How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[keas66]

It's kind of amazing that we are still even conversing with Russian patriots on this forum still . It's kind of like  if  the Invasion of Normandy was going on and some folks back in the UK were arguing with Goebels on a chat forum  about whether  the Bombings of German Cities was or was not okay  as a response to German Aggression  . Maybe it is - maybe it isn't  - but if you are involved in  a total  war - the  whole "He said / She said" arguments are a utter waste of time .

Russia started this "Special Operation"  and fingers crossed  they'll  end up  the same way as the Axis forces did  at the end of WW2 - On their knees and begging to surrender .

[FancyCat]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I keep coming back to this at a strategic level.  I have gone on at length that the Western Strategic Centre of Gravity (CoG) is unity and resolve, if that falters this could all end badly.  So, Russia being a sophisticated nation and a master of the art of strategic narrative would try and take the high road with respect to ROEs in this war. To demonstrate that they will play by the rules even if the Nazi-whatever-the-hell-Putin-was-going-on-abouts are the true villains.  This play could plant a small seed of doubt that if nurtured could erode the Allied CoG - "look this is an Eastern European border skrimish" etc

I recall a sentiment that had Germany during the invasion of the Soviet Union, acted like liberators, they might have defeated the Communists, but that would defeat the entire purpose of the invasion, to genocide the people and repopulate the land with Germans. 

I find the same principle applies here, ensuring the Russian military does not conduct war crimes may be beneficial to winning except it is completely opposed to their goal of subjugating the Ukrainian people. Putin awarded the units involved in Bucha with Guards designation. 

1 minute ago, MikeyD said:

I just did a quick search and can find no 150mm artillery in Ukraine service.

Probably the 152mm Soviet guns, and DMS is just saying 150mm.

2 minutes ago, womble said:

I would go so far as to judge the opposite: they have (at least upon occasion) actively tried to inflict civilian casualties.. Not every salvo has been aimed to cause civilian casualties, but it certainly looks like some of them were intended solely for that purpose. There was a point near the beginning of the war where it looked like the published "Do not bombard (because they're hospitals and schools)" list was being used as a target list for RU ordnance.

Or their intel is so egregiously bad that they should just not use artillery at all (especially missiles), if they want to try and minimise civilian casualty collateral damage.

Syria watchers will be quite familiar with Russian war crimes including pursued destruction of humanitarian targets, the utilization of lists provided by international orgs being used instead to bomb, and double tap the sites. This is entirely intended, not new. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian–Syrian_hospital_bombing_campaign

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/world/middleeast/russia-bombing-syrian-hospitals.html

[Der Zeitgeist]

52 minutes ago, DMS said:

Yeah, but you don't notice deaths from this side of a front line. Not because you don't care, but because this deaths are not shown to you. Donetsk is shelled by weeks, dozens of civilians are killed. But nobody posted the photos and this "didn't happen". No offence, Russian media also don't show civilian deaths in Ukraine cities.

This "both sides" whataboutism is entirely pointless in a war where one side is engaged in an aggressive war of conquest against a defending neighbouring country. It's a useless distraction, and a transparent attempt to create moral equivalency where no such thing can exist.

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Colonel Andery Vasilyev, deputy commander of 106th Guard VDV division (Tula), VDV Command, Western Military District

 

Edited July 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Der Zeitgeist]

2 minutes ago, keas66 said:

It's kind of amazing that we are still even conversing with Russian patriots on this forum still . It's kind of like  if  the Invasion of Normandy was going on and some folks back in the UK were arguing with Goebels on a chat forum  about whether  the Bombings of German Cities was or was not okay  as a response to German Aggression  . Maybe it is - maybe it isn't  - but if you are involved in  a total  war - the  whole "He said / She said" arguments are a utter waste of time .

This.

I like to bring up this leaflet the Royal Air Force dropped over Germany during WW2. "Remember with every bomb: Hitler started this war." (The German version rhymes more nicely, though.)

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Colonel Andery Vasilyev, deputy commander of 106th VDV division

 

Wow, the 106th obviously had another really bad day in this war.  Though I'm not sure the soldiers serving under these officers would necessarily agree

Steve

[Lethaface]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Why don't the Russians just use their Terminators on them?  You know, the ones they hyped a couple of months ago.  We haven't seen them mentioned since, so they must be living up to expectations!  And by that I mean our expectations

Seriously, now that I think about it... has anybody on the RU side talked about Terminators since they were first deployed?

