How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1552942531842871296?s=20&t=y8yxZtdMUhiUIs6WqB6fQg

The fuq is this top attack system? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bofors/Nexter_Bonus?

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

As I said, a combination of all those factors, but in my opinion with killing the enemy as the most important one. In this particular war the Russian mood will start to change when the Ukrainian artillery is starting to slaughter more and more Russian soldiers that can't be replaced and will cause a steady stream of body bags that can't be hidden anymore from public view. Despite all the semantics (not yours) that's what will bring the decison. Killing your enemy.

So I have been thinking about the fundamental measure in warfare.  In physics we have the meter, the second and the gram - all framed by the speed of light in a vacuum.  Within information theory the famous “bit”.  Chemistry has the “degree”.  In economics we have the mighty $.  Almost every field of study can be boiled down to a few fundamental units.

So what is the fundamental unit of warfare?  And I have not found it yet.  First response is “body count”, or a death…easy.  Problem is that as a unit it does not track. The body count does not directly correlate to the course or outcome in too many cases.  We have had wars of extermination in which body count did become the basic unit, such as the Mongol invasions. 

However, we have had wars with millions of dead, like WW1, but it was not those deaths that determined who won or lost.  WW1 ended due to economic exhaustion, to which loss of human capital was a factor but not the deciding factor.  We have also had endless wars where the body count did not seem to matter, like Vietnam or Afghanistan.

Further we have had wars that were decisively determined with very low body counts, such as the Falklands.

So “killing” appears as a means or way, not an end.  It can give an indication but is not determinative.  If war is a collision of certainty, then it follows that the fundamental unit is a measure of that collision.  Will has to be central to that but Will is an incredibly complex and squishy concept with a lot of layers.  I have played with the idea of a “wit” as placeholder but have not got a bead on what it actually looks like or how to measure it.

Regardless, the biggest problem with “a kill” as the fundamental unit is what does one do when it does not work?  Easy answer is “more killing” up and including “all of them” but we all know that extermination not only has blowback in the community of humanity, it deeply affects internally.  

Killing does affect collective will but it is not a direct relationship, unless you completely remove that collective - and even here it might not work as the “idea” of the will of an exterminated collective can outlive the people who came up with it…like Christianity.

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by The_Capt

[Grigb]

Fresh Girkin assessment

Quote

On the situation at the front

Now there are two most "hot spots": the Donetsk front and the central part of the Kherson Front (along the Ingulets river).

On the Donetsk front, our troops achieved tactical successes in two days of offensive battles (the most significant - the day before yesterday, on the first day of the offensive). We managed to advance in two places: to the north of Maryinka, UKR fled from the mine vent shaft and ours occupied this defensive node. We also managed to capture a number of field strongpoints between Krasnogorovka and Peski. A slight advance took place yesterday in the area of Avdiivka.

However, the front of the AFU is not broken through anywhere, the wedges into the enemy's defense are relatively shallow. (For now, at least). The AFU is suffering heavy losses from massive artillery fire. Our losses (as I am informed) are significantly less and this is already good.

The enemy launched another missile attack on ammunition depots tonight and in the morning. Objects in the Ilovaysk area and in the city itself are hit and detonated.

In general, as I wrote earlier, I do not expect serious successes in this direction - the enemy is defending on long-term positions echeloned deep, and our infantry is very few to carry out deep wedges after initial successes. They will "slowly gnaw through" until they run into a solid urban area, and then - bloody street battles for both sides. As a result - "stucking" at the next line of defense.

On the Kherson front: confirmation of statements that our troops completely recaptured Andreevka and threw the AFU behind the river.Ingulets - did not receive it yesterday. Fierce fighting is now continuing in this area. The enemy is launching artillery and rocket attacks on the village of Chkalovo (in the depth of our defense, the direction to Berislav), which is probably the closest operational target of this AFU offensive. Our artillery and aviation, in turn, "iron" the front and rear facilities of the enemy.

