How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Not going to waste my time disproving an initial extremely inaccurate assessment. 

What I am going to do is to put several quotes:

1. Pro-war Nat Girkin: RU population will stop supporting the war because they do not really understand why RU started the war
2. Pro-war Nat military expert Maxim Klimov (42:46) : ...Regional high-ranking officials discussed the drain [loss] in Ukraine
3. Anti-war RU Na Nesmyan: ...only 3 percent of respondents said they would be happy to unite the territories in any form...the goals of the entire event [SMO] are perceived distantly and indirectly by the absolute majority of the population.

It is very clear that there is no deep public support for the war. There is shallow and fragile support of convenience. 

it doesn't matter what russians say or write (e.g. lie). Reality is that they support every single war they start wholeheartedly and proof is that since 1991 there was not a single anti-war movement despite wars in: Moldova, Chechnya (twice), Azerbaijan, Georgia(twice), Syria, Ukraine and many other more minor stuff like russian troops exterminating Armenian parliament or taking part in Srebrenica massacre.

On the other hand there are constant marches and events supporting every single war they start.

Today russians murdered another civilian crowd in a peaceful city. Guess how many russians did something to stop that?

0.

Words mean nothing. Only actions do. And actions prove that russians are pro-war.

Edited July 14, 2022 by kraze

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder when this footage was first released.  If it was early February that would make sense.  Any time after that, when everybody knew the attack had been a complete failure, would not make sense at all.

Steve

For RU the attack was complete sucess. It just happened that afterward some units suffered what can be described as heavy casualties. 

[Haiduk]

As retaliation on HIMARSed ammo dumps and command centers, Russia strikes on our cities. 

1. Chasiv Yar town, near Bakhmut, Donetsk oblast. On 9th of July two Iskanders hit directly in dormitorium, one hit nearby. The half of building was ruined. In present time 48 dead found, 9 wounded resqued. Russians claimed "in this house were deployed 300 nationalists, which were destroyed by precision strike"

2. Mykolaiv today. At the dawn Russian shelled the city in uncommon way - with SAM S-300, which has optional cpability of the work at ground targets. I doubt this is because Russians have a real lack of missiles, probably just a "combat training" to use S-300 in such role. Reportedly several citizens were wounded

On the video S-300 missiles hit school area (probably Russians thought UKR soldiers deployed there)

3. About 11:00 of morning Russian submarine launched 5 Kalibr missiles on Vinnytsia. This city is a place of UKR Air Forces HQ. But Russian missiles hit not military objects, but "Officers house" and squre near this building. "Officers house" uses long time ago as concert hall and today at 18:00 a concert was planned. Two missiles were shot down by our AD, but three struck the city.

Parts of Kalibr, being shot down on approach

 

At least one missile hit Officers House (or nearby)

On the photo - one of the sections of Officers House, badly damaged by missile hit

Other missile hit the parking of tall office center across the squre from Officers House, caused mass victims. 

Private diagnostic center NeiroMed was completely destroyed - all personnel and visitors reportedly were killed or heavy injured. Many people were kileld on parking - about 30 cars burned and more than 20 damaged.

On the photo burned NeiroMed

And new terrible symbol of this war - 4-year girl Liza, killed by this strike. Her mother heavy wounded, but survived (PS. already has died in hospytal). She posted in Instagram last own photo with a daughter before several minutes to death. Near the dead girl a teared off foot lays - many people were teared on parts by explosion, so only 6 dead could recognize, rest need DNA tests.

Now is knowingly about 23 dead (including 3 children), 117 injured and traumatized (among them 66 hospitalized, from theese 66 - 29 are heavy and 5 critical). 

Edited July 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

I saw the uncensored version of the photo of that dead child today. Truly hard to even look at.

We need to provide Ukraine all the weapons necessary to end this war as quickly as possible.

[DMS]

6 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I saw the uncensored version of the photo of that dead child today. Truly hard to even look at.

