How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Holien]

16 minutes ago, kraze said:

Very brutally and violently.

Hi to help me understand can you kindly put a bit more detail into this?

I thought he stopped the Russian forces from getting involved in many external situations. 

[Grossman]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

By your logic nobody would ever try to unseat a dangerous dictator from within.  And yet coups are routine for authoritarian states, including Putin's regime.  Many are not successful, which underscores my point that coup plotters are risk takers.  Often bad ones.

The mistake you are making is you are applying too much logic, not enough emotion and fanaticism to your equation.  Add to that ambition, hubris, naivete, and old fashioned stupidity. This is the same mix of things which allowed Russia to launch this suicidal war instead of concluding "wow. Ukraine's a pretty tough nut to crack.  I guess we shouldn't invade it".

I've described the mindset of the RU Nats many times... they believe their entire way or life is about to end.  Everything that they believe, everything they know, is (in their minds) on the line.  So far you have not disputed this, yet so far you'ave not addressed what you think these people will do.  Sit on their hands as Putin destroys all of their hopes and dreams?

I doubt his security is as good as you think.  My proof?  It's Russians providing his security

I think you also underestimate the chances of someone with insider knowledge of Putin's movements would sell him out for a bank deposit or because they are sympathetic to the cause.  It doesn't even necessarily take anybody from his inner circle.  Russian OPSEC is notoriously sloppy, so I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities for someone looking for them.

A lot of assumptions about how great Putin's security is.  I say again, this is Russia with Russians providing security.  I bet there's holes in there in his security you can drive a Lada through.  The only reason why a violent attempt on his life (as far as we know) hasn't been attempted is because until recently there wasn't a reason to.

As I keep saying over and over again... things have changed.  The Fatherland is nearing its ultimate destruction because national mobilization and martial law are not being put into action.  There is no more time to waste.  Someone has to act and act NOW.  Maximum force is the only solution.

That is where the RU Nats are headed if they haven't already gotten that that point.

That would help, but it doesn't have to be some big guy to do it.  A cook, the person who schedules his foot massages... whatever.  It is impossible for someone this big to not broadcast his movements well ahead of time.  Many of the RU Nats have skills to accumulate and leverage this sort of information.

Again, this is Russia, one of the most corrupt countries in the world.  It is safer to assume that the RU Nats have ways of gaining access to information than to assume they don't.

Historically, we're talking 1917 and 1991 sorts of stress.  For events like this, coups happened 100% of the time.

Of course they shouldn't.  That would be dumb.  But if they haven't cased out some contingency plans in case Putin is deposed, that would also be dumb.  Very dumb.  Putin is going to die at some point and we're likely going to find out about it after, not before.

Steve

Steve. Putin was doomed to failure from the outset, given the scale of the mission in Ukraine, the poor resourcing, planning and execution of the attack, coupled with poor intelligence, faced with an adversary determined to fight.  The battle now in the Kremlin is between the "liberals" on the one side, the Nats on the other. Putin is in the middle, but his power has waned due to the failures, so he remains there " at pleasure" of the competing forces, who are prepared to see how things go for now on the battlefield. Note Putin cannot declare a general mobilisation as this would upset the liberal base in Moscow and St Petersburg. He has backed off nuclear threats for the same reason. If there is an "accident" in the Zaporizhzhia, this could spell his end also, hence he has allowed in part a nuclear inspection, although the military were no doubt opposed. The military is a declining force in the Kremlin, and judging from the success of the Ukrainians, losing a fair part of its officer corp. So it's finely balanced. The Ukrainians appear to be attacking on 3 fronts, Kherson, Izium, and Kharviv, using attritional tactics to seize ground before the rasputitsa sets in. Ukriane is in this for the long haul. With lines then established it will be up to the Russians for the next chapter.  Time is not on the Russian side. If there is a significant reversal on the battlefield it would speed up resolution in the Kremlin.

