How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

AI issued "apology". https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/amnesty-regrets-distress-caused-by-report-rebuking-ukraine-2022-08-07/ and by apology I mean.

Quote

While we fully stand by our findings, we regret the pain caused.

Basically "I'm sorry you're offended."

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

AI issued "apology". https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/amnesty-regrets-distress-caused-by-report-rebuking-ukraine-2022-08-07/ and by apology I mean.

Basically "I'm sorry you're offended."

Incredibly stupid move by Amnesty. It shows their arrogance. 

[OldSarge]

It is that time of the week again and Perun drops a new video.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Opening Words
00:00:31 -- Russia's Most Feared Conventional Weapons
00:01:57 -- What Am I Covering?
00:02:45 -- Doctrine & History
00:03:03 -- Historic Aerospace Talent
00:04:25 -- Soviet Rocketry and Missile Programs
00:05:42 -- Rocketry as a Response
00:08:14 -- A Rocket and Missile Force
00:09:14 -- Doctrine and Usage
00:10:41 -- The Competing Forces
00:10:58 -- The Cutting Edge
00:13:31 -- The Kalibr Showpiece
00:15:11 -- The Old
00:16:34 -- The Improvised
00:18:47 -- Ukraine - the Old, the New, and yet to come
00:22:08 -- Missile Use In Ukraine
00:22:16 -- The Opening Salvos
00:24:22 -- Escalation
00:25:42 -- Send in the Museum Pieces
00:27:52 -- Note on Targeting
00:30:15 -- The Rebuttal
00:33:13 -- Performance Observations
00:33:28 -- Reliability and Performance
00:36:50 -- Targeting and Accuracy
00:41:18 -- Ukrainian use of GMLRS
00:43:59 -- Sustainability?
00:44:08 -- "They're running out"
00:45:39 -- Evaluating the Thesis
00:49:35 -- Production Capacity
00:52:53 -- So is this Sustainable?
00:54:54 -- Lessons for the others
00:55:03 -- ISR is Central
00:57:14 -- Consumption Rates
00:58:42 -- Capability Requirements
01:01:45 -- Potential Importance
01:03:13 -- Conclusion
01:04:34 -- Channel Update

[danfrodo]

32 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Incredibly stupid move by Amnesty. It shows their arrogance. 

So a once widely respected organization destroys itself in one fell swoop.  Nice job RU bot/CEO.  Maybe they should bring in Noam Chomsky also.  I have a feeling their grass roots contibutors will mostly be pulling out.  But Putin will happily make up the difference.  This org is now dead to me. 

 

[Haiduk]

DefMon assesment of Russian success in Pisky due to geolocatin of their videos

The red markers are where i've seen Ru forces geolocated. The latest one is the one with a red circle, this is the location where ru-militants could be seen heroically trying gather foot for his comrades [he meant a video, where the member of DPR "Pyatnashka"  brigade blows up on antipersonnel mine]

For my opinion, Russian control over zone around western edge of the runway ("Anthill" position) is doubtful. There were neither videos, nor mentions in social media about this

 

Edited August 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

My apologies, Huba.  You will get the gold star if major Kharkiv offensive occurs, not the dapper & dastardly Dan/CA.

Sebastopol?  -- Now you are really getting optimistic! 

Many accusations of dastardly, dapper hasn't come up once, ever. 

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

AI issued "apology". https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/amnesty-regrets-distress-caused-by-report-rebuking-ukraine-2022-08-07/ and by apology I mean.

Basically "I'm sorry you're offended."

It does not really matter what they have to say now. Their reputation as a human rights organization is shattered now that they are blaming the victim for defending themselves.

All the kings horses and all the kings men won't be able to put Amnesty International's reputation together again.

Edited August 7, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

This makes me more hopeful that the first we hear of other presents for the Russians will be the pictures of the craters.

[Huba]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Many accusations of dastardly, dapper hasn't come up once, ever. 

You need a new avatar

[dan/california]

I wouldn't recognize myself as anything other than the chicken hawk. It is a very old, very funny cartoon character for anyone who didn't grow up watching American TV.

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Yesterday they claimed initially "assault of Blahodatne, which will open the way to Partyzanske and after it will be free road to Mykolaiv by the forces of 108th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assault division ". Today our General Staff reported about unsuccsessful Russian attempt of advance from Vasyl'ky to Blahodatne and Russian propagandists changed own mind "we didn't assault Blahodatne, just artillery is bombarding it". 

I wonder, for example, Deepstate map shows Blahodatne like occupied by Russians. LiveUAmap, as controlled by UKR. Deepstate usually more accurate. Also Blahodatne and Partyzanske divided by irrigation canal. The bridge through the canal lays in Zasillia village, 8 km west from Blahodatne, so Russians should to attack in that direction. Or to use some engineer bridge vehicles for crossing the canal to develop own hypothetical success toward Partyzanske

DefMon map for illustration

This is what Girkin said today at 5 PM

Quote

On the Kherson front, our troops went on the offensive west of Snigirevka in the direction of Nikolaev.
There is some progress. How deep is not yet clear to me.

