How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

UA Mig-29 carrying HARM:

From this video:

And today is  the farewell to Slovakian MiGs. Poland and Czechia will pick up Slovakian air-policing duties for now. One of the Polish journos mentioned that at times only 2 of 11 Slovakian MiGs were in flying condition, it looks like they managed to get 4 airborne. Hopefully in wartime conditions without all the red tape more can be flown:

 

[Grigb]

UKR recon plot thickens. Some already moved the firefight to Chernobaivka (in a week I think it will be RU recon group in Kiev). Meanwhile other says (and looks like it will be official version) a bunch of bandits used UKR announcement of offensive to do their bandit stuff and engaged glorious RU police. Still in Tavrichesky district.

Interestedly they say now only one bandit killed. That's why I believe this version more except it was partisans or left behind operatives.

 

[kraze]

17 minutes ago, Grigb said:

And unlike rest of population they are making progress because they are looking at West and are trying to emulate it. LGBT for example is accepted by RU Liberals. If West make it clear to them that certain behavior is unacceptable, they will change.

This is not true. And it's what I mean by their danger and hazard. "We accept tolerating LGBT but you let us murder and rape in Ukraine, OK?"

It worked perfectly for them in the '90s. Moldova, Georgia, Ichkeriya and Azerbaijan suffered murder, rape and looting without consequence for russian "liberals" because said "liberals" simply allowed private property and started doing relatively fair trade with US and EU.

It's much better for russia to be directed by insane nazis than by intelligent nazis - because it will crash and burn faster. And maybe current war against us will be the last war Russia will ever have started.

At the end of this it will be better for Russia to not exist at all than to be there and run by people like Navalny, who will just pedal back a bit and will just be starting smaller wars with no less suffering for his victims really.

Edited August 30, 2022 by kraze

[Huba]

53 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

The tablet in the middle is an ersatz HARM control station, isn't it? Next step, same setup for JDAMs

Edited August 30, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

Ru are discussing ferry crossing along Antonovsky bridge is hit.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Ru are discussing ferry crossing along Antonovsky bridge is hit.

Some alleged photos:

 

[Calamine Waffles]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

The tablet in the middle is an ersatz HARM control station, isn't it? Next step, same setup for JDAMs

Could be, could also be the battle management system interface.
 

 

[Huba]

And here's a video. Looks like they hit the ferry indeed. As the guy who filmed it zooms in, you can see that the pontoon bridge ends on the left of the source of smoke, that is plainly located on the water. Got to be the ferry:

 

[FancyCat]

Is the supply situation truly that stupid for Russia? They are reduced to ferries. Ferries that look quite sinkable. Not a bridge remains for vehicle movement. To supply 10k-20k personnel. How long before their tanks and IFVs become pillboxes? How long before their fuel runs out, or maybe helicopter airlift can save the day? Staging areas….that airport has been hit so many times. Artillery, their long range pieces I’m assuming need not be on the North bank to target the frontlines? Reports do indicate plentiful stockpiles of lower level ammo exist. 

Putin must be desperate to hold Kherson. Or the General Staff have the collective intelligence of a snail. No other explanation. It makes sense Putin has to step over the Defense Ministry to direct the generals personally, he’s giving out suicidal orders. 

No wonder the deputy head of Kherson is in Russia, collaborators are dropping like flies. Podolyak, who led the peace talks with Russia if one recalls, sent out a taunting tweet about negotiations for the withdrawal of Russians from the North bank of Kherson, I dismissed it as just nothing but…

That’s their only option, isn’t it? A “goodwill gesture”? That or slowly withdraw with a rearguard and hopefully get the bulk of personnel and strategic weapon systems out from the north bank. But how likely can that occur without causing full scale collapse?

Am I missing something? Surely I must be. The alternative is likely Kiev 2.0, except with way more POWs likely. 

[Grigb]

New map regarding Kherson West Battle. This time is based on my appreciation of what is going on there. I was reading Rybar posts and my BS meter suddenly started acting like dosimeter in Chernobil on April 26. While he does not openly lie, he (or rather them) still manipulate minor details and context to make completely opposite impression. I am not going to translate that. But I noticed a certain pattern that I can describe.

What I believe happened in Posad-Pokrovske area (West)

It looks like yesterday's attacks were culmination of silent UKR pushes days prior (or UKR punch was good). If you remember RU made a move around middle of August pushing UKR in some places back. Then it is stalled. So, after it stalled UKR started pushing back and yesterday (western part) they made a punch where they could not push without bang (or they did it in one punch). Now, let's look at the map.

