 100 VDV soldiers) and Ukrainians are 2km from Kupyansk.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

31 minutes ago, cyrano01 said:

Hell-Fire, did these people not go to staff college.

Well, RU military education system (created in USSR) has issues. Let me tell you an example:

This is Konstantin Stepanishchev

He is a graduate of the Suvorov military school - he is by default elite of RU officer corp.

In 2013 he was assigned to command 23rd Moto Rifle Brigade. And in 2014 he was sent to unofficially command 4th Brigade of Luhansk People Militia under nickname Almaz. 

He commanded until one fateful day:

Quote

“Granite": – The losses were suffered by those units that moved out on the orders of the higher command. Are you aware of Almaz, the commander of the brigade?

V. F.: – No.

G.: – Two days ago, the recon [units] of the brigade under the command of the Orel broke into the headquarters and shot the brigade commander [Almaz] in the leg. The brigade commander has now been taken to Moscow. He is undergoing treatment there. As far as we know, according to the acting commander “Bison”, he will remain disabled – he can walk, but he will limp. The bullet completely shattered his hip bone. What the future fate of the “Almaz" I do not know.

V. F.: – And what is it, was there a conflict?

G.: – Yes, the conflict occurred on the ground that, firstly, the brigade's recon [unit] provided full information on the area to which we were moving - about minefields, about fortified areas, about 20 self–propelled guns located behind Annovka. They have a whole fortified area there, consisting of ... self-propelled guns, plus they are covered it by an armored group, armored personnel carriers, Bucephalus [UKR APC] and tanks, ... a person. He [recon chief] fully provided that it is not worth going there and [you] must not [go there], [it will result in many] deaths. To which Almaz simply closed his eyes [ignored], pushed tanks without BC (ammunition) there. They were told that you were moving out, some for exercises, some for repairs. Accordingly, they did not even have bullets for machine guns, not to mention shells in guns. They were moved to positions together with support vehicles with ammo, together with medics, together with kitchens, together with personnel in the Urals [trucks]. When we reached the point of contact with the enemy, not knowing that the enemy is there [sic]. That is, the data of brigade recon was simply not provided to us. They wanted to take it in a rush. Accordingly, heavy fire was opened on us from mortars, from Grads and other AGS mounts, ATGMs, etc. As a result, we had to retreat. Then I found out from the recon [unit], and the company commander found out that we were riding through a minefield that had been pre-registered and was mined. The recon reported it. Accordingly, people were sent, a lot of people were put down, and recon [unit]on this basis came to the headquarters and shot our brigade commander in the leg.

Q. F: [They] did the right thing.

You might think this is the most important part of the story, but it is not. The most important part is:

1. After this epic debacle he got rank of General Majour
2. Some say he even got top award Hero of RF
3. And he attended RU elite Academy of General Staff 

Let me summarize. This clown is elite of RU officer Corps and RU army sees no issues with him.

[chuckdyke]

Just an interesting video, something to share need how they manufacture bombs for their drones.

 

[Huba]

I'll be starting to sketch the "I told you so!" post 

 

[Grigb]

32 minutes ago, Huba said:

The difference in a nutshell.

Meanwhile, the same Romanov_92 just wrote that Shevchenkove is already taken (was defended by 100 VDV soldiers) and Ukrainians are 2km from Kupyansk.

Yes! here is map for it

As you can see from the road map the western roads to Izum are already cut off.

[UPDATE] Other RU claim schedchenkove is not taken. there is fighting there.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Grigb

[LongLeftFlank]

47 minutes ago, Huba said:

Shevchenkove is already taken (was defended by 100 VDV soldiers) and Ukrainians are 2km from Kupyansk.

 

EDIT:  Ninjaed by @Grigb

 

....Gentle reminder from DefMon3 why Kupiansk matters...

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Grigb]

Confirmation - UKR are close to Kupyansk

[UPDATE] RU claim it is UKR recon parties at Hrushivka. 

[UPDATE] UKR unofficial confirmation Volokhiv Yar under UKR control.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Grigb

[Huba]

UA GS indirectly confirms that too - Kupyansk is about 50km from UA starting positions. So, let's discuss what happens next?