South of Donetsk, our troops are attacking in the direction of Ugledar. The result is still unknown.

Offensive battles continued on the Donetsk front, in the Bakhmut area, as well as in the Kharkiv area. There have been no reports of significant advances yet.

And this is hat he said at 7:40 PM

Quote

Information about the progress in the area of the village of Blagodatnoye was not confirmed. During yesterday's battle, our units failed to move forward, they retreated to their original positions. There was no talk of an offensive - there was a "reconnaissance by combat". The enemy, however, had serious losses exceeding our losses. There's a lull there today.

We will see. 

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

well, Dan/CA will get a gold star if it turns out that Kharkiv is the real offensive.  I think he's the one that suggested hitting there once RU moved all its forces west.  So where would RU get forces to bolster Kharkiv?  And what would UKR objectives be?   Might be just to get RU forces out of arty range of the city.  Maybe they have big plan to take Kupyansk and totally unhinge a huge section of the front.

Kherson would still happen I would think, just at a slower pace.  the one thing that we can safely say is that UKR now acts and RU reacts.

AFAIR Girkin claimed RU did find some forces but relatively modest. Regarding UKR objective - the best case scenario for UKR is capture of Kupyansk. It is critical to the RU railroad junction point. Capturing it will collapse the whole thing there including Izum grouping

Kherson indeed will happen anyway. But probably closer to the end of month.

[Huba]

UA uses Romanian 122mm ammo produced in 2022. I wonder if CEE countries combined can outproduce Russia when it comes to artillery ammo. At least  when combined with NATO 155, the answer has to be yes.. While RU has the vast stores of USSR, they will run out at some point, and will have to sustain themselves  with what can be produced. Another argument that long war is RU doom.

 

Edited August 7, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

Russia-Ukraine updates: Russian-backed official dies after being shot (msn.com)

 

Katerina Gubareva, a spokesperson for Russian-backed authorities, confirmed Gura had "succumbed to his injuries," on Telegram.

Vladimir Leontyev, the Russian-backed head of the Kakhovka district administration, told Russisan state-run Interfax that Gura was shot with an automatic weapon as he was going to work on Saturday morning.

Russian-held Nova Kakhovka is located 80 kilometers (50 miles) east of the city of Kherson along the Dnieper River. Several officials appointed by Moscow in the region have become targets for assassination in recent months.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

DefMon assesment of Russian success in Pisky due to geolocatin of their videos

The red markers are where i've seen Ru forces geolocated. The latest one is the one with a red circle, this is the location where ru-militants could be seen heroically trying gather foot for his comrades [he meant a video, where the member of DPR "Pyatnashka"  brigade blows up on antipersonnel mine]

For my opinion, Russian control over zone around western edge of the runway ("Anthill" position) is doubtful. There were neither videos, nor mentions in social media about this

 

You are correct. RU Nats are completely silent about Anthill. Also due to RU comments I believe they hit hard Bridge Republic but did not attempt to take it. So, it is contested in my book (there should be still some UKR forces, but I suspect they will not hold full scale assault). Also, UKR are still holding heavily fortified main defensive position. 

I am still preoccupied with family staff, so I took DefMon map and corrected it.

 

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

DefMon assesment of Russian sucess in Pisky due to geolocatin of their videos

The red markers are where i've seen Ru forces geolocated. The latest one is the one with a red circle, this is the location where ru-militants could be seen heroically trying gather foot for his comrades [he meant a video, where the member of DPR "Pyatnashka"  brigade blows up on antipersonnel mine]

For my opinion, Russian control over zone around western edge of the runway ("Anthill" position) is doubtful. There were neither videos, nor mentions in social media about this

 

So our real time test of the "RU spent offensively" theory continues.  After lots of noise & panic & such..... RU has moved maybe a kilometer??  Current situation favors the 'spent' camp. 

They have attacks in other areas but don't seem to be taking anything in those attacks.  So the ~1km advance seems to be it, after a week. 

[danfrodo]

33 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia-Ukraine updates: Russian-backed official dies after being shot (msn.com)

 

Katerina Gubareva, a spokesperson for Russian-backed authorities, confirmed Gura had "succumbed to his injuries," on Telegram.

Vladimir Leontyev, the Russian-backed head of the Kakhovka district administration, told Russisan state-run Interfax that Gura was shot with an automatic weapon as he was going to work on Saturday morning.

Russian-held Nova Kakhovka is located 80 kilometers (50 miles) east of the city of Kherson along the Dnieper River. Several officials appointed by Moscow in the region have become targets for assassination in recent months.

I should not take joy from someone's murder.  But in this case and others like it I will make an exception.  Kudos to the partisans!  I wonder how much latent  partisan power is just waiting for its moment to strike in concert w UAF operations.  I guess we'll see, and probably soon.