• Look at Olexandrivka. During RU offensive RU pushed UKR about 1.5 km North from the lake. But yesterday they were already back at the Dam and irrigation canal and attacked village from two sides (location of canal crossing is my opinion, Rybar thinks it is further north but further north they do not need to cross it ). So, they pushed all the way back but could not take the village.
•  On both sides of Posad-Pokrovse UKR pushed widening the neck of penetration
• Obviously not everywhere UKR was successful - most likely UKR tried to push to Pravdine as well, but UKR offensive had no success there according to RU.

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Is the supply situation truly that stupid for Russia? They are reduced to ferries. Ferries that look quite sinkable. Not a bridge remains for vehicle movement. To supply 10k-20k personnel. How long before their tanks and IFVs become pillboxes? How long before their fuel runs out, or maybe helicopter airlift can save the day? Staging areas….that airport has been hit so many times. Artillery, their long range pieces I’m assuming need not be on the North bank to target the frontlines? Reports do indicate plentiful stockpiles of lower level ammo exist. 

Putin must be desperate to hold Kherson. Or the General Staff have the collective intelligence of a snail. No other explanation. It makes sense Putin has to step over the Defense Ministry to direct the generals personally, he’s giving out suicidal orders. 

No wonder the deputy head of Kherson is in Russia, collaborators are dropping like flies. Podolyak, who led the peace talks with Russia if one recalls, sent out a taunting tweet about negotiations for the withdrawal of Russians from the North bank of Kherson, I dismissed it as just nothing but…

That’s their only option, isn’t it? A “goodwill gesture”? That or slowly withdraw with a rearguard and hopefully get the bulk of personnel and strategic weapon systems out from the north bank. But how likely can that occur without causing full scale collapse?

Am I missing something? Surely I must be. The alternative is likely Kiev 2.0, except with way more POWs likely. 

Looking at RU propaganda it is very clear they have very skewed appreciation of the situation there. In their imagination UKR suffered catastrophic losses from 500 to 1200 men and have nobody to defend Mykolaev. Everywhere UKR were pushes were annihilated except bridgehead at Andriivka they captured because DPR mobiks run away. But VDV will annihilate them soon as well. 

What to worry, comrade? This is our Great Victory! Soon we will be in Mykolaev!

[The_Capt]

34 minutes ago, Grigb said:

New map regarding Kherson West Battle. This time is based on my appreciation of what is going on there. I was reading Rybar posts and my BS meter suddenly started acting like dosimeter in Chernobil on April 26. While he does not openly lie, he (or rather them) still manipulate minor details and context to make completely opposite impression. I am not going to translate that. But I noticed a certain pattern that I can describe.

What I believe happened in Posad-Pokrovske area (West)

It looks like yesterday's attacks were culmination of silent UKR pushes days prior (or UKR punch was good). If you remember RU made a move around middle of August pushing UKR in some places back. Then it is stalled. So, after it stalled UKR started pushing back and yesterday (western part) they made a punch where they could not push without bang (or they did it in one punch). Now, let's look at the map.

• Look at Olexandrivka. During RU offensive RU pushed UKR about 1.5 km North from the lake. But yesterday they were already back at the Dam and irrigation canal and attacked village from two sides (location of canal crossing is my opinion, Rybar thinks it is further north but further north they do not need to cross it ). So, they pushed all the way back but could not take the village.
•  On both sides of Posad-Pokrovse UKR pushed widening the neck of penetration
• Obviously not everywhere UKR was successful - most likely UKR tried to push to Pravdine as well, but UKR offensive had no success there according to RU.

Points to @Hapless for calling it.  Looks like the month of Aug was a shaping operation for this.  We don't see any punchy western style spearpoint manoeuvre yet - and I am of a mind that we likely won't.  This is instead a steady increase of tactical pressure and projection of friction, now that pre-conditions have been set.  The operational objective is likely everything north of the Dnipro with a focus on Kherson (obviously), however, the UA has to be thinking about the next bound or they risk simply winding up at a new border.

Now let's see if it works.  

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Points to @Hapless for calling it.  Looks like the month of Aug was a shaping operation for this.  We don't see any punchy western style spearpoint manoeuvre yet - and I am of a mind that we likely won't.  This is instead a steady increase of tactical pressure and projection of friction, now that pre-conditions have been set.  The operational objective is likely everything north of the Dnipro with a focus on Kherson (obviously), however, the UA has to be thinking about the next bound or they risk simply winding up at a new border.