- Kupyansk is indefensible for Russians, or at least the main part of the city on the right bank of Oskil. There is only one road bridge (perhaps a pontoon one too). I very much doubt Ukrainians will be able to cross the river straight away.

- It would be logical to turn south along the river, to secure remaining crossing and ultimately link with forces from Slovyansk

- meanwhile, we could expect intensive fights in forest north of Svatohirsk. If UA manages to advance towards the Oskil dam, the encirclement of Izyum group will be complete. But even if they don't, moving all the forces through one narrow road under artillery fire won't be fun.

- I wonder if Ukrainians will be bold enough to try to go north towards Russian border straight away? If Russians indeed collapsed, I'd say they should.

 

[Grigb]

Just a small note that UKR are already within arty range of RU rail road station.  It is not enough for RU to hold UKR now. They have to counter-attack and push UKR back.

 

[Huba]

 

Just now, Grigb said:

Just a small note that UKR are already within arty range of RU rail road station.  It is not enough for RU to hold UKR now. They have to counter-attack and push UKR back.

 

They will have to attack from the north, with LOCs directly from Russia. New UA positions are nicely shielded from both flanks by the rivers, Russians will have to attack them frontally, and that is only when they get their sh*t together, which might take some time. Plus, mobiks from Donbas won't do here, and any actual Russians forces from Kherson will take forever to move there. All that is missing from the picture is Kerch bridge going down, and Russians are completely toast.

Oh, and there is another strike at Saki reportedly:

 

[Thomm]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Just a small note that UKR are already within arty range of RU rail road station.  It is not enough for RU to hold UKR now. They have to counter-attack and push UKR back.

I am wondering: Suppose Ukraine takes back her territory. What will keep the Russians from shelling Ukrainian territory from their side for decades to come? Only Ukraine counter-battery fire, right? Is this what the future will look like? Eternal cross-border arty/drone exchanges? Or will the Russians indeed give up, eventually.

[Battlefront.com]

Good way to start my day

As discussed a couple of pages ago, and reminded by a Tweet last page, Ukraine can "afford" to do these sorts of attacks, Russia can not.  Never could.

Russia needs to stabilize this situation immediately and then counter attack.  Time for resetting the battlefield to a more favorable state is running out.  The more ground Ukraine takes, the more Russia has to do before General Mud comes into play.

The Russian post about mimicking Ukrainian tactics is funny.  Russia already tried it many times and they did not have the infantry to do it.  They bypassed Ukrainian positions only to find that their LOCs were cut and then they became the isolated pockets, not the Ukrainians.  There's absolutely no way they can do better now with their units beat to Hell.

Let's say Russia does scrape enough units to stabilize the front.  Let's also presume that Ukraine runs out of steam. Then what?  Russia will move forward and either use the slow method (blast everything to China and then advance) or will attempt the faster one they always fail at.  If they try the former they won't regain much ground before mud season, but they will lose a lot of men and expend huge quantities of artillery capacity.  If they try the latter, they'll get cut to pieces and lose a lot of men without gaining much ground at all.  My guess is they'll try both, because when it's a losing strategy the Russians seem to love exploring all forms of defeat.

Now, about that report from Russian source about Ukraine relocating forces from Kherson.  I can see that being smart, especially if the fighting in Kherson is far harder than we think it is (and we think it's hard).  As we've said over and over again, the Russians in Kherson aren't capable of doing anything offensive and struggle to defend.  Putin isn't willing to admit defeat, therefore they likely won't be withdrawn even if it suddenly became viable without turning into a rout (fat chance of that).

However, all the reasons to keep pressing in Kherson now are still valid.  I don't think Ukraine will slow or stop it's attacks there unless they see them as unproductive.  So far that does not seem to be the case.

No, the better idea about those supposed forces coming to Kharkiv by rail is something like the 62nd Mech Brigade that is way to the rear in reserve.

BTW, the Ukrainian units just disappeared from MilitaryLand.  Intel blackout or just a glitch?

