How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

Very impressive. 

 

[Huba]

11 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Any idea on quantity, Huba?  I hope it's lots.

I tried to do some research, but couldn't find anything unfortunately. They have some launchers with some missiles, nothing specific.

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Lesson #1 from the modern era is "forget everything you think you know" (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336975512_Nanotechnology-Driven_Explosives_and_Propellants)

Lesson #2 is "never forget what you knew"

Lesson #3 is don't think too hard about the relationship between lessons #1 & #2, it is just how it is. 

So do you have any idea how much more powerful the modern explosives are compared to let's say WW2 equivalents? I recall that modern 155mm filler would be around 50% more powerful (in itself, disregarding the quantity) compared with regular TNT. But in general, my impression was that the research is more focused on other properties like insensitivity to accidental explosions, resilience to degradation with time etc.?

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

So do you have any idea how much more powerful the modern explosives are compared to let's say WW2

They are far more precise, no need to increase the energy. 

[sross112]

36 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

Jeepers. Double HIMARS...

That's like steak, with a side of steak!!  

 

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, Huba said:

I tried to do some research, but couldn't find anything unfortunately. They have some launchers with some missiles, nothing specific.

So do you have any idea how much more powerful the modern explosives are compared to let's say WW2 equivalents? I recall that modern 155mm filler would be around 50% more powerful (in itself, disregarding the quantity) compared with regular TNT. But in general, my impression was that the research is more focused on other properties like insensitivity to accidental explosions, resilience to degradation with time etc.?

I have heard rumors that they are aiming at an "order of magnitude" as a reasonable target, but I do not know how much stock I would put in that.  This is a big area of military R&D for obvious reasons.  Now how long it is going to take to get there...?

But I also do not think it unreasonable that by the time the PrSM gets to FOC they have managed to reduce weight by half and keep the same NEQ.  If they were able to pull off x10, then a 40mm grenade now would have roughly the same hitting power as an 81mm mortar.   

Edited August 23, 2022 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grossman said:

The head of Ukraine’s security and defence council, Oleksiy Danilov, said he expects Russia’s security services to stage a series of terrorist attacks in Russian cities, resulting in large numbers of civilian casualties.

Danilov said that the murder on Saturday of Darya Dugina, the daughter of Russian ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, was the first in what he expects to be a number of attacks.

He also said support for the war in Russia is falling and the Kremlin needs to introduce general mobilisation.

Yeah... this has been rumored for a while and it is totally in keeping with Kremlin strategy.  I don't think it will work now.  Might have worked better if they did it BEFORE they attacked, but now?  I think most Russians have a sense that they are losing the war and that there is no incentive for them to commit blatant criminal acts like that.  Even if it DOES work, I doubt the Russian opinion will support general mobilization as a solution.

Perhaps related, for the last couple of days the US State Department is advising US citizens to leave Ukraine.  Based on how well US Intel has been tapped into Russia's intentions, I think it is wise to believe something is up and it is going to be unpleasant.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3611924-us-urging-citizens-to-leave-ukraine-ahead-of-holiday/

Steve

[Huba]

Dugin speaking at his daughter's funeral. He really is a disgusting POS:

And Galeev's rant about the subject. Using Dugina's death as a pretext for massed terror strikes at UA makes perfect sense, making the event immediately useful. I doubt that would be the only reason for killing her:

 

 

Edited August 23, 2022 by Huba

[billbindc]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah... this has been rumored for a while and it is totally in keeping with Kremlin strategy.  I don't think it will work now.  Might have worked better if they did it BEFORE they attacked, but now?  I think most Russians have a sense that they are losing the war and that there is no incentive for them to commit blatant criminal acts like that.  Even if it DOES work, I doubt the Russian opinion will support general mobilization as a solution.