Now let's see if it works.  

Given that, if what UA is really doing is forcing Russians to use up materiel faster than they can move it across the Dnipro, pushing slowly is more advantageous actually - there's got to be this sweetspot where whole Russian positions are inside 155mm range, yet RU fire from across the river mostly falls short...

In other news, I just read that inlcuding extra funds allocated from outside MoD budget, Polish military spending in 2023 will probably exceed $30B - that is about as much Australia, but with crushing PPP difference...

Edited August 30, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

Better video from recent strike, it clearly was aimed at the ferry/ assembly area on the shore:

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Given that, if what UA is really doing is forcing Russians to use up materiel faster than they can move it across the Dnipro, pushing slowly is more advantageous actually - there's got to be this sweetspot where whole Russian positions are inside 155mm range, yet RU fire from across the river mostly falls short...

In other news, I just read that inlcuding extra funds allocated from outside MoD budget, Polish military spending in 2023 will probably exceed $30B - that is about as much Australia, but with crushing PPP difference...

Seems to be a new spin - or maybe a very old on.  Operational level: Set pre-conditions - Project friction - Add pressure.  Tactical - infiltrate, isolate, destroy...repeat.  Slow and methodical, until it is not and goes fast...at least that is the working theory.

[Battlefront.com]

14 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

We misunderstood, because I was not even thinking about nats. If at all, the possible coup seems to be delivered by someone we called before "pragmatist"- people already close to power who don't like seeing what is happening, without specific idealistic agenda. Frankly, I even think that "liberals", i.e. pragmatists that are more western-oriented (and with access to possible contacts, money and know-how in for example economics ) would be better candidates than nationalists. And you are right that a lot of such technocrats happen to inhabitate around Barad-Dur Kremlin's walls in Moscow- which will matter greatly in case of such scenario.

Ah, but here is where things get messy.  Alliances of convenience are often forged in difficult times when there is enough overlap in their common goals to warrant risking a joining of forces.

I turn back to 1930s Germany because, again, there's parallels galore with Putin's regime and circumstances.  Hitler *DID NOT* obtain power by rabble rousing in the streets.  That got him noticed, that got him a following, that got him influence.  What got him power was the industrialists (oligarchs by another name) and the military, as well as nationalists within the political and social elite.  Some were believers in what the Nazis stood for, some were taken in by Hitler's personality, but all were united by their desire to see Germany become a world power again.

Many of these people saw Hitler as a tool which they could use to their own ends.  Yup, there was a time when powerful people thought they would be the puppet master and Hitler would do as he was told.  To say they made an error is a vast understatement.

What I identified as the Russian "pragmatists" and the "nationalists" way back when this war started still holds.  However, as the war has gone from bad to worse and then even worse than that the nationalists (RU Nats) have become the ones to watch.  As I said in my previous post, they are fanatics and they are getting more agitated by the hour.

If the pragmatists had the connections and the will to topple Putin on their own, they would have done it by now because a pragmatist would have recognized defeat far earlier than the nationalists.  Conversely, because the nationalists were slow to recognize defeat was inevitable they were unlikely to act against Putin.  The situation we see today is that the pragmatists and the nationalists are now (largely) of the same mind... Russia is headed towards catastrophic defeat and Putin is the one leading them to it.

The RU Nats (as we call them) have connections everywhere and they are fanatics.  Fanatics take risks you or I would deem inadvisable.  I can see a situation where both groups agree that Putin has to go, the RU Nats saying "we'll do the dirty work" and the pragmatists saying "we'll make sure it sticks once you've done it".  RU Nats use their connections in FSB, military, criminal organizations, DLPR, etc. to effect the coup itself, the pragmatists could lend their institutional weight (money, key political positions, technical control of media, etc.) to whatever plan the nationalists come up with. 

As I said, this sort of arrangement is common for coup situations where there is general agreement the leadership has to go but no one group strong enough to take on the task.  After the coup attempt, successful or not, the alliance is likely to fail very quickly and the stronger of the conspirators will take power for themselves.

14 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Now, this all seems highly speculative right now. I see no nationalists in Putin's entourage;

Bombs don't care about who is surrounding Putin.

14 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Of course some crazy Great Rus followers in flanel shirts (yes, Girkin  -altough hard to tell if he still has mojo without moustaches) from outside officiall power structures could theoretically try to organize some kind of assassination, but they would be crushed within blink of an eye unless siloviki and military would suddenly turn from blob of conformist boot-lickers into super-devouted conspirationists willing to risk everything.