[Haiduk]

Nova Kakhovka this night. Cameraman says "this is market area" - detonations and two huge fireballs at the end with powerfull shockwave hit, crashing the windows

Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia oblast. Next ammo dump destroyed

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Holien said:

Hi to help me understand can you kindly put a bit more detail into this?

I thought he stopped the Russian forces from getting involved in many external situations. 

He didn't. As a kid I witnessed the brutal beat downs of local pro-Ukrainian protests in 1990 by the "OMOH", also due to living next to the central square of my city where they tended to happen. Almost got caught in one of those with my mom. It also kinda contributed to my outlook on these things since. I mean when you are 5 and see a trolleybus driver block the street and go on a roof with a big Ukrainian flag, as the crowd is resisting the "riot police" - it lives an impression for life.

Later in life I also learned that nothing really changed in regards to Ukraine during his rule - people still went to jail for supporting independence, many didn't return and never witnessed it happen just a few years later.

Bonus is that Gorbachev also held a "referendum" to save USSR, where he expected local "general secretaries" of his to give him very positive results - but only 6 agreed and gave him "70%+ people want to remain in USSR" results. That included Ukraine as well (russian propagandists now use this as another "reason" to "cancel" our independence). Other "gensecs" just knew better where the wind was blowing, so to speak.

And in Lithuania Gorbachev even tried to quell the resistance by actually ordering shooting of protesters (probably wanted to gauge if he can do the same in much bigger countries without consequence). That didn't go well thankfully.

It's also why I wrote here about that good old russian "liberal" trick of "hey West, look, have Perestroika OK? You let us kill people now OK?" a few pages back.

Edited August 31, 2022 by kraze

[Zeleban]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

He was certainly not behind the emergence of modern Ukraine. He was actively fighting it. Very brutally and violently.

 

he was definitely behind the collapse of the USSR

[kraze]

58 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

he was definitely behind the collapse of the USSR

Nope. People fighting for freedom were. Fighting against him among other things. He just so happened to be the emperor of USSR then.

He's as much behind the collapse of USSR as Hitler is behind collapse of Nazi Germany. If you mean it that way - then sure.

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Неа. Люди боролись за свободу. Борьба с ним среди прочего. Так получилось, что он тогда был императором СССР.

Он так же стоит за развалом СССР, как Гитлер за развалом нацистской Германии. Если вы это имеете в виду - тогда конечно.

 

people fought for freedom under Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev and others, but they were able to win only under Gorbachev. The victory was made possible thanks to his policy

[kraze]

38 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

people fought for freedom under Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev and others, but they were able to win only under Gorbachev. The victory was made possible thanks to his policy

No. The victory was made possible ALSO because USSR became weakened by its extreme corruption and constant deaths of emperors, one after the other. Gorbachov just got "lucky" to be "young" enough after non-stop deaths of his predecessors due to old age. But those deaths caused huge shifts among power blocks inside the party because those blocks were gaining and losing power at random - resulting in chaos and opportunities arising locally due to it.

It just so happened that Ukrainians, among other people, managed to exploit the weakness of the empire.

Gorbachov was just an absolutely random guy, completely inconsequential. Collapse was set in stone in about 1979-1980. But he tried to prevent it. Lots of people died all around USSR due to his orders as he blindly tried to save the empire.

Edited August 31, 2022 by kraze

[Grigb]

As per our previous discussions today RU miliary expert Murakhovsky wrote:

Quote

Now comes the moment when artillery barrels fail due to natural wear and tear. This is treated in the field by repair with the replacement of barrels. They have different service lives, usually in the range of 2000-5000 shots. The more powerful the weapon, the shorter the service life.

From the context it is not hard data from the frontlines but his theoretical calculations. But it was reposted by fighter Tatarsky. The beginning of Aug Tatarsky wrote that it would be the issue later this month (obviously based on his observations of RU arty operations).  