Perhaps related, for the last couple of days the US State Department is advising US citizens to leave Ukraine.  Based on how well US Intel has been tapped into Russia's intentions, I think it is wise to believe something is up and it is going to be unpleasant.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3611924-us-urging-citizens-to-leave-ukraine-ahead-of-holiday/

Steve

Yep. Russia's problem in Ukraine now isn't solvable with an uptick in mobilization or more intense political support at home. The repression's already at 9.5 and there's simply not a lot of slack in the available population. Russia's problem is that Ukraine is going to win eventually unless Western support is somehow halted or declines. In that light, it's pretty plausible that the FSB would hit on hostage taking as one route to try and influence American opinion. 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Yep. Russia's problem in Ukraine now isn't solvable with an uptick in mobilization or more intense political support at home. The repression's already at 9.5 and there's simply not a lot of slack in the available population. Russia's problem is that Ukraine is going to win eventually unless Western support is somehow halted or declines. In that light, it's pretty plausible that the FSB would hit on hostage taking as one route to try and influence American opinion. 

yeah, getting back on the front page in US & EU by doing terrorist attacks is only going to get more support for Ukraine.  Good god, RU has been stupid on the international propaganda front.  It's not just incompetent, it's anti-competent, meaning doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing.  

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

yeah, getting back on the front page in US & EU by doing terrorist attacks is only going to get more support for Ukraine.  Good god, RU has been stupid on the international propaganda front.  It's not just incompetent, it's anti-competent, meaning doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing.  

I don't think we will see terror attacks on Americans. We will see hostage taking. The FSB certainly knows that its propaganda efforts aren't going anywhere at the moment so they will work harder at leverage and pressure. It isn't necessarily the smart move but smart isn't worth waiting for when the drive from the center is to do something, anything, to change the trajectory of events.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Yep. Russia's problem in Ukraine now isn't solvable with an uptick in mobilization or more intense political support at home. The repression's already at 9.5 and there's simply not a lot of slack in the available population.

A long time ago, like 8 years or more past, it was possible to encounter an educated, Western acclimated Russian civilian who would argue that Russia was not a dictatorship and was, instead, a reasonably well functioning government like in the West.  This made it more difficult to discuss things that the Russian government did that were obviously anti-democraitc.  And so you'd wind up wasting enormous amounts of energy on the basics before having any hope of discussing the real issue.

Now, I don't think there's many Russians like this any more.  I doubt the masses who are totally ignorant of what a functioning representative government is like thinks the Russian government is anything but corrupt and repressive.  They might not fully appreciate how bad it is, but they likely recognize that things have been getting worse over the years and have gotten particularly worse since this war started.

This is important because it means that Putin has squandered most of the good will he built up with his own people over 15-20 years.  Just like he did with the West.  This is why Putin fears general mobilization.

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Russia's problem is that Ukraine is going to win eventually unless Western support is somehow halted or declines. In that light, it's pretty plausible that the FSB would hit on hostage taking as one route to try and influence American opinion. 

The stupidity of this, of course, is that Ukraine could win this war even with minimal Western aid.  It would just take them a LOT longer and the suffering would be vastly worse.  Similarly, Russia has already lost this war and all it can do is increase the level of misery surrounding it.

Steve

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Dugin speaking at his daughter's funeral. He really is a disgusting POS:

And Galeev's rant about the subject. Using Dugina's death as a pretext for massed terror strikes at UA makes perfect sense, making the event immediately useful. I doubt that would be the only reason for killing her:

 

 

I guess I just don't get Russian mindset because I still cannot see the point of a false-flag op here - what is Russia undeciding that is in their interest?  They did not need an excuse to hit Ukrainian civilians, they executed them in the streets FFS, we are kinda past a Russian "Just War" argument here.

I get that this was clearly aimed at internal audiences, which could speak to some internal frictions as has been noted on this thread.  However, for the life of me I again do not see the point.  It has been well touted that 1) most Russians support this "special operation", up to a point and 2) the rest largely do not care.  Russians have sat back and watched Ukraine get pounded for months, including civilian targets,, while a steady stream of (largely non-Moscow) dead Russian boys comes home.  Do they need a false-flag to somehow shore up support?  Where did that come from?

What has fundamentally changed internal to Russia for them to start assassinating Putin supporters very publicly - in a freakin Moscow street(!?).  Further the 'minuses' in this are not small as to the West, and no doubt Russians: from mainstream media it looks like a 29 year old mother took her kid on holiday, blew up a high-profile Putin supporter Tom Clancy style, and then walked back over the border to Estonia with her 12 year old daughter - that is the best they could come up with for a "false flag"?!