It's really not that difficult to pull off an assassination plot if there's enough will and brains behind it.  Hitler was almost assassinated 3 times within one year and the core plotters were fairly small in number.  The final attempt, July 1944, had a very high chance of success had the bomb remained where it was planted instead of being moved by fate away from Hitler.

14 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Now- does this work for or against coup? More below.

The apathy of the population works for a coup.  But the coup plotters might not give this much consideration.  If they believe that Russia is going to die as a state and culture without getting rid of Putin, do you think they are going to worry much about opinion polls?  I do not.  I think the coup plotters will assume that they can control the population once they achieve power.  Whether they can or can't isn't relevant.

14 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Let's stop with general Russian population for a moment.

I agree because I don't think it's relevant any more.  4 months ago?  Yes.  But now?  It really hinges on how bad the RU Nats believe things to be.  Also, I do not believe the RU Nats are as smart as they are violent.  They are bullies and bullies believe they are strong enough to suppress those who oppose them.  Again, the RU Nats' beliefs are all that matter here, not what we view as the real chances of success.

14 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Does this  fact works for or against possible palace coup?

That's just the thing... I don't think there will be a palace coup per se.  In my mind that is when key and influential people betray the glorious leader.  I agree that is only slightly more likely than a revolution from the bottom (masses), which at this point isn't very likely.  Instead, I expect the coup to come from the mid level and outsiders associated with them.

14 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

And note we didn't even touched practicallities of killing Putin, which are complicated enough to scare away most potentiall contenders.

There is safety in numbers, there is confidence in conviction.  *IF* the RU Nats believe that Russia as a concept is about to get snuffed out by Putin's incompetence, they will take that risk.  Of this I am 100% sure.  The only thing I am not sure about is if the RU Nats have hit their breaking point.  There is no way for us to know one way or the other.  But the tea leaves do indicate their awareness of how bad things are and what it implies for their dreams of a larger and more powerful Russia.

Steve

[kevinkin]

After the flurry of reports yesterday, the situation is summarized here:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-officials-say-russian-lines-breached-by-southern-offensive

Interesting comparison to the Falaise Pocket during World War II (no mechanized sweep this time around) and a photo of a recent S-400 position in Crimea. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU Nats seems to be returning back to internal infighting with those who is against showing publicly genocidal tendencies.

[UPDATE] It is quiet though. Activity seems to be lower than usual. Probably they are at least somewhat nervous and are waiting for the news. 

This ties into what FancyCat was wondering about when he asked:

Is the supply situation truly that stupid for Russia?

We have been seeing all the classic signs of denial by the RU Nats since the start of the war.  If they had the same sense of reality as we here do, they would have recognized the war was lost within a few days of it starting.  While we had many in this thread that weren't convinced of that straight away, it didn't take very long for almost all of the doubters to come around to recognizing that Russia could not recover from its mistakes.  The only ones we saw hanging onto unreality were the "long war" believers.  And we've not heard from those guys in quite a while

So, we have to keep in mind that the RU Nats are paying close attention to this war, but always through filters that cause them to conclude victory is possible.  We've seen the filters struggling HARD over the past few weeks in particular, but they are still functioning.

As for the real situation at Kherson, thanks to Ukraine's proven deep strike capability there is no feasible way for Russia to hold it directly.  Distracting Ukraine with a major offensive elsewhere, getting a cease fire, collapsing the Ukrainian resolve to fight... that's the only sort of thing that would save their forces in Kherson.  Yet none of those were even remotely plausible. 

This left Russia with only one option... deny reality.  Not a good choice, but one that they forced themselves into.

Realistically, Russia should have withdrawn from Kherson at the same time they pulled back from Kyiv/Kharkiv or very shortly after.  We know why Russia didn't do this when it had the chance to.  Ever since Ukraine compromised the bridges the fate of ~20,000 troops was sealed.

Steve

[sburke]

5 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Could be, could also be the battle management system interface.
 

 

Jack Sparrow!!!

[BlackMoria]

14 minutes ago, sburke said:

Jack Sparrow!!!

"That is CAPTAIN Jack Sparrow!!   And you have heard of me."

[danfrodo]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

UKR recon plot thickens. Some already moved the firefight to Chernobaivka (in a week I think it will be RU recon group in Kiev). Meanwhile other says (and looks like it will be official version) a bunch of bandits used UKR announcement of offensive to do their bandit stuff and engaged glorious RU police. Still in Tavrichesky district.

Interestedly they say now only one bandit killed. That's why I believe this version more except it was partisans or left behind operatives.