Children are dying since 2014. I saw a lot of photos. It's awful to realise that people see only things that media show to them. Lives have different values. If media show this particular death - people sorrow. Media don't say about 100 another deaths - people don't care. Child in Vinnitsya is a human being, child in Donetsk is like Palestinian child, acceptable "collateral damage".

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, DMS said:

Children are dying since 2014. I saw a lot of photos. It's awful to realise that people see only things that media show to them. Lives have different values. If media show this particular death - people sorrow. Media don't say about 100 another deaths - people don't care. Child in Vinnitsya is a human being, child in Donetsk is like Palestinian child, acceptable "collateral damage".

wtf a new level for you and by level I mean a lower level.  NOBODY here thinks the death of any child is just acceptable.  The responsibility for that death though is the aholes that started this war.

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, DMS said:

Children are dying since 2014. I saw a lot of photos. It's awful to realise that people see only things that media show to them. Lives have different values. If media show this particular death - people sorrow. Media don't say about 100 another deaths - people don't care. Child in Vinnitsya is a human being, child in Donetsk is like Palestinian child, acceptable "collateral damage".

Your country's, your people's, and your orcish chieftain's doing, every single one of them. For shame, for shame...

[Markus86]

4 minutes ago, DMS said:

Children are dying since 2014. I saw a lot of photos. It's awful to realise that people see only things that media show to them. Lives have different values. If media show this particular death - people sorrow. Media don't say about 100 another deaths - people don't care. Child in Vinnitsya is a human being, child in Donetsk is like Palestinian child, acceptable "collateral damage".

Wow ... you leave me speachless. You really expressed your sympathy for this dead child in such a nice way. 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, DMS said:

Children are dying since 2014. I saw a lot of photos. It's awful to realise that people see only things that media show to them. Lives have different values. If media show this particular death - people sorrow. Media don't say about 100 another deaths - people don't care. Child in Vinnitsya is a human being, child in Donetsk is like Palestinian child, acceptable "collateral damage".

No, that isn't correct at all.  They are both Human Beings and deserve to not be killed.  And if Putin stopped the war he started in 2014, then both these children would be alive today.  Russia is ultimately responsible for all deaths related to this war because without Russia there would be no war.

Also, it's pretty clear that Ukraine tries to not kill civilians.  Because if killing civilians was something they are trying to do, they aren't doing it very well.  Russia, on the other hand, goes out of its way to kills civilians.  Sometimes with a bullet to the head, sometimes with an artillery shell.  And even sometimes those civilians killed are on its territory, sacrificed for false flag operations.  To a terrorist state, like Russia, civilian life means nothing.  The life of that Donetsk child is more valued by people outside of Russia than by the Russian state itself.

And therefore, in that sense, the two are not equal.  One child was killed by a murderous terrorist state, the other one by a country trying desperately to not be its victim.

Steve

[DMS]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

wtf a new level for you and by level I mean a lower level.  NOBODY here thinks the death of any child is just acceptable.  The responsibility for that death though is the aholes that started this war.

Yeah, but you don't notice deaths from this side of a front line. Not because you don't care, but because this deaths are not shown to you. Donetsk is shelled by weeks, dozens of civilians are killed. But nobody posted the photos and this "didn't happen". No offence, Russian media also don't show civilian deaths in Ukraine cities.

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, DMS said:

Children are dying since 2014. I saw a lot of photos. It's awful to realise that people see only things that media show to them. Lives have different values. If media show this particular death - people sorrow. Media don't say about 100 another deaths - people don't care. Child in Vinnitsya is a human being, child in Donetsk is like Palestinian child, acceptable "collateral damage".

Hello, buddy! Missed you. Would you like to discuss RU torture and execution conveyor for UKR civilians set up by RU ataman Kozytsin in Luhansk in 2014?