None of this makes any freakin sense.  The FSB and Russian internal security look about as incompetent as possible.  Apparently one only need take the Kremlin tour and you can probably take a shot at Putin in the bathtub.  Seriously, I am not even sure how they could make a movie out of this hit, maybe a Saturday morning cartoon - Tasha and Her Hot Mom take a Trip to Moscow - Singalong Roadtrip

Someone in the know help me out - Is this an internal thing?  Is this the best the FSB could pull out of their handbag because the truth is worse?  Is this somehow going to convince the Russians to....dare we say it?....mobilize?!!  [Seriously, I am not even sure what that would look like at this point - a mass of untrained conscripts in WW2 equipment, trying to cover off an 800km front?]

So what if it was Ukrainian?  I mean technically an act outside of the LOAC but so was blowing a guy off a balcony in Kabul.  In fact if a Ukrainian version of SOE wants to start picking off Russian HVT how is that any different that all the decapitation strikes and attacks on the Ukrainian political level? 

[Grigb]

and next Kherson map

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A long time ago, like 8 years or more past, it was possible to encounter an educated, Western acclimated Russian civilian who would argue that Russia was not a dictatorship and was, instead, a reasonably well functioning government like in the West.  This made it more difficult to discuss things that the Russian government did that were obviously anti-democraitc.  And so you'd wind up wasting enormous amounts of energy on the basics before having any hope of discussing the real issue.

Now, I don't think there's many Russians like this any more.  I doubt the masses who are totally ignorant of what a functioning representative government is like thinks the Russian government is anything but corrupt and repressive.  They might not fully appreciate how bad it is, but they likely recognize that things have been getting worse over the years and have gotten particularly worse since this war started.

This is important because it means that Putin has squandered most of the good will he built up with his own people over 15-20 years.  Just like he did with the West.  This is why Putin fears general mobilization.

The stupidity of this, of course, is that Ukraine could win this war even with minimal Western aid.  It would just take them a LOT longer and the suffering would be vastly worse.  Similarly, Russia has already lost this war and all it can do is increase the level of misery surrounding it.

Steve

Oh yeah...I knew some of those "managed democracy" folks. It was very much the "well, it's Russia, so you have to think about where we came from and what we are trying to achieve". The war against Georgia was where the milk started to curdle and then the writing on the wall was obvious in 2014, when the smart ones started to figure out how to get a job in Geneva, DC or London while the rest figured out to what degree they would allow themselves to be coopted. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I have heard rumors that they are aiming at an "order of magnitude" as a reasonable target, but I do not know how much stock I would put in that.  This is a big area of military R&D for obvious reasons.  Now how long it is going to take to get there...?

But I also do not think it unreasonable that by the time the PrSM gets to FOC they have managed to reduce weight by half and keep the same NEQ.  If they were able to pull off x10, then a 40mm grenade now would have roughly the same hitting power as an 81mm mortar.   

This is the obvious route to go down for a lot of things, certainly weapons.  We've hit a plateau on all kinds of things that require energy to perform their function.  Efficiency is high for things like explosives and propellants.  Clever designs might eek out a bit more performance, but that is all.

I've been following small arms ammunition developments quite intensely for a few years now.  The new polymer based rounds that the US military is adopting are examples of eeking out relatively minor improvements.  This is no black powder to rim fire, to center fire.  Even the problematic caseless ammo concept wouldn't be more than a mild, though significant, improvement if it could be made practical.  On the other hand, having the equivalent of a 7.62 round propelled by the volume of charge found in a .22 round would be.  Or developing a small arm where a 3 or 4mm projectile could perform the same as a much larger one.  That's the sort of thing we could see if the brains in labcoats come up with the basic ingredients and the geeks with pencil protectors figure out how to employ it successfully.

Personally, I'm looking forward to this sort of stuff for more practical things such as transportation (including space based).

Steve

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I guess I just don't get Russian mindset because I still cannot see the point of a false-flag op here - what is Russia undeciding that is in their interest?  They did not need an excuse to hit Ukrainian civilians, they executed them in the streets FFS, we are kinda past a Russian "Just War" argument here.

I get that this was clearly aimed at internal audiences, which could speak to some internal frictions as has been noted on this thread.  However, for the life of me I again do not see the point.  It has been well touted that 1) most Russians support this "special operation", up to a point and 2) the rest largely do not care.  Russians have sat back and watched Ukraine get pounded for months, including civilian targets,, while a steady stream of (largely non-Moscow) dead Russian boys comes home.  Do they need a false-flag to somehow shore up support?  Where did that come from?