The day before yesterday, yesterday and today, sporadic shelling of Russian territory by enemy artillery continued. Border military units and settlements in the Kursk and Bryansk regions were shelled.

No information was received from other sites.

P.S. To the request regarding "why don't I comment on the release of Novolugansky?" - I answer that there is now a secondary direction, the enemy left the village after the surrender of the Uglegorsk thermal power plant without persistent fighting, clearing the resulting tactical "bag". It is much more important to fight in the Artemivsk direction, but there - in the best case - after some time fighting will begin on the outskirts of the city, turned by the enemy into the main line of defense.

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

There is a development among RU Nats. They are discussing that soon there will be fake UKR videos about RU torturing POW and civilian massacre akin to Bucha (by the timing it could be right before this castration video).  

So, the video about POW appeared. Looks like @Haiduk is right, soon we will get videos with civilians...

[Beleg85]

There was a massive expolsion in Olenivka prison/filtration camp, where POW's from AZOV (amon others) were kept. Reportedly 53 people died, both sides accuse each other, with Russians saying it was HIMARS attack.

It seems very unlikely UA did this. They knew locations of almost all filtration camps, and this particular one was almost certainly known before, it had long walls and barbed wires. But it cannot be 100% excluded they simply used them as human shields and UA intel failed. Hard to tell for now.

If thos thoery is right, Russians, being frustrated they cannot defend against new rockets, are seem o be resorting to centuries-long tactics of killing prisoners in return/to protect their depots. Additional benefit for them is they silence uncomfortable defenders of Mariupol, who could potentially serve as source of info on theri crimes. They may even murder prisoners before and then do a cover-up (this version of Biletskij, commander of AZOV movement). Anyway, it has very strong Katyń vibes to me...

Another barbarity.

 

PS>There is reportedly video (not seen it and not gonna to) that castrated prisoner was shot immediatelly after.  Really, Russia is doing literally everything to sabotage its own war effort.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Beleg85

[The_MonkeyKing]

newest podcast burst:

How Russia Engineered the Perfect Gas Crisis
https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/analysis-of-the-war-in-ukraine-july-28-2022

WAR ON THE ROCKS: UKRAINE’S WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY?
https://warontherocks.com/2022/07/ukraines-window-of-opportunity/

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[The_MonkeyKing]

UKR is starting to have not insignificant amounts of leo1 platforms:

also the Gepards are leo1

[Grigb]

Rosstat about RU population trend

Quote

Rosstat reported a record reduction in the population of Russia

Russia continues its free fall into the demographic abyss, fixing absolute records of the speed at which the permanent population of the country is declining. In January-May 2022, permanent residents of the Russian Federation decreased by 430.3 thousand people, and the total population fell to 145.1 million people - the minimum since the annexation of Crimea, Rosstat reported in the monthly report "On the socio-economic situation" of the country.

Compared to the same period in 2021, the rate at which the population in Russia is decreasing has increased by 1.6 times, and if compared with 2020, it has almost tripled.

On average, the country lost 86 thousand permanent residents every month, which has never been observed in the entire modern history, it follows from statistics. Excluding Crimea, the population of Russia is near the historical lows shown in 2008 - 142.7 million people. The process of population reduction in Russia will continue, and by 2050, 133 million people will remain in the country. @moscowtimes_ru

[Grigb]

I remember there was a discussion earlier if RU use two-man crews in tanks. Confirmed. RU propagandist today:

Quote

Of course, if 3 tanks out of 10 shoot in a tank company, if incomplete crews (not three, but two people), if there is no communication between the tanks, if the company commander has only the skills to check the personnel's duffel bag at the review, the tank company moves blindly, without any reconnaissance from a drone, then of course, two pickups with an ATGM, corrected by a drone, having conventional "Buafengs" can not only stop this company, but also defeat it. So often happened in the war in the Donbass and SMO.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

48 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bofors/Nexter_Bonus?