Steve

[Grigb]

RU claim that south of izum the situation is difficult. Looks like there is a recon battle going on there.  

[LongLeftFlank]

So about that gas Putin lately shut off to Europe....

But that's ok, I hear the Russians are great at laying imaginary pipelines....

 

 

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As discussed a couple of pages ago, and reminded by a Tweet last page, Ukraine can "afford" to do these sorts of attacks, Russia can not.  Never could.

Russia had one shot at this sort of approach and they blew it in about 72 hours back in Feb.  They had enough horsepower to attempt 5 major axis of advance that got very good penetration, just went nowhere meaningful.  They did not figure on this weird dispersed hybrid omni-defence Ukraine put up, which eroded their axis in about a month.  I think estimates of just how broken the RA was after Ph I were low-balling significantly because the RA never was capable of more than single a axis mass pressure after that down in the Donbas.  My guess is that they got so badly mauled in Ph I that single axis 100m at a time was all they could do...while some in the west freaked out and treated like some sort of "turning point".

Now in Ph III, I would not get too focused on where the main effort is, or is not, at this point because the main effort is likely wherever things are working.  This is brilliant stuff the UA is doing, really professional work.  I was impressed at Kherson as they had linked deep strike with a tactical attrition approach (fog v snow) that is clearly making gains.  Then they had enough in the tank to do a simultaneous attack back at Kharkov all the way on the other side of the line.  Both attacks threaten to bag/cut off large quantities of RA and have possibly gripped the Russians in what I refer to as a null decision space.  The RA has a dilemma that it cannot likely solve - its capabilities are too shot up, its logistics hammered, its C2 is divided and uncoordinated, and its ISR is last gen.  So how does the RA solve a two front attack?  It likely doesn't and just digs in and holds on and does local flailing - no decision is a decision.

This means the UA can shift the main effort based on conditions it has set.  It has all the ISR and can see the RA stress in high resolution so it can bounce between the two poles with transportation infrastructure that still works (another complete Russian strategic failure in pre-conditions setting) and hit the RA where it "ain't good" to largest effect.  If they do this right they may bagging both operational objectives.  Tempo and timing on this are brilliant, they have some real talent in the planning backfield on this one.  The RA is getting bounced around like a ball between cat paws, which causes enormous stress to their entire system, which was not world class to start with.  The fact that the UA had the depth to even try a competent double simultaneous operation is a clear sign they are damned healthy.

Mud starts in Oct-Nov?  So they have at least a month to play this game out, I expect that the RA system will buckle somewhere by then.  I swear to gawd if the UA now pulls another rabbit out of the hat and drives right up the middle and takes Melitopol this thing might be "over by Xmas" - but I really try to avoid saying that phrase as it has a lot of bad historical baggage.  My guess is that they will not, but will continue to hit lateral LOCs as the RA flails around trying to play Dutch Boy to stop the bleeding.

I can only hope this shuts up the "Ukraine is doomed" crowd for a good long time.  Broken, barely holding on militaries do not wage operations like this - they behave much more like the RA in response to them.     

[Huba]

Ukrainian flag over administration building in central Balaklya:

 

[Grigb]

UKR unofficial confirmation - Schevchenkove is taken

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

Ukrainian flag over administration building in central Balaklya:

 

And map

I would say UKR are pushing from south as well, and RU probably already retreated yesterday to the eastern part. There are local roads they could use to escape. 

[Grigb]

UKR published video from Stary karavan

 

 

I am to the fridge for my Victory schkalik. If you see later, I start mumbling some BS, you know what happened. 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I am to the fridge for my Victory schkalik. If you see later, I start mumbling some BS, you know what happened. 

Na zdrowie! I'll wait till I see a picture of Ukrainian tank at the bank of Oskil reservoir. So hopefully till the evening 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Taranis said:

The problem is that there are fewer washing machines when you go around a city 

This might be a real problem for an army that seems too literally be motivated/paid by looting, and even less pleasant activities. There is no reason to bypass a town and give the second echelon the privilege of sacking it. Seriously, not joking, the Mongols were better led and disciplined, at least at the peak of their power. They wouldn't take the place apart until they were told too.