What has fundamentally changed internal to Russia for them to start assassinating Putin supporters very publicly - in a freakin Moscow street(!?).  Further the 'minuses' in this are not small as to the West, and no doubt Russians: from mainstream media it looks like a 29 year old mother took her kid on holiday, blew up a high-profile Putin supporter Tom Clancy style, and then walked back over the border to Estonia with her 12 year old daughter - that is the best they could come up with for a "false flag"?!

None of this makes any freakin sense.  The FSB and Russian internal security look about as incompetent as possible.  Apparently one only need take the Kremlin tour and you can probably take a shot at Putin in the bathtub.  Seriously, I am not even sure how they could make a movie out of this hit, maybe a Saturday morning cartoon - Tasha and Her Hot Mom take a Trip to Moscow - Singalong Roadtrip

Someone in the know help me out - Is this an internal thing?  Is this the best the FSB could pull out of their handbag because the truth is worse?  Is this somehow going to convince the Russians to....dare we say it?....mobilize?!!  [Seriously, I am not even sure what that would look like at this point - a mass of untrained conscripts in WW2 equipment, trying to cover off an 800km front?]

So what if it was Ukrainian?  I mean technically an act outside of the LOAC but so was blowing a guy off a balcony in Kabul.  In fact if a Ukrainian version of SOE wants to start picking off Russian HVT how is that any different that all the decapitation strikes and attacks on the Ukrainian political level? 

You've hit most of the points I'd make about why this was likely some shabby internal thing between the players in siloviki-stan over money, pique or position. 

Edited August 23, 2022 by billbindc

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

You've hit most of the points I'd make about why this was likely some shabby internal thing between the players in siloviki-stan over money, pique or position. 

I can only hope the recent campaign of HIMARs/SOF/Workplace Safety Violations is contributing to this whole thing because no way does this go down in history as a Russian security "win".

Beyond the fact that there may be a afterschool childcare crisis in Ukrainian SOE right now I am not sure what the downside for Ukraine is at this point.

EDIT:  Counter narrative - it was Ukrainian "Take your Kids to Work Day"

Edited August 23, 2022 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the obvious route to go down for a lot of things, certainly weapons.  We've hit a plateau on all kinds of things that require energy to perform their function.  Efficiency is high for things like explosives and propellants.  Clever designs might eek out a bit more performance, but that is all.

I've been following small arms ammunition developments quite intensely for a few years now.  The new polymer based rounds that the US military is adopting are examples of eeking out relatively minor improvements.  This is no black powder to rim fire, to center fire.  Even the problematic caseless ammo concept wouldn't be more than a mild, though significant, improvement if it could be made practical.  On the other hand, having the equivalent of a 7.62 round propelled by the volume of charge found in a .22 round would be.  Or developing a small arm where a 3 or 4mm projectile could perform the same as a much larger one.  That's the sort of thing we could see if the brains in labcoats come up with the basic ingredients and the geeks with pencil protectors figure out how to employ it successfully.

Personally, I'm looking forward to this sort of stuff for more practical things such as transportation (including space based).

Steve

So a few years back I was asked what to watch out for, my answer was "Big 5" of defence technology:

- Unmanned

- C4ISR - integrated and connected everything

- AI/ML - next gen computing that can tie the first two together in ways we are still figuring out.

- Additive Manufacturing

- Military Energy

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

You've hit most of the points I'd make about why this was likely some shabby internal thing between the players in siloviki-stan over money, pique or position. 

Yup, or specifically my pet theory that this is messaging by the GRU to the RU Nats to tread lightly.

The_Capt... I am absolutely convinced that this was not an FSB inspired false flag attack.  It doesn't have the right elements, which is why it looks totally wrong from a false flag perspective.  Meaning, it doesn't walk or quack like a duck, so it probably isn't a duck.

In my scenario the FSB had a turd land on its doorstep.  I think they are trying to mold it into something potentially useful to their purpose, which is going about as well as one should expect from FSB improvisations.  They are flailing around for a solution to their immediate problem, which is they've got domestic problems out the wazoo that they need to deal with and they are running out of creativity and options.

The other reason I favor this being a GRU op is that it fits better with the agency motivations.  The FSB is responsible for keeping the Russian state together, the GRU is there to serve the interests of the military.  They are NOT the same thing.  So the GRU is not a team player, so it is totally in keeping with them to do something for their own perceived self interests while at the same time harming Russia as a whole.