Nope, you can see the approach. The projectile is climbing before the sub-munition separates. Also there was no parachute. 

I think the best guess is a smart mine like the US "hornet".

[Lethaface]

5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Nope, you can see the approach. The projectile is climbing before the sub-munition separates. Also there was no parachute. 

I think the best guess is a smart mine like the US "hornet".

Bonus doesnt have a parachute from what I could read on Wiki, not sure if it is really climbing or just looks like that. Anyway, was just a guess.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Lethaface

[Beleg85]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

h for sure.  Putin knows he needs Kadyrov, so Kadyrov gets what he wants.  The thing I'm focused on here is that Kadyrov knows that getting his "warriors" back is important, so Putin gives him preferential treatment. Kadyrov is playing the autocratic ruler game correctly.  Putin, on the other hand, isn't (see above).  If Putin could get Kadyrov back all the guys he's asking for and still secure the release of another dozen or two captured Asiatic POWs.  It's not like Russia has a lack of bargaining chips (aka more than a million kidnapped Ukrainian civilians).

Bottom line, I see this as being an indicator of how much Putin's practical sense of self preservation has eroded over the years.  His lack of attention to detail is definitely going to bite him in the arse.

Yes, definitelly Putin get out of touch of reality. He is sane, but the problem is he is sitting, to put it metaphorically, closed in a chapel of glorious leaders of Russian history. There are maybe dozen or so busts there- Peter I The Great is most exposed, Catherine II too. On the sides are busts of Stalin (powerful but less valued), Alexander III (crushed liberals), maybe Ivan IV, First Romanovs. And he is sitting alone. Nobody around can take that burden from him, certainly not those meagre flat personalities around. I may even bet he is talking to them in his mind; not in realistic way of course, but as literate people sometimes dialogue with wider set of favourite historical figures.

That is another crucial reason we don't understand his language nor his causes or actions. It's like walking Alley of Fame which only several others crossed before. Nor we, nor anybody from his entourage  can understand how this narcotic of being "Great Emperor" works, simply because so few experienced it.

 

Compared, Kadyrov is much more grounded in reality, despite behaving like mumbling idiot.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

A small digest of posts from couple of RU Nats 

Manpower issue - 500th issue is looks huge and looks like they ran out other sources of manpower. Only draftees are left. 

complain about refusniks even among Special Forces

Quote

You know, there is a small stratum of people who, for whatever reason, have put on military uniforms (some even dressed up as special forces), who receive monetary allowances, but refuse to fight...

Suggestion to send draftees to war

Quote

Today will be a morning of constructive criticism.

Conscripts. They fought in both the Chechen campaigns and Afghanistan. Now is a different time and conscripts are not allowed to fight, but they are staffing combat units. As a result, incomplete units go into battle.

Why do this if conscripts can't go to war anyway? So that on paper we have more brigades and divisions? [Took a long time to realize]
It would be feasible to recruit conscripts [instead] for some airfield security companies somewhere in Siberia and other non-combat units.

Support for sending draftees to war

Quote

I will supplement MY DEAR BROTHER'S post. In fact, conscripts are the best soldiers. Psychologically, it is much easier to prepare a conscript fighter for heavy combat operations, and you can learn how to handle weapons normally after 6 months. It is clear that in this case I am not talking about specialists working on complex equipment, but about infantry/drivers. But it is the infantry, the crews of the guns of the tube and rocket artillery, drives of the tracked vehicles, car drivers who are the backbone of the army and whom it will always need the most. And it doesn't matter if it's the Russian army, American or Chinese.

 

New offensive is not going according to expectations - RU arty is not good, UKR defenses are not weak.

complaint about RU Artillery

Quote

Many experts will spend a lot of terabytes pouring videos or texts [explaining] reasons of failures in one or another operation during SMO, but the main reason is simple and banal: artillery, to put it mildly, does not always hit targets. Tons of scarce ammo are spent simply in fields and forests.

