How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

The compromise is on the horizon regarding RU visa ban, and a one that anybody can get along with, as there is no reason to give Russians preferential treatment. Time to unleash bureaucracy at them In general, EU countries are rather concentrated on enacting formal sanctions than actually being d***s towards RU, as the are towards us - for example, why the Lithuanian tracks to Kaliningrad are not under  maintenance at the moment is beyond me... 

 

Edited August 28, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

Girkin about situation in Kherson

Quote

As a result of enemy missile hits, the Novokakhovskaya HPP is burning.
In Kherson (and not only [Kherson]) - many hours of interruptions with electricity and water supply.

 

[Huba]

UA GS appreciates the NAFO counter-trolling campaign. I need a new avatar... 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Perun makes a new video about a topic a lot of us have been thinking about recently.

[Grigb]

Not only UKR have problems with arty. RU report from Mykolaev (Kherson) Direction. Most useful bits

• Around 24-26 AUG UKR launched local counter offensive
• RU local unit suffers losses (means they suffer heavy losses)
• UKR are moving freely around, directing artillery
• But RU arty does not do much
• RU local unit told that arty support of Donbass level will happen after Donbass battle
• UKR are rotating troops. Looks like 3 days shift at frontline then rest at Mykolaev.
• Because they have a lot of shifts, troops can rest.
• Different shifts act differently - there were coward "pacifist" and there were "murderers" and "provocation makers" [they literally think that killing them is a murder and provocation]

[Grigb]

RU description of one of the RU attack toward Oil Depot during Lisichansk offensive.

Quote

"Feck brother ....
Was born in a shirt [extremely lucky], they say ....
You don't know what to believe anymore.

We are storming important objects.
[We] got into an ambush the other day, there were no Ukrainians at all. All mercenaries.
2 tanks from both sides are giving us nightmare for 2 days, captured, or simply painted with Z V, rolling around fields and shooting.

In short, we went in a column to storm an oil depot near Lisich[ansk], there were 700m left.

I was driving at the head of the column, on top of the very first one APC, [I] got blown up. Right under the commander's wheel, I had 2 mines exploded, it was lucky that anti-personnel, otherwise there would be nothing to collect from me at all, same ****, [it] torn the bottom, the grass was visible under us, [we] got out and began to escape into the tree line and they started firing at us from 3 sides, just [we were] ****ed.

From one tree line, machine-gun, RPG, ATGM, snipers, from the edge of the neighboring forest, several 60[mm] NATO and 120[mm] mortars (the most ****ed up)  [seems NATO 120mm are extremely painful for RU] two tanks were f*cking [shooting], no support, no help, no ****.

I just got out of the APC, started punching the way for the platoon, went first to look at the mines here and there, and 120 mm from a mortar flew in right in one meter.
Everyone says [I] was born in a shirt.

Because when it flies straight into you, you can't hear a whistle, nothing, but it flew right under [my] feet a meter away.

The mortar has a radius of destruction of fragments, the first 2-3 meters of the letter V flies apart, and I was just between, but [I] was completely covered with earth, in my mouth, in my eyes, in my ears, the earth is feck, [I]  was already thrown back by a meter. [With] blood from the ears.

And they ****ed us like that for 6 hours, they didn't even really fight, they just beat us from all sides, [we could not even] stick [our heads] out. I'm lying with a soldier behind the neighboring trees, another 120[mm] flies in the back, the earth falls all around me, he has half his ass blown out, I start to give him first aid, [another] dude sits down next to him, it arrives again, he [got splinter] through his arm, bone, [after that] it lost inertia and gets stuck in my helmet.

In short, ****ing hell. I'm one of the platoon commanders who is left.
And my company commander [as well].
There were 85 people from the company, now there are 15 in the ranks.

The oil depot was taken, several villages were taken one by one, Lisichansk was cut off into a "pocket", the city was taken, the CC [Company Commander] sent me to the hospital for now.
With two concussions, 5-7 days of silence and back.

It's very hard here.
Yes, what do you expect from the offensive? They **** [us] from ambushes, retreat to pre-prepared positions back and [it happens] all the time. They leave the territory, and we leave the boys on the battlefield."