This is why repressive regimes collapse.  The old video linked to a few pages ago with Blinken sitting at the table with Dugin made this exact point.  They are inherently unstable and not interested in the common good, even when it is truly in their best interests.

Steve

[sburke]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I guess I just don't get Russian mindset because I still cannot see the point of a false-flag op here - what is Russia undeciding that is in their interest?  They did not need an excuse to hit Ukrainian civilians, they executed them in the streets FFS, we are kinda past a Russian "Just War" argument here.

I get that this was clearly aimed at internal audiences, which could speak to some internal frictions as has been noted on this thread.  However, for the life of me I again do not see the point.  It has been well touted that 1) most Russians support this "special operation", up to a point and 2) the rest largely do not care.  Russians have sat back and watched Ukraine get pounded for months, including civilian targets,, while a steady stream of (largely non-Moscow) dead Russian boys comes home.  Do they need a false-flag to somehow shore up support?  Where did that come from?

What has fundamentally changed internal to Russia for them to start assassinating Putin supporters very publicly - in a freakin Moscow street(!?).  Further the 'minuses' in this are not small as to the West, and no doubt Russians: from mainstream media it looks like a 29 year old mother took her kid on holiday, blew up a high-profile Putin supporter Tom Clancy style, and then walked back over the border to Estonia with her 12 year old daughter - that is the best they could come up with for a "false flag"?!

None of this makes any freakin sense.  The FSB and Russian internal security look about as incompetent as possible.  Apparently one only need take the Kremlin tour and you can probably take a shot at Putin in the bathtub.  Seriously, I am not even sure how they could make a movie out of this hit, maybe a Saturday morning cartoon - Tasha and Her Hot Mom take a Trip to Moscow - Singalong Roadtrip

Someone in the know help me out - Is this an internal thing?  Is this the best the FSB could pull out of their handbag because the truth is worse?  Is this somehow going to convince the Russians to....dare we say it?....mobilize?!!  [Seriously, I am not even sure what that would look like at this point - a mass of untrained conscripts in WW2 equipment, trying to cover off an 800km front?]

So what if it was Ukrainian?  I mean technically an act outside of the LOAC but so was blowing a guy off a balcony in Kabul.  In fact if a Ukrainian version of SOE wants to start picking off Russian HVT how is that any different that all the decapitation strikes and attacks on the Ukrainian political level? 

oh no you missed it.  Here I'll correct that for you

a 12 year old girl took her mother on holiday, blew up a high-profile Putin supporter Tom Clancy style, and then walked back over the border to Estonia with her 29 year old mother

vicious insidious Ukrainian kids!

Edited August 23, 2022 by sburke

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I can only hope the recent campaign of HIMARs/SOF/Workplace Safety Violations is contributing to this whole thing because no way does this go down in history as a Russian security "win".

Beyond the fact that there may be a afterschool childcare crisis in Ukrainian SOE right now I am not sure what the downside for Ukraine is at this point.

EDIT:  Counter narrative - it was Ukrainian "Take your Kids to Work Day"

There's a tendency in Russia watchers to assume too much conspiratorial nous to the state. The idea that "Russia can't defend your family at home, so go fight for Kherson!" is on its face absurd and I simply don't believe that the FSB would add the complications inherent with a highly public car bombing to some sort of ultra nationalist house cleaning. Windows work just as well and don't bring the capability of the state into question.  My personal take is still that the precise who/what/why is a lot less important than the fact that players in the regime heartland think that a car bomb is something they can get away with. *That* is what's important. 

To Steve's point about the GRU: maybe. They are sloppy enough and dumb enough to do this in the misguided belief that it makes the FSB look bad. But it's less clear why they'd want to kill Dugin, who actually does have some traction within influential military circles. Also, the FSB would love nothing more than to be able to go to Putin with the news that the GRU was ****ing up the regime's stability. 

Edited August 23, 2022 by billbindc

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There's a tendency in Russia watchers to assume too much conspiratorial nous to the state. The idea that "Russia can't defend your family at home, so go fight for Kherson!" is on its face absurd and I simply don't believe that the FSB would add the complications inherent with a highly public car bombing to some sort of ultra nationalist house cleaning. Windows work just as well and don't bring the capability of the state into question.  My personal take is still that the precise who/what/why is a lot less important than the fact that players in the regime heartland think that a car bomb is something they can get away with. *That* is what's important. 