The UAV solves the issue of correcting and detecting the target, but not the accuracy of the guns.

The reason for the poor work of artillery is the lack of training of personnel. Where, after all, the personnel were prepared for [at least] something, a gun or mortar, suppress or hits the target with the second or third shot. When the target is hit, infantry is very much saved, which [we do not have] that much to waste.

Complain about UKR defensive

Quote

On the eve of the Allied forces brought down a barrage of fire on the positions of Ukrainian militants to the west of Donetsk.

There is progress in the direction of Peski and Krasnogorovka.

Our self-propelled guns, tank units and rocket artillery worked on the enemy's fortified areas. Air support was provided by army and assault aircraft.

Despite such a dense fire impact, the fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine erected over eight years allow the militants to provide not weak resistance with the use of heavy weapons.

Ukrainian shells are still exploding in Donetsk, Yasinovataya, Gorlovka. There are civilian casualties. At once, several districts of the capital of the DPR were strewn with anti-personnel mines "Petal" by militants of the Kiev regime.

[Grigb]

update from Girkin VK 

Quote

According to the clarifying data, the enemy on the Kherson front continues to hold a bridgehead in the area of the settlements of Andreevka and Lozovaya (located on the southern bank of the river Ingulets) and controls both of these villages, and also continues attempts to expand the bridgehead, regain control of the village of Belogorka (to the east, above the Ingulets River) and capture the village of Blagodatovka (downstream).

The enemy conducts active artillery fire, uses numerous light UAVs to strike our forward positions, in the area of the settlement of Davydov Ford uses assault aircraft ([using] single "SU"s).

Our troops are preparing to repel the upcoming enemy offensive (while the enemy's activity on the bridgehead through Ingulets is considered as a local attack, quite possibly with distracting purposes). Artillery and aircraft strike at the enemy.

 

[Beleg85]

This is bloody hillarious...apparently some Ukrainian drone operators are using jar pots after popular branch of Polish cucumbers to make a cluster of granades under quadrocopters.

They are from pickles to my mind, but others fiercly opt for them beingsour type. Debates still continue.

https://twitter.com/TSzulc_/status/1552941412316024833

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

7 hours ago, Raptor341 said:

****ing Orcs - - those kinds of people (referring to those who conduct torture executions and physical torture for the purpose of torture) should be dealt with immediately by their own troops in a civilized army. I’m ranting but this kind of activity has no place and only serves to remind me why Ukrainians must win this fight and win it fully. 
 

Rant over. On a side note, does anyone have any recent crowdfunding or support links that they would like to share? 

https://www.mriyaaid.org/ my personal choice, there many others.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So I have been thinking about the fundamental measure in warfare.  In physics we have the meter, the second and the gram - all framed by the speed of light in a vacuum.  Within information theory the famous “bit”.  Chemistry has the “degree”.  In economics we have the mighty $.  Almost every field of study can be boiled down to a few fundamental units.

So what is the fundamental unit of warfare?  And I have not found it yet.  First response is “body count”, or a death…easy.  Problem is that as a unit it does not track. The body count does not directly correlate to the course or outcome in too many cases.  We have had wars of extermination in which body count did become the basic unit, such as the Mongol invasions. 

However, we have had wars with millions of dead, like WW1, but it was not those deaths that determined who won or lost.  WW1 ended due to economic exhaustion, to which loss of human capital was a factor but not the deciding factor.  We have also had endless wars where the body count did not seem to matter, like Vietnam or Afghanistan.

Further we have had wars that were decisively determined with very low body counts, such as the Falklands.

So “killing” appears as a means or way, not an end.  It can give an indication but is not determinative.  If war is a collision of certainty, then it follows that the fundamental unit is a measure of that collision.  Will has to be central to that but Will is an incredibly complex and squishy concept with a lot of layers.  I have played with the idea of a “wit” as placeholder but have not got a bead on what it actually looks like or how to measure it.