 

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Perhaps not, but it is a great pretense to REALLY harass every tendril of the Russian government and its extremely well paid enablers in DC. The FBI and related three letter agencies should shake the bleep out of that infested nest of money influence, and espionage and see and falls out. Things are far, FAR past giving the Russians the benefit of the doubt about anything whatsoever. And if they did do it there should be about three Russians with diplomatic passports in the U.S. for the next decade.

Oh, I think the Russian mission in DC is pretty highly harassed already. Unlike pre-invasion, all of their buildings around town now have some police presence (of varying visibility) and God help anyone waving around a Russian flag. 

[Billy Ringo]

9 hours ago, Grigb said:

So, there is non-zero chance that RU Nats might get control over some parts of RU military. And that would be the most combat capable units. Still not enough to take Moscow though. 

You allude to this a couple of times, are you referring to winning the emotional support of Moscovites, or the actual control over Moscow militarily?   If the later, then Russia really is about to fall apart at the seams.  

As an aside, a HUGE thank you for your translations and input.

[Huba]

Wolski put his weekly video on YT today. There's isn't much to talk about regarding the situation on the frontline (he acknowledged the arrival of 3AC in Rostov), but he gave an interesting breakdown of UA aircraft losses and replenishment. As these videos do not get translated by YT, let me give you a quick summary:

The "initial"  Feb24th numbers are of airworthy airframes only:

Su-24: 12 lost of 15 available initially. No replenishment of these, as none of the few operators is willing to donate any. Perhaps UA will be able to repair a few more, but in general the type is about to leave the UA service due to losses.

Su-25: 22 available on Feb24th, 10 were lost, but 18 were delivered from various countries. 

MiG-29: between 36 -45 in flying condition on Feb24th. 15 were lost, 12 new delivered or on their way now (something is launching the HARMs ;). The moment KAI FA-50s arrive in Poland, our MiG's will go there too.

Su-27: 30 flying in February. 5 reportedly lost, but 3 delivered by US, taken out from aggressor squadrons

[Kinophile]

Ref an "assault on. Moscow"... 

It feels we're going off the imaginary deep end a bit...

The Romanovs had to be completely and utterly discredited, suffer catastrophic battlefield losses and economic destruction, and have an insane sociopath core out their government from top down before a coup was possible. 

Soviet Russia needed decades of internal rot and cancer before the collapse began. 

Putler possibly faces all those things- possibly - but nothing happening now is even approaching the equivalent of the preconditions for a military coup, let alone revolution. 

So talk of RU Nats taking control of military  units and attacking Mosow is, to me, fantabulist in the extreme. 

RU Nats are not organised, have no clearand charismatic leader (utterly critical in Russia), no structure, no coherent and focusing ideology, no overt political buy-in from existing elites, are completely vulnerable to the FSB and are geographically dispersed. Their demands are a fevered dream and a lot needs to shape up/fall apart before they are an actual threat/alternative to the existing power structures. They are a cloud of whining gnats, irritating but nothing some standard "FSB Anti-Gnat Spray 3000 (also use for Shoe Shine, Salad Dressing and Ladies Make-Up)" can't easily squash. 

Online ranting is all well and good, but to take reigns of top power you need some power to start with. 

Like that old adage, you need to spend money to make money,  you need to have power to gain more power. 

And RU Nats ain't got squat right now. 

Edited August 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

It is always very difficult to read Russian tea leaves even under normal circumstances when things more-or-less established patterns.  We are not experiencing normal circumstances   Still, there is enough real information to sift through to make some sort of guess at the behind the scenes trends.  As with anything, determining the intensity and timing of events is far less easy to do.

Humans act fairly uniformly when under stress.  The more stress that is applied drives people towards extremes.  The ones to watch are the people already "activists".  While stress seems to make the majority of people more apathetic (tired, resigned to fate, etc.), the activists get energized by the situation.  At some point they are like the arrow in a drawn bow... they can't sit there indefinitely.  Either the tension on the bowstring is released or the arrow will fly.  No signs of the tension being released, so we should expect the arrow to fly.

When looking at the situation before us we have to keep in mind that rarely does a major event happen without precursor events, yet the timing and specifics are impossible to predict with any certainty because they are inherently emotional.  Arab Spring, Syrian Civil War, American Civil War, Russian Revolution, Soviet Union collapse, etc. all were logical outcomes of the events that came before them, but nobody was ready when they happened.  It just went from "business as usual" to conflict seemingly overnight.