 

The plot thickens.  And hopefully the game is afoot, for real this time.  A significant increase in partisan activity would be expected if this is an operation that is designed to take all of Kherson.  Activating them for only some small pushes would leave most of RU forces available to hunt partisans, while for a bigger offensive those forces would be busy dealing w the breakthroughs.  

It looks like UKR might have finally hit the ferries.  RU liked to show videos of ferries back w civilian vehicles, which may be why UKR has held off for so long.  

RU nats sound like any other belief-driven knuckleheads.  They have a religion and their own identity built around russian superiority and destiny.  Whenever these kinds of folks are forced to make a choice between reality and belief, they will always choose belief, bending (or ignoring) 'reality' however is required to keep their identity intact.  

[Battlefront.com]

It's Ukrainian actions like this that I think will result in a rapid collapse of Russian resistance in Kherson:

It seems plausible that Ukraine has already identified key supply centers just behind the front lines and not yet struck them.  Instead of hitting them all ahead of time, they left some to smash in conjunction with ground offensives.

Put yourself in the Russian defender's shoes.  You've known for some time now that the war isn't going great.  I don't think there's a single Russian soldier that thinks otherwise, even if they believe things can be turned around.  You're positioned in a place where you know your options for supply and retreat, even under the best circumstances, aren't great.  For weeks now, if not months, Ukraine has been talking up how they are going to retake your section of the front.  Then you start hearing and seeing that the bridges that keep you supplied and offer you a path to retreat are cut off.  Your supply dumps and HQs are going BOOM with regularity.  It is probable that supplies have been noticeably affected, such as food coming late or being diminished in some way (quantity and/or quality).  On top of all of that, you're not being rotated out of your positions on any sort of regular basis.  Well, except for senior leadership.  They rotated to the other side of the river.

This is the reality of a Russian soldier prior to the start of the offensive.   Now imagine Ukrainian forces hitting your front in ways you've never experienced.  Scale and intensity.  Cripes, they have air support!!  You're fighting hard, but you don't see reserves coming to back you up.  BOOM!  Your central ammo supply just got blown up.  Now what?  You're hearing from neighboring units that things aren't going much better.  Units further away are also getting slammed.  Well, maybe the ferries and pontoon bridge will be ready to help out, either to reinforce or to evacuate.  DOH!  They just got blown up.

And this is only 1-2 days since the attack started.

Soooooo... what do you suppose the mood is for the average Russian soldier in Kherson?  Fight to the death like Azov or chuck everything and try swimming to the other side?

Steve

[pintere]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Soooooo... what do you suppose the mood is for the average Russian soldier in Kherson?  Fight to the death like Azov or chuck everything and try swimming to the other side?

Steve

Would probably depend on the quality of the units there. Do we have a pretty reliable picture of which Russian units are present and what kind of quality they are?

[Calamine Waffles]

 

[Grigb]

Moscow attitude toward RU Nats and war started to get under RU Nats skin. Khodakovsky, Vostok commander:

Quote

Do you remember how I described what I saw relatively recently - a car with the inscription "Zachem" [king of Z- Why?] on the rear window? It was in Moscow. The other day I was told about a visit to VDNKH [Main permanent general purpose trade show and amusement park of RU] - a guy in a T-shirt with the letter Z caused a demonstrative reaction: passing by him, some covered the view with their palm so as not to see the symbol on his T-shirt...

When a respected man recently publicly disowned his daughter [daughter of senator Isakov escaped from country and publicly stated she is against SMO. He said she is mentaly ill], who did some things that did not correspond to the position of this person, pointing out the fact that he was not raising the daughter since the age of three - I did not condemn the daughter, but I condemned the person: children should not be abandoned and should continue to influence their upbringing, even if you broke up with their mother. Even more so for publicly admiting it. This daughter opposed the special operation, and it didn't inflame me - I've seen everything in my life - and this testifies to me that I'm not a bloodthirsty person.

But if we do not react to the public contempt with which people who stand on the side of their country are showered, if we do not erase from the public plane any negative manifestations about Russia's actions in the current situation - as a society and as a country we will not survive. There is no need to turn everything that is happening into a farce and a triumph of hypocrisy, forcing the dissenters to echo us with a fig in their pocket - but let them express their opinion quietly in the kitchen, and not publicly with a stream of urine to [our] eyes. And it is necessary to beat the snout, and it is necessary to fine, and it is necessary to imprison... Tough? Come to the Donbass - here is the kingdom of liberalism.