How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

 

it seems to be true today there is a change of epochs

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

There was claimed yesterday about 12 directions of attack and 4 successful directions from this number. Here is example of one unsuccessful...

The area near Petrivka village, 126 km NE from Kherson (more even Nikopol' direction)

A reminder that even if the ultimate victory of Ukraine is assured, there are losses to be taken along the way.

The hatches are open so I'm hoping the crews got out.  Given the amount of visible damage iI think the chances are good.

Steve

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Alexander Stefanov, commander 1st Battalion, 104th Guards Air-Assault Regiment, 76th Guards Air-Assault Division:

Edited August 30, 2022 by akd

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Vladimir Chilin, deputy battalion commander in 83rd Separate Air-Assault Brigade:

Maj. Danil Mupkin, Deputy Commander for Military-Political Work (Zampolit), 810th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade (presumably):

Police Maj. Maxim Daibov, unknown unit:

Maj. Alexander Telyatnikov, unknown unit, from list of “Earthlings who died in local wars” according to Google translate  :

 

Edited August 30, 2022 by akd

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Vladimir Chilin, deputy battalion commander in 83rd Separate Air-Assault Brigade:

 

Maj. Danil Mupkin, Deputy Commander for Military-Political Work (Zampolit), 810th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade (presumably):

 

Police Maj. Maxim Daibov, unknown unit:

 

Maj. Alexander Telyatnikov, unknown unit, from list of “Earthlings who died in local wars” according to Google translate  :

 

 

I grabbed the 2 Sr Lt as earthlings as well.  

[Beleg85]

Frankly, I am slightly worried how long Ukraine will be able to hold OpSec. But boys are definitelly rolling; the thing is real:

 

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Frankly, I am slightly worried how long Ukraine will be able to hold OpSec. But boys are definitelly rolling; the thing is real:

Hopefully not too long - it'll be hard to not announce raising the Ukrainian flag in downtown Kherson and airing footage of the Russian "swim the river" games.  

[chuckdyke]

Russian paratrooper flees to France denouncing army 'chaos' (msn.com)

[akd]

I think something just got HARMed:

 

[sburke]

Report: Drunk Russian soldiers in Kherson fired assault rifles at FSB officers in deadly incident (msn.com)

It is an old report (June 19th) but an interesting peek at the state of Russian troops.

Quote

 

The documents include an incident and homicide report by the Russian Investigative Committee’s Military Investigations Department for the Black Sea Fleet regarding a June 19 incident in which three Russian soldiers were shot and killed and two others wounded in a gun battle with officers of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor agency to the KGB, at a bar in Kherson City, on the banks of the Dnieper River.

According to the Investigative Committee’s report, at about 8 p.m. on June 19, Igor Yakubinsky, Sergei Privalov and D.A. Borodin, three officers attached to the sub-division Military Task Force No. 9 of the FSB entered the Food Fuel cafe on Ushakova Avenue when they discovered two contract soldiers, Sgt. Sergei Obukhov and Junior Lt. Igor Sudin “idly spending time, consuming alcoholic drinks,” according to the Investigative Committee documents.

The FSB officers remonstrated with the enlisted men for drinking while in uniform. Obukhov responded by removing his sidearm and firing rounds into the floor, the report stated. Privalov tried to grab the gun, whereupon Sudin started spraying the security servicemen with rounds from his AK-74 assault rifle, as Privalov and Yakubinsky returned fire.

Obukhov, Privalov and Yakubinsky “died on the spot,” according to the documents, while Borodin and Sudin were “hospitalized with injuries of varying degrees of severity at Federal Naval Clinical Hospital No. 1427 of the Russian Defense Ministry, located in Sevastopol,” in occupied Crimea. A fourth FSB officer, unidentified in the documents, fled the site.

Obukhov, 28, and Sudin, 31, both belonged to a Russian military unit known as the 8th Artillery Regiment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

 

 

[Beleg85]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The apathy of the population works for a coup.  But the coup plotters might not give this much consideration.  If they believe that Russia is going to die as a state and culture without getting rid of Putin, do you think they are going to worry much about opinion polls?  I do not.  I think the coup plotters will assume that they can control the population once they achieve power.  Whether they can or can't isn't relevant.

If done by more cold-calculating guys in power- yes, I think it does matter to them if population will greet them as liberators form despot or treat them as traitors and hang on the tree. All differences aside, the memory of Yanayev putch is still fresh. And if a coup is done by unprepared fanatics, it will probably fail anyway, just as we witnessed in Erdogan's case (which may perhaps serve a better comparison than WWII) and does not change geopolitical situation instantly anyway.

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Conversely, because the nationalists were slow to recognize defeat was inevitable they were unlikely to act against Putin.  The situation we see today is that the pragmatists and the nationalists are now (largely) of the same mind... Russia is headed towards catastrophic defeat and Putin is the one leading them to it.