We should expect the same with Russia.  The pressures for revolution have been building for a long time.  Putin has been increasingly pushing back with more force and less restraint (let's just put 2011 as a starting point).  The war itself might have been significantly influenced by internal domestic pressures against his regime.  For sure Putin doesn't think he can survive full mobilization, which is the only strong possibility of winning this war.

My point here is that the pot was near a boil even in February 2022 and Putin stupidly turned up the heat.  Recent RU Nat behavior seems to be the bubbles one sees as a boil comes into being.  Putin can't turn down the heat so he's holding down the lid.  Physics are not in his favor.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Once again, you posted while I was posting

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Soviet Russia needed decades of internal rot and cancer before the collapse began. 

Depending on how you measure things, Putin's regime has had about 14 years of "cancer" already.  Some point to 2011 as the first significant sign of that happening, but it goes back further than that.  2011 was the result of heavy handed interference with local elections, which means Putin already felt things weren't going so well.  One doesn't interfere in elections otherwise.  The resulting clamp down on civil rights after was dramatic, again showing that things were already pretty bad.  They have gotten only worse since then.

Then there was the move to remove local autonomy for the selection of governors.  in 2012 the law changed so that the governors were appointed by government officials who, themselves, are appointed by Putin.  That was a huge indication that the power structures beneath Putin were not to be trusted.  Purges of even these "safe" appointees have happened since then.  And just last week we saw a local governor override the FSB's intentions over how Yevgeny Roizman would be prosecuted.  I meant to highlight this fact when we were discussing it, but I didn't get around to it.

Putin's only been in power for two decades, but for most of it there was "rot" evident in his regime.

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Putler possibly faces all those things- possibly - but nothing happening now is even approaching the equivalent of the preconditions for a military coup, let alone revolution. 

As I wrote in my previous post, you won't be able to predict when it happens, but it will be pretty obvious when it does.  In the US nobody could have predicted Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, or January 6th in detail, but lots of people saw SOMETHING coming.  And after they happened, pretty much nobody said "wow, where did that come from?".

I think Russia is one major battlefield defeat away from collapse.  I personally think Kherson would be enough to make it happen, especially if Ukraine is able to show thousands of Russian prisoners to the Russian people.

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

So talk of RU Nats taking control of military  units and attacking Mosow is, to me, fantabulist in the extreme. 

It is only fantabuilst until it happens, then it is reality.

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

RU Nats are not organised, have no clearand charismatic leader (utterly critical in Russia), no structure, no coherent and focusing ideology, no overt political buy-in from existing elites, are completely vulnerable to the FSB and are geographically dispersed. They are a cloud of whining gnats, irritating but some standard "FSB Anti-Gnat Spray 3000 (also use for Shoe Shine, Salad Dressing and Ladies Make-Up)" will squash them easily.

Online ranting is all well and good, but to take reigns of top power you need some power to start with. 

Like that old adage, you need to spend money to make money,  you need to have power to gain more power. 

And RU Nats ain't got squat right now. 

This is all true, but it is also true for most coups.  Hitler and his National Socialists were dismissed as "rabble rousers" for a long time, but observers didn't realize how deeply their reach penetrated into the military, industrial, and political elites until it was too late. 

Like the Nazis, the RU Nats have an ideology that appeals to people in power.  Especially the military.  This is why the Western definition of "liberal" or "democrat" (note the lower case "d"!) have no chance in Russia at all.  When the ruling elite senses things are spiraling out of control they have something to easily swap out for the status quo.  The inherent comparability of their ideology with traditional notions of power and order is the real power of the RU Nats, not the individuals who type blogs.  This is exactly how the Nazis went from a minority fringe party to full control over German society seemingly overnight.

Steve

[kraze]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We should expect the same with Russia.  The pressures for revolution have been building for a long time.  Putin has been increasingly pushing back with more force and less restraint (let's just put 2011 as a starting point).  The war itself might have been significantly influenced by internal domestic pressures against his regime.  For sure Putin doesn't think he can survive full mobilization, which is the only strong possibility of winning this war.

My point here is that the pot was near a boil even in February 2022 and Putin stupidly turned up the heat.  Recent RU Nat behavior seems to be the bubbles one sees as a boil comes into being.  Putin can't turn down the heat so he's holding down the lid.  Physics are not in his favor.