Regardless, the biggest problem with “a kill” as the fundamental unit is what does one do when it does not work?  Easy answer is “more killing” up and including “all of them” but we all know that extermination not only has blowback in the community of humanity, it deeply affects internally.  

Killing does affect collective will but it is not a direct relationship, unless you completely remove that collective - and even here it might not work as the “idea” of the will of an exterminated collective can outlive the people who came up with it…like Christianity.

 

The intelligence in the run up to THIS war shows how hard it is to judge this. Exactly nothing has gone according to expectations. We have to remember that in trying to look forward. In Ukraine, as in many wars, the motivations of the two sides are wildly asymmetric, that just makes assessing the whole thing even harder.

Edited July 29, 2022 by dan/california

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

There was a massive expolsion in Olenivka prison/filtration camp, where POW's from AZOV (amon others) were kept. Reportedly 53 people died, both sides accuse each other, with Russians saying it was HIMARS attack.

It seems very unlikely UA did this. They knew locations of almost all filtration camps, and this particular one was almost certainly known before, it had long walls and barbed wires. But it cannot be 100% excluded they simply used them as human shields and UA intel failed. Hard to tell for now.

If thos thoery is right, Russians, being frustrated they cannot defend against new rockets, are seem o be resorting to centuries-long tactics of killing prisoners in return/to protect their depots. Additional benefit for them is they silence uncomfortable defenders of Mariupol, who could potentially serve as source of info on theri crimes. They may even murder prisoners before and then do a cover-up (this version of Biletskij, commander of AZOV movement). Anyway, it has very strong Katyń vibes to me...

Another barbarity.

 

PS>There is reportedly video (not seen it and not gonna to) that castrated prisoner was shot immediatelly after.  Really, Russia is doing literally everything to sabotage its own war effort.

Hence my strong belief that you can't go wrong by killing as many of them as you can.

[Grigb]

You know that I treat information overload seriously and with all these names of settlements flying around it is difficult to understand what is happening. I am trying a new format - with a map. Because everything is better with a map! It does not contain any new information. Just put existing data on the Deep state map (Red and yellow dots are fire - red up to 6h, yellow up to 48h)

 

Tell me if I need to adjust something (tried to crop it but then you do not see bigger picture where it is happening).

[kraze]

6 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

As I said, a combination of all those factors, but in my opinion with killing the enemy as the most important one. In this particular war the Russian mood will start to change when the Ukrainian artillery is starting to slaughter more and more Russian soldiers that can't be replaced and will cause a steady stream of body bags that can't be hidden anymore from public view. Despite all the semantics (not yours) that's what will bring the decison. Killing your enemy.

They all know they have huge losses, they just don't care. russians aren't civilized people and they do not have concept of human life having any value. When a father gladly exchanges a life of his son for a cheap car - it's all you need to know to stop thinking "public view" changes anything.

But killing the enemy is the correct way. Less russians is less that can kill.

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

 

1. No phalanx jokes or comments for the above?  I am rather disappointed.

2. On Aragorn2002's point, I think he was specifically looking at UKR's choice to chip away at the Kherson-region bridges instead of a more concentrated, sudden attack.  In that context, it would seem much better shock value and much less time for the enemy to counter if done swiftly and suddenly.  So if UKR didn't do this, my only idea for why is that they are concerned for the thousands of UKR civilians and want to entice the russians to retreat instead of holding hostages and starving civilians.  Militarily, I think Aragorn's right on wanting the bridges down quickly and w/o warning.

3. Metaphor Management Committee:  While LOTR is the official vehicle for metaphors, Game of Thrones is permitted if done appropiately (like GrigB, above).  Those using GOT metaphors must keep in mind the immense emotional damage caused by season 8 and should avoid content that might trigger a trauma response in millions of angry, hurting people.  