Steve

I haven't. Although I think they could be quite useful tactically, give give for CMBS2 :). Well armored double autocannon with AT-14 backup for emergency situations. What's not to like about it?
Not saying they would be bringing anything really special though, even apart from my understanding that there are only ~6 of them in total, considering RU lost 1000+ tanks and much more other AFVs. 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

This "both sides" whataboutism is entirely pointless in a war where one side is engaged in an aggressive war of conquest against a defending neighbouring country. It's a useless distraction, and a transparent attempt to create moral equivalency where no such thing can exist.

Exactly this.  However, I will say that DMS is making some progress.  I don't hear him telling us that Russia isn't fighting a war in Ukraine (which was his claim in 2014/2015) and he just said that he understands that Putin is the only one that can end this war.  So that's good too.  He also didn't claim that Ukraine faked or killed its own people for propaganda purposes, which is always refreshing.  He didn't try confront/dispute the statements of Russia's murderous campaign against Ukrainian civilians, which I take it to mean he now understands things like Bucha were not isolated incidents.

So, overall, I think DMS is coming around to a more factual based world.

Plus, part of his point is indeed valid.  A dead child is a dead child, no matter the soil they were on when killed.  Nobody should be OK with that.  On that level I think we are all in agreement.

Steve

[akd]

On 6/29/2022 at 11:18 AM, akd said:

Rumored (The Sun, so awaiting confirmation) death by GMLRS of Col. Alexey Vasilyev, commander 137th Guards Airborne Regiment, 106th Guards Airborne Division:

@sburke @Kinophile 

Some possible clarification on this one (or alternatively The Sun is reporting on a different guy actually named Alexey, but using a picture of Andrey).  Col. Andrey Vasilyey, a deputy commander in the 106th Guards Airborne Division:

Same article confirms death of Col. Sergei Kuzminov, another deputy commander in the Division already reported here.  Both are said to have been killed on July 9th (but oddly the The Sun report on the death of a “Col. Alexey Vasilyev” was on Jun. 29th).

EDIT: cross-posted with Haiduk, but should help clean up the earlier report.

Edited July 14, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

I haven't. Although I think they could be quite useful tactically, give give for CMBS2 :). Well armored double autocannon with AT-14 backup for emergency situations. What's not to like about it?
Not saying they would be bringing anything really special though, even apart from my understanding that there are only ~6 of them in total, considering RU lost 1000+ tanks and much more other AFVs. 

The numbers of the systems is a fun thing to look at.  People looked at 6 Terminators and thought, rightly, that they wouldn't do squat for the Russian war effort.  Some people looked at 4 HIRAMS (now 8 or 9) and thought the same thing.  But they were wrong.  "I have 6 pistols" is very different than "I have 6 howitzers".

Steve

[sburke]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Colonel Andery Vasilyev, deputy commander of 106th Guard VDV division (Tula), VDV Command, Western Military District

 

huh that is 2 from the 106th today..

[Lethaface]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The numbers of the systems is a fun thing to look at.  People looked at 6 Terminators and thought, rightly, that they wouldn't do squat for the Russian war effort.  Some people looked at 4 HIRAMS (now 8 or 9) and thought the same thing.  But they were wrong.  "I have 6 pistols" is very different than "I have 6 howitzers".

Steve

Especially if these howitzers bring a new capability to the table.

To be honest I was a bit skeptical about the overall impact limited numbers CEASAR/HIMARS/PzH2000/KRABS etc would have. But the amount of exploding stuff in RU's rear is quite clear to see even from space ;-).

To me looks like Ukraine is calling Russia's frontline artillery war and raising it with deep precision strikes against their ability to grind/wage war (logistics/command/infrastructure/airdefense/etc).

Edited July 14, 2022 by Lethaface

[Huba]

So apparently Russians are moving their ammo dumps further away from the frontlines already, radical denectralisation wasn't even tried. @Haiduk or @kraze, could you be so kind and tell us what he said precisely?