Steve

2011 is not a starting point because a bunch of peace-loving tree-hugging hipsters is not who will rule Russia ever. People who are not violent by nature do not get respect or support of the population.

2014 is a real starting point (because Russia failed to occupy or subdue Ukraine) and when russians lose this war - it will be the boiling point. Losing the war is what causes either a coup or disintegration (depending on the severity).

It was like so for the empire in 1917, for USSR in 1989, for Yeltsin in 1996 (this time it was just a coup because Ichkeriya is fairly small and not ideologically important) - and without a doubt will be massive and fatal because russians bet their whole mythology on this war alone.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

2011 is not a starting point because a bunch of peace-loving tree-hugging hipsters is not who will rule Russia ever. People who are not violent by nature do not get respect or support of the population.

2014 is a real starting point (because Russia failed to occupy or subdue Ukraine) and when russians lose this war - it will be the boiling point. Losing the war is what causes either a coup or disintegration (depending on the severity).

It was like so for the empire in 1917, for USSR in 1989, for Yeltsin in 1996 (this time it was just a coup because Ichkeriya is fairly small and not ideologically important) - and without a doubt will be massive and fatal because russians bet their whole mythology on this war alone.

As I said, it goes back even before 2011.  Peace-loving hipsters are the first to complain when things get bad, so the 2011 unrest was an indication that Putin's "legitimate" grip on power was already in decline.  2014 is a critical time, for sure, for many reasons, however it was the result of what came before.  Like you, I believe "before" goes back hundreds of years.

Steve

[danfrodo]

27 minutes ago, kraze said:

2011 is not a starting point because a bunch of peace-loving tree-hugging hipsters is not who will rule Russia ever. People who are not violent by nature do not get respect or support of the population.

2014 is a real starting point (because Russia failed to occupy or subdue Ukraine) and when russians lose this war - it will be the boiling point. Losing the war is what causes either a coup or disintegration (depending on the severity).

It was like so for the empire in 1917, for USSR in 1989, for Yeltsin in 1996 (this time it was just a coup because Ichkeriya is fairly small and not ideologically important) - and without a doubt will be massive and fatal because russians bet their whole mythology on this war alone.

I think I agree with this but would say it differently.  In times of chaos and upheaval, it is often the most ruthless that succeed, at least in the short term.  Folks that balk at murdering innocents (like families of enemies) are less effective at gaining control.  When you say "respect or support" of population I would say "instill fear and terror" in the population. 

[Battlefront.com]

Comments on the Third Corps...

Many, including Murz, wonder why Russia would build brand new units rather than feed replacements into existing ones.  There's some pretty good reasons why this didn't happen and probably wouldn't work even if tried:

1. These are volunteers outside of the regular Army contract system.  Mixing them in with standard contractors would likely produce some undesirable results.  I don't think either volunteers or contractors would be happy with such an arrangement.
2. It is logistically easier to raise new units because large scale reorganization of existing units requires is more difficult than building a new one.  It's similar to any broken thing... at some point it is easier to go with a replacement.
3. Rebuilding units also requires withdrawing the unit from the frontline.  Russia did try this, in particular with the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade in Belgorod, and it did not go well.  First, Russia didn't have adequate reserves to hold the line after the withdrawal, which gave Ukraine opportunities to push back.  Second, they got into a serious problem of soldiers refusing to go back into Ukarine.  Keeping existing units at the front solves both of these problems, but precludes rebuilding.
4. A bunch of new units provides new mass far faster than rebuilding.  Russia is short on time, so having a couple thousands fresh fighters concentrated into one group at one time has an obvious appeal for someone looking to restart a stalled offensive.

Of course, these good reasons for new volunteer units does not mean good results.  In fact, history and logic says it will produce worse results.  But Russia is desperate and out of time so a gamble like this really is their only practical option.

It seems that Russia will use the 3rd Corps to restart the Donbas offensive.  Possible further south than the current fighting.  This makes more sense than other locations because any gain of territory counts towards their overriding goal of taking the rest of Donetsk.  Offensives anywhere else still leave that central military goal unaddressed.  Therefore, it makes perfect sense for Russia to continue pounding away in the Donbas.