I mean you like to scream about kids' deaths you always attribute to UKR but for some reason you always run away from fact that UKR side was fighting against RU torture and execution conveyors set up for them by invading RU side. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, DMS said:

Yeah, but you don't notice deaths from this side of a front line. Not because you don't care, but because this deaths are not shown to you. Donetsk is shelled by weeks, dozens of civilians are killed. But nobody posted the photos and this "didn't happen". No offence, Russian media also don't show civilian deaths in Ukraine cities.

Yup, and there's been evidence shown that the shellings (at least some of them) came from Russian positions precisely because Ukraine wasn't killing civilians like Russia does.

The horrors of war, unfortunately, produce civilian casualties.  The ammo dumps that got "clapped" in Russian occupied areas no doubt caused civilian casualties.  But how many more would have been caused if Russia was allowed to use those munitions to shell civilian areas?  Most definitely more.  So in the end Ukraine is doing what it can to mitigate Russia's murderous activities.  Would be much better if Russia just ended the war so nobody else had to die, but that's not going to happen.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, Grigb said:

Hello, buddy! Missed you. Would you like to discuss RU torture and execution conveyor for UKR civilians set up by RU ataman Kozytsin in Luhansk in 2014?

I mean you like to scream about kids' deaths you always attribute to UKR but for some reason you always run away from fact that UKR side was fighting against RU torture and execution conveyors set up for them by invading RU side. 

Or things like the blatant 2015 rocket attack on Mariupol.  The 31 dead and 108 wounded civilians at the time seemed horrible, but compared to the nearly 20,000 killed when Russia flattened the city a few months ago... doesn't seem so bad by comparison.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2015_Mariupol_rocket_attack

Steve

[keas66]

You enlisted yet DMS ?

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

It's not meant to signal anything. It's all diplo-speak.

The important thing to note is what's *not* being said. There's no support for Putin's position on Ukraine or for any significant aid to Moscow's war effort. So far, Putin has Tehran and just about nobody else. 

[DMS]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Also, it's pretty clear that Ukraine tries to not kill civilians.

Donetsk city is shelled by 150mm artillery. It's hard to avoid killing civilians using this type of weapons. Yes, Ukrainians are desperate, but still they should use more precise weapons or avoid shelling targets in densely populated urban areas. (Like Russian army must.) Some people will die in any case because of this war that was started by Putin, but why not to minimise this number using Tochkas, HIMARS instead of "dumm" 150mm arty?  

And please don't read this like any sort of advocating of this strike in Vinnitsya, using of cruise missiles is risky because of AA defence that shoots them above the city and also must be avoided in urban areas.

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Would be much better if Russia just ended the war so nobody else had to die, but that's not going to happen.

Sure, who can argue this.

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[billbindc]

19 minutes ago, DMS said:

Yeah, but you don't notice deaths from this side of a front line. Not because you don't care, but because this deaths are not shown to you. Donetsk is shelled by weeks, dozens of civilians are killed. But nobody posted the photos and this "didn't happen". No offence, Russian media also don't show civilian deaths in Ukraine cities.

Dictatorships are far more dependent on apathy and disinterest than they are on enthusiasm. As above.

[asurob]

36 minutes ago, DMS said:

Children are dying since 2014. I saw a lot of photos. It's awful to realise that people see only things that media show to them. Lives have different values. If media show this particular death - people sorrow. Media don't say about 100 another deaths - people don't care. Child in Vinnitsya is a human being, child in Donetsk is like Palestinian child, acceptable "collateral damage".

Gee I wonder who started this war in 2014 and who is responsible for every single death since then...certainly wasn't Ukraine.  

[Grigb]

For the record - RU propaganda (and armatures like my buddy) like to lie that UKR were shelling Donets for years. Except they were not. To see that let's look at RU propaganda.

For example, this is recent RU video (July 10) and here is an interesting quote

Quote

Donetsk residents note that earlier Ukraine fired only at the outskirts, and now rockets arrive in the city center: "now you can't go out quietly — they are hitting everywhere."

UKR started hitting RU targets at Donetsk center only several days ago. But when did they start hitting Donets at all? 