Edited August 7, 2022 by danfrodo
tupo

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

And then reversed The Battle of The Sudden Flame will happen, UA will unleash ATACMS, F-16s and NASAMS, drive the orcs back and besiege Sevastopol

My prophecy that it is impossible to descibe this war without making references to Tolkien's work is haunting here again.

 

Drone warfare is brutal and unfair, ep. 1000+ (really close zoom):

https://twitter.com/cryogenicbreez/status/1556307752473034754

 

[JonS]

10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I should not take joy from someone's murder.

“I have never killed any one, but I have read some obituary notices with great satisfaction.”

[Grigb]

22 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So our real time test of the "RU spent offensively" theory continues.  After lots of noise & panic & such..... RU has moved maybe a kilometer??  Current situation favors the 'spent' camp. 

They have attacks in other areas but don't seem to be taking anything in those attacks.  So the ~1km advance seems to be it, after a week. 

It is even worse.

• Due to info from Friday the loss of control in Pisky most likely was just retreat from forward defensive position to the main. The main was just far away and nobody knew about the main until much later. All together It created impression that UKR defense was collapsing.
• RU avoids assaulting fortified positions. Neither Pisky main position, no Bridge republic not Anthil neither taken nor assaulted yet. RU looks like they intentionally avoid assaulting defended positions. Just wait till arty levels the hole place and UKR leaves. 

[Grigb]

I am parsing Ru nats posts to keep up myself. But some posts need to be shared asap. Izum anecdote.

Quote

This is what military drivers wrote to me from Izum. Situation. There are two working trucks left in the ammunition supply platoon, the rest are either destroyed or broken and are under repair. The senior sends trucks daily for loading, then they go to Izyum and deliver the ammo for artillery to the front. But out of nowhere, Vaishniki [Military Road Police appears] and began question [drivers]... And to **** up the drivers - the headlight is not on, the numbers are not attached, the documents are not so decorated, not dressed in uniform, etc. In principle, I would [say] **** him [and forget about it]. The driver listened to the lecture, received a fine and drove on. But the valiant Vaishniki went further - they began to put cars on the GSPZN (temporary parking penalty translating from army to civilian). And today the real situation is that artillery under the Izum is ****ing in need of shells. The driver takes them there, but he is stopped by a traffic cop and gets ****ed for documents are not in order. And what does a [bad] Vaishnik do? That's right - he arrests a truck that carries shells to the front for artillery [and put it] at the impound lot. Yes, yes. He puts one of the remaining two truck (in the ammunition supply platoon)  that carry ammunition to the front line at the impound lot. No admonitions have any effect on the Vaishnik . Do you think that's all? Two more days later, the remaining truck of the same platoon is also sent to the parking penalty. The shells did not reach the Izyum front line. Finita la comedia...

Death of Stalin 2. 

[Grigb]

Yep, RU offensive in south direction is completely stalled.

Quote

There are positional battles in Piski, Marinka, on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka.

 

[Beleg85]

Himars'o clock again.

 

21 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I am parsing Ru nats posts to keep up myself. But some posts need to be shared asap. Izum anecdote.

Quote

This is what military drivers wrote to me from Izum. Situation. There are two working trucks left in the ammunition supply platoon, the rest are either destroyed or broken and are under repair. The senior sends trucks daily for loading, then they go to Izyum and deliver the ammo for artillery to the front. But out of nowhere, Vaishniki [Military Road Police appears] and began question [drivers]... And to **** up the drivers - the headlight is not on, the numbers are not attached, the documents are not so decorated, not dressed in uniform, etc. In principle, I would [say] **** him [and forget about it]. The driver listened to the lecture, received a fine and drove on. But the valiant Vaishniki went further - they began to put cars on the GSPZN (temporary parking penalty translating from army to civilian). And today the real situation is that artillery under the Izum is ****ing in need of shells. The driver takes them there, but he is stopped by a traffic cop and gets ****ed for documents are not in order. And what does a [bad] Vaishnik do? That's right - he arrests a truck that carries shells to the front for artillery [and put it] at the impound lot. Yes, yes. He puts one of the remaining two truck (in the ammunition supply platoon)  that carry ammunition to the front line at the impound lot. No admonitions have any effect on the Vaishnik . Do you think that's all? Two more days later, the remaining truck of the same platoon is also sent to the parking penalty. The shells did not reach the Izyum front line. Finita la comedia...

Death of Stalin 2.

Hillarious story. Wonder what was military police rationale...maybe they wanted a small bribe?

[womble]

22 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Yes, yes. He puts one of the remaining two truck (in the ammunition supply platoon)  that carry ammunition to the front line at the impound lot. No admonitions have any effect on the Vaishnik . Do you think that's all? Two more days later, the remaining truck of the same platoon is also sent to the parking penalty.

This has to be a UKR patriot who stayed behind in his police unit with the intent of disrupting what he could, entirely according to the letter of the rules and regs, knowing that the RU troopers would be shoddy and breaking all the rules.

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Himars'o clock again.

Hmm...bridges aren't supposed be flammable (except that Chinese one, I guess).

Edited August 7, 2022 by akd