Looks like it's time to battle test the initial production batch of ER-GMLRS (or skip straight to ATACMS...).

 

[FancyCat]

Looks like Russia is finally getting over its shock and redoubling their efforts in the hybrid war. 

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

29 minutes ago, keas66 said:

It's kind of amazing that we are still even conversing with Russian patriots on this forum still . It's kind of like  if  the Invasion of Normandy was going on and some folks back in the UK were arguing with Goebels on a chat forum  about whether  the Bombings of German Cities was or was not okay  as a response to German Aggression.

False analogy. DMS is a longtime member of this forum, respected for his contributions to our gaming community.

I don't personally find his whataboutism useful in this instance, as there is no moral equivalency to the war in the disputed Donetsk territory at all -- I think @The_Capt has the right of it here, this is just a murderous and stupid tantrum -- but I still want to hear his POV, and the rebuttals.

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

There is a lot wrong with the whole RU culture. But the thing is painting everything in black is not an accurate description. There is black (a lot of black actually), but there is also white and there are a lot more different shades of grey in between.

 

This thread is good. Like really good. I cannot vouch for the deep historical part but personally I agree with it.

That being said Galeev view is view of intellectual. As result in my personal opinion, he might overemphasize the significance of cultural wars. It is the low level thugs that do the killing, and they have little idea who Schevchenko was or what he wrote. But that's my personal opinion and I might be wrong. 

Indeed, every apple tree has rotten apples and good apples. Corruption is contagious, at times some trees will be badly hit. But all are still apple trees.

Edited July 14, 2022 by Lethaface

[LongLeftFlank]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Indeed, every apple tree has rotten apples and good apples. Corruption is contagious, at times some trees will be badly hit. But all are still apple trees.

Yes, the stupidest thing is that with the global commodities price windfall of 2006-2009, Russia was well positioned to diversify itself into a software and technology services hub, with millions of numerate people and solidifying ties to the EU.  On that path, it might have moved to middle income status in the 2010s; the Germans and French would have happily played along.

Instead, the mafiyas and siloviki looted the resource sector and legacy manufacturing and then Putin tried to put the Soviet Humpty Dumpty back together again by force, with the horrid results we see.

[DMS]

22 minutes ago, keas66 said:

It's kind of amazing that we are still even conversing with Russian patriots on this forum still . It's kind of like  if  the Invasion of Normandy was going on and some folks back in the UK were arguing with Goebels on a chat forum  about whether  the Bombings of German Cities was or was not okay  as a response to German Aggression  . Maybe it is - maybe it isn't  - but if you are involved in  a total  war - the  whole "He said / She said" arguments are a utter waste of time .

This escalation logic is flawed. People of a country are not a one whole. "Collective fault" is previous century stuff. Yes, bombing of Dresden was a mistake, like relocation of Germans from Konigsberg.

My point was not "whataboutism", like "it's ok to hit civilians in Vinnitsya because civilians were hit in Donetsk", please. It was about sorrowful inequality of life value because of media coverage, that is it.

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Exactly this.  However, I will say that DMS is making some progress.  I don't hear him telling us that Russia isn't fighting a war in Ukraine (which was his claim in 2014/2015) and he just said that he understands that Putin is the only one that can end this war.  So that's good too.  He also didn't claim that Ukraine faked or killed its own people for propaganda purposes, which is always refreshing.  He didn't try confront/dispute the statements of Russia's murderous campaign against Ukrainian civilians, which I take it to mean he now understands things like Bucha were not isolated incidents.

 I didn't write that Russia wasn't fighting, I did downscale invading force. I had impression that RA moved in only 2 BTGs (excluding special forces and volunteers) in August 2014, that was wrong. Language barrier distorts sense, I guess. Everyone thought that only Russian army was fighting, I wrote about 2 BTGs, that looked like "denial". But DPR and LPR forces were and are important, as this war showed, they fought sometimes better than RA. Ignoring them as a fighting force was wrong.

[Huba]

Just now, LongLeftFlank said:

Yes, the stupidest thing is that with the global commodities price windfall of 2006-2009, Russia was well positioned to diversify itself into a software and technology services hub, with millions of numerate people and solidifying ties to the EU.  On that path, it might have moved to middle income status in the 2010s; the Germans and French would have happily played along.