Yup, logical conclusion, especially about well-connected pragmatic politicians trying to use nats as tools (the most probable scenario in case of power struggles). The problem is we can only guess how coherent such teoretical groups can be. It is still just hypothesis they even exist at all, much less how influential they can be. Nationalists do of corse exists as broad spectrum, but I think they are much more penetrated by FSB and other services than other way around. Mind Russia is a state of undercover services that now work on highest alert; it would simply be hard to create broder conspiracy. Unless many serious guys at the top of several autonomous branches would like it to happen at the same time.

Perhaps in the future we should look more closely at real personas at Kremlin and their biographies, so we could have something stable to speculate about- just as we did with young Patrushev.

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Bombs don't care about who is surrounding Putin.

But those sorrounding Putin care a lot about bombs. Which lead us again to practical matters...

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's really not that difficult to pull off an assassination plot if there's enough will and brains behind it.  Hitler was almost assassinated 3 times within one year and the core plotters were fairly small in number.  The final attempt, July 1944, had a very high chance of success had the bomb remained where it was planted instead of being moved by fate away from Hitler.

Well, his security was rather luckluster compared to Vlad's and he did not expect a plot from such highly connected guys. Note also it was a massive trauma for conspirators to even break the ethos of Prussian army; we don't know if such stigma exist now regarding Putin's servants. Possibly not (=they are more prone to theoretically consider killingl Putin than Wehrmacht officers were to kill Hitler), but they are probably less motivated/urged to act as well, at least for now.

Now comparing those two of course will lead us to historical analogies even more, so instead let's think only about Putin security.:

1. He suspects assassination all the time- he probably is among 5 best protected VIP's in the world now.

2. He is former KGB. It is his kind of job- staying alive among conspirations is his second nature. Outsiders who met him tell he was like that already 15 years ago; think how paranoid and self-protective he is now. He trusts nobody, including his own family (usuall main source of weakness among Russian tsars and all dictators).

3.No unnecessary meetings with unchecked personas (like young officers), possibly very flexible timings of arrivals (did you noticed he was always late when meeting with foreign leaders...?), security of at least several very strict circles done by multiple agencies. We know they practice multiple convoys of several vehicles when moving from place to place. Ofc let's add professional FSB-vetted personal cooks (lichniks, as they are called) and food testers, carefully choreographed and prepared grounds for any public appearances (including staging entire crowds made of agents)...and perhaps more conspiratory, but not entirely impossible existence of body doubles.

4.Not to mention superlong tables and professional poop-bearers. Guy probably don't even leaves a lot of his DNA. which is borderline sick...bur probably highly effective.

Finding a dent in this system would be extremely difficult.  Unless done from strictly insider circle. That is why I think middle-level conspirators are unlikely to try and even more unlikely to succeed- not their league, and sheer scale of the task is huge. Of course you may be right Nats will eventually find some Russian version of Charlotte Corday with enough fanaticism to put his/her life in almost certain and mortal peril. I just sense in the bones curent Russian power system simply does not produce such characters (and feeling in bones is on pair with reading tea leafs in my country   ).

In the end - we need to wait and see. I also hope we will wake up one day and read that Putin have mysterious accident and power (+nuclear codes) landed in trusted hands of one of his more sensible leutnants. But my hopes here are rather based on wishes than conviction of existence of some powerful group of daredevils wlling to sacrifice their lifes for fatherland- historically, such widespread selfless patriotism was very rare in Russian history.

Certainly not West nor Ukraine should build their long-term strategies on such possibility, we will all probably agree on that.

 

On other note, to observe the process of Russian commentators leaving their Plato's cave the following days will be fascinating:

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 

If done by more cold-calculating guys in power- yes I think it does matter if population will great them as liberators form despots or treat them as traitors and hang on the tree. All differences aside, the memory of Yanayev putch is still fresh. If a coup is done by unprepared fanatics, it will probably fail anyway, just as we witnessed in Erdogan's case (which may serve a better comparison than WWII) and does not change geopolitical situation.

By your logic nobody would ever try to unseat a dangerous dictator from within.  And yet coups are routine for authoritarian states, including Putin's regime.  Many are not successful, which underscores my point that coup plotters are risk takers.  Often bad ones.

The mistake you are making is you are applying too much logic, not enough emotion and fanaticism to your equation.  Add to that ambition, hubris, naivete, and old fashioned stupidity. This is the same mix of things which allowed Russia to launch this suicidal war instead of concluding "wow. Ukraine's a pretty tough nut to crack.  I guess we shouldn't invade it".