Let's watch another video from June 10. 

 

Here RU terrorist with nickname Abkhaz stated that UKR side hitting Donets for 1.5 week. Basically, UKR side started to hit Donetsk targets after receiving western accurate artillery systems. 

Do I need to add anything else?

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, DMS said:

Children are dying since 2014. I saw a lot of photos. It's awful to realise that people see only things that media show to them. Lives have different values. If media show this particular death - people sorrow. Media don't say about 100 another deaths - people don't care. Child in Vinnitsya is a human being, child in Donetsk is like Palestinian child, acceptable "collateral damage".

You guys remember that quote from the UA solider in the field early on in this thing?  "I can't believe how f#cking stupid they are?"

I keep coming back to this at a strategic level.  I have gone on at length that the Western Strategic Centre of Gravity (CoG) is unity and resolve, if that falters this could all end badly.  So, Russia being a sophisticated nation and a master of the art of strategic narrative would try and take the high road with respect to ROEs in this war. To demonstrate that they will play by the rules even if the Nazi-whatever-the-hell-Putin-was-going-on-abouts are the true villains.  This play could plant a small seed of doubt that if nurtured could erode the Allied CoG - "look this is an Eastern European border skrimish" etc

Or....

Toss missiles around like a drunken frat boy demonstrating that he can both hurl empty beer bottles and throw up on himself simultaneously.  Now maybe Russia is full-on "no body likes me, everybody hates me, so I am gonna eat worms...and commit egregious war crimes anyway."  But all of this is actually reinforcing their opponents strategic center of gravity...it is shoring up the resolve of the West.  A dead soldier is supposed to happen, a dead little girl with blue running shoes is not.  Russia's inability to "get with the program" is frankly baffling.  

Collateral damage happens, it is the tragic truth of warfare since the beginning; however, nations are judged on how hard they work to avoid it.  And as far as I can tell right now Russia hasn't tried at all.  This on top of the pretty obvious war crimes that happened already in this war is literally guaranteeing that 1) more weapons, money and munitions keep flowing from the West, and 2) there is no renormalization after this...so enjoy being a rump state of China...seriously, start teaching your kids Mandarin.  

I can't believe how f#cking stupid they are, indeed.

[MikeyD]

I just did a quick search and can find no 150mm artillery in Ukraine service.

[Grigb]

21 minutes ago, DMS said:

Donetsk city is shelled by 150mm artillery. It's hard to avoid killing civilians using this type of weapons.

No, it is not if you use proper artillery. But the question is why do you hide among civilians?

 

21 minutes ago, DMS said:

 Yes, Ukrainians are desperate, but still they should use more precise weapons or avoid shelling targets in densely populated urban areas.

No, they are not desperate. Yes, they are using western accurate arty systems. That's why they have started to hit Donetsk targets only recently.

 

21 minutes ago, DMS said:

(Like Russian army must.) Some people will die in any case because of this war that was started by Putin, but why not to minimise this number using Tochkas, HIMARS instead of "dumm" 150mm arty?  

May be because you need to find out that Western arty is not dumb?

Edited July 14, 2022 by Grigb

[womble]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And as far as I can tell right now Russia hasn't tried at all.

I would go so far as to judge the opposite: they have (at least upon occasion) actively tried to inflict civilian casualties.. Not every salvo has been aimed to cause civilian casualties, but it certainly looks like some of them were intended solely for that purpose. There was a point near the beginning of the war where it looked like the published "Do not bombard (because they're hospitals and schools)" list was being used as a target list for RU ordnance.

Or their intel is so egregiously bad that they should just not use artillery at all (especially missiles), if they want to try and minimise civilian casualty collateral damage.

[Lethaface]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

(On one hand I feel quite silly contesting a military man's judgement, I know nothing of military matters, on the other hand, [...]

It's a good thing to doubt oneself imo, at the same time qualifications don't guarantee sound judgement so never assume statements/opinions for facts.

Edited July 14, 2022 by Lethaface