[Grigb]

Returning back to my explanation of how RU propaganda works - you need to divide it by 10 not 2 to get closer to truth.

RU MOD declared that UKR suffered 1200 killed. RU Nats discussed it and said - OK, it is inflated but if we divide it by 2 then it would be 500. Big losses! Next reports came from frontlines saying FFS stop insulting with these numbers those who are fighting BTW some of our guys are running away. Smart propagandist Rybar got the message and voila 200 killed.

But today official number is 1700 killed. This is how RU Command and RU citizens view the war - they are winning.

[Grigb]

Small update regarding Pisky - RU took second (southern) bridge of Bridge Republic. The video of close fights most likely was from there. Main bridge and Seeds stations stand. Anthill situation is not clear but looks like RU partly overran western part and are trying to advance to Vodyane-Opytne.

[Grigb]

Getting back to Ru propaganda - you will see stories that RU pushed back UKR forces from previously captured positions. However, this is what RU troops say:

Quote

I talked to many commanders, asked them to take me to places with the burned-out AFU vehicles. "No problem," they say, "but they are all in no man's land or on the enemy's side, they say, take a copter, we'll show you where to fly. The only exception is in the area of the bridgehead near Andriivka, the AFU is being fought/pushed out there, it will be possible to go there later.

Conclusion - where RU was pushed from previous occupied territories, they were not able to mount any counter-attack and recapture lost lands.  RU counter-attacks are just arty fire and observation of UKR main forces moving back in to cover. RU interpreted it as untermensh khokhols are running away. 

 

[Grigb]

News from St.Petersburg

Quote

Smolny [Government building] sabotages the creation of St. Petersburg volunteer battalions.

For the second month in St. Petersburg, people are being recruited into three volunteer battalions: Neva, Kronstadt and Pavlovsk. But despite the promises of good salaries, bonuses and work in not the most dangerous places, only about a hundred people were recruited during all this time.

According to the Kommersant newspaper, over 40 volunteer units have been formed in Russia in recent weeks to participate in a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. Most of them have already started training and service. But in St. Petersburg, the well working mechanism failed. There are few who go to battalions.

According to sources in military enlistment offices, as well as in the city administration, the reason lies not in the unwillingness of volunteers to participate in a special operation, but in the fact that the city authorities are actively sabotaging the recruitment of battalions.

 

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

Gorbachov was just an absolutely random guy, completely inconsequential. Collapse was set in stone in about 1979-1980. But he tried to prevent it. Lots of people died all around USSR due to his orders as he blindly tried to save the empire.

Life is full of random events and so every leader of every state is in some way just some random guy.

A different random guy, from the hardliner faction for instance, could have come to the conclusion that if collapse is sure to happen in the future because of ongoing decline, let's start WW3 now, while there may still be a chance of winning. Or he could have prevented the peaceful collapse of the Berlin Wall. Both possibilities were quite real and not just something from a Tom Clancy novel. That things were more bloody in other regions of the Soviet Empire (and that yet another random guy could have handled that better) doesn't mean there couldn't have been even more bloodshed. And I am grateful Gorbachev chose to not have more where others quite possibly would have.

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Butschi
missing word

[Beleg85]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 So far you have not disputed this, yet so far you'ave not addressed what you think these people will do.  Sit on their hands as Putin destroys all of their hopes and dreams?

Not the first time in their careers. Russian nationalistic circles are very accustomed to this kind of treatment from Kremlin. They were always just tools for power, not the opposite.

You in turn probably underestimate fear the security apparatus may cause in people's hearts and simple conformism of regime servants...Russia does not have especially rich tradition of low- and mid-level groups taking on central power. Now I don't say it is impossible, just less likely than you present here.

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The mistake you are making is you are applying too much logic, not enough emotion and fanaticism to your equation.  Add to that ambition, hubris, naivete, and old fashioned stupidity. This is the same mix of things which allowed Russia to launch this suicidal war instead of concluding "wow. Ukraine's a pretty tough nut to crack.  I guess we shouldn't invade it".

