How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

July 31 we scoffed at the notion that Ukraine had hit the Black Sea Fleet command building in Sevastopol. It had to be a false flag operation. Now I'm not so sure just what Ukraine is capable of.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

It's not only Walters. Steven S. visited Olenivka camp, where he theatrically inspected fragments of "GMLRS shell"...Jesus, what a shmonc without a grain of integrity.

 

Seagal is not a surprise.  Sometime after this war started I graduated him from Useful Idiot status to full blown Russian Agent.  He's on their payroll.

Steve

[keas66]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Special Kherson Cat has some nice videos posted, including this one of what the Kerch bridge looks like right now.  I wonder what proportion of these vehicles are from tourists bailing out of their cheap Crimean holiday and how many are rats leaving the sinking ship.

 

I am utterly amazed  - that Tourist Season was still ongoing  at Crimea !   . The level of dissociation (?)   in the minds of the Tourists  is mind boggling .

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Seems like someone got a new set of toys. Supposed to be Saky base, Crimea.

 

 

Holy Crap, they hit something big.

[Battlefront.com]

Looking at the videos of the Crimean strike uploaded so far, it appears there might have been at least two strikes.  Space between obvious sources of combustion seems to indicate this, but there's also a video that looks to have a flash just before a massive explosion.

The second possible strike looks like it might have hit a very large fuel depot.  The thick black smoke coming from it is indicative of burning fuel more than it is munitions.  I presume an airport of this size has a very large supply of aviation fuel on hand.

Steve

[asurob]

57 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Russian Naval Base -->  Russian Black Sea Fleet  . Historical meaning of Crimea to the Russians  - a bunch of reasons which seem to me  to make Crimea more of a hot spot for the Russians than  Belgorod . But don't worry about me - I'm only  just a little concerned about the initiation of WW3 ... I'm sure The Russians will take this in good humor and won't do anything silly  ,  right ?

shrug.  I could care less what sort of humor the Russians take it in.  They are in the find out phase of this war.  If they want the war to end all they have to do is withdraw back to pre 2014 borders.  It's pretty simple.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looking at the videos of the Crimean strike uploaded so far, it appears there might have been at least two strikes.  The second possible strike looks like it might have hit a very large fuel depot.  The thick black smoke coming from it is indicative of burning fuel more than it is munitions.  I presume an airport of this size had a very large supply of aviation fuel on hand.

Steve

corrected that for you.  

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

 

A well deserved round of applause to the folks in the Armed Forces of Ukraine!

This is the kind of news I like starting the day with.

P.S. I know of a certain bridge in that area that could also use a remodelling when the time is right.

[akd]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

It's not only Walters. Steven S. visited Olenivka camp, where he theatrically inspected fragments of "GMLRS shell"...Jesus, what a shmonc without a grain of integrity.

 

Hopefully there is one GMLRS set aside just for him.

[hcrof]

If the Ukrainians are saying they used a Ukrainian missile to hit the airbase, could it be tochka-u?

Edit: if so it would be a great warmup for the atacms act

Edited August 9, 2022 by hcrof

[Taranis]

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, Taranis said:

I go through this dump every time I go to the supermarket for shopping

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

A reminder that even inaccurate, but deliberate, artillery fire can have tactical influence.  In this video a Russian tank had to abandon its original position and then several others because it was obvious someone wanted them blown up.  Eventually they just give up and drive off:

And once again... a single tank, all on its own, probably responsible for an entire sector of front.  That shows not only Russia's acute manpower shortage, but also its shortage of armored vehicles.

Steve

This is UKR tank ) That's typical "treeplant wars", known from ATO times. Small unit, tank, BMP, SPG, mortar team advances slightly forward - shelled the enemy positions in some neighvour treeplant and withraws to own position also in the treeplant. Specific of the war in plain steppes.  

And here is Russian - the second video )

 

[Panserjeger]

 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

 

Ongoing, systematic degradation of RU military power without UKR suffering casualties.  Taking out command, logistics, arty via CB, and now going for the airfields.  I guess this is why UKR is fine being patient before launching major ground attacks.  

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

EDIT: add made in Ukraine equipment like Neptune

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting that a Ukrainian military official said that the weapon used was of Ukrainian manufacture.  I have to say I don't believe it. 