 

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

You know that I treat information overload seriously and with all these names of settlements flying around it is difficult to understand what is happening. I am trying a new format - with a map. Because everything is better with a map! It does not contain any new information. Just put existing data on the Deep state map (Red and yellow dots are fire - red up to 6h, yellow up to 48h)

 

Tell me if I need to adjust something (tried to crop it but then you do not see bigger picture where it is happening).

HURRAY! Ukrainian city names are not easy. Can I make one tiny extra request? Please put a scale on the maps? It really helps.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

with love from Britain 

Couple of fun things in this video.  First, there is the Spartan operating alongside the M270.  Second, it was neat to see the practice rounds suddenly change course, go straight up, then self destruct.  I've not seen that before.

Steve

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Dmitry Vlasov, battalion commander in 6th Separate Tank Brigade:

 

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So I have been thinking about the fundamental measure in warfare.  In physics we have the meter, the second and the gram - all framed by the speed of light in a vacuum.  Within information theory the famous “bit”.  Chemistry has the “degree”.  In economics we have the mighty $.  Almost every field of study can be boiled down to a few fundamental units.

So what is the fundamental unit of warfare?  And I have not found it yet.  First response is “body count”, or a death…easy.  Problem is that as a unit it does not track. The body count does not directly correlate to the course or outcome in too many cases.  We have had wars of extermination in which body count did become the basic unit, such as the Mongol invasions. 

However, we have had wars with millions of dead, like WW1, but it was not those deaths that determined who won or lost.  WW1 ended due to economic exhaustion, to which loss of human capital was a factor but not the deciding factor.  We have also had endless wars where the body count did not seem to matter, like Vietnam or Afghanistan.

Further we have had wars that were decisively determined with very low body counts, such as the Falklands.

So “killing” appears as a means or way, not an end.  It can give an indication but is not determinative.  If war is a collision of certainty, then it follows that the fundamental unit is a measure of that collision.  Will has to be central to that but Will is an incredibly complex and squishy concept with a lot of layers.  I have played with the idea of a “wit” as placeholder but have not got a bead on what it actually looks like or how to measure it.

Regardless, the biggest problem with “a kill” as the fundamental unit is what does one do when it does not work?  Easy answer is “more killing” up and including “all of them” but we all know that extermination not only has blowback in the community of humanity, it deeply affects internally.  

Killing does affect collective will but it is not a direct relationship, unless you completely remove that collective - and even here it might not work as the “idea” of the will of an exterminated collective can outlive the people who came up with it…like Christianity.

 

Interesting thoughts. Maybe you struggle a bit with the concept because you slightly mix up units and quantities (or maybe that is just a thing they beat into me in my first year at university in physics). Metres, kilograms, seconds don't matter, you can just as well use feet, pounds and... ok, alternative time units... ? Anyway, the quantity matters, length, mass, time, etc. It's actually not even really about those. Physics is mostly about energy and the way energy manifests itself. The infamous apple that fell on Newtown's head can be described in terms of the apple heaving some energy state in the gravitational field of earth and converting that into kinetic energy. 

Economy isn't about dollars, euros or yen but ultimately (I think) about resource distribution. Dollars, i.e. currency is a way to measure how many resources get distributed to the owner...).

No clue what the fundamental principle behind war is... I guess forcing ones will onto someone else? Manpower is an important quantity (that doesn't directly translate into force projection, though, which is probably the point here) there and you can measure the change in manpower in kills.

Maybe that helps a bit in further developing your theory.

[Grigb]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

HURRAY! Ukrainian city names are not easy. Can I make one tiny extra request? Please put a scale on the maps? It really helps.

Noted.

[UPDATE] RU Nats often use RU names and sometimes old Soviet names. So, try to use RU Yandex Maps. It knows most of the names. After that look at the left panel where modern UKR name is. Copy and paste it onto the map you need.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Grigb