Instead, the mafiyas and siloviki looted the resource sector and legacy manufacturing and then Putin tried to put the Soviet Humpty Dumpty back together again by force, with the horrid results we see.

That's the saddest thing in recent (European) history. Withe their resources, industry, people, Russia could be the most prosperous country in the world if managed sensibly, to everyone's benefit, but instead we are back to this neo-imperial BS

[Lethaface]

15 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yes, the stupidest thing is that with the global commodities price windfall of 2006-2009, Russia was well positioned to diversify itself into a software and technology services hub, with millions of numerate people and solidifying ties to the EU.  On that path, it might have moved to middle income status in the 2010s; the Germans and French would have happily played along.

Instead, the mafiyas and siloviki looted the resource sector and legacy manufacturing and then Putin tried to put the Soviet Humpty Dumpty back together again by force, with the horrid results we see.

Mafia state indeed and unfortunately that's not unique. Somewhere I feel there is a missed opportunity for the West/Nato as well, post USSR collapse.
But missed opportunities don't equal failed responsibilities, in my view there is no doubt who's to blame for (this) war of aggression.

[sross112]

2 hours ago, womble said:

I would go so far as to judge the opposite: they have (at least upon occasion) actively tried to inflict civilian casualties.. Not every salvo has been aimed to cause civilian casualties, but it certainly looks like some of them were intended solely for that purpose. There was a point near the beginning of the war where it looked like the published "Do not bombard (because they're hospitals and schools)" list was being used as a target list for RU ordnance.

Or their intel is so egregiously bad that they should just not use artillery at all (especially missiles), if they want to try and minimise civilian casualty collateral damage.

I think there is a combination of things going on. I totally agree that it looks like they actively targeted civilian buildings and civilians themselves (train station, hospitals, etc). With their track history it is about 99.9% likely that they did. To top it off though I believe that a lot of the hits on civilian targets are simply due to them grossly missing legitimate targets. Like the hit on the shopping center next to the factory. We have a hard time understanding how you can miss a factory when we have been putting guided munitions down ventilation shafts for more than 30 years, but the Russian Army showed us that such a thing is possible. Not just possible, but repeatable time and again. Lack of accuracy and precision.

It's not just the army either. Look at the video of the RuAF bombing run on Snake Island. 25% hit rate on an Island. An ISLAND for &$@%s sake! In uncontested air space and taking no defensive fire they still managed to miss with 3 of the 4 bombs they dropped. This isn't a WW2 Marauder after a Japanese destroyer cruising at flank speed and shooting every gun it has at the attacking plane. This is 2022 and they missed an ISLAND 75% of the time!

Again, not defending them or trying to diminish the ongoing atrocity perpetrated by Russia. Just thinking that 3/4 of their strikes were probably actually meant to hit something else. I guess it all comes around the circle again to the RA sucks at war, but if the shoe fits.

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

That's the saddest thing in recent (European) history. Withe their resources, industry, people, Russia could be the most prosperous country in the world if managed sensibly, to everyone's benefit, but instead we are back to this neo-imperial BS

Not gonna happen for several generations even in most favourable circumstances. Too much of Russian collective identity is connected to imperialism. Even much more advanced and less bellicose civil societies have problems running pluralistic stable political systems.

 

2 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

This "both sides" whataboutism is entirely pointless in a war where one side is engaged in an aggressive war of conquest against a defending neighbouring country. It's a useless distraction, and a transparent attempt to create moral equivalency where no such thing can exist.

Kremlin propaganda weights heavily on relativism and inablity to see proportions of things. It always puzzled me in Russian mentality, frankly- while Western consciousness was usually gravitating toward achievieng rational balance ("centre"), Russians seem to dwell on paradoxes and borderlines. They collectivelly really at some level stayed medieval, when everything between Heaven and Hell was malliable, negotiable and wortless. In such manicheic world every cruelty is real, every conspiracy imaginable; "state of things" is generally impossible to rationally comprehend nor understand.

That's why they so massively believe (which does not mean 100% support) in any absurd state propaganda cooked for them. Ukrainians crucifying kids in Donbas? Sure, why not. Defenders of Mariupol shelling themselves by thousands? Yeah, entirely believable. 80% or the world suddenly becoming Nazi conspiracy? Just connect dots...