Despite locals write they didn't see any missiles on web-cameras, which set on many beaches around, this really could be Neptunes. This missile can hit not only ships but coastal objects by GPS. Also let recall, in previous days UKR struck with HIMARS and HARM more than dozen of SAM and radars in Kherson oblast. After this we could move Neptun launcher somewhere to Ochakiv area and to send missiles in appeard "window". Neptun has a range in 280 km, so its enough to hit Russian base from Ochakiv.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[riptides]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

Despite locals write they didn't see any missiles on web-cameras, which set on many beaches around, this really could be Neptunes. This missile can hit not only ships but coastal objects by GPS. Also let recall, in previous days UKR struck with HIMARS and HARM more than dozen of SAM and radars. After this we can move Neptune launcher somewhere to Ochakiv area and to send missiles in appeard "window". Neptun has a range in 280 km, so its enough to hit Russian base from Ochakiv.

I am impressed, seriously impressed, with the strategic leadership of the UKR.

 

[Haiduk]

49 minutes ago, hcrof said:

If the Ukrainians are saying they used a Ukrainian missile to hit the airbase, could it be tochka-u?

Edit: if so it would be a great warmup for the atacms act

Tochka-U is Soviet missile with 120 km range. Impossible. Neptun - enough can. See above.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Despite locals write they didn't see any missiles on web-cameras, which set on many beaches around, this really could be Neptunes. This missile can hit not only ships but coastal objects by GPS. Also let recall, in previous days UKR struck with HIMARS and HARM more than dozen of SAM and radars in Kherson oblast. After this we could move Neptun launcher somewhere to Ochakiv area and to send missiles in appeard "window". Neptun has a range in 280 km, so its enough to hit Russian base from Ochakiv.

Yes, I do think the HARM attacks were related to the attack on the airbase.  Neptune is a possibility, but I didn't think it was capable of doing this sort of damage or striking successfully from so far away.  It also seems more likely than something home built being put onto a Tochka-U rocket.

Whatever Ukraine used to hit the base, it worked and there's sure to be more of it.

This might also be something that the US is using to gauge reactions for sending ATACMS.  If Russian reactions to this aren't all that bad, then ATACMS is a lot "safer" to give Ukraine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, riptides said:

I am impressed, seriously impressed, with the strategic leadership of the UKR.

Yup.  Boy did Putin pick the wrong people to mess with on soooooooo many levels

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

If they wanted to start WW3 they should have done it when they still had a functional land army. At this point the Finns will take St Petersburg in week. And there is still the fascinating question of how many of their missiles would make it off the launcher. Be a bit embarrassing to to start the third world war with a fizzle.

Putting the "third world" into the "third world war"  

[acrashb]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

So what is their reaction going to be other than outrage and/or "defeatist" talk?

They will call (more than previously) for escalation to WMD, especially given they believe Crimea is Russian territory.

The call for escalation will go unanswered, but will unnerve segments of the Russian population.

[Seedorf81]

Since the Russian army is trying to get every Tom, Dick and Harry to the frontline, they most like scavenged guard-units too. And I bet they thought that this airbase would be a safe place, so security may have been (a lot) less than required.

I tend to think this airfield-attack was Neptune, but would it be possible that the Ukranian army had it's own version of the WW2 Long Range Desert Group/SAS? That they infiltrated that airfield and blew the place up?

Probably not, but it would be even more sensational.. 

 

 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Seedorf81

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  Boy did Putin pick the wrong people to mess with on soooooooo many levels

Steve

Super villian and certified genius Putin getting  whupped by a comedian and his friends.  Better than fiction.

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, I do think the HARM attacks were related to the attack on the airbase.  Neptune is a possibility, but I didn't think it was capable of doing this sort of damage or striking successfully from so far away.  It also seems more likely than something home built being put onto a Tochka-U rocket.

Whatever Ukraine used to hit the base, it worked and there's sure to be more of it.

This might also be something that the US is using to gauge reactions for sending ATACMS.  If Russian reactions to this aren't all that bad, then ATACMS is a lot "safer" to give Ukraine.

Steve

Even with complicated route the range is 264 km (see the map below) - too far to limit in 280 (but also theer was info about 285 and even 300 km). Neptune has ability of GPS homing as well as active radar homing. It can receive targeting from radar Mineral-E or GPS/Sat through battlefield info system Delta, fully compatible with NATO standarts. So, I don't see any obstacles to hit fuel tank on airfield and FAB stockpile. 

 

But here is more interesting either hint, or just friendly trolling. Taras Chmut, the head of Back-and-Alive fund and very well informed about our military sphere - here his reaction on this strike

If this true, I can say only that - "Hrim-2" (eng. Thunder). UKR answer to Iskander, developing for the costs of KSA. But this is some sort of fantastic. There was never heard about this project since 2019, when engine was demonstrated. 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Haiduk