Well I learned at least one thing from my days in the Hindu Kush...you are doing well when you can get them to shoot at each other.

This looks like a indicator of internal instability when viewed through that lens - could be why FSB is scrambling with this Ukrainian MILF super-spy angle.

Edited August 23, 2022 by The_Capt

[kraze]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A long time ago, like 8 years or more past, it was possible to encounter an educated, Western acclimated Russian civilian who would argue that Russia was not a dictatorship and was, instead, a reasonably well functioning government like in the West.  This made it more difficult to discuss things that the Russian government did that were obviously anti-democraitc.  And so you'd wind up wasting enormous amounts of energy on the basics before having any hope of discussing the real issue.

Now, I don't think there's many Russians like this any more.  I doubt the masses who are totally ignorant of what a functioning representative government is like thinks the Russian government is anything but corrupt and repressive.  They might not fully appreciate how bad it is, but they likely recognize that things have been getting worse over the years and have gotten particularly worse since this war started.

This is important because it means that Putin has squandered most of the good will he built up with his own people over 15-20 years.  Just like he did with the West.  This is why Putin fears general mobilization.

The stupidity of this, of course, is that Ukraine could win this war even with minimal Western aid.  It would just take them a LOT longer and the suffering would be vastly worse.  Similarly, Russia has already lost this war and all it can do is increase the level of misery surrounding it.

Steve

Of course you'd waste a lot of effort to get through the basics because that so called "well educated, Western acclimated russian" knows the real state of things well enough. It's his ideology to convince you and everybody else otherwise.

Has been for centuries. Hence why there's no "Western acclimated" russians at all. They will always end up creating just another Brighton Beach wherever they are and will be waiting for Russia to come and occupy it.

Similarly to how every russian, educated or not, knows that his government is extremely corrupt. Because that russian chose it to be like so. And is happy about it.

In fact according to recent polls more than 60% of russians don't even understand why they need West with its values, about 30% think West is good to get something out of (probably just materialistic things) and only 2% russians think they need democracy.

2%.

putin built nothing good, Russia was always poor and uneducated (35% russians believe Sun rotates around the Earth in 2022). But they are all very good at lying to get what they want. Or westerners are too naive to believe that everybody out there want what they consider to be a "better" life.

But it's what all neighbor countries learned the hard way a long time ago and them... us talking about real Russia seemed so weird to you lot.

The only thing that is different between Russia yesterday and Russia today is that they stopped lying.

Edited August 23, 2022 by kraze

[keas66]

Seems like from Grigb's last few posts - the Russians are still trying to push out from the Kherson bridgehead  ...while their supply lines across the Dnieper  are under  attack  . They don't seem to think they have a problem ?  Ignoring reality ? or   is the situation on the ground not as bad as it looks for the Russians  . I don't understand  what they are doing currently if everything posted here about their vulnerabilities and the increasing strength of the AFU is actually true .

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Someone in the know help me out - Is this an internal thing?  Is this the best the FSB could pull out of their handbag because the truth is worse?  Is this somehow going to convince the Russians to....dare we say it?....mobilize?!!  [Seriously, I am not even sure what that would look like at this point - a mass of untrained conscripts in WW2 equipment, trying to cover off an 800km front?]

So what if it was Ukrainian?  I mean technically an act outside of the LOAC but so was blowing a guy off a balcony in Kabul.  In fact if a Ukrainian version of SOE wants to start picking off Russian HVT how is that any different that all the decapitation strikes and attacks on the Ukrainian political level

Russian regimes often appear (sorry for word) "autistic" for the outside world- they percept reality and think in their own, procedural ways. Darya Dugin could be a literal sacrificial animal killed on the altar of Great Russia. Her father would probably very much like this thought, if it only would be about somebody's else child.

Do such esoteric cause can prompt violent assassination attempt on a woman? Doubtful. But not unthinkable in current conditions. Note, that also at least one effect is obvious- mass media all around the world speculated for several days about this assassination. So,if  Russians needed to draw MM attention from something, they succeeded. I know- weak explanation, but knowing how ruthless Putin regime can be I am frankly inclined to believe in even more crazy theories.

Now we will see if tomorrow Russia will "retaliate" in any special way.

 

In Russia, this August is very hot:

 

Edited August 23, 2022 by Beleg85