That said, our previous thinking that Zaporozhye might be the target was not flawed because we understand that even if Russia takes all of the Donbas it will still lose the war.  To seriously change the possibilities of loss they need to do something bolder and riskier.  It seems the Russians don't think they are up for it any more.  I can't blame them as the Easter offensive failed so badly at achieving far easier objectives.

To me this indicates that the Russian senior planners, including Putin, have at least some understanding of their limitations at the strategic level.

Steve

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

These are volunteers outside of the regular Army contract system.  Mixing them in with standard contractors would likely produce some undesirable results.  I don't think either volunteers or contractors would be happy with such an arrangement.

I understand that the 3rd Corp consist largely of these new volunteer battalion. As you said, imagine putting these guys who get 4K$ monthly in the same unit as some poor bastards coerced to sign contract for some peanuts 3 months ago...

[danfrodo]

Here's post w some thoughts about the new 3rd Corps, nothing groundbreaking, but makes point that this corps is not very good.  Though oddly enough, seems to have been given good gear. Unless those videos were just for propaganda purpose -- "look at the great new gear they have" where maybe they had a few BMP3, T90, etc, just for the videos and the real gear is old.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN PERIL

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/28/2119266/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-fields-its-new-volunteer-battalion-and-it-s-it-s-just-weird

And Huba has a new picture .  Which appears to be a hamster auditioning for a movie role as Patton?

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And Huba has a new picture .  Which appears to be a hamster auditioning for a movie role as Patton?

How dare you! It is NAFO Shiba Inu dressed as Captain Blackadder (from the 4th season of the show)  There's a gal on Twitter who makes these avatars based on your idea for a donation to Georgian Legion fighting in Ukraine.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Huba

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

I understand that the 3rd Corp consist largely of these new volunteer battalion. As you said, imagine putting these guys who get 4K$ monthly in the same unit as some poor bastards coerced to sign contract for some peanuts 3 months ago...

And there might be another psychological reason. Fresh units might act more reckless (stupid) than battle experienced units.

I think about the example of 7th Armoured Division or 51st Highland Division in Normandy 44.

There is almost no doubt that the division was suffering from collective and cumulative battle fatigue. As Lloyd-Verney put it, with some prescience:  

"There is no doubt that familiarity with war does not make one more courageous. One becomes cunning and from cunning to cowardice is but a short step."^[38]

[38] D'Este, p. 273

[Aragorn2002]

21 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

And there might be another psychological reason. Fresh units might act more reckless (stupid) than battle experienced units.

I think about the example of 7th Armoured Division or 51st Highland Division in Normandy 44.

There is almost no doubt that the division was suffering from collective and cumulative battle fatigue. As Lloyd-Verney put it, with some prescience:  

"There is no doubt that familiarity with war does not make one more courageous. One becomes cunning and from cunning to cowardice is but a short step."^[38]

[38] D'Este, p. 273

A Russian Langemarck hopefully.

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

You allude to this a couple of times, are you referring to winning the emotional support of Moscovites, or the actual control over Moscow militarily? If the later, then Russia really is about to fall apart at the seams.  

Sentence in bold is about actual control over Moscow militarily. Once Moscow mood changed, I do not see how RU Nats can get it back. Moscow is just too centrist with a strong liberal presence.

I am elaborating on different scenarios that may be unrealistic not to lock myself in my personal bubble.  

 

2 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

As an aside, a HUGE thank you for your translations and input.

Thank you. Just doing what I can. Though still not enough. But my friend is hopeful and is finding ways to do more.

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

A Russian Langemarck hopefully.

Yeah reminds me of a Goebbels quote of "Der Untergang": "What these men are lacking in experience and weapons is compensated by their glowing, unconditional belief to the ultimate victory!"

 

 

[sburke]

Explosions Heard in Russian-Occupied City, Army Base Hit: Official (msn.com)

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Comments on the Third Corps...

Many, including Murz, wonder why Russia would build brand new units rather than feed replacements into existing ones.  There's some pretty good reasons why this didn't happen and probably wouldn't work even if tried:

Steve

I would like to add another one reason not to do it. It is particularly strong from Putin perspective - battered units (especially L-DPR ones) have already battered loyalty. Adding more men to them is potentially increasing strength of anti-Kremlin forces. New formations have sort of predictable loyalty. Sacrificing everything for the sake of loyalty is the trademark of the Kremlin.