I've described the mindset of the RU Nats many times... they believe their entire way or life is about to end.  Everything that they believe, everything they know, is (in their minds) on the line.  So far you have not disputed this, yet so far you'ave not addressed what you think these people will do.  Sit on their hands as Putin destroys all of their hopes and dreams?

39 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

But those sorrounding Putin care a lot not have bombs around.

I doubt his security is as good as you think.  My proof?  It's Russians providing his security

I think you also underestimate the chances of someone with insider knowledge of Putin's movements would sell him out for a bank deposit or because they are sympathetic to the cause.  It doesn't even necessarily take anybody from his inner circle.  Russian OPSEC is notoriously sloppy, so I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities for someone looking for them.

39 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Now comparing those two of course will lead us to historical analogies even more, so instead let's think only about Putin security.:

 

A lot of assumptions about how great Putin's security is.  I say again, this is Russia with Russians providing security.  I bet there's holes in there in his security you can drive a Lada through.  The only reason why a violent attempt on his life (as far as we know) hasn't been attempted is because until recently there wasn't a reason to.

As I keep saying over and over again... things have changed.  The Fatherland is nearing its ultimate destruction because national mobilization and martial law are not being put into action.  There is no more time to waste.  Someone has to act and act NOW.  Maximum force is the only solution.

That is where the RU Nats are headed if they haven't already gotten that that point.

39 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Unless done from strictly insider circle.

That would help, but it doesn't have to be some big guy to do it.  A cook, the person who schedules his foot massages... whatever.  It is impossible for someone this big to not broadcast his movements well ahead of time.  Many of the RU Nats have skills to accumulate and leverage this sort of information.

Again, this is Russia, one of the most corrupt countries in the world.  It is safer to assume that the RU Nats have ways of gaining access to information than to assume they don't.

39 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

In the end - we need to wait and see. I also hope we will wake up one day and read that Putin have mysterious accident and power landed in trusted hands of one of his more sensible leutnants. But my hopes here are rather based on wishes than conviction of existance of some powerful group of daredevils wlling to risk their lifes for fatherland- historically, it was rather rare in Russian history.

Historically, we're talking 1917 and 1991 sorts of stress.  For events like this, coups happened 100% of the time.

39 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Certainly not West nor Ukraine should build their long-term strategies on such possibility, we will all probably agree on that.

Of course they shouldn't.  That would be dumb.  But if they haven't cased out some contingency plans in case Putin is deposed, that would also be dumb.  Very dumb.  Putin is going to die at some point and we're likely going to find out about it after, not before.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

And if a coup is done by unprepared fanatics, it will probably fail anyway, just as we witnessed in Erdogan's case (which may perhaps serve a better comparison than WWII) and does not change geopolitical situation instantly anyway.

Erdogan's government was not already redlined by a war that is in the process of being lost, perhaps catastrophically. Somewhere between 70% and 85% of Russias land forces are in Ukraine, or have been withdrawn due losses that have rendered them combat ineffective. Even a minimal attempt at a military coup would be a big deal in these circumstances.

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Perhaps in the future we should look more closely at real personas at Kremlin and their biographies, so we could have something stable to speculate about- just as we did with young Patrushev.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746 A podcast on this very subject, in great detail. I recommend it highly. He has several books about modern Russia as well.

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Finding a dent in this system would be extremely difficult.  Unless done from strictly insider circle. That is why I think middle-level conspirators are unlikely to try and even more unlikely to succeed- not their league, and sheer scale of the task is huge. Of course you may be right Nats will eventually find some Russian version of Charlotte Corday with enough fanaticism to put his/her life in almost certain and mortal peril. I just sense in the bones curent Russian power system simply does not produce such characters (and feeling in bones is on pair with reading tea leafs in my country   ).

Any system with that many bodies has a weakness, it isn't like anybody in the Russian system has a moral aversion to a better offer. More than one Roman emperor found that his throne had been auctioned by his own body guards, or taken by the head of the Praetorian Guard. Putin seems very dependent on the Chechens. That is a both a large weakness in and of itself, and engenders a great deal of resentment a great deal of resentment in the rest of the entourage.

 

Additional thought after reading Steve's post; I will bet my house the Russian Nats HATE the Chechens.

Edited August 31, 2022 by dan/california
Steve cross posted me.

[Battlefront.com]

It's nearly midnight here and still now ISW report for today.  That's very unusual.  My guess is they are working hard to parse through all things that happened today.  Not a usual day, that's for sure

Steve

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's nearly midnight here and still now ISW report for today.  That's very unusual.  My guess is they are working hard to parse through all things that happened today.  Not a usual day, that's for sure

Steve

It could very well be the number 2 guy at the Ukrainian embassy dropped by and asked them to take a day or two off. A request easily sweetened with the promise of an early look at something or another.