I've described the mindset of the RU Nats many times... they believe their entire way or life is about to end.  Everything that they believe, everything they know, is (in their minds) on the line.

Oh, I am fully aware of all those factors. I just don't think that our countless discussions about supposed enormus presence of Russian nationalists within power apparatus bring any conclusive results; if so, I would like to finally see some proofs. Because that would be trully enormous change in Putin's system of power and massive headache for western intelligence agencies. @Grigbexcellent translations gives us a lot of insight into how low-level (and maybe several mid-level) guys may think. But for now they are mostly useful tools for Kremlin.

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I doubt his security is as good as you think.  My proof?  It's Russians providing his security

I think you also underestimate the chances of someone with insider knowledge of Putin's movements would sell him out for a bank deposit or because they are sympathetic to the cause.  It doesn't even necessarily take anybody from his inner circle.  Russian OPSEC is notoriously sloppy, so I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities for someone looking for them.

By applying the same logic to every Russian structure ("everything in Russia is made from sticks and moss joined with cord") we shouldn't even talk about Kremlin and war, but care mostly about those guys:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Rocket_Forces

The thing is Russian power structures varies. Not every one is rotten with corruption, inneffective to the point of riddicule and full of goofs- if that would be the case, we would long time ago probably die in nuclear fallout.

Russian military and security structures suck at many levels. But things they were relatively good (or rather "effects-driven") at were:

1. Usually intelligence gathering, corrupting foreigners by various means and keeping wide net of informants domestically. Generally stuff demanding absolutelly darwinian way of thinking about human issues, born from character of society itself and reinforced by mafia-styled governance.

2. Keeping massive nuclear arsenal. We could argue they would be much less than optimally effective in case of nuclear war, but still they didn't fail at security procedures in some spectacular ways thus far. Nor we did observe a nightmarish scenario of some terrorist buying (or stealing) part of their arsenal. Btw. if you are right about Russian nats being so desparate and influential, we should be bat**** scarred they may try to provoke true nuclear incident withinn RVSN are of competence much more than them trying to topple Putin himself.

3.Protecting Putin. I explained my thoughts about this system before, so not sense in repeating them; I don't see here any arguments presented against it other than "they are Russians". Sure somebody may be bought- that is why system is multi-layered and checked by autonomous agencies. So far it worked. It may not in the future (tensions are arguably much higher, but also defence probably much more on guard) but it is pure speculation.

Now I don't think it is impossible to organize a conspiracy; in fact the probable cases of such failed attempts from the past reinforce the fact that Putin's security apparatus is  effective at least at protecting him (and itself). And again, I am not interested in assasination attempts that fails; only successfull ones can bring serious change in geopolitical situation.

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

As I keep saying over and over again... things have changed.  The Fatherland is nearing its ultimate destruction because national mobilization and martial law are not being put into action.  There is no more time to waste.  Someone has to act and act NOW.  Maximum force is the only solution.

Not the first time in history of Russia when people idly see things falling apart before their eyes...we discussed previously about fatalism, did we?

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Historically, we're talking 1917 and 1991 sorts of stress.  For events like this, coups happened 100% of the time.

As to the levels of stress within system fully agree. But effects may be different; Putin's regime is much better protected and coherent than sloppy tsarists; 1991 is even more different as system of power was much more collective.

10 hours ago, dan/california said:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746 A podcast on this very subject, in great detail. I recommend it highly. He has several books about modern Russia as well.

Thanks, I know the podcast and definitelly recommend to others as well. Galeotti was wrong from time to time (he was the one who is credited with invention of "Gerasimov doctrine")but he has good sense on Russia.

10 hours ago, dan/california said:

Any system with that many bodies has a weakness, it isn't like anybody in the Russian system has a moral aversion to a better offer. More than one Roman emperor found that his throne had been auctioned by his own body guards, or taken by the head of the Praetorian Guard. Putin seems very dependent on the Chechens. That is a both a large weakness in and of itself, and engenders a great deal of resentment a great deal of resentment in the rest of the entourage.