No strange that Russian propaganda catches to so many people in our "liquid" postmodern world seen through social media lens. And when reality does not exist, state power is the only thing that stands between society and chaos- It's cornerstone of society. Soviet Union with its absurd amount of repression and violence was only peak of that very long, historical feeling. Its tytanic geopolitical fight with US actually correspond very well to manicheic vision two, constantly struggling powers in the world.

And if somebody think this vision is too much out-of-the-world anthropology trying to cover basic political opportunism- let's imagine Putin alienated in his apartments during covid epidemic, sorrounded by Russian historical books...

Edited July 14, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

18 hours ago, FancyCat said:

One thing I do note, 1917 and the collapse of the Russian army, there was much, much more social discontent domestically, and right now not even the more positive scenarios envisioned at the beginning of the year, like protest movements for peace are existing. As much as we hope for a collapse, 1917 looks quite impossible now and in the near future. Maybe later it develops but we shall see.

But Russia currently has at least as much potential for severe domestic discontent as it did in 1917. Putin is trying to fundamentally change the deal he offers the Russian people in the middle of a losing war. The old deal was pretty simple. There will be economic growth and stability. You will not dare to think about politics, and the FSB will not feel the need to think about you. 

The new deal is that you must think about Putin and his imperial dream all the time. You must work twice as hard for half as much, until next year, which will be worse. Oh and any male between 15 and 60 can be drafted at random through various back door schemes and sent to the front inn a losing war. Complainers get an instantaneous one way trip to Siberia. 

This would be a difficult shift for virtually any government in human history, much less the decrepit mafia state that is Putin's Russia.

[FancyCat]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

But Russia currently has at least as much potential for severe domestic discontent as it did in 1917. Putin is trying to fundamentally change the deal he offers the Russian people in the middle of a losing war. The old deal was pretty simple. There will be economic growth and stability. You will not dare to think about politics, and the FSB will not feel the need to think about you. 

The new deal is that you must think about Putin and his imperial dream all the time. You must work twice as hard for half as much, until next year, which will be worse. Oh and any male between 15 and 60 can be drafted at random through various back door schemes and sent to the front inn a losing war. Complainers get an instantaneous one way trip to Siberia. 

This would be a difficult shift for virtually any government in human history, much less the decrepit mafia state that is Putin's Russia.

Can't disagree with that. Hopefully this can end sooner than later. 

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, dan/california said:

But Russia currently has at least as much potential for severe domestic discontent as it did in 1917. Putin is trying to fundamentally change the deal he offers the Russian people in the middle of a losing war. The old deal was pretty simple. There will be economic growth and stability. You will not dare to think about politics, and the FSB will not feel the need to think about you. 

The new deal is that you must think about Putin and his imperial dream all the time. You must work twice as hard for half as much, until next year, which will be worse. Oh and any male between 15 and 60 can be drafted at random through various back door schemes and sent to the front inn a losing war. Complainers get an instantaneous one way trip to Siberia. 

This would be a difficult shift for virtually any government in human history, much less the decrepit mafia state that is Putin's Russia.

The interesting thing about Russia in the war is the ideological vacuum.  There are not great ideas here.  They definitely have nationalism and a weak tea “I will protect you from NATO” but lacks the power that communism or monarchy had back in 1917 by a wide margin.  Putin has worked hard for over 20 years to build a personal cult but he in nowhere near the level of the Kim King’s of NK.  Nor does Putin have a religion to hold everything together because it is the “will of God” such as they have in theocracies such as Iran.  Nor does Russia have democracy or an idea of liberal freedom.

So what ideology does Russia have beyond paranoia and a general zeitgeist of revelling in misery?  Maybe that will be enough but I think it is weak glue in the absence of an existential crisis.  Putin has, and will continue to make the argument that this is an existential crisis but it is a weak argument.  As the social lattice in Russia comes under increasing stress I have to wonder how long the social contract will hold.  Russians have proven they can take a lot, under the right circumstances; however, without a crystalline idea to hold them together outside the bonds of their intimate communities and micro-social spaces, I think they are in fact more vulnerable than many think.

Edited July 15, 2022 by The_Capt