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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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8 minutes ago, poesel said:

How to find enemy drones and if that fight is autonomous or human controlled are the problems that need to be solved.

Microphone and pattern recognition software to listen for their distinct noise. Eventually they will make silent drones but that would not be cheap and defeat the whole purpose of having cheap expendable drones. 

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Here is video from Butovo mine that RU recently captured. It claims it is from assault, but I believe only arty shots from assault. Everything else is from reporter visit. 

They say that they used remote deminer charge to breach minefield and push from unexpected direction (path they walk in).  Apart from that there is nothing important (some patriotic BS).

 

 

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4 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I wonder if Biden would be OK with sending this type of aircraft to Ukraine without fear of Russian reprisals? 😒

How many Ukrainians have private pilot licenses?

SOCOM Orders Cropduster Attack Planes from L3Harris Technologies
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2022/08/socom-orders-cropduster-attack-planes-l3harris-technologies/375234/

haha, if the Ukrainians turn down the A-10 they will defiantly not be interested in these.

Incorporating a new air platform is such a big undertaking tying up a lot of resources they won't take it without significant gains. And the low bar seems to be F-16 modern variants.

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6 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I wonder if Biden would be OK with sending this type of aircraft to Ukraine without fear of Russian reprisals? 😒

How many Ukrainians have private pilot licenses?

SOCOM Orders Cropduster Attack Planes from L3Harris Technologies
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2022/08/socom-orders-cropduster-attack-planes-l3harris-technologies/375234/

The key word in the General's remarks is "permissive". The airspace in Ukraine is anything but a permissive environment. Such platforms would be coffins for their pilots if UKR tried to use them as CAS against RU's AD setup. They can't even use the high tech fast-movers or choppers over RU lines, as things stand, and if the AD is degraded enough to use these Air Tractors (the name does have a nice UKR vibe, I admit :) ), the jets that the UKR AF already has will be having a field day already.

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31 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Absolutely heartwarming video, TMonkeyKing.  I laughed, I cried w joy, a sublime experience. Watching those orcs scurrying away from the scene was a true delight.  And a whole bunch of much needed RU supplies either up in smoke or stuck in derailed railcars.  And this is the rail line that's gonna feed an offensive to Kryvhi rhi?

@The_MonkeyKing

This is old video from Russia for 2014, explosion on theie training range.

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18 minutes ago, Grigb said:

@Haiduk can you please verify Сергій Гнезділов facebook post?

[UPDATE] Do not want to post anything till verified.

If this guy from there I don't see a reasons to untrust him. Other our sourses several days ago wrote we have lack of ammunition on this direction. There were several huge explosion in Avdiivka in previous days, maybe ammunition dumps were destroyed. Locals from Donetsk reported yesterday about several dozens shells on the city outskirt -in comparison with 6500 shells in Pisky for a day this is nothing

Edited by Haiduk
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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

If this guy from there I don't see a reasons to untrust him. Other our sourses several days ago wrote we have lack of ammunition on this direction. There were several huge explosion in Avdiivka in previous days, maybe ammunition dumps were destroyed. Locals from Donetsk reported yesterday about several dozens shells on the city outskirt -in comparison with 6500 shells in Pisky for a day this is nothing

Ok, guys, the loss of Pisky is imminent with heavy UKR losses. All nearby defensive positions are also in difficult positions unless UKR army sorts out the ammo problem. Basically, RU broke through because UKR arty is mostly silent. UKR command tries to stabilize situation with men, and it helps for a time being but eventually RU grind them as well.

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1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Ok, guys, the loss of Pisky is imminent with heavy UKR losses. All nearby defensive positions are also in difficult positions unless UKR army sorts out the ammo problem. Basically, RU broke through because UKR arty is mostly silent. UKR command tries to stabilize situation with men, and it helps for a time being but eventually RU grind them as well.

Ouch.  So this is what it feels like when your ammo dump gets hit.  Not good.  I hope UKR can stabilize ASAP.  I am not disturbed by losing the terrain but am disturbed by the "heavy UKR losses".

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50 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Ok, guys, the loss of Pisky is imminent with heavy UKR losses.

He didn't say in own article that Pisky lost, but looks enough big part of it under enemy control.

There was other info as if "my familiar told me from there"  - situation really tough, we withdrew from positions, which turned out into the Moon landscape, but among losses mostly wounded and we continue hold positions.

This guy, the serviceman wrote this

Translation: "Republic" still stand.

He meant famous since 2014-2015 strongpoint "The Bridge Repuplic" under the not completed overpass approx on the mid of Pisky.

PS. From Bakhmut direction I've read the same infortmation - success of Russians maintained by significant advantage in artillery. I've written yesterday about enemy grouping there and I can't say they have something outstanding of arty. If so, we probably have even less, then relatively humble Russian/DPR number. Modern 155 mm mostly go to artillery brigades and air-assault troops. Most of mech,brigades maybe got 1-2 batteries and not all. Motorized infantry and reserve brigades looks like still use Soviet systems with their lack of 152 mm ammunition. 122 mm I suppose in some better situation 

Edited by Haiduk
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UKR air defense in first time managed to intercept 7 from 8 Kh-101 cruise missiles, launched sevaral hours ago by Russian Tu-95 over Caspian sea. 6 missiles were intersepted by SAMs, one - by the fighter jet. Alas, one missile hit SAM in Lviv oblast.  

Kh-101 has reduced visibility for radars, so this is not easy target.

Edited by Haiduk
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45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

He didn't say in own article that Pisky lost, but looks enough big part of it under enemy control.

There was other info as if "my familiar told me from there"  - situation really tough, we withdrew from positions, which turned out into the Moon landscape, but among losses mostly wounded and we continue hold positions.

This guy, the serviceman wrote this

Translation: "Republic" still stand.

He meant famous since 2014-2015 strongpoint "The Bridge Repuplic" under the not completed overpass approx on the mid of Pisky.

PS. From Bakhmut direction I've read the same infortmation - success of Russians maintained by significant advantage in artillery. I've written yesterday about enemy grouping there and I can't say they have something outstanding of arty. If so, we probably have even less, then relatively humble Russian/DPR number. Modern 155 mm mostly go to artillery brigades and air-assault troops. Most of mech,brigades maybe got 1-2 batteries and not all. Motorized infantry and reserve brigades looks like still use Soviet systems with their lack of 152 mm ammunition. 122 mm I suppose in some better situation 

Thank you!

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4 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

This engineering work can provide some protection to the ferry, it will obscure the SAR radar surveillances. I will be no surprise the two bridges are under 24/7 surveillances of MQ-4s, so maybe RUS are using the array of pyramidal radar reflectors to hide troops movement across the water via ferry.

Of course obscure the surveillance on the river is not enough, they need more engineering work to extend the protection to ferry entry/exit point, vehicle assembling area, etc.

They might work as bright decoys for radar guided missiles, but I don't think they're concealing anything from anybody.  They probably look like a nice set of calibration targets from the sky, and you can't really move them around to make someone think the bridge is somewhere else. There's also no shortage of optical observations going on - they're just another cope cage.

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3 hours ago, billbindc said:

 

If Ukraine is pulling a Pas de Calais in Kherson, it's certainly not stinting on the misdirection.

 

Oh this is some good psyops for sure.  Gotta be making the occupiers and traitors rather uncomfortable.

It seems very clear that the damage to the bridges was part of this campaign, not an attempt to put them out of commission permanently. 

Brilliant moves.

Steve

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