Putin has no strictly speaking Chechen security now; Chechens may act as his oprichniks when somebody may need to be intimidated, killed or building blown off, but not as security guards. In the future it may change, of course, but we are still far from that.

10 hours ago, dan/california said:

Additional thought after reading Steve's post; I will bet my house the Russian Nats HATE the Chechens.

No necessarly; nationalists are not some unified front. Many neo-nazi types certainly do, as well as part of  common "conservatives". But some others, like pan-eurasianists and crucially hawks at Kremlin actually reinforce Russian diversity. For them, it is sign of Russia being imperial power, just like British Empire in the past (note another interesting common Russo-British thrope  ). And Chechens are  respected in society that value machismo; to defeat them and force into your servants rised Russian self-esteem a lot.

Now most security apparatus and military hates Kadyrov, that is well known fact. But they are different than nationalists.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Not the first time in their careers. Russian nationalistic circles are very accustomed to this kind of treatment from Kremlin.

They are not accustomed to Russia being on the brink of total collapse at the hands of üntermensch.  Context is critical here and you don't seem to be adjusting your viewpoint to match what is currently going on within Russia.  What has been normal for 20+ years of Putin's regime is not as relevant today as it was yesterday and the day before that.  The situation has fundamentally changed.  Logically, the structures based on the old order will change as well.  It's the way things work in all aspects of Human life and even physics.  Russia is not an exception.

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

You in turn probably underestimate fear the security apparatus may cause in people's hearts and simple conformism of regime servants...Russia does not have especially rich tradition of low- and mid-level groups taking on central power. Now I don't say it is impossible, just less likely than you present here.

I do not underestimate the fear of the security apparatus at all.  It is that fear that has allowed Putin to survive this long.  What I am saying is at some point in an autocratic regime's life, the fear of consequences for action is overridden by the perceived benefits of action. 

Relevant case in point is Ukrainians battled Stalin's NKVD for 10 years in open warfare, despite knowing exactly what the NKVD would do to them, their loved ones, and any innocents the state decided to target in retaliation.  As bad as Putin's security apparatus is, it's like a small town constabulary compared to the NKVD.  Fanaticism to a nationalist cause overcame those fears.

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Oh, I am fully aware of all those factors. I just don't think that our countless discussions about supposed enormus presence of Russian nationalists within power apparatus bring any conclusive results; if so, I would like to finally see some proofs.

We have seen a significant change in how the RU Nats are behaving.  This is a tiny window on what they are doing offline.  They are plotting to overthrow Putin, you can count on that.  How well it is being planned, how broad the support is, we won't know until something happens that we can observe and draw conclusions from.  Until then, I do not expect to know much more than we already know.  Conspiracies against autocratic regimes don't tend to issue press releases before they act

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

3.Protecting Putin. I explained my thoughts about this system before, so not sense in repeating them; I don't see here any arguments presented against it other than "they are Russians". Sure somebody may be bought- that is why system is multi-layered and checked by autonomous agencies. So far it worked.

You are trying to prove a negative, which doesn't work.  I am saying that the primary reason Putin's security apparatus has worked is because there's never been a serious challenge to it.  Just like Putin's military machine looked super duper huge awesome mega fearful right up until the moment it was tested.  I'm not saying that Putin's security services are as inept, but I think it's safe to assume they aren't as good as Putin would like everybody to think they are.

It also has to be remembered that Putin's security services (generally, not his personal detail) have a track record of failure to note.  Failed assassinations, failed coup plots in other countries, whatever the Hell happened with the leadup to this war, etc.  More recently we have a probable failure of the FSB in regards to Dugina's assassination and the idiocy in Albania.  Nope, sorry.  I don't see any reason to think Putin's security systems are exempt from the problems that plague everything else in Russia.