[Battlefront.com]

Report that Ukraine blew up a bunch of FSB officers in Melitopol.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3561300-russian-military-base-fsb-dining-place-blown-up-in-melitopol-mayor-fedorov.html

It seems to me that Ukraine's partisans have been holding back on operations in order to coincide with the Kherson offensive.  This is what Russia did ahead of Bagration and the Western Allies did ahead of Overlord.  Worked well for them, should work well for Ukraine

Another reported leadership strike (no details of who was hit) in Kherson.  Like the previous one, it seems to have been conducted when the leaders were meeting in a luxury establishment.  This time, though, it might have been artillery of some sort:

https://censor.net/en/news/3363984/afu_hit_yacht_club_in_kherson_region_where_leadership_of_the_occupiers_was_located_khlan

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, akd said:

I think something just got HARMed:

 

More videos of yesterday's attack on Belgorod.  First one appears to show people leaving the city, the second one shows air defenses reacting to something.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/x1sc51/something_odd_is_happening_in_belgarod_people_are/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/x1uf18/belgarod_the_sky_is_busy_tonight/

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

19 hours ago, Grigb said:

He is right that they are worse than they like to pretend and can easily go for contract with devil (this is how Putin gained power). West must be careful dealing with them.

But on the other hand, give them a bit of slack. They are like this because the whole RU society is like this. You cannot single them out of the entire population. And unlike rest of population they are making progress because they are looking at West and are trying to emulate it. LGBT for example is accepted by RU Liberals. If West make it clear to them that certain behavior is unacceptable, they will change.

Regarding their danger, that is not true. Otherwise, Putin would be long gone. They are non-violent bunch. Moscow liberals are especially non-violent. Around 2011-2012 extremly marginal hardcore part of RU liberals asked Navalny, who could lead a lot of people at that time, to stop pussing around and make a stand (like UKR did at Maidan). Navalny replied that it is wrong approach, he will not do it, peaceful protest is the only way forward.  And he blew the most real chance to get rid of Putin. 

No, it is a different word (initially just chopped piece of wood). It is not as strong and as a result this is what you can hear most often.

Thanks. My profanity ahem sources tell me that 'чурки' (literally 'wood chips' or sumfink) is technically the crudity for Asiatics (of Siberian origin, go figure). But they also admit the nastiness is interchangeable....

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Thanks. My profanity ahem sources tell me that 'чурки' (literally 'wood chips' or sumfink) is technically the crudity for Asiatics (of Siberian origin, go figure). But they also admit the nastiness is interchangeable....

wood chips?  Geez all I can think of now is Fargo...

[Grigb]

Guys, it is morning here, have to do other life stuff. So, most likely will be quiet for next few hours. But I got strange RU report that UKR have been hitting RU positions whole night at Kharkiv and now moving units to attack. It could RU BS (but why?) or UKR info ops RU believed. Let's see.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

Report: Drunk Russian soldiers in Kherson fired assault rifles at FSB officers in deadly incident (msn.com)

It is an old report (June 19th) but an interesting peek at the state of Russian troops.

 

Quoted this before but....

“If this nice friendliness would spread out in Mordor, half our trouble would be over.”

- Samwise

[Offshoot]

Ukrinform report for Aug 30 (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3561420-almost-120-russian-troops-killed-over-30-equipment-units-destroyed-in-ukraines-south-aug-30.html)

"According to verified reports, Ukraine’s strikes eliminated 117 invaders and destroyed nine T-72 tanks, three Grad MLR systems, a Hyacinth-S self-propelled gun, a Msta self-propelled howitzer, 18 armored vehicles, and four ammunition depots in Bashtanka, Beryslav, Kakhovka, and Kherson districts."

[Grigb]

Quick Girkin update - He claims yesterday RU counter attacked and pushed UKR from Sukhi Stavok and Blagodatevki (Inhulets Bridgehead) but were not able to capture Adriivka and Lozove.

Fighting is ongoing. 

[UPDATE] Just in case reminder that capturing settlements is important for RU (for propaganda), for UKR it is important how many RU find free accommodation in UKR soil while fighting - accommodate enough of them and gesture of good will will follow.  

Edited August 31, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

RU is backpedaling claims of imminent UKR offensive at Kharkiv. Interestingly they claim that it is Rosguard that holds the line at Kharkiv direction. The combat units of Rosguard are supposed to be here (for example Division of Dzerzhinsky). As confirmation they cite yesterday's meeting of Putin and Zolotov (commander of the Internal Troops of Russia), first meeting of the that kind.

Either RU army moved somewhere else, or they are already wasted.

[kraze]

7 hours ago, Zeleban said:

gorby died. one of the people behind the emergence of modern Ukraine. I remember this character when I was a child

He was certainly not behind the emergence of modern Ukraine. He was actively fighting it. Very brutally and violently.