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

As to the levels of stress within system fully agree. But effects may be different; Putin's regime is much better protected than sloppy tsarists; 1991 is even more different as system of power was much more collective.

You are making assumptions I don't think you should be making.  There is an APPEARANCE that Putin's regime is better protected than 1917 or 1991.  We won't know until that theory has been put to the test.  It hasn't yet, but circumstances indicate it won't be long before it is.

Steve

[Grigb]

Looks like we got something. It looks like UKR fresh reserves we talked about yesterday entered the battle today. They punched through RU defenses behind Sukhi Stavok and reached Bruskinse. And Bruskinse  sits on the main supply route for Davydi Brid.

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Grigb

[Thomm]

Quick spelling refresher:

It is:

• Untermensch
• Übermensch

with the relationship being:

        Untermensch < Übermensch

Best regards
Thomm

 

 

[Taranis]

"An exercise organized by civil protection for the local population, shown to the press in Zaporijia on August 31, 2022. RAFAEL YAGHOBZADEH FOR "LE MONDE""

[Butschi]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We won't know until that theory has been put to the test.

It's not like I don't enjoy this excellent discussion. But this quote applies to your predictions as well as to @Beleg85s. Getting a bit philosophical here: The issue with applying historical examples to current situations in order to predict the future is always that you can never use them to derive any kind of probability. History only ever happens once and so you can't use statistics. And so, as long as you can't come up with a model that explains the basic mechanisms, which may or may not exist and are likely to change over time, the only thing you can derive from an event is that such an event can happen given a set of parameters. (Re: the implications of e.g. the 1917 revolution for the current situation)

Now, Gentlemen, please go on.

 

[Grigb]

Battle around Vysokopillia

• My previous diagram was correct UKR attacked Olhyne from the side and entered the village.
• Also, they are pushing from inside Vysokopillia
• And they made push to Arkhangelske. RU retreated but it is not clear if they retreaded toward outskirts or outside of the village.
• UKR seems to be unable to clear RU out of Olyne and Vysokopilla at the moment but Ru seems to be unable to counter-attack UKR as well.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Grigb

[akd]

Russian take, interesting in both details and presentation:

 

[danfrodo]

My rough estimate is that Kherson front is line ~150km long (does that sound right )?  So we estimate that RU has 20,000 or so troops in the region, meaning max of 133 soldiers per km.  The terrain is mostly open, so RU needs to cover most of that terrain, and to do it depth means that each line has something less than 133.  Including rear area or artillery personnel, say it's 1/2 of the total, that would be ~70 bayonets per km.  Divide into 3 lines of defense, that's ~25 per km of line.  

I suppose RU lines are basically outposts with bigger concentrations along easy lines of access like roads.  So local infiltration, bypassing & encircling seem like a viable tactic.  Knocking out one outpost might open up a hole several hundred meters across.  

RU might have mobile reserves to reinforce any local breakthroughs, but w UKR attacking on a number of widely dispersed axes, with each axis having multiple threads those reserves would hopefully be too little too late.  

This is what I hope is happening.  The difficulty will be based on how well did RU position it's outposts & strongpoints?  how much redundancy?   

Edited August 31, 2022 by danfrodo
typo

[Grigb]

Kherson West battle

• UKR hit Ru at Zelenoi Hai and RU retreated from it
• UKR are enlarging neck pushing toward Bilozerka river to the East
• Ru claim UKR attacked at Blagodatne (near Snihirevka) but unsuccessfully. 

 

[danfrodo]

another good summary at DailyKos

LIBERAL SITE ENTER AT YOUR OWN PERIL

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/31/2119873/-Ukraine-Update-Tens-of-thousands-of-Russians-cut-off-in-Kherson-their-artillery-dwindling

I was quite surprised at all the packaging for just one 122mm shell.  Easy to see how it would take a huge number of truckloads to keep even those